Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by azure

its the classic keyboard warrior canadian approach.

Sit here and tell everyone about how we can't do this, can't do that, how this is not like that and that is not like this. All while literally not having a frickin' clue what is actually going on.

lol.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by Azure

To say the least.

"We are concerned about long-term environmental affects on our land."

"Here is another $10m payment."

"We have studied the long-term affects and feel that the risks have been mitigated."

This obviously isn't a fair representation of the hundreds of different consultations that take place every year in Canada.

But how else are First Nations supposed to do the cost-benefit analysis for these projects for their communities? And hiw else are energy companies supposed to compensate them for environmental damage and disruption of aboriginal hunting rights etc caused by these projects?

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Cappy

That Kenney tweet is hilarious to me.

If 15th century Europe had twitter, Ottoman sultans would be sharing the same graphics.

It has been cheaper to ship cargo over the ocean for centuries. It has largely been safer since the 19th century, and now its pretty much void of environmental regulations

Shipping cargo over the ocean has been cheaper than... what for centuries? Safer than what? Are you suggesting shipping energy products through a pipeline is somehow similar to overland shipping using trucks, trains and caravans of camels?

Put another way, WTF are you talking about?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Shipping cargo over the ocean has been cheaper than... what for centuries? Safer than what? Are you suggesting shipping energy products through a pipeline is somehow similar to overland shipping using trucks, trains and caravans of camels?

Put another way, WTF are you talking about?

https://www.reuters.com/markets/comm...ia-2024-01-10/

Here is one reference. Shipping prices are very high right now but to ship 2 million barrels from the Gulf to Asia is about $5 USD per barrel. Shipping from Hardisty to Texas on Enbridge is about 10 CAD
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investin...w-competition/

The distance from Texas gulf to India by flight is about 14,000km. Hardisty to Texas about 3500kms

Shipping oil by ship is cheap.

[Torture]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Bingo. Also in BC, because development requires BC gov and they’re idiots, it’s started to slide into approval not consultation.

People here wouldn’t believe what industry is dealing with right now in NEBC. Total gong show and has blown the doors off the arguments being made in this thread.

Where’s the future of Montney development in Canada? Moreso in Alberta or BC? And we have a band of 200 people up there causing a mass clusterF of epic proportions and then people in this thread scrambling all over themselves to argue our way into why that’s right and justified and makes sense. Classically Canadian, in spite of geopolitical strategy that could improve the lives of >35 million people. But no please do tell us how all this makes sense and we should stick with how it’s all working.

Constitutions can be amended and deals can be negotiated with FN groups too, this isn’t some impossible task. Difficult? Yes. Needed? Yes.

LNG Canada phase 2 is literally at risk but we have people arguing the dumbest ####.

Building these projects in BC is a special example because most of them are on unceded territory. In the rest of Canada there were treaties signed to give the land to Canada, thats not the case in BC. (arguably signed under duress and not delivered on but....)

Consultation does not equal a veto. But in BC it's even messier.

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by GGG

https://www.reuters.com/markets/comm...ia-2024-01-10/

Here is one reference. Shipping prices are very high right now but to ship 2 million barrels from the Gulf to Asia is about $5 USD per barrel. Shipping from Hardisty to Texas on Enbridge is about 10 CAD
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investin...w-competition/

The distance from Texas gulf to India by flight is about 14,000km. Hardisty to Texas about 3500kms

Shipping oil by ship is cheap.

I guess the oil has to get to the ship somehow…. So that’s not free either.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Torture

Building these projects in BC is a special example because most of them are on unceded territory. In the rest of Canada there were treaties signed to give the land to Canada, thats not the case in BC. (arguably signed under duress and not delivered on but....)

Consultation does not equal a veto. But in BC it's even messier.

Agree with you on all of your post. Correct. It’s also a function of how the BC gov interacts and addresses its own responsibilities.

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by GGG

https://www.reuters.com/markets/comm...ia-2024-01-10/

Here is one reference. Shipping prices are very high right now but to ship 2 million barrels from the Gulf to Asia is about $5 USD per barrel. Shipping from Hardisty to Texas on Enbridge is about 10 CAD
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investin...w-competition/

The distance from Texas gulf to India by flight is about 14,000km. Hardisty to Texas about 3500kms

Shipping oil by ship is cheap.

Could expand on this for fun, to factor in some other costs.

~14,000nmi shipping route from the Gulf to India (not going through any canals, following the Cape Route, but it will end up being cheaper anyway), 15kn average speed, equates to a ~78 day round trip.

At 830,000bbl per day capacity, KXL's capacity could fill a tanker every 2.4 days. Assuming 25% of the fleet is in port for maintenance at any given time, you'd need 43 ships to ensure constant flow of oil from the Gulf to India the entire year, or ~$5.2B in capital costs to ship it that 14,000nmi (26,000km) route ($120M per VLCC).

KXL's projected cost in 2021 for 1900km was $8B.

So can confirm, shipping oil by ship is cheap.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

I guess the oil has to get to the ship somehow…. So that’s not free either.

Absolutely.

If you take this back to the Kenny tweet about east, I’d have to look back at but I believe the proposed toll to St. John was $16 (spot) compared with the $10 or so of the shorter lines. So that leaves about $6 a barrel to barge around the ocean which doesn’t seem to crazy.

But I think the general point was shipping over oceans or through rivers has always been cheaper when possible.

[Amethyst]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

And Smith probably has worked harder and more effective for Alberta and Canada than anyone else. Take your ignorant language somewhere else.

I can't take anyone seriously who thinks Smith has worked for anything or anyone except herself.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Shipping cargo over the ocean has been cheaper than... what for centuries? Safer than what? Are you suggesting shipping energy products through a pipeline is somehow similar to overland shipping using trucks, trains and caravans of camels?

Put another way, WTF are you talking about?

I’m talking about the kenney tweet and the suggestion that a simple overland construction is so much easier cheaper and better than ships. It’s almost never been the case.

With pipelines, you have to actually build the thing which will always prove to be an issue regardless of nation vs loading it on a ship

[flamesfever]

Originally Posted by Amethyst

I can't take anyone seriously who thinks Smith has worked for anything or anyone except herself.

nm

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Bingo. Also in BC, because development requires BC gov and they’re idiots, it’s started to slide into approval not consultation.

People here wouldn’t believe what industry is dealing with right now in NEBC. Total gong show and has blown the doors off the arguments being made in this thread.

Where’s the future of Montney development in Canada? Moreso in Alberta or BC? And we have a band of 200 people up there causing a mass clusterF of epic proportions and then people in this thread scrambling all over themselves to argue our way into why that’s right and justified and makes sense. Classically Canadian, in spite of geopolitical strategy that could improve the lives of >35 million people. But no please do tell us how all this makes sense and we should stick with how it’s all working.

Constitutions can be amended and deals can be negotiated with FN groups too, this isn’t some impossible task. Difficult? Yes. Needed? Yes.

LNG Canada phase 2 is literally at risk but we have people arguing the dumbest ####.

Oil and gas development in NE BC is akin to dealing with the mafia. The BC government allowed that to happen.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Cappy

I’m talking about the kenney tweet and the suggestion that a simple overland construction is so much easier cheaper and better than ships. It’s almost never been the case.

With pipelines, you have to actually build the thing which will always prove to be an issue regardless of nation vs loading it on a ship

What is it with folks like you and making #### up. No one said it's so much cheaper.



https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesco...eline-or-boat/

In the U.S., 100% of our natural gas is shipped by pipeline. 70% of crude oil and petroleum products are shipped by pipeline. 23% of oil shipments are on tankers and barges over water. Trucking only accounts for 4% of shipments, and rail for a mere 3%. In Canada, it’s even more lopsided. Almost all (97%) of natural gas and petroleum products are transported by pipelines (Canadian Energy Pipeline Association).

Clearly Cappy knows better than the gas and petroleum industry building all these silly costly pipelines instead of boats...on land.

We don't use boats to get oil from the Alberta oil sands to the Gulf refineries...because we have pipelines in between. Shortage in capacity causes us to need more pipelines (why we needed Keystone XL). Alberta has this silly inherent problem of being land locked where boats don't work and we have this mass of land between two oceans.

We don't send oil from the Alberta oil sands to the Saint John refineries...because we don't have pipelines in between and it's more cost effective for Irving Oil to buy from Saudi Arabia (the whole ship thing). There's of course other factors at play, but to dumb it down to lol 15th century Ottoman sultans use boats is quite inept when we are a country with a large land mass

If the goal is being energy self reliant across the country, we need pipelines across the country to make transportation cost effective on land versus going by boat through the Panama Canal because current infrastructure does not exist. It's absolutely better in the long run.

[PepsiFree]

Boats are, in fact, also built on land

[Geraldsh]

When Trump owns the Panama Canal and the Gulf of America shipping costs will rise exponentially.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Boats are, in fact, also built on land

Indeed.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Firebot

What is it with folks like you and making #### up. No one said it's so much cheaper.



https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesco...eline-or-boat/



Clearly Cappy knows better than the gas and petroleum industry building all these silly costly pipelines instead of boats...on land.

We don't use boats to get oil from the Alberta oil sands to the Gulf refineries...because we have pipelines in between. Shortage in capacity causes us to need more pipelines (why we needed Keystone XL). Alberta has this silly inherent problem of being land locked where boats don't work and we have this mass of land between two oceans.

We don't send oil from the Alberta oil sands to the Saint John refineries...because we don't have pipelines in between and it's more cost effective for Irving Oil to buy from Saudi Arabia (the whole ship thing). There's of course other factors at play, but to dumb it down to lol 15th century Ottoman sultans use boats is quite inept when we are a country with a large land mass

If the goal is being energy self reliant across the country, we need pipelines across the country to make transportation cost effective on land versus going by boat through the Panama Canal because current infrastructure does not exist. It's absolutely better in the long run.

I don’t know if energy east was more cost effective than TMX and shipping. It’s certainly close. The only reason energy east could have been economical is the scarcity of pipelines. If the argument is make pipelines easier to build so capital is the only barrier no one builds energy east.

The regulatory environment is what made Energy east viable and why you had a high level trans Canada person volunteering on JTs campaign.

If we want energy security as a value the government would need to subsidize it. The market will not get you there.

[ThePrince]

While market access for oil is a big part of the equation (especially in the context of tariffs), IMO where Canada is leaving the most revenue on the table is natural gas. There is SO MUCH natural gas resource in Canada, with really no way to get it to market, and this will be squandered in the ground forever unless Canada can figure out market access. It's embarrassing what AECO trades at relative to natural gas prices throughout the rest of the world, and there's really no excuse for that other than Canada hasn't been able to get their #### together.

If I was in government, I would be doing everything I could to increase LNG capacity, but there has been essentially zero interest in that from the government.

[Firebot]

A timely recent article involving Irving Oil in lieu of all the tariff talks.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...-all-1.7432107

RPP Market data

https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-an...cent-2022.html

Since 2010, Canada’s imports of refined products such as gasoline, diesel, heating oil, condensate, and jet fuel have roughly tripled.

While Canada’s refineries produce more RPPs than Canadians consume, RPPs are still imported into the country because some parts of Canada do not produce enough RPPs to supply local needs. These areas are often not well-connected by transportation infrastructure to parts of Canada that have excess RPPs to spare. Provinces that are not as well-connected to pipelines but have tidewater access, such as Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador, tend to import a larger portion of RPPs from other countries besides the U.S., including European countries. Ultimately, each RPP distributor or reseller makes the decision of where to source its RPPs based on several factors, including the specifications of the product, product pricing, availability of local supply, cost of transportation, and other logistical considerations.

We will see how strong Canadian unity is when Ontario and Quebec are hit with excessive gas prices with tariff wars and gas shortages due to our inability to refine our own products and lack of infrastructure within our country.

More relevant info.

https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-an...s-in-2023.html

What happens when the US shuts down the Enbridge Mainline (as it has been threatened in the past by Michigan)? Our infrastructure is fully reliant on the US.