The Democratic Presidential Nomination 2020

[rubecube]

I think an even bigger problem for the Democrats to consider is, what are they going to do in the future now that the progressive wing of the party has woken up and realized their votes were being taken for granted all these years and that their concerns aren't really a priority for the party?

[peter12]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I think an even bigger problem for the Democrats to consider is, what are they going to do in the future now that the progressive wing of the party has woken up and realized their votes were being taken for granted all these years and that their concerns aren't really a priority for the party?

They've woken up? What was Obama but a feast day for the progressive wing? Honestly, dude.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I've said previously that the tricky needle to thread for the Democrats is that they need all of those groups to show up if they want to win. The data from previous elections demonstrates this.

The union, latino, and youth votes are all firmly in Bernie's corner. The question is whether he can appeal to black and women voters. I think there is enough in Bernie's platform to appeal to those groups in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. Which parts of Biden's platform is appealing to the young progressive wing of the party?

The unions are not firmly in Sanders corner, and he doesn't have the Latino vote either, that will be determined in Florida

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by peter12

They've woken up? What was Obama but a feast day for the progressive wing? Honestly, dude.

They delivered the Obama presidency, the House and the Senate in 2008. What did they honestly have to show for it four years later in terms of truly progressive policies?

[peter12]

Originally Posted by rubecube

They delivered the Obama presidency, the House and the Senate in 2008. What did they honestly have to show for it four years later in terms of truly progressive policies?

Maybe progressive voters would figure out that they their concerns are not popular with most Americans and a) start their own party or b) compromise with their moderate Democrat compatriots?

That would be the smart thing to do, anyway.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I've said previously that the tricky needle to thread for the Democrats is that they need all of those groups to show up if they want to win. The data from previous elections demonstrates this.

The union, latino, and youth votes are all firmly in Bernie's corner. The question is whether he can appeal to black and women voters. I think there is enough in Bernie's platform to appeal to those groups in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. Which parts of Biden's platform is appealing to the young progressive wing of the party?

If the choice is between Biden's platform vs Trump's platform, why wouldn't every part be appealing?

There is a substantial difference between how Trump and Biden would handle health care, supreme court judges, min wage, social liberal policies, environmental policies, racism, gun control... All of those things were going in the right direction under Obama and have taken a huge change in the wrong direction under Trump.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

The unions are not firmly in Sanders corner, and he doesn't have the Latino vote either, that will be determined in Florida

Eh? In Nevada, the Culinary Union voters defied their leadership and firmly backed Sanders. He's also been the preferred choice by Latinos so far (especially 18-44 Latinos) by a pretty wide margin.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/04/81194...-super-tuesday

[Maritime Q-Scout]

What I've gathered over the last few pages is Sanders is very strong with half the demographics, and very poor with the other half. Biden is very strong with the same demographics Sanders is very poor in, but he's very poor in the demographics that Sanders is very strong in.

All together, Biden has more of a base.


So.... why not have Sanders run as Biden's VP?

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by octothorp

I think Biden's going to have a harder road than most of the potential nominees would against Trump, largely because he shares a lot of Trump's flaws to a lesser degree, so it's going to be harder to contrast him against Trump, especially with the US media's tendency to 'both sides' everything. Trump's horrible history with women? Well Biden has these weird touchy moments as well. Trump's declining mental state? Biden's prone to verbal gaffs too. Trump's incredible family grifting? Biden's got some baggage there. Trump's embrace of the swamp after promising to drain it? Biden's waist-deep in that swamp. Trump's poor race record? Ditto. etc.
In reality Biden is better than Trump in all of these regards, but it's going to be hard for Biden to effectively hit Trump on any of those points.

Biden's substantial wins with college-educated women and black voters suggest those issues aren't the liabilities for Biden that progressives paint them to be.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I'm not saying he necessarily can, but he has a better chance of doing it than Biden does. The age gap between Biden and Bernie voters is a massive problem for the Democrats:

As to why youth vote in the primary might be down for Bernie? Could be he's not driving them out. Another factor might be the growing number of registered independents depleting the pool to draw from.

I mentioned this already, but I think it's being lost that Bernie's white blue collar support, especially rural, was basically a 2016 or never proposition. With those voters gone, he needs to rely even more heavily on youth and that just always seems like a losing strategy.

I think an even bigger problem for the Democrats to consider is, what are they going to do in the future now that the progressive wing of the party has woken up and realized their votes were being taken for granted all these years and that their concerns aren't really a priority for the party?

But this is an existential problem of the current system. As long as the GOP can count on 40% of the vote, the progressives can't realistically split from the Dems and still be viable in a general. I know it sucks that it can't just all happen and has to be incremental change and small bits at a time, but the alternative is none at all, and more than likely a reversal of progress of the last 50+ years. It's a complicated problem to solve, to say the least.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by peter12

Maybe progressive voters would figure out that they their concerns are not popular with most Americans and a) start their own party or b) compromise with their moderate Democrat compatriots?

That would be the smart thing to do, anyway.

Isn't this what they've been doing and it's led them to where they are now?

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I don't know what you mean. They clearly haven't started their own party, and the message this morning is not one of compromise. It's the same "No Sanders? #### you all then, let the world burn" thing as last time.

The progressive wing has clearly influenced the party and moved it left. It's just not wholesale buy in, and apparently that's all that will be acceptable to a large contingent of the Bernie wing.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Eh? In Nevada, the Culinary Union voters defied their leadership and firmly backed Sanders. He's also been the preferred choice by Latinos so far (especially 18-44 Latinos) by a pretty wide margin.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/04/81194...-super-tuesday

Lets see how he does in Florida, the whole Castro wasn't so bad schtick aint going to sell there so well

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

What I've gathered over the last few pages is Sanders is very strong with half the demographics, and very poor with the other half. Biden is very strong with the same demographics Sanders is very poor in, but he's very poor in the demographics that Sanders is very strong in.

All together, Biden has more of a base.


So.... why not have Sanders run as Biden's VP?

I know it’s in green text... but I thought about that too. Why the hell not!? If the goal is to defeat Trump that has to be the best path right? Throw selfishness aside and team up. (I’m aware that’s not going to happen).

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

If the choice is between Biden's platform vs Trump's platform, why wouldn't every part be appealing?

There is a substantial difference between how Trump and Biden would handle health care, supreme court judges, min wage, social liberal policies, environmental policies, racism, gun control... All of those things were going in the right direction under Obama and have taken a huge change in the wrong direction under Trump.

Because crappy centrist half-measures and compromises are what put Trump and the Republicans back into power in the first place. Biden has already committed to compromising with Republicans, which just means allowing them to drag any policy to the centre-right, and then move it further right if/when they win back power.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

I know it’s in green text... but I thought about that too. Why the hell not!? If the goal is to defeat Trump that has to be the best path right? Throw selfishness aside and team up. (I’m aware that’s not going to happen).

The thing I'd be worried about is both of them being so damn old.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Because crappy centrist half-measures and compromises are what put Trump and the Republicans back into power in the first place. Biden has already committed to compromising with Republicans, which just means allowing them to drag any policy to the centre-right, and then move it further right if/when they win back power.

No, the Republicans won because they are far better at uniting their base than the Democrats! Elections aren't won on policy except in terribly rare cases.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I don't know what you mean. They clearly haven't started their own party, and the message this morning is not one of compromise. It's the same "No Sanders? #### you all then, let the world burn" thing as last time.

The progressive wing has clearly influenced the party and moved it left. It's just not wholesale buy in, and apparently that's all that will be acceptable to a large contingent of the Bernie wing.

Again, I think that's largely because when given a chance to govern, the centrists have shown they aren't actually going to fight for the progressive causes they campaign on.

I don't think it's necessarily a "No Sanders? #### you all then," attitude as much as it's a "Show me why I should actually vote for you" attitude. "At least he isn't Trump," isn't an inspiring movement to get behind.

If it was me personally, I'd still hold my nose and vote for Biden, but I understand the appeal of letting the Democrats get embarrassed in another election and hoping that forces them to move more to the left.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

I think that a part of it is that Canadians generally don't see Bernie as that crazy. Where as in the states, he is a radical. Also, it is difficult to wrap our minds around the fact that Americans are quite happy with the status quo, even if from the outside we see them as a dystopian #### hole.

I'm as liberal as it gets and I think Bernie is crazy for his first go round. He is outlefting the NDP! How many trillions will it cost for his plans?

[HockeyIlliterate]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

That's some convoluted logic.

Not really....

I'm just suggesting that states the Democrats have no chance of winning in November shouldn't be used as a basis to determine who the Democratic nominee should be.

And I'm also just suggesting that states the Democrats will win in November should be used to evaluate what and who the base of the Democratic party wants.

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Swing states like VA and NC matter, and Biden will bring house and senate seats from states like that which will help him govern.

Of course they do.

I'm just not convinced that the voter turnout will be in full force in such states when the underlying base isn't happy about who is at the top of the ticket.

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Over 48% of California voted for Biden and candidates who endorse Biden vs 33% for Sanders and 12% for Warren. How is that a huge margin of victory for Bernie? People can still vote in California until Friday, so who knows how that state even ends up, but it isn't trending in Bernie's favor.

Your combined 48% figure for Biden presumes that many of the voters for those "other candidates for Biden" would have voted for Biden had the candidate that they actually voted for did not exist.

That is quite a presumption.

Look, in the end, I'm going to vote for the Democratic nominee for President.

But if that person happens to be Biden, I'm not going to be happy about it.

Deep down, he doesn't give a flying flip about me and I don't get the sense that he will, as President, try to do anything of any significance to try to improve my life. He is a corporatist, his best days are behind him (both mentally and age-wise), and his record sans-Obama is pretty underwhelming and, in parts, disgraceful.

Bernie is much too old for the job as well, but his convictions are clear and I don't think that anyone can reasonably argue that he would not, as President, try to make wholesale changes in a variety of areas for the betterment of the US. His ability to succeed is certainly in doubt, but at least he'd try.

Which is way more than I think Biden is going to do for anyone other than his buddies.