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Old 04-14-2022, 10:09 AM   #1821
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Originally Posted by Flamesfan05 View Post
It’s not a sure thing he will sign in Calgary. He is not holding out for nothing.

I am not saying he won’t sign but it won’t be easy
He is not holding out at all, the team and him have agreed to negotiate after season's end, happens all the time. I actually think it will be quite easy to reach a deal. Again, it is not a sure thing he will sign in Calgary like it is not a sure thing I won't win the lottery in Friday. I would bet anything he stays a Flame.
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Old 04-14-2022, 10:13 AM   #1822
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Not sure if it’s been discussed, but I had the thought that Tkachuk’s play this year may have actually made it more likely he signs with the Flames long term. Before the season, I don’t know if anybody thought he would play to a level to be worth 9 million next year, meaning he would accept the QO and take himself right to UFA. Now that he has likely outperformed the value of his QO offer, Tkachuk would be playing at a discount next season if he accepted it. More likely he will want to maximize his career year and sign a long term deal.
I don't know if he'd look at it as a discount compared to his market value next year as much as compared to his value in 8 or 9 years (ie. the year after a new deal would expire).

The good news is that the Flames will have resolution to the Gaudreau situation first. I think there is actually opportunity to negotiated a '9 year deal', with the first being the QO and the rest waiting in a drawer.

A. 1x9M, 8x~10M, UFA age 34
vs.
B. 8x~10M, UFA age 33

Is he getting 9M at age 33? In option B, he'd take a bit less compensation in year 1 since it's a 10% escrow year, but option A gets more money into his jeans immediately.


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Not sure how waiting benefits BT - but it definitely benefits Johnny. I have a feeling that nothing will be signed until the last week before free agency, when Johnny will be able to talk to other teams to see what they will offer while the Flames will still be able to sign him for 8 years. I think even if an 8 year $80M offer was on the table, it doesn't hurt Johnny to wait until that week in case he gets a 7 year $75M+ offer that he can use for leverage.
Let's see how the playoffs go. It's hard to imagine Johnny pushing his value much higher, but another tepid playoff performance could change the calculus a bit.

Regardless of these playoffs, I think it could/should play out a bit like Landeskog (though I'm already foggy on those details)...Flames hold the line at 8x~10M (maybe willing to go to 10.25M before midnight), but if necessary permit Johnny to explore the market leading up to July 1 - if he finds a 7 year deal that he likes better then we can wish him well (and maybe get a 3rd out of it for his UFA rights).

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He could also sign a one-year RFA offer sheet and let the Flames match it, then he could walk next summer after the Flames wouldn't be able to trade him for a year because they matched an offer sheet.
I know you're just sketching how it would work, but its really hard to imagine a 1 yr deal makes sense for the offering team. Given our cap crunch, we just say thank you very much for the two 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd. The only 'good' team who might have the space to do it is NAS, but even then I think it's plausible that at least one of those 1sts is a lottery pick.
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Old 04-14-2022, 10:19 AM   #1823
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Im not sure what he would have to gain by signing before UFA status as a matter of fact. Why would he not at least explore or listen to see who else might be interested...does he not owe that to himself and his wife/family?
If he and his wife are happy in Calgary, he likes the direction the team is going, and he gets the type of offer he's looking for then why not?
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Old 04-14-2022, 10:24 AM   #1824
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I think how the playoffs go will go a long way to them signing.

I honestly believe professional athletes want to win, sometimes more than they want $$.

If the Flames do well this year and the boys think they can continue to grow it will be attractive to sign in Calgary.
I agree in that an early exit will surely bring out the critics like Francis that say you can't win with Johnny in the playoffs and it's clear the Gaudreau's pay attention to Calgary media and even maybe even what the fans are saying. Also the bitter disappointment could leave a sour taste for Gaudreau in that maybe he will want to try and win elsewhere. It's all up in the air at this point and I'm not really going to worry about it until the end of the season and hopefully that is a high note.

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Old 04-14-2022, 10:28 AM   #1825
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As far as regular seasons go, I actually don't really think this seasons performance has really upped Gaudreaus projected contract. Regardless of where he signs. He's already had a 99 point season, we all know what he is and what he brings. Sutter coming in has just helped him elevate his game to where we all thought it would be.

Tkachuk in my mind has had the biggest boost. We've all cringed at his 9 mil QO. He's been a bit of an enigma up until this season. I think even Tkachuk didn't know what his identity was in tbe league. Now we do. He's an elite winger. He's better playing hockey at an elite level than he is shooting pucks at Jake Muzzin and getting into fights with Zack Kassian. The 9mil QO in my mind is pretty close to where he should be.

Winning in the playoffs is the only thing that could change all that.
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Old 04-14-2022, 11:15 AM   #1826
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I agree with the sentiment that Johnny waiting to sign is likely more indicative of seeing how this season went and to what extent he wanted to stay for another 8 (?) years. Well, he's having a monster season, the team is winning, and nice playoff run will only cement that.

But I will say this -- if Johnny doesn't immediately re-sign after the season is over, I don't think that is necessarily a indication he's looking elsewhere (or wants to look elsewhere). I have a strong suspicion he's very interested in whether Tkachuk signs a multi-year extension. I think Tkachuk's camp is likely feeling the same way about whether Johnny re-signs.
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Old 04-14-2022, 11:34 AM   #1827
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I agree with the sentiment that Johnny waiting to sign is likely more indicative of seeing how this season went and to what extent he wanted to stay for another 8 (?) years. Well, he's having a monster season, the team is winning, and nice playoff run will only cement that.

But I will say this -- if Johnny doesn't immediately re-sign after the season is over, I don't think that is necessarily a indication he's looking elsewhere (or wants to look elsewhere). I have a strong suspicion he's very interested in whether Tkachuk signs a multi-year extension. I think Tkachuk's camp is likely feeling the same way about whether Johnny re-signs.
Someone else mentioned it, but waiting until the week before free agency when he can hear offers from other teams, is probably the easiest way to determine market value. It makes a lot of sense to determine the price that way, then to go back and forth with comparisons and hair splitting that can cause distractions and hard feelings. Gaudreau's agent can go back to the Flames with the offers and request an 8th year with the same AAV, and it becomes one of the easiest contract negotiations ever. It just sucks having to bring it down to the wire because it does come with some risks.

I do get the sense from the way that his parents talk, they appreciate the fact that JG and invested a lot into the team and city to build a brand and place in the hearts of the fans and it is not something you just throw away. If the financial incentive to stay is there, I don't think keeping him will be an issue. I just really hope the Flames don't try to cheap out.
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Old 04-14-2022, 11:36 AM   #1828
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I agree with the sentiment that Johnny waiting to sign is likely more indicative of seeing how this season went and to what extent he wanted to stay for another 8 (?) years. Well, he's having a monster season, the team is winning, and nice playoff run will only cement that.

But I will say this -- if Johnny doesn't immediately re-sign after the season is over, I don't think that is necessarily a indication he's looking elsewhere (or wants to look elsewhere). I have a strong suspicion he's very interested in whether Tkachuk signs a multi-year extension. I think Tkachuk's camp is likely feeling the same way about whether Johnny re-signs.
Another factor - I believe there is a one-week period before free agency where pending UFAs will be allowed to talk to other teams, but their original team will still be able to sign them to an 8-year deal (vs. 7 year max for anyone signing him after July 1st). It's clearly in Gaudreau's best interest to wait until then to at least hear what other teams have to offer, even if he fully intends to sign with the Flames since he can use those other offers as leverage. So while it will be stressful for fans, I fully expect Gaudreau to wait until then, but still sign with the Flames in that last week before July 1st.
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Old 04-14-2022, 11:44 AM   #1829
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With annual inflation now approaching 10%, a $10 million per annum contract ain't what it used to be. These negotiations with Johnny and Chucky will be interesting.
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Old 04-14-2022, 11:47 AM   #1830
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i assume that they are both going to buy sutter a really nice thank you gift when they sign their next deals
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Old 04-14-2022, 03:35 PM   #1831
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With annual inflation now approaching 10%, a $10 million per annum contract ain't what it used to be. These negotiations with Johnny and Chucky will be interesting.
Inflation rate makes no difference. The cap is the cap.
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Old 04-14-2022, 04:54 PM   #1832
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Another factor - I believe there is a one-week period before free agency where pending UFAs will be allowed to talk to other teams, but their original team will still be able to sign them to an 8-year deal (vs. 7 year max for anyone signing him after July 1st)...
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Someone else mentioned it, but waiting until the week before free agency when he can hear offers from other teams, is probably the easiest way to determine market value...
This is true, and I don't disagree as Johnny holds all the leverage here (it's not like Calgary is going to spend its money on someone else if Johnny isn't signed by the time free agency opens).

But I suspect Treliving's pitch isn't going to be "we'll match your best offer but give you an extra year", it's going to be "this is what we can afford to pay you while re-signing Tkachuk as well as Kylington and/or Mangiapane. That number isn't necessarily going to change substantially by waiting until free agency opens (or the week prior); it's also going to depend on how the Tkachuk negotiation goes. Both players are important and I think both players will want at least some degree of comfort that the other will be here long term before putting pen to paper.
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Old 04-14-2022, 05:27 PM   #1833
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This is true, and I don't disagree as Johnny holds all the leverage here (it's not like Calgary is going to spend its money on someone else if Johnny isn't signed by the time free agency opens).
The minute free agency opens, the option of giving him an 8-year deal goes *poof*. That is one bit of leverage the team has.
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Old 04-14-2022, 05:31 PM   #1834
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The minute free agency opens, the option of giving him an 8-year deal goes *poof*. That is one bit of leverage the team has.
Are you saying the Flames aren't allowed to sign Johnny to an 8 year deal after free agency opens?

Because I don't think that's true.

Pretty sure they will still be the only team allowed to give him an 8 year deal.
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Old 04-14-2022, 05:39 PM   #1835
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Still think they get both guys done in the 9-10 AAV range.

I think patience and a good season will pay off for them.
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Old 04-14-2022, 05:44 PM   #1836
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Are you saying the Flames aren't allowed to sign Johnny to an 8 year deal after free agency opens?

Because I don't think that's true.

Pretty sure they will still be the only team allowed to give him an 8 year deal.

It's not true. Teams can give players an 8-year deal as long as they were on that team's reserve list at the trading deadline.
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Old 04-14-2022, 05:51 PM   #1837
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CBA Article 50.8.b.iv.

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With respect to potential Unrestricted Free Agents only, the ability to re-sign a Player to an SPC of eight (8) years expires when the Player becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent.
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Old 04-14-2022, 05:52 PM   #1838
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Yes, it will be a difficult decision to trade away one of those players, regardless of which one gets traded.

Keeping Mang and trading Chucky might make more sense than you think, if Chucky refuses to sign for anything longer than his 1 year QO.

Let's hope for the best case scenario where all three of them can be kept.
If Gaudreau walks, probably impacts Chucky too but who knows which way. On the one hand, maybe he would relish the chance to be the go to guy and leader on the ice. Or he might want to walk too.

If Gaudreau signs, I feel like it makes a better case for Chucky extending too. But then again, if he wants to be "the man" then maybe he'd do one year and walk. Impossible to say!

But yes let's hope we can make all 3 work.
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Old 04-14-2022, 05:54 PM   #1839
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Are you saying the Flames aren't allowed to sign Johnny to an 8 year deal after free agency opens?

Because I don't think that's true.

Pretty sure they will still be the only team allowed to give him an 8 year deal.
CBA 50.8(b)(iv):

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…a Club may sign a Player to an SPC with a term of up to eight (8) years if that Player was on such Club's Reserve List as of and since the most recent Trade Deadline. With respect to potential Unrestricted Free Agents only, the ability to re-sign a Player to an SPC of eight (8) years expires when the Player becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent.
The moment Gaudreau officially becomes a UFA, he can no longer be offered an 8-year contract.
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Old 04-14-2022, 05:58 PM   #1840
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CBA 50.8(b)(iv):

The moment Gaudreau officially becomes a UFA, he can no longer be offered an 8-year contract.
So let's sign him on July 12
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