Real estate in Calgary - another bubble?

[Lubicon]

In the past two months we've had three houses on our street (Tuscany) go up for sale. None lasted longer than 3 days and all went for above asking price.

[greyshep]

Originally Posted by shermanator

I live in Altadore. My elderly neighbour put her house up for sale in the lot next to ours. It is one of only two lots on our block that aren't newer infills and the only one that is a full size 50 * 120 lot. It's listed for $900,000 and is being marketed as a tear down.

The last few days, the number of ######bags in Tesla's that have rolled up to check out the lot is higher than usual.

We are still hunting for a new place and its been ridiculous seeing the inflated prices people are paying in this market. I assume its still largely influenced by the influx of Toronto and Vancouver buyers as it seems there is always someone out there willing to pay way over list for any house we have been interested in.

If Calgary has a market correction in the near future there are gonna be a lot of unhappy folks in their houses they paid way too much for.

[Mazrim]

Originally Posted by greyshep

We are still hunting for a new place and its been ridiculous seeing the inflated prices people are paying in this market. I assume its still largely influenced by the influx of Toronto and Vancouver buyers as it seems there is always someone out there willing to pay way over list for any house we have been interested in.

If Calgary has a market correction in the near future there are gonna be a lot of unhappy folks in their houses they paid way too much for.

Next month will be almost 2 years of searching for me. People are throwing a lot of extra money at places that really don't have any sense being that expensive. It's such a strange market lately.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

In the past two months we've had three houses on our street (Tuscany) go up for sale. None lasted longer than 3 days and all went for above asking price.

The same has been happening in my area in the deep south end of the city.

[Fire]

Sounds like interest rates need to be bumped up some more. Plus when Canada adds over a million immigrants last year they have to live somewhere. I don't think new housing is keeping us with demand. I am not against immigration but it is putting a floor on how low house prices can go.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by greyshep

We are still hunting for a new place and its been ridiculous seeing the inflated prices people are paying in this market. I assume its still largely influenced by the influx of Toronto and Vancouver buyers as it seems there is always someone out there willing to pay way over list for any house we have been interested in.

If Calgary has a market correction in the near future there are gonna be a lot of unhappy folks in their houses they paid way too much for.

There's never going to be a "market correction". Things might slow down, but I firmly believe the days of a housing bubble collapsing are behind us. There are already not enough homes in cities for the people that want them, and immigration isn't slowing down at all

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/0...on-people.html

Where are all of those new residents going to live?

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Fire

I don't think new housing is keeping us with demand. I am not against immigration but it is putting a floor on how low house prices can go.

I agree. There are all sorts of societal issues that are directly impacted by the lack of housing supply/affordability. The mass influx of immigration is likely a good thing globally, and could be a great thing locally if we can properly take advantage of the situation and set people up for success.

We need to find ways to get housing to market faster. I don't think developers should be able to run roughshod over our city, but we also can't have consultation to appease all 1.4M of us on every project. It's too easy for NIMBYs to stall developments right now, and the rigour for approvals is getting pretty insane.

[greyshep]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

There's never going to be a "market correction". Things might slow down, but I firmly believe the days of a housing bubble collapsing are behind us. There are already not enough homes in cities for the people that want them, and immigration isn't slowing down at all

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/0...on-people.html

Where are all of those new residents going to live?

You must be related to the folks who just spent 895k on a home worth 750k on a busy street in a South Calgary suburb.

Maybe I am a touch too conservative but there is no way I am going in with blinders on like that assuming these prices are here to stay.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by greyshep

We are still hunting for a new place and its been ridiculous seeing the inflated prices people are paying in this market. I assume its still largely influenced by the influx of Toronto and Vancouver buyers as it seems there is always someone out there willing to pay way over list for any house we have been interested in.

If Calgary has a market correction in the near future there are gonna be a lot of unhappy folks in their houses they paid way too much for.

My neighbours who are moving back to PEI listed their house for what they thought was about 60k more than it was worth and ended up getting another 34k on top with an unconditional sale but a 33 day possession date, no surprise the buyers were from Vancouver.

Best part is I got $5k for half my garage for storage and to let them stay with me for about 5 weeks till they move

Worst part is I might have new neighbours that are Canuck fans

[TorqueDog]

My house just sold last night — pending conditions and with a June 15 possession — for $1,200.00 under the list price of $800,000.

It was only put on the market the day before. Could there still have been more money on the table if we’d waited for more offers? Maybe. But a quick and easy sale was more desirable given the circumstances than fussing about an extra ten grand or so.

[nik-]

If you listed as a price you're happy with, and you got that close, it's totally worth just getting it done imo.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Fire

Sounds like interest rates need to be bumped up some more. Plus when Canada adds over a million immigrants last year they have to live somewhere. I don't think new housing is keeping us with demand. I am not against immigration but it is putting a floor on how low house prices can go.

Its a bizarre problem.

More immigration = more housing demand.
More housing demand = more skilled trades positions being open.
Skilled trade positions not being filled = more immigration demand.

At the same time corporate Canada loves more immigration because it allows them to keep wages low.

At the same time the government & rich developers love the lack of housing supply because it keeps demand high, supply low = prices are always high.

At the same time there is a massive shortage of skilled trades regardless of what happens with immigration, and with the switch towards EVs and the likely fact that Canada will be in a strong position to provide manufacturing capacity, the shortage will be bigger than ever.

At the same time AI & other technological advancements are likely going to lead to terrible job losses, but we are slow to wrap our head around this and realize that we need to be pushing kids into developing sectors that pay well, not into ####ty college degrees where they end up working retail or fast food because nobody is hiring.

But, with high immigration that just helps keep wages low, there is slow uptake into these positions by 2nd+ generation Canadians. And also we are raising a generation of kids who simply don't want to get into STEM / trades / manufacturing, regardless of how well it pays.

All of this is going to equal a pretty wild real estate market for the foreseeable future.

Not sure interest rates are going to change any of that, other than make the banks richer.

[Johnny199r]

http://https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/c...ices-1.1905914

tl:dr - As a reaction to higher interest rates, banks changed the rules and now allow people to have mortgages for longer than 30 years and are also tacking on unpaid interest onto the mortgage's principal instead of paying full every month. This is creating a floor under home prices in Canada.

If banks didn't change the rules in response to recent rising interest rates, real estate prices likely would have continued downward, leaving overstretched homeowners in trouble, but provided more of an opportunity for young people/first-time home owners to enter the market.

In Canada, home owners are the golden goose. Gov't, banks, and any other entity you can think of will do everything in their power to keep home prices going up.

[Ace]

I don’t believe higher rates will slow the housing market in Alberta, it’s having the opposite effect, driving people out of Vancouver and Toronto increasing demand here.

If you look at the inter-provincial migration it’s pretty clear. With everything being relative the best way to manage rising costs in Ontario is to move somewhere else.

[Johnny199r]

Originally Posted by Ace

I don’t believe higher rates will slow the housing market in Alberta, it’s having the opposite effect, driving people out of Vancouver and Toronto increasing demand here.

If you look at the inter-provincial migration it’s pretty clear. With everything being relative the best way to manage rising costs in Ontario is to move somewhere else.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Calgary is just late to the Toronto money pandemic-induced exodus.

My extended family lives in Halifax. Houses went from 300k to 750k on my mom's street during the pandemic. In a city/province with laughable wages and sky high taxes.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Johnny199r

http://https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/c...ices-1.1905914

tl:dr - As a reaction to higher interest rates, banks changed the rules and now allow people to have mortgages for longer than 30 years and are also tacking on unpaid interest onto the mortgage's principal instead of paying full every month. This is creating a floor under home prices in Canada.

If banks didn't change the rules in response to recent rising interest rates, real estate prices likely would have continued downward, leaving overstretched homeowners in trouble, but provided more of an opportunity for young people/first-time home owners to enter the market.

In Canada, home owners are the golden goose. Gov't, banks, and any other entity you can think of will do everything in their power to keep home prices going up.

I don't think banks are the issue. It's lack of supply. Canada needs immigrants, but there's no plan to housr all the new immigrants.

Prices will continue to rise, largely because there's no shortage of baby boomers willing to give their children massive cash gifts to assist their children in buying property.

We have both artificial supply and demand that detached prices from wages. If you don't earn 2-3x or more of the national wage average or have wealthy parents... Then you're just out of luck. That's the country we live in now.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by greyshep

You must be related to the folks who just spent 895k on a home worth 750k on a busy street in a South Calgary suburb.

Maybe I am a touch too conservative but there is no way I am going in with blinders on like that assuming these prices are here to stay.

Those prices aren't there to stay; they are going to go higher.
I would argue you're wearing blinders if you're convinced the opposite.

And honest question, why even buy if you don't believe in the values?
There's nothing wrong with just being a renter and spending your money on things you believe in.

[boogerz]

[snip]

[Yoho]

Smells like peak FOMO is near.

[rohara66]

I can see a small correction... 5-10%... but anyone waiting for a "bubble to bust" is going to be waiting for a while a while for a 20, 30, 40% drop. Not gonna happen.