Alberta Politics Thread

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I tend to think that the backlash by Alberta's voters against he NDP in the next election if they keep driving the busses over the cliff will make the PC fall look like nothing.

Yes and no. Unless things massively change in the next three years, they are going to get smoked. But, unless Greg Clark pulls some sort of rabbit out of his ass, the NDP will still hold sway with moderate lefties as well as the looney toons on the far left. The PCs fell so hard because they bled support on both the left and the right.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Locke

What does the 'Q' stand for?

"questioning"

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Yes and no. Unless things massively change in the next three years, they are going to get smoked. But, unless Greg Clark pulls some sort of rabbit out of his ass, the NDP will still hold sway with moderate lefties as well as the looney toons on the far left. The PCs fell so hard because they bled support on both the left and the right.

And this is why I think Kenney is a poor choice for the PCs. He's not going to capture the left votes that the party has bled and he'll end up splitting the right with the WRP.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

...The PCs fell so hard because they bled support on both the left and the right.

I tend to agree with this. It's going to take more than 3 years for the right to unite, discard both WRP and PC and form a new credible party platform. We will see another NDP term, almost guaranteed.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by rubecube

And this is why I think Kenney is a poor choice for the PCs. He's not going to capture the left votes that the party has bled and he'll end up splitting the right with the WRP.

Most of the "left votes" came from the PC camp to begin with, so I think you overestimate low loyal many of the voters would be to the "progressive" cause. Especially if it is still the case in 2019 that NDP programs are being panned for costing jobs and economic growth.

What Kenney is, is the type of leader who can hold the PCs current base and recapture Wildrose supporters. Especially if the younger party's current affairs turns into an actual split or rebellion. Even without recapturing much of anything from the NDP's current polling, he would need only half of Wildrose's support to pull the PCs up to the 38% range, and not far from majority territory.

Kenney may not be the best choice, but he isn't the worst, nor even near the bottom.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

I tend to agree with this. It's going to take more than 3 years for the right to unite, discard both WRP and PC and form a new credible party platform. We will see another NDP term, almost guaranteed.

Unless Notley pulls some major league gerrymandering and adds a bunch of urban Edmonton ridings, she has nowhere to go but down - and has in fact already lost a third of her base. She wont win a thing in rural Alberta, and if an election were held today, she would lose virtually all of Calgary. She would need the entirety of Edmonton and a near even split of the rest of the province between the PCs and Wildrose just to hold onto an incredibly unstable minority.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Most of the "left votes" came from the PC camp to begin with, so I think you overestimate low loyal many of the voters would be to the "progressive" cause. Especially if it is still the case in 2019 that NDP programs are being panned for costing jobs and economic growth.

What Kenney is, is the type of leader who can hold the PCs current base and recapture Wildrose supporters. Especially if the younger party's current affairs turns into an actual split or rebellion. Even without recapturing much of anything from the NDP's current polling, he would need only half of Wildrose's support to pull the PCs up to the 38% range, and not far from majority territory.

Kenney may not be the best choice, but he isn't the worst, nor even near the bottom.

I don't think that's necessarily true. The PCs gained a lot of panicked votes from the left during the previous election when the left became worried that the WRP were going to win the election.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Kenney may not be the best choice, but he isn't the worst, nor even near the bottom.

Also can we please make this Kenney's leadership campaign slogan?

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I don't think that's necessarily true. The PCs gained a lot of panicked votes from the left during the previous election when the left became worried that the WRP were going to win the election.

Granted, but this same factor would play to the PC's favour if the right wing - which has traditionally represented over 60% of the voters - were to fear that re-electing Notely is a legitimate threat. So you'd see Wildrose voters and economically harmed centrists falling back under the familiar umbrella.

One thing that 2012 left panic did accomplish though was to eliminate the Liberals as a going concern.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

I tend to agree with this. It's going to take more than 3 years for the right to unite, discard both WRP and PC and form a new credible party platform. We will see another NDP term, almost guaranteed.

I don't believe that's going to happen, we're going to see a similar backlash to the last election against the ruling party. There are going to be people that were floating their vote that are going to be really resentful about the way they voted in the last election.

Unless the NDP actually find competent people to run instead of college kids and yoga instructors who are basically sitting in the back row vacuuming up a paycheck while Notley and her merry band of union hacks and environmental thumpers run things they're going to lose. I also believe that they need to dump Ceci from the finance portfolio, because either the guy is taking peyote intravenously with his cornflakes or he's just plain dumb.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I also believe that they need to dump Ceci from the finance portfolio, because either the guy is taking peyote intravenously with his cornflakes or he's just plain dumb.

He is by far the most qualified person they have, let that sink in for a moment.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by Jacks

He is by far the most qualified person they have, let that sink in for a moment.

What about the engineer from my riding or the waitress? At least they would have some basic math skills.

[Dan02]

I sometimes wonder if they have anyone who can do math in their caucus. Maybe a 10 billion deficit is just too big a number to conceptualize.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

What about the engineer from my riding or the waitress? At least they would have some basic math skills.

10 billion deficit, that's 1.5 billion for a tip!! yeah baby!!

[para transit fellow]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

What about the engineer from my riding or the waitress? At least they would have some basic math skills.

Wtf does an engineer learn about finance during university?

[para transit fellow]

Kenny is a moron when faced with Alberta politics. Alberta is a different dynamic when compared federally... Kenny will just try to implement what he is advised to to do by his Ontario handlers

[OMG!WTF!]

Originally Posted by para transit fellow

Wtf does an engineer learn about finance during university?

About as much as the average lawyer.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by para transit fellow

Wtf does an engineer learn about finance during university?

A typical engineer in university learns a lot of problem solving.

Define problem
Get Data
Apply data to problem
Measure results
Test original assumptions if suction did not work

Something politicians could learn a lot from.

Also if they becomes PMs or PEs trusting the people that work for you and relying on their expertise rather than agenda pushing (though that really isn't limited to any profession and there are lots of terrible PMs and PEs out there).

But putting an average engineer in charge instead of Joe Cici would like be an improvement.

[para transit fellow]

Wow. I am shocked to learn that no one, other than engineers, uses a problem solving process ...

Frankly, I tire of the mystique of the engineering school graduate being the only person who can problem solve. I find that every profession involves significant problem solving skills.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...cial_ministers

We've had a veterinarian and a professor of political science as finance minister.

And Alberta's last round of large debt accumlation was under the watchful eye of Premier Getty

-an engineer by profession....

Truth is that every Premier has had to form cabinet out of the pool of mla's who got elected.

That might be why very few ministers of energy had any actual experience in oil patch.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by para transit fellow

Wow. I am shocked to learn that no one, other than engineers, uses a problem solving process ...

Frankly, I tire of the mystique of the engineering school graduate being the only person who can problem solve. I find that every profession involves significant problem solving skills.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...cial_ministers

We've had a veterinarian and a professor of political science as finance minister.

And Alberta's last round of large debt accumlation was under the watchful eye of Premier Getty

-an engineer by profession....

Truth is that every Premier has had to form cabinet out of the pool of mla's who got elected.

That might be why very few ministers of energy had any actual experience in oil patch.

I'm not trying to exclude other professions. But I do think engineering, computer science, and other technical fields attract personalities that will focus on emotionless problem solving based on objective goals and data.

This type of personality diminishes as you leave technical fields.

Again painting with broad brushes here but it's not necessarily what is taught but it is the personality types and skill sets that are attracted to and enter these fields think differently then people in other fields.

In general people who seek public office probably shouldn't be in public office as its agenda driven people who cheer for their team that tend to excel.