Training Camp Day 5 Notes: Mangiapane-Kadri-Phillips

[TheScorpion]

I think that's overstating things ... Nathan Gerbe, Paul Byron, and Tyler Ennis never reached 60 points.

Phillips can be a third-line guy who pushes play. He has just as much bite to his game as Pelletier, IMO.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by blankall

I disagree.

A smaller player can only play certain roles on the team. They can't really forecheck, go to the boards, defend especially well, etc...

Pelletier could easily develop into a gritty mid-six guy. With Phillips it's offensive boom or bust. Phillips will essentially need to be a 60+ point player to ever play consistently in the NHL.

60 seems like a big hurdle, not sure I'd have it that high.

But yeah he needs to be able to play in the top nine for sure, and possibly the top six depending on team structure.

I mean if he could help a line go his production wouldn't matter, but then if he was doing that he'd have points which puts it back to your point.

But 60 points was 75th in scoring for forwards last year, so a top line player.

I'd say it closer to that average 8-9 guy which is 25-30 points. Only 257 forwards had 25 or more points last year which is 8 per team.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by btimbit

All the size does is limit his role, and therefore his opportunities. He can't fall back on being a grinder or a tough guy. He's either going to make it as a skilled player, or he's not going to make it.

As far as getting pushed around the AHL is a tougher league. He either has NHL skill, or doesn't

it's a huge factor. Making the NHL as a bottom 6 player is considerably easier than cracking a top 6 role. For bottom six roles, you're competing against guys like Lewis and potentially Lucic. For the top six role, the competition is much stiffer. At it's easiest you need to push a guy like Coleman out of that role, but even then Colemen brings more grit and can do things like crash the net, so Coleman has more potential top 6 roles he can perform.

Basically a player like Phillips has the role of high end playmaker available to him, and that's about it. So he has to out compete all the other high end playmakers, and probable be noticeably better than them at playmaking as he has little versatility.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Size matters. It just does. But I think in some instances, a lack of size is automatically construed as a negative, whereas players like Phillips use their low centre of gravity to their advantage in a lot of ways — but they also get knocked off the puck more easily.

I'm glad you have come to this realization. And yes, it does work against players. In a contact sport you need to have the frame to take the abuse.

Saying "he doesn't have the size to be effective" is a take that lacks nuance. Players of extremely small stature can be limited, but so can players with extremely large stature — there isn't any one hard-and-fast rule.

There are more players in the league that fall in that larger than median category than the ones that fall in the smaller than median category. And with 5'7, 140 pound Phillips, he falls on the extreme end of the smaller category. That has to be taken into consideration. People can point to 5'4, 175 pound Nathan Gerbe as an example of a small player doing great, but in his 13 year career he has been a tweener for the most part and getting only spot duty on really bad teams. When teams could improve on him, they quickly moved on. Is a team that considers itself a contender ready to make this leap?

I would say in Phillips' case, he uses the agility afforded to him by his frame to his advantage and isn't often manhandled anymore, having been taken advantage of more liberally in the past. Nowadays, that isn't as much of a factor, and that's largely come as a result of him having put on 25-30 pounds since he was drafted.

Well, we've seen Phillips look dangerous in one game for the Calgary Flames, and that was this past split squad game where he threaded the needle on 4-on-3 PP in OT. Not a great body of work, which is exactly why people are skeptical. He probably has a couple more opportunities to shine to see if they will keep him around for playing with the big boys in Group A. If he can survive that and then generate some offense against guys ready for the NHL season, then maybe he can beat out the guys on PTO who have NHL size and speed working to their advantage.

The Flames almost certainly look at these situations with more nuance — they don't just look at a guy and write him off because they're already at their quota of small players. If he can push play and help the team, he should get a shot.

Yes, they will look at this with a lot more nuance and understand that playing at the AHL level is not the same as playing at the NHL with guys that are quicker, bigger, faster, smarter, and meaner than the guys he's played against in the AHL. And yes, the Flames will write a player off if they believe they have too many small players. The team intentionally got bigger last season and watched that turn into a successful campaign. You better believe they are keeping an eye on size and whether they have too many small guys where they will get physically dominated and lose games. You opened up with size mattering and it does. For Phillips to make this team he's going to have to turn into the second coming of Johnny Hockey or they're going to look past him. This is his shot. He better produce and standout all over the ice

[TheScorpion]

Huberdeau–Lindholm–x
Mangiapane–Kadri–x
x–Backlund–Coleman

Those are your top-nine lines. You have Toffoli, Dube, Milano, Phillips, and Ruzicka angling for those three variable spots, with Toffoli and Dube locked in for two of them. Ruzicka could also potentially play on the fourth line.

Ritchie, for the time being, appears to be injured. Pelletier hasn't impressed to this point. Lucic will be on the fourth line, Lewis might be best suited for an extra forward spot, Rooney will probably be on the fourth line. Who knows with Eakin.

At this point, I would probably put the hierarchy like this:

1. Toffoli
2. Dube
3. Ruzicka
T4. Phillips/Milano
5. Eakin
6. Pelletier

I think, realistically speaking, four or *maybe* five of those guys make the team. A lot depends on how long Ritchie is out.

But if Phillips continues to play well, I wouldn't mind seeing this off the hop:

Huberdeau–Lindholm–Toffoli
Mangiapane–Kadri–Dube
Coleman–Backlund–Phillips
Lucic–Ruzicka–Milano/Rooney

[TheIronMaiden]

I think it is important to note that Phillips will not make size an excuse while he plays. It is the media and the fans who want to make that excuse for him.

[TheScorpion]

5'8", 165. The 5'7", 140 measurement is now over six years out of date.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

5'8", 165. The 5'7", 140 measurement is now over six years out of date.

Yet it is on the Calgary Flames' web site.

https://www.nhl.com/player/matthew-phillips-8479547

[TheScorpion]

The AHL updates their figures every season. The 5'7", 140 measurement is from the 2016 combine. The 5'8", 165 measurement is from last year's training camp.

Anyway ... I don't disagree Phillips will have to be productive in the NHL to stick around, but I think I'd he can be a 35-to-40-point guy with good puck possession, he'd be just fine. If 115 points is your benchmark for him to be better than Brett Ritchie, who had four, then I think you'll never be satisfied.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

The AHL updates their figures every season. The 5'7", 140 measurement is from the 2016 combine. The 5'8", 165 measurement is from last year's training camp.

So you're saying that the Flames don't use data from their own training camp?

Anyway ... I don't disagree Phillips will have to be productive in the NHL to stick around, but I think I'd he can be a 35-to-40-point guy with good puck possession, he'd be just fine. If 115 points is your benchmark for him to be better than Brett Ritchie, who had four, then I think you'll never be satisfied.

What does Brett Ritchie have to do with anything related to Matthew Phillips? Brett Ritchie and Matthew Phillips would have very different roles. Do you think that Matthew Phillips is going to go out there on the 4th line and have any impact in the bump-grind-intimidation game? If you do, you're delusional. Matthew Phillips' role will be to provide scoring support. Full stop. He will need to contribute on the positive side of the scoresheet and not be a detriment on the defensive side of the puck to make the team. That is where his size is going to be a problem because he is not going to be overly strong defending because of that deficiency. So he really better be able to score and make an impact in the offensive zone. He needs to show that in spades during this pre-season audition because he's going to have to be better than two of Dube, Milano, and Ruzicka. He isn't beating out Toffoli for anything and he isn't competing with Eakin. If Eakin hangs around it will be for his versatility, not his ability to fill the net. Eakin is battling with Ritchie and Rooney.

Personally, I think there is one slot open on the roster and the fight is going to boil down to whether Dube can step up on the right side and Ruzicka can fill in on the left side, or if the PTO Milano has to be signed to fill the gap on the right side. I don't see Phillips in the mix at all unless he absolutely blows people's minds and is a setup machine. I don't see the Flames going into the season with a 24 year old with one game under his belt playing on the rights side in the top six.

[TheScorpion]

Lanny, with respect, I think you're looking at this entire situation from a very narrow-minded point of view. You may have written him off, but the Flames haven't, otherwise he wouldn't be here.

[TheIronMaiden]

At what age do we consider forwards to be developed. 24?

the charts liked below suggests that 24-25 are peak point production ages in the NHL.

With that in mind, Phillips might be having his final shot at cracking the team.


https://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/3/...s-age-analysis

https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comm...e_aging_curve/

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by blankall

it's a huge factor. Making the NHL as a bottom 6 player is considerably easier than cracking a top 6 role. For bottom six roles, you're competing against guys like Lewis and potentially Lucic. For the top six role, the competition is much stiffer. At it's easiest you need to push a guy like Coleman out of that role, but even then Colemen brings more grit and can do things like crash the net, so Coleman has more potential top 6 roles he can perform.

Basically a player like Phillips has the role of high end playmaker available to him, and that's about it. So he has to out compete all the other high end playmakers, and probable be noticeably better than them at playmaking as he has little versatility.

That's exactly what I said

[Paulie Walnuts]

Milano is not sticking around to play on the 4th line if Phillips makes the team.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Milano is not sticking around to play on the 4th line if Phillips makes the team.

There's room for a lot of players if we're not too attached to has-beens and Brett Ritchie

Huberdeau - Lindholm - Phillips
Milano - Kadri - Toffoli
Mangiapane - Backlund - Coleman
Dube - Ruzicka - Duehr/Klapka

Huberdeau needs a speedy finisher a la Duclair to play with.

Toffoli needs playmakers to play with

Mangiapane line is flawless already

Then a kids line

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

At this point, I would probably put the hierarchy like this:

1. Toffoli
2. Dube
3. Ruzicka
T4. Phillips/Milano
5. Eakin
6. Pelletier

I would agree with the hierarchy but would put asterisks all over it as there has only been two split squad games.

I think how Ruzicka, Phillips, Milano and Pelletier play in the final four preseason games will trump any list that we would have up today.

[TheScorpion]

Absolutely. The games only get more important from here on out.

Also ... I would rather have Lucic on the fourth line than Duehr, that's for sure. And probably Lucic over Klapka, too.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

5'8", 165. The 5'7", 140 measurement is now over six years out of date.

And still wrong.

All these guys are padded ... he looks about 5'5"

My son played spike ball with him and towered over him (my son is 5'9")

[Paulie Walnuts]

I mean I am not a fan of Brett Ritchie, but you are setting yourself up for real disappointment if you believe Darryl Sutter is going to play 3 rookies, and bench Lucic, Lewis and Rooney.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Lanny, with respect, I think you're looking at this entire situation from a very narrow-minded point of view. You may have written him off, but the Flames haven't, otherwise he wouldn't be here.

I'm looking at this from the view that the team is trying to fill the lineup with capable NHL players and doing so with Sutter coaching the team. I recognize the reliance on size and speed that made the team successful last season. I don't see that changing in any way this year. Unless Phillips turns into an immediate offensive dynamo at the NHL level, they aren't going to give him the rope he needs to prove himself. There is the biggest knock against him. The top six needs a proven scorer and play in a Sutter system. I'm not sure Phillips is that guy, and if the Flames believed he was they would have inked him to deal that is not set to make him an UFA at the end of this season. The Flames have better options in camp, so Phillips will have to blow some doors off to earn a spot. There is a spot there to be earned, but he has to crawl over a number of players, all of which have other characteristics that make them a better fit for the team.