Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau Appreciation thread

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Tanking is a 1-2 year process????

No. Just...no.

It is 5, 6, 8, 10 years at times. Look up North. 1 year in the playoffs the last 14....3 different "rebuilds" in that time. Buffalo and Florida are not much behind.

Dump all your high priced/top line guys now...its 3 drafts worth of picks minimum to replace them....and that is IF you hit on the right picks to do so. Some of those guys can take 3 or 4 years to start to be NHL players whom can replace existing production.

2 years to rebuild is complete nonsense.

Hell look at the Rangers. They are in year 3 AND had the benefit of having 2 guys (Panarin and Fox) that would only sign there, have drafted top 10 the last 4 years and they are still arent close to being a playoff team, never mind a contender.

Its been 8 years since they drafted Mackinnon, Landeskog a decade ago....and they are just now (and last season) getting close.

Look at Toronto.

They spent year after year after year doing what we’re doing right now - except they were a better landing spot for free agents and had more money to spend on things around the hockey players - and they still failed...until they established a structured, stable front-office. Tanked, and began rebuilding. They did it quickly. The New York Rangers and Los Angeles Kings are good examples of being in that process now - years and years of trying to compete when they didn’t have the horses (anymore), but then stabilized their front offices and got to work. The Rangers unfortunately haven’t done well from a draft year perspective - which isn’t the case when we’re looking at 2022 and 2023.

The big differences between the rebuilds that were fast and effective vs. not? Organizational stability in the front office. If you rotate coaches and GMs out while rebuilding, you’re lost. Start the rebuild with the right coach and the right GM and you have a chance.

Have strong stability? Focus the tank for 2 years and get right back to work. It isn’t “2 years to rebuild” it’s 2 years of tanking is how you start a rebuild. You build from that. You get to start building up with actual foundational pieces in place, rather than what we did which was build on a rotten foundation...7 years, no success and no hope for the future.

Or, you waste away in irrelevancy doing what this organization has always done.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I guess people are under the delusion that we’re going to get a couple elite pieces back in exchange for Guadreau and Monahan.

The fanbase is going to melt down over the return we get for those guys.

Is it Ben Hanowski? Mark Cundari?

These guys both only suited up in the NHL for the Flames

Although Kenny Agostino is still around. 5 teams in 5 years since leaving the Flames, including one game with Toronto this year!

[DeluxeMoustache]

Toronto tanked for Matthews.

Flames would be tanking for a mystery box

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Toronto tanked for Matthews.

Flames would be tanking for a mystery box

2022 and 2023 are not a mystery box.

This season isn’t part of the tank. This season occurred through incompetence, not planning,

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Look at Toronto.

They spent year after year after year doing what we’re doing right now - except they were a better landing spot for free agents and had more money to spend on things around the hockey players - and they still failed...until they established a structured, stable front-office. Tanked, and began rebuilding. They did it quickly. The New York Rangers and Los Angeles Kings are good examples of being in that process now - years and years of trying to compete when they didn’t have the horses (anymore), but then stabilized their front offices and got to work. The Rangers unfortunately haven’t done well from a draft year perspective - which isn’t the case when we’re looking at 2022 and 2023.

The big differences between the rebuilds that were fast and effective vs. not? Organizational stability in the front office. If you rotate coaches and GMs out while rebuilding, you’re lost. Start the rebuild with the right coach and the right GM and you have a chance.

Have strong stability? Focus the tank for 2 years and get right back to work. It isn’t “2 years to rebuild” it’s 2 years of tanking is how you start a rebuild. You build from that. You get to start building up with actual foundational pieces in place, rather than what we did which was build on a rotten foundation...7 years, no success and no hope for the future.

Or, you waste away in irrelevancy doing what this organization has always done.

The funny thing is, while I don’t disagree the Leafs have relatively stable management and coaching, the current coach and GM are not exactly established guys. They went from Lou L and Babcock - on paper elite GM and coaching - to 33 year old Dubas and never was a coach in the NHL Keefe. Of course, most of the heavy lifting on the GM side was done by Lou. And I’m not sure I’m ready to anoint their rebuild as successful until I see them against a US team.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Look at Toronto...

Yes, let's look at Toronto.

Between 2008–12 they finished 24th, 24th, 29th, 22nd, and 26th. They somehow made the playoffs in 2013, but then followed up in 2014 by finishes of 23rd, 27th, and then finally 30th in the Auston Matthews sweepstakes year. Even though 2008–13 were not "rebuilding" years, they were technically drafting in lottery positions for nearly a decade before 2016—5th, 7th, 2nd (traded to Boston), 9th (traded to Boston), 5th; high enough to add core pieces Nazem Kadri and Morgan Reilly.

Brendan Shannahan was hired in 2014, and finally now, seven years later, they look like a team that can win a playoff round and compete for the Stanley Cup. Seven years later, after winning a draft lottery and signing a UFA top-line centre (those only come around once in a decade), and they just now look like they are ready. The only reason their "rebuild" looks like it took a few years is because they already had a few core pieces that they had drafted in the top-ten in the system, and because they were able to add the most highly sought centre to hit the UFA market in recent memory.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The funny thing is, while I don’t disagree the Leafs have relatively stable management and coaching, the current coach and GM are not exactly established guys. They went from Lou L and Babcock - on paper elite GM and coaching - to 33 year old Dubas and never was a coach in the NHL Keefe. Of course, most of the heavy lifting on the GM side was done by Lou. And I’m not sure I’m ready to anoint their rebuild as successful until I see them against a US team.

The measure of success is difficult, but the fact remains 90% of the last 20 Stanley Cup winners have players internally developed that were picked in that 1-3 slot. I’d say pretty strongly that’s a strong starting point to building a championship team.

From there it’s a hard road. You have to be one of the best managed teams in hockey, and you need a good heaping of luck. Without those foundational players picked in the top 3 though? Your odds are pretty damn bad.

Colorado is 8 years on as transplant said, and they haven’t won a Stanley Cup, but they’re a threat to and a very well managed team. Getting Mackinnon was step 1, but there’s no guarantees from there on out. They’ve had just as much/more success in those 8 years than we have, but look at our roster compared to theirs. Their future compared to ours. I know which team I’d choose to find success in the next few years, and it wasn’t the one that got spanked in round in of the 2019 playoffs.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Yes, let's look at Toronto.

Between 2008–12 they finished 24th, 24th, 29th, 22nd, and 26th. They somehow made the playoffs in 2013, but then followed up in 2014 by finishes of 23rd, 27th, and then finally 30th in the Auston Matthews sweepstakes year. Even though 2008–13 were not "rebuilding" years, they were technically drafting in lottery positions for nearly a decade before 2016—5th, 7th, 2nd (traded to Boston), 9th (traded to Boston), 5th; high enough to add core pieces Nazem Kadri and Morgan Reilly.

Brendan Shannahan was hired in 2014, and finally now, seven years later, they look like a team that can win a playoff round and compete for the Stanley Cup. Seven years later, after winning a draft lottery and signing a UFA top-line centre (those only come around once in a decade), and they just now look like they are ready. The only reason their "rebuild" looks like it took a few years is because they already had a few core pieces that they had drafted in the top-ten in the system, and because they were able to add the most highly sought centre to hit the UFA market in recent memory.

Everything prior to Shanahan doesn't mean anything. They had no vision, no foundational pieces, and continually made dumb trades and worse free agent signings (...kind of like the current Calgary Flames).

In Brendan Shanahan’s first season as PHO (2014/2015), Dave Nonis was his General Manager. The off-season highlights prior to the season included signing Leo Komarov (4 years, $8.85M) and Stephan Robidas (3 years, $9M). In February/March of 2015, Dave Nonis acquired a 1st round pick in the upcoming 2015 draft, a 4th round pick in 2015,a 5th round pick in 2015, a 2nd round pick in 2016, as well as conditional 6th and 7th round picks in 2016, Zach Hyman and a conditional 7th round pick in 2017. This was the “rip it down” season. They drafted 4th overall, and selected Mitch Marner.

Following Dave Nonis’ firing and Lou Lamoriello’s hiring, the sell-off continued. In the off-season of 2015, the Maples Leafs traded away Phil Kessel, Tim Erixon, Tyler Biggs and a 2nd round pick to Pittsburgh for Kasperi Kapanen, Scott Harrington, Nick Spaling, a 1st and 3rd round pick. 2015/2016 was officially a targeted tank season. They went into the year to suck on purpose, despite hiring a brand new elite coach that previous Spring. They would then go on to suck, and continue selling-off players that season and would acquire four additional 2nd round picks by the trade deadline while taking back no good NHL players in an effort to gain assets and tank their season as hard they possibly could.

After securing the #1 overall pick in the lottery, Toronto then sent Pittsburgh’s 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick in 2017 to Anaheim for Frederik Andersen. The 2016/2017 season had the Maple Leafs make the playoffs as an Eastern Conference Wild Card team – and they haven’t missed the playoffs since (unlike Calgary), and look poised to be a strong team for years to come (unlike Calgary).

We can say it was luck that they won the lottery, but really they just worked on giving themselves the best odds possible while also securing picks throughout the 2015 and 2016 draft through selling players to ensure they sucked, and gained assets while doing so. There was a legit plan that was executed.

For the Flames, mark this year as 2014/2015. This is the sell-off year. Tank in 2021/2022 and hope you nail the lottery - but keep adding picks where you can and bottom out as best as you can. If you don't win the lottery and land Shane Wright? Well you likely landed a pretty good piece anyways, and you can tank again in 2022/2023 and target Bedard and Michkov.

If we're lucky, we landed 1 (or more) of the 3 available generational talents in those two drafts. If we're unlucky, we barely missed those players but still managed to (likely) improve upon what we traded away when we sold the players we weren't winning with (Gaudreau/Giordano/Monahan) anyways. We also have players like Tanev and Lindholm we could parlay into some meaningful returns along the way if needed.

This isn't just about any random seasons to tank in. This is about 2021/2022 and 2022/2023. It's targeted. The moment that 2023 draft concludes? Get right back to work and kick it off by being aggressive in the same way Toronto was with the Andersen acquisition.

What's the actual alternative at this stage? Are we going to get a better NHL'er than Gaudreau by trading Gaudreau? That seems unlikely to me. Ditto with Monahan and Giordano. I struggle to see how this team improves in any meaningful way without going the tank route.

[Flamesfan05]

From appreciation to farewell thread?

[VladtheImpaler]

I like your post, Comix. Like, what is the alternative?
Gaudreau is a UFA in a year, so you either have to sign him to an unpleasant extension (given age/training regimen/etc) or trade him anyhow. Tkachuk has to be qualified at 9 in a year, so you either have to sign him to an unpleasant extension (a Tkachuk is not giving you a break on the $$$) or he walks himself to UFA. Thus, trade or overpay. Monahan seems broken, so either you keep him as overpriced 2nd line C or trade him for whatever you can get. Giordano is almost done, though still good. Backlund is still good (I will assume and give him the benefit of the doubt) but expensive and on the downside, given age. This is just in terms of pure asset value without going into character issues, which this core seems to have aplenty...
Otherwise, you have a decent supporting cast, a goalie that may or may not be worth his contract (better get Clark), and nothing exciting in the pipeline, except maybe some more middle of roster type players.
Yeah, I guess you can squeeze out another run at a playoff spot next year, and then you have to turn the roster over because of contracts and age anyhow. You do have Sutter, but you have a huge job turning this into a Sutter roster.
The Comix way is the smart way (especially given building timing), but I fear that way is not for us...

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Everything prior to Shanahan doesn't mean anything. They had no vision, no foundational pieces, and continually made dumb trades and worse free agent signings (...kind of like the current Calgary Flames)...

I don't believe it is that simple, and to be clear I am not in any way arguing against rebuilding. My point is that rebuilding is something that takes more than two years. I am happy to see it happen for this team, but it is not going to be a quick turnaround here. Even if the mandate at the end of the season will be to stock up on picks and prospects, and to jettison the core for the best lottery odds over the next three years (it won't happen), it is still almost certainly going to take several years beyond that of trial-and-error with finding the right fits for new players.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I don't believe it is that simple, and to be clear I am not in any way arguing against rebuilding. My point is that rebuilding is something that takes more than two years. I am happy to see it happen for this team, but it is not going to be a quick turnaround here. Even if the mandate at the end of the season will be to stock up on picks and prospects, and to jettison the core for the best lottery odds over the next three years (it won't happen), it is still almost certainly going to take several years beyond that of trial-and-error with finding the right fits for new players.

But I don't think you need to trade the entire core. This team is probably better than their record but they are also 5 points ahead of 2nd last in the league.

If you traded just Johnny, Monahan and Gio this team would be near the bottom next year as well. Especially if we traded these guys for picks and prospects. With these 3 guys gone it's not like there is nothing left on this team to build around and depending on the trades and how we draft I believe it can be fixed finishing at the bottom just this year and next year.

[Vinny01]

If the thought process is strip this thing down to the studs and tank for 2 years and the team is back to being competitive and has the pieces to contend long term that is beyond wishful thinking.

To tank to get a top pick Sutter and Markstrom need to go in addition to Monahan, Gaudreau and likely Tkachuk wants no part of being here through a tank.

The Flames tanked for 3 years in the last rebuild and currently have 5 guys picked in the top 6 from 13-16. They traded for 2 of those guys before either turned 24 and they are good parts of this team. Even getting 1st picks doesn’t mean teams will turn it around look at Edmonton, New Jersey, Buffalo.

I know the returns for Monahan and Gaudreau will be weak. I think the team is better suited to get what they can for those pieces (I want Gio moved as well but that won’t happen) and retool the roster for next year. Get guys that are willing to play and excel in the Sutter system and hire Ian Clarke to see if he can get Markstrom back to an elite level. Flames likely add a top 10 pick this offseason which has higher bust level than any top 10 pick in recent memory but maybe they do get a foundational piece?

Acquire picks and build for the long term but avoid the strip down and tank hoping that we land a generational player in the draft that will turn the fortunes around. Change the mix but don’t nuke this thing. There is a great coach, good goalie and some solid building blocks here. Make some changes and see what happens next year. If the team continues to trend in the wrong direction then fire and trade everyone and rebuild. Don’t do it after a bad year in a pandemic season. Obviously don’t quadruple down on this core and make significant changes but don’t set out to tank yet

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

But I don't think you need to trade the entire core. This team is probably better than their record but they are also 5 points ahead of 2nd last in the league.

If you traded just Johnny, Monahan and Gio this team would be near the bottom next year as well. Especially if we traded these guys for picks and prospects. With these 3 guys gone it's not like there is nothing left on this team to build around and depending on the trades and how we draft I believe it can be fixed finishing at the bottom just this year and next year.

I don’t think this team is that bad if they trade those 3. If they moved those guys for picks and prospects then maybe they could cobble together a package for Eichel? Eichel, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Mangiapane with the young guys on the blueline lead by the grizzled vet Tanev. Hopefully Philips, Pelletier, Zary all push for spots.

I think those 3 core members you mention are the 3 guys they should try and move but I think they can add pieces around the rest of the group and with an elite coach and goalie they could be very much in the mix for a divisional playoff spot next season.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

If the thought process is strip this thing down to the studs and tank for 2 years and the team is back to being competitive and has the pieces to contend long term that is beyond wishful thinking.

To tank to get a top pick Sutter and Markstrom need to go in addition to Monahan, Gaudreau and likely Tkachuk wants no part of being here through a tank.

The Flames ranked for 3 years in the last rebuild and currently have 5 guys picked in the top 6 from 13-16. They traded for 2 of those guys before either turned 24 and they are good parts of this team. Even getting 1st picks doesn’t mean teams will turn it around look at Edmonton, New Jersey, Buffalo.

I know the returns for Monahan and Gaudreau will be weak. I think the team is better suited to get what they can for those pieces (I want Gio moved as well but that won’t happen) and retool the roster for next year. Get guys that are willing to play and excel in the Sutter system and hire Ian Clarke to see if he can get Markstrom back to an elite level. Flames likely add a top 10 pick this offseason which has higher bust level than any top 10 pick in recent memory but maybe they do get a foundational piece?

Acquire picks and build for the long term but avoid the strip down and tank hoping that we land a generational player in the draft that will turn the fortunes around. Change the mix but don’t nuke this thing. There is a great coach, good goalie and some solid building blocks here. Make some changes and see what happens next year. If the team could to use to trend in the wrong direction then fire and trade everyone and rebuild. Don’t do it after a bad year in a pandemic season. Obviously don’t quadruple down on this core and make significant changes but don’t set out to tank yet

I think this is exactly how it will go. Gio probably won't get traded but I believe that Johnny will. I wouldn't be surprised if it is just Johnny out of the core too and I bet it won't be for just picks and prospects. If it is a prospect it will be for an NHL ready prospect that won't have franchise player potential.

I also think what happens after that could be determined by contract talks. Tkachuk can be resigned this summer. If he plays hardball and doesn't resign this summer than BT has to consider the situation he will be in next summer. If Tkachuk wants to stay he may resign this summer but if he does want to become an UFA sooner than later then he could be gone this summer too.

If both are gone then I want this team to tank but if Tkachuk resigns for a quality extension than this team probably would be ok to be more patient and not full rebuild

Monahan I'd also like to see moved but if the return isn't good I don't see the rush to give him away.

I look at trades for the past few years and I would like to see the flames try to capitalize on some young decent players that haven't broke out yet. I look back at the Granlund for Fiala trade and so many thought Nashville won that trade and nobody seemed to think Minnesota did well on that trade. It has been nothing but a steal for Minnesota, Fiala looks very good. I think BT needs to target some young RFAs that have yet to break out and can be resigned for $2-4 million and have good upside

Paval Zacha was a guy I mentioned before this season as an RFA that may have some upside and he is having a great year.

Rangers did well years ago getting Zibanejad as another player that had yet to break out and has turned into a first line center

These are the types of players the Flames need to be looking at.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I don’t think this team is that bad if they trade those 3. If they moved those guys for picks and prospects then maybe they could cobble together a package for Eichel? Eichel, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Mangiapane with the young guys on the blueline lead by the grizzled vet Tanev. Hopefully Philips, Pelletier, Zary all push for spots.

I think those 3 core members you mention are the 3 guys they should try and move but I think they can add pieces around the rest of the group and with an elite coach and goalie they could be very much in the mix for a divisional playoff spot next season.

How the devil would you essentially trade Gaudreau, Monahan and Giordano for Eichel, while still keeping Tkachuk, Lindholm, Mangiapane and all the prospects???? That would take some Gandalf-level wizardry.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

How the devil would you essentially trade Gaudreau, Monahan and Giordano for Eichel, while still keeping Tkachuk, Lindholm, Mangiapane and all the prospects???? That would take some Gandalf-level wizardry.

Flames could use their upcoming top 10 pick as a key piece in the deal and hopefully would still be able to draft later in the 1st thanks to a deal that sent Johnny to team X