Coaching, leadership and a top 5 list

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Psytic

But this was due to more zone time in the offensive end ie good offence is a good defense. I think i'm saying the same thing in a different way aren't I? We didn't lead the league in shot suppression did we? (I don't know I haven't looked just going by the eye test from last year).

The 2019 Flames were the third best 5 on 5 shot attempt suppression team in the NHL. They were pretty suffocating. Of the top four teams - San Jose, Boston, Calgary, and St. Louis, we were the only one not to be in the conference finals or beyond.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Psytic

But this was due to more zone time in the offensive end ie good offence is a good defense.

There is more to it than that, I think. The reason the Flames spent so much less time in their own zone last year is because they were magnificent at gaining control of the puck and moving it up ice quickly. This year the plan appears to be anticipating shots and standing in lanes in hopes of getting a loose puck along the boards. It looks like a fundamentally different approach, and it is terrible.

I think i'm saying the same thing in a different way aren't I? We didn't lead the league in shot suppression/ blocked shots did we? (I don't know I haven't looked just going by the eye test from last year).

Yeah, I guess in a sense we are saying the same thing, but I would not characterize "shot suppression/blocked shots" as great defense. Great defense is aggressive positional play that gains control of the puck and transitions it out of the zone.

[bax]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

The 2019 Flames were the third best 5 on 5 shot attempt suppression team in the NHL. They were pretty suffocating. Of the top four teams - San Jose, Boston, Calgary, and St. Louis, we were the only one not to be in the conference finals or beyond.

GranteedEV covered it really well, but it’s also important to acknowledge that leading the league in blocked shots isn’t really a good measure of team defensive.

I’m not analytical enough to understand all of these stats, but there is an article in the Athletic today stating basically the opposite of what some posters here are saying.

Apparently under Ward our offense has found their groove in getting quality chances and capitalizing, but it’s come at the cost of defensive play. The article later goes on to say the Flames are trending in the right direction and that Gaudreau has really started to come on.

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

The 2019 Flames were the third best 5 on 5 shot attempt suppression team in the NHL. They were pretty suffocating. Of the top four teams - San Jose, Boston, Calgary, and St. Louis, we were the only one not to be in the conference finals or beyond.

Interesting thanks. I had just noticed them having more zone time but didn't realize they were that much better at suppression. Well, I was always on the "we need a proven coach for once" train so this only solidifies that. I do think as others have stated that the school of Kris Russell and being reactive is bad in general however. Not allowing the other team to even take a shot attempt because your team has the puck all the time in the other teams end is good was what I meant.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

There is more to it than that, I think. The reason the Flames spent so much less time in their own zone last year is because they were magnificent at gaining control of the puck and moving it up ice quickly. This year the plan appears to be anticipating shots and standing in lanes in hopes of getting a loose puck along the boards. It looks like a fundamentally different approach, and it is terrible.

I wonder if the plan actively changed or if the personnel (Gio / Hamonic) lost a step.

Yeah, I guess in a sense we are saying the same thing, but I would not characterize "shot suppression/blocked shots" as great defense. Great defense is aggressive positional play that gains control of the puck and transitions it out of the zone.

I also don't trust shot blocking because blocked shots

1) might result in screening the goalie
2) create rebound attempts, and rebound attempts off those blocked shots might be higher percentage scoring chances than the initial shot. Goalies are highly specialized in rebound control, skaters are not.

I don't think Darryl Sutter was huge on shotblocking either from what I can remember.

[Enoch Root]

IMO, there have been two significant changes to the way they play that have had detrimental effects:

1) they completely abandoned the transitional game - sometime late last season, and particularly in the playoffs where they went ultra-conservative. It has never returned

2) they have gone back to the super passive defensive play in their own zone under Ward that we saw under Gulutzan. It is nauseating to watch.

I think both of these things have reduced the amount of time they spend in the opposition zone, and increased the amount of time they are spending in their own zone.

And when they do get the puck, the D to D to D to D passes, that force the forwards to stand still in the neutral zone, and then have no option except to chip it in when it finally does come to them, are vomit-inducing.

I find Ward hockey to be very similar to Gulutzan hockey. And it is so frustrating and boring and lacking in inspiration, that I don't even really enjoy it when they do manage to win a game.

[Jore]

Since this is the closest thread to one dedicated to general Flames roster discussion, I decided to post this here. Evolving Wild's Goals Above Replacement model has the Flames players as follows:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1227687476183158786

Obviously, Lucic at the top is the most surprising, but it also shows the huge discrepancy between our top 3 defenders (Gio, Brodie, Andersson), and the break-even or worse play provided by the bottom 3.

I think Kylington's even strength offense (his biggest detriment) will come around with more opportunity and comfort, but Hamonic is a huge liability defensively, and Hanifin just doesn't seem to do anything especially well except not take penalties and pitch in on the PP.

Mangiapane and Ryan's GAR results track closely to the eye test. Also surprising to me was how good Dube's underlying stats have been, and how poor Bennet's have been.

By this model, Stone has been responsible for -5 goals compared to an equivalent #7 defender, lmao.

[icecube]

Originally Posted by Jore

Since this is the closest thread to one dedicated to general Flames roster discussion, I decided to post this here. Evolving Wild's Goals Above Replacement model has the Flames players as follows:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1227687476183158786

Obviously, Lucic at the top is the most surprising, but it also shows the huge discrepancy between our top 3 defenders (Gio, Brodie, Andersson), and the break-even or worse play provided by the bottom 3.

I think Kylington's even strength offense (his biggest detriment) will come around with more opportunity and comfort, but Hamonic is a huge liability defensively, and Hanifin just doesn't seem to do anything especially well except not take penalties and pitch in on the PP.

Mangiapane and Ryan's GAR results track closely to the eye test. Also surprising to me was how good Dube's underlying stats have been, and how poor Bennet's have been.

By this model, Stone has been responsible for -5 goals compared to an equivalent #7 defender, lmao.

I don't know what any of that means, but if it means Lucic has been good, then no. But he hasn't been that bad either to my surprise. I'd still take him over Neal any day of the week this season.

[Jore]

Originally Posted by icecube

I don't know what any of that means, but if it means Lucic has been good, then no. But he hasn't been that bad either to my surprise. I'd still take him over Neal any day of the week this season.

Goals above replacement is a calculation that tries to measure a player's overall impact compared to a league average (replacement level) player with the same opportunities, ice time and so on. The league average player's impact is taken from a composite calculated from all players in the league from 2007-2019, a huge data set.

EVO stands for even strength offence: the amount of chances generated, goals and assists. EVD is even strength defence: how many shots and chances the player prevents. Again, it's all relative to a supposed league average player.

You can read more about the calculations here.

I wouldn't call this the last word on whether Lucic has been "good," but it's certainly noteworthy and encouraging imo