[PGT] All hail Lord Zebulon! Flames win it 2-1

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I guess to me it's obvious that when someone says a 'bottom 6 player' the implication is they are not talking about the absolute worst teams in the league. Like, duh, backlund isn't a bottom 6 player on the oilers or the kings or the senators.

You're using averages here to pour cold water on what is a very real criticism: that backlund on his current projected pace is a bottom 6 roster player for a good team. Further to that, you're supplying information that says not only is backlund not a top 6 player on a top 10 team, he's actually not a top 6 player on a playoff team, which is taking things much further than the point i made and in my opinion makes 'league average' comparisons appear even more inaccurate and frankly a bit dishonest, because no one would use a non playoff team as a justification for basically any team building strategy or judgement of talent.

I don't often feel comfortable speaking for other posters but in this instance I do. We all get what EE is saying here, that Backlunds decline from a 46 point player to a 36 player is a problem and has him slotted as a bottom 6 roster player on the flames who are otherwise a good team. Coincidentally, that was the line he found himself on after the 1st period in last night's game.

So yes, absolutely, on a league wide average backlund is a #5 guy. Clearly on a top 10 team he is not.

Your criteria was the delineation between 6 and 7, and it's also your criteria that that league average is what matters. Unless I'm missing something here, EE never suggested league wide average matters, that's the criteria you're using to call his opinion premature.

So it's nice that you think backlund is a top 6 forward. Unfortunately given your own evidence that means Calgary is not a playoff team.

That strikes me as a problem.

You're right it's me.

When someone says a player is a bottom six player I should just assume that they don't mean that ... they actually mean a bottom six player on a playoff team.

Will you accept my apology for not jumping straight to the correct answer like you so shrewdly managed?

Sorry for wasting your time.

Sarcasm aside ... he didn't say playoff team. I answered what he said. Along the way I admitted several times that if you want to add that qualifier ... then you're be correct. Why wasn't that enough for you?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I guess to me it's obvious that when someone says a 'bottom 6 player' the implication is they are not talking about the absolute worst teams in the league. Like, duh, backlund isn't a bottom 6 player on the oilers or the kings or the senators.

You're using averages here to pour cold water on what is a very real criticism: that backlund on his current projected pace is a bottom 6 roster player for a good team. Further to that, you're supplying information that says not only is backlund not a top 6 player on a top 10 team, he's actually not a top 6 player on a playoff team, which is taking things much further than the point i made and in my opinion makes 'league average' comparisons appear even more inaccurate and frankly a bit dishonest, because no one would use a non playoff team as a justification for basically any team building strategy or judgement of talent.

This is simply not true, though. Mikael Backlund is on an offensive pace that would have been good enough to qualify in the top-six of four of the NHL's top-ten teams last year (BOS, NSH, NYI, PIT), and eight of 16 playoff teams (CAR, CBJ, STL, DAL). Good enough offensively to play in the top-six of both teams who faced off in the 2019 SCF.

[CsInMyBlood]

Do people not realize that preventing a goal is just as important as scoring a goal? Hockey is not just about how many points you can put up.

Its also as if some people cannot grasp that when Backlund is on your line you get to take more offensive risks because he is there to cover up defensively when the other team starts their transition.

Does anyone actually think its a coincidence that Tkachuk is a -4 playing without Backlund on his line, while Johnny and Monahan are even 0 players since Backlund ended up on their line? Johnny is a -11 on the season, Monahan is a -12. Backlund has obviously totally stabilized the two of them. Or we can just pretend he hasn't.

As far as asking if Backlund is a top 6 player, how quickly some forget that last year he was ranked 35th in even strength points among centers. That puts him as a top 5 second line center in the league offensively. He also posted a +34 which ranked him as the TOP forward in the entire NHL in plus minus.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Top 10 teams last year, 36 points would rank:

9th on Tampa
7th on Calgary
6th on Boston
8th on Washington
6th on NYI
9th on San Jose
5th on Nashville (6th had they not traded away fiala)
6th on Pittsburgh (by a single point)
9th on Toronto
7th on St. Louis
7th on Winnipeg

Looking at forwards only here is the 6th best point producer for each team last year

Tampa - 47 points
Calgary - 38 points
Boston - 34 points
Washington - 46 points
NYI - 33 points
San Jose - 56 points
Nashville - 32 points
Pittsburgh - 35 points
Toronto - 43 points
St Louis - 36 points
Winnipeg - 37 points

So that's an average of 43.7 points for the 6th best point producing forward on the top 10 teams last year.

So 36 points would be a bit below average but at the same time 36 points is good enough to be a top 6 forward on 5 of the top 10 teams last year - including the Stanley Cup champions.

I think the real criticism isn't that he doesn't produce enough to be a top 6 forward, it's that he doesn't produce enough to be an elite top 6 center - even when you consider his defensive acumen.

Most top teams have two 50+ point producing centermen, and having two 70 point types is what has helped Boston, Washington, Pittsburgh, etc be successful in the past.

Tampa: Point - 92 Points, Stamkos - 98 Points (Stamkos does play wing sometimes)

Calgary: Monahan - 82 points, Backlund - 47 points

Boston: Bergeron - 79 points, Krejci - 73 points

Washington: Backstrom - 74 points, Kuznetsov - 72 points

NYI: Barzal - 62 points, Nelson - 52 points

San Jose: Couture - 70 points, Pavelski - 64 points

Nashville: Johansen - 64 points, Bonino - 35 points

Pittsburgh: Crosby - 100 points, Malkin - 72 points

Toronto: Tavares - 88 points, Matthews - 73 points

St Louis: O'Reilly - 77 points, Schenn - 54 points

Winnipeg: Scheifele - 84 points, Little - 41 points

So at 38 point production Backlund is fine as a top 6 forward, but not good enough as a top 6 center. However if Lindholm moves to C full time, and him and Monahan can each produce 70ish points on separate lines, and you have Backlund providing 40 ish points as either a top 6 WINGER, or a 3rd line C then that's not a bad spot for him.

That's the interesting thing for the Flames right now. The team has played 17 games since Geoff Ward has taken over as interim head coach - 11-5-1 in that time which is the 7th best point percentage in the league in that time.

That aligns with when Lindholm was given his own line to drive as a C, as well as Monahan & Ryan. Backlund has bounced between Wing/C in that time.

But in that time.

Lindholm: 17 GP - 6 goals - 15 points - 72 point pace
Monahan: 17 GP - 8 goals - 14 points - 68 point pace
Ryan: 17 GP - 3 goals - 11 points - 53 point pace

That's an elite C group. Plus you have Backlund who can move anywhere in the line up who has 3 goals / 10 points in that time which is a 48 point pace.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Top 10 teams last year, 36 points would rank:

9th on Tampa
7th on Calgary
6th on Boston
8th on Washington
6th on NYI
9th on San Jose
5th on Nashville (6th had they not traded away fiala)
6th on Pittsburgh (by a single point)
9th on Toronto
7th on St. Louis
7th on Winnipeg

7th on Calgary only because he'd be behind Mikael Backlund. And he'd be tied for 6th on St. Louis (though Schwartz has more PPG).

Or we could look at POs. He'd be 6th on the two teams that made the finals, as well as the team that beat out Calgary, and also the Isles who also won a round. He'd be 5th on Dallas, who won a round. He'd be 6th on Carolina who won two rounds. Most teams on which he be lowest (TB, Washington, Leafs, Jets) lost in round 1, except SJ, who went deep (albeit on an asterix).

[SuperMatt18]

Just as a top up on that note above - it's why I think a RW acquisition could mean a lot for this team.

C - Deep and set with Lindholm, Monahan, Backlund, Ryan
LW - Deep and set with Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Bennett, Lucic

RW - Yikes. No natural top 6 RWs but Mangiapane, Dube, Reider, Czarnik have filled in.

Really Flames should send down Rinaldo and call up Czarnik. Then if you could add a RH top 6 winger, even just a guy like Kase even that goes a long way.

Tkachuk - Lindholm (RH) - Mangiapane/Dube
Gaudreau - Monahan - RW Acquisition (RH)
Bennett - Backlund - Czarnik (RH)
Lucic - Ryan (RH) - Dube/Mangiapane
Reider

At that point you have a natural RH shot on every line, and you could roll 4 lines all game long. Which to me is what matters. As long as you have on natural RH shot on each line that gives you the balance you need.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

...Most teams on which he be lowest (TB, Washington, Leafs, Jets) lost in round 1, except SJ, who went deep (albeit on an asterix).

I find this little tidbit of information pretty interesting, and am eager to see speculations from others as to the best explanation. I suspect it has mostly to do with the close relationship between lower-scoring, "grinding" teams and the quality of hockey in the playoffs which favours this style of play. For all we know, the scratching and clawing that the Flames appear to be doing right now to stay in the chase is serving them very well for when the Playoffs start.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Just as a top up on that note above - it's why I think a RW acquisition could mean a lot for this team.

C - Deep and set with Lindholm, Monahan, Backlund, Ryan
LW - Deep and set with Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Bennett, Lucic

RW - Yikes. No natural top 6 RWs but Mangiapane, Dube, Reider, Czarnik have filled in.

Really Flames should send down Rinaldo and call up Czarnik. Then if you could add a RH top 6 winger, even just a guy like Kase even that goes a long way.

Tkachuk - Lindholm (RH) - Mangiapane/Dube
Gaudreau - Monahan - RW Acquisition (RH)
Bennett - Backlund - Czarnik (RH)
Lucic - Ryan (RH) - Dube/Mangiapane
Reider

At that point you have a natural RH shot on every line, and you could roll 4 lines all game long. Which to me is what matters. As long as you have on natural RH shot on each line that gives you the balance you need.

Switching out Czarnik for a guy making league minimum hurts the acquisition space for that top six though. You want to accrue as much space as you can.

Plus I'm not a Czarnik fan ...

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Switching out Czarnik for a guy making league minimum hurts the acquisition space for that top six though. You want to accrue as much space as you can.

Plus I'm not a Czarnik fan ...

The Switch bigger picture would actually be Czarnik and Janko... so you actually save money there.

[Flash Walken]

czarnik doesn't move the needle for me, either.

Dube is better and cheaper and the team has long-term incentive to want to give him developmental minutes.

IMO, Czarnik passing through waivers was basically it for him on the flames/the league. Maybe he pops up in Buffalo or Ottawa next year but he's not an NHL player IMO.

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Looking at forwards only here is the 6th best point producer for each team last year

Tampa - 47 points
Calgary - 38 points
Boston - 34 points
Washington - 46 points
NYI - 33 points
San Jose - 56 points
Nashville - 32 points
Pittsburgh - 35 points
Toronto - 43 points
St Louis - 36 points
Winnipeg - 37 points

So that's an average of 43.7 points for the 6th best point producing forward on the top 10 teams last year.

So 36 points would be a bit below average but at the same time 36 points is good enough to be a top 6 forward on 5 of the top 10 teams last year - including the Stanley Cup champions.

Hate to get involved since I think this is mostly a marginal quibble. However, with lumpy data like these it's best to look at the median.

[AC]

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

czarnik doesn't move the needle for me, either.

Dube is better and cheaper and the team has long-term incentive to want to give him developmental minutes.

IMO, Czarnik passing through waivers was basically it for him on the flames/the league. Maybe he pops up in Buffalo or Ottawa next year but he's not an NHL player IMO.

I agree with this. Any benefit from Czarnik's right shot doesn't compare with Dube's willingness to go to the corners and the front of the net. Dube's better defensively, and has chemistry with Ryan, Lucic, and, IMO, Monahan.

I think posters who cite Czarnik as going well previously are selectively remembering his decent outings, but while he had a few, Dube is much more consistent. Heck, Reider is more consistent and useful IMO.