What “save the season” trade would you like?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Why?

What difference would it make to them if they are paying "player X" 2 million and James Neal 3 million vs paying Lucic 5.25 million?

They aren't paying Lucic $5.25M. He's had massive bonuses which have greatly decreased the actual cash payout.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Bingo

His deal was front loaded with bonus money. My totals are the actual dollars left to pay the guy.

You certainly don't have to agree with my speculation, and I basically called it that myself. But it's not out of question given the Treliving hint that he couldn't buy Neal out, and that the Flames made a deal to save real dollars.

OK...but that has zero to do with the cap hit and as i stated makes it a small win for ownership, but a disaster for the franchise in regards to building a successful team. Crippling some would even say.

As for the "hint" from BT, i would look at that and say he simply refused to admit the massive mistake he was seeing he made and then attempted to make chicken salad out of chicken crap. A desperate move at that point because he didnt have the job security he has now. (which is why i suggest he would like a do-over on this trade)

In the end, all he has done is trade away Neal for a guy that cant play anymore whilst saving the owners a few million dollars over 4 years and watching that acquisition be part of a team wide implosion that has many calling for his head. He also has no way out from what's left on the Lucic deal. Thats a way bigger problem IMO, than a one dimensional player who is scoring goals for more money. Last I checked goals still matter in hockey games even if the guy getting them does little else.

Realizing this is getting into "dead horse" territory, I will leave my thoughts on this at that. You can point to WAR and all those stats you like and maybe in the end this plays out that Neal is somehow worse than Lucic when all is said and done, but the fact remains that at this point...it is a terrible deal for the Flames on-ice product now and in the future regardless of how bad Neal was last year.

Since Jan 1, 2018

Lucic has 7 goals in 145 games. 32 pts.

Neal has 28 goals in 121 games. 52 pts.

[dino7c]

So based on this thread the Flux Capacitor is the save the season trade

[Flash Walken]

When the most salient defense of the lucic trade is that is saves one of the wealthiest ownership groups in the league a few million bucks, you're signalling to the rest of us just how bad the trade is.

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by jonkaupp

the bengals also only have two scouts listed on their website. holy #### i was more spot on than I thought with that comparison

And Loob is over seas so its more like 1 guy then for pro scouting?? And he came out of the Oilers system.

[dino7c]

So Neal has more goals playing on the powerplay with McDavid and Drai than Lucic does playing with Bennett, Ryan, Janko ect.

Thanks tips

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Psytic

Alright I stand corrected my apologies to Button. Looking at the Flames website we only have two pro scouts???? maybe that is the issue right there doesn't seem like a lot for evaluating trades and players to target for the GM to work with.

Yeah 2 listed pro scouts, but be assured all of Treliving, Conroy, Pascal, Maloney, Snow and others are all defacto pro scouts as well.

[jonkaupp]

Originally Posted by Psytic

And Loob is over seas so its more like 1 guy then for pro scouting?? And he came out of the Oilers system.

Maybe they have more behind the scene, who knows. Just seems absurd for a major sports organization to have so little invested in one of the most important aspects of the organization. Especially in an international sport with so much to check out.

[topfiverecords]

Can OP or a mod change the thread title to Lucic/Neal Trade Thread? Thanks.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

I’m not trying to be a dick, but as someone who has worked in the numbers biz for a long time, I do have to call baloney when I see it. Stats are fine as an explanatory tool for natural observations, but they shouldn’t be used as a way to redirect away from those observations when they don’t suit you, which is a drum I see you beating any time this topic comes up.

What we can agree on is that both players look bad from the eye test... But one is contributing and the other is not. You can argue that Neal may well be a net negative 5 on 5 whereas Lucic is just treading water. I’m fine with that, and then it becomes a question of the degree of badness being in favour of one or the other. But that conclusion has to be stipulated against the fact that he is finding a way to help his team in other ways, whereas Lucic is not. These are basic facts that no amount of statistical wand-waving can change. How is that being a dick?

So you've worked with numbers to the extent that you get to call baloney? That's a pretty good perch you have yourself on there.

This isn't me ignoring all kinds of good stats on Neal and then finding one that is bad and trumpeting it. He's a huge minus (6th worst in hockey), his xGF% is falling nightly. He started with decent possession numbers but those are fading too.

A War model just weights and summarizes all of his game, and he's the worst five on five offensive contributor in hockey. Looking at Calgary he's worse than both Frolik and Jankowski this year ... two players that I think all of us would agree have struggled.

This isn't wand waving ... it's available information that easily matches the eye test. If you want to ignore those sources that's up to you, but don't accuse of others of trickery when Neal's struggles are in plain sight.

His goal production isn't enough to make up for his five on five play.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

They're only paying Lucic $4.75M a season, plus they get $0.75 covered by the Oilers so out of pocket is $4M per season.

Neal at $5.75 covered 50% is $2.9M per season. So you'd have to replace the guy with a $1.1 player to make your point.

But to be honest I think Treliving's UFA gaffs have them just not wanting to pay guys not to play for the team anymore. If that assumption is true, they may have set a retention level at say 25% and no more.

Nope, this is wrong. The Flames are absorbing $5.25M a season (cap hit). Lucic was signed by the Oilers for a cap hit of $6M a season. The Oilers are retaining $750K, making the Flames responsibility $5.25M. This is the number that counts as it directly impacts the moves the Flames can make. Milan Lucic is a $5.25M player to the Flames. They are saving $500K off Neal, but the savings are negated by the absolute hole Lucic has been this season. No defense of this trade. It is one of the worst in the team's history, right up there with Savard for Zoolander, because it accomplished nothing and continues to hurt the team.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

When the most salient defense of the lucic trade is that is saves one of the wealthiest ownership groups in the league a few million bucks, you're signalling to the rest of us just how bad the trade is.

It's not a defense of the trade, it's a reality of the situation.
If the owners weren't willing to send cap or buy Neal out - then that's their decision to make.
Keeps coming back to the fact that signing Neal was the mistake. The trade didn't make it much better or worse. But if they wanted Neal gone, and weren't willing to buy him out or send cap across, it was probably the only way to make it happen.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by jonkaupp

Lol. Hes not the ‘biggest guy in the league’ but even if he was and that’s your reasoning why you want him on your team...lmao

Way to double down on two condescending LOL insertions!

That's impressive in a one sentence answer!

[zarrell]

Originally Posted by Bingo

His deal was front loaded with bonus money. My totals are the actual dollars left to pay the guy.

You certainly don't have to agree with my speculation, and I basically called it that myself. But it's not out of question given the Treliving hint that he couldn't buy Neal out, and that the Flames made a deal to save real dollars.

I agree with all your points on Neal, but if we are discussing a players worth and value to a team the only number that matters is cap hit. Real dollars only matter to cheap owners.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

They aren't paying Lucic $5.25M. He's had massive bonuses which have greatly decreased the actual cash payout.

Yes i realize that....again i dont give a crap about actual dollars though. He counts 5.25 against the cap, thats all that matters.

[jonkaupp]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Way to double down on two condescending LOL insertions!

That's impressive in a one sentence answer!

Sometimes it is necessary

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by New Era

Nope, this is wrong. The Flames are absorbing $5.25M a season (cap hit). Lucic was signed by the Oilers for a cap hit of $6M a season. The Oilers are retaining $750K, making the Flames responsibility $5.25M. This is the number that counts as it directly impacts the moves the Flames can make. Milan Lucic is a $5.25M player to the Flames. They are saving $500K off Neal, but the savings are negated by the absolute hole Lucic has been this season. No defense of this trade. It is one of the worst in the team's history, right up there with Savard for Zoolander, because it accomplished nothing and continues to hurt the team.

Both the cap hit and the actual monetary amounts matter.
The cap hit matters most to fans
But the owners appeared to have cared about the other.
So both define the trade.
I don't know how it can be considered a horrible trade when it's basically an exchange of terrible players. Savard for Zoolander was a quality player being traded for nothing.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

It's not a defense of the trade, it's a reality of the situation.
If the owners weren't willing to send cap or buy Neal out - then that's their decision to make.
Keeps coming back to the fact that signing Neal was the mistake. The trade didn't make it much better or worse. But if they wanted Neal gone, and weren't willing to buy him out or send cap across, it was probably the only way to make it happen.

That doesn't make any sense though....they are still spending that money sans 3 million over 4 years as i understand it, and if thats where the state of the franchise rests...well...might as well close the doors right now.

[Flamenspiel]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The really painful what-if from that summer is the Flames had a deal with Reaves first - a deal that would have made it unlikely they could sign Neal too. Reaves figured he was on his way to Calgary, but Vegas matched. Then Treliving, with that cap space burning a hole in his pocket, signed Neal.

I like Lucic. But Reaves + $2.5 mil cap space >>> Lucic.

Yes this, except the Reeves contract expires this year. He probably resigns for less or they have the choice of letting him go.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by transplant99

OK...but that has zero to do with the cap hit and as i stated makes it a small win for ownership, but a disaster for the franchise in regards to building a successful team. Crippling some would even say.

As for the "hint" from BT, i would look at that and say he simply refused to admit the massive mistake he was seeing he made and then attempted to make chicken salad out of chicken crap. A desperate move at that point because he didnt have the job security he has now. (which is why i suggest he would like a do-over on this trade)

In the end, all he has done is trade away Neal for a guy that cant play anymore whilst saving the owners a few million dollars over 4 years and watching that acquisition be part of a team wide implosion that has many calling for his head. He also has no way out from what's left on the Lucic deal. Thats a way bigger problem IMO, than a one dimensional player who is scoring goals for more money. Last I checked goals still matter in hockey games even if the guy getting them does little else.

Realizing this is getting into "dead horse" territory, I will leave my thoughts on this at that. You can point to WAR and all those stats you like and maybe in the end this plays out that Neal is somehow worse than Lucic when all is said and done, but the fact remains that at this point...it is a terrible deal for the Flames on-ice product now and in the future regardless of how bad Neal was last year.

Since Jan 1, 2018

Lucic has 7 goals in 145 games. 32 pts.

Neal has 28 goals in 121 games. 52 pts.

You are certainly allowed to assume and speculate as well ... I've never claimed any kind of authority on knowing what the owners are thinking. But the result of this trade seems to suggest the owners valued real dollars over cap space going forward.

Neal is almost shooting 50% on the PP, that's where 3/4 of his goals have come from. It doesn't take a huge leap to see a model that weights what he's doing on the ice would see what we all see ... and that's that he's lost five on five.

Calgary has a top line problem, and a getting for games problem. They don't have a third line problem. Lucic has been as advertised as a bottom six forward.