Pronman: Flames with the 29th ranked farm system

[Bingo]

Plus I think it needs to be stated there's a difference between pessimism and someone that tries to make an argument that has holes in it.

If person X doesn't think any of the Calgary prospects will end up being upper roster players what am I going to say? I disagree! That's about it.

Whereas suggesting they won't be good because of reason X and reason X is pretty easy to refute once you discharge the evident spin or omissions is a very different thing.

Nobody should be attacked, that's easy to say. But even a challenge should be different between just not believing vs trying to thwart optimism by posting arguments that don't hold water.

[Strange Brew]

^ Agree with that Bingo. And in my experience, some of the biggest fans can be “pessimimistic”. It s not a character flaw, nor a reflection on whether someone is a troll. The world is made up of many different perspectives informed by different experiences. It’s certainly best when someone provides the logic and facts behind their opinion, and demonstrates respect for those with opposing viewpoints.

[iloveicedhockey]

The No Gooders farm came in at 22. Bear, Benson, Mcleod rank the same as kylington, Andersson, Valimaki and mangiapane. Bouchard and Yamamoto the tier above.

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out because being a Homer, I'd rank Bouchard just behind Valimaki and bear, Mcleod and Benson below Andersson and kylington, even though they have a better shot at making it sooner, given the shambolic defence up there.

I'm also interested to see how Phillips does relative to Yamamoto, who was two tiers above (understandable), and sprong and mangiapane (two tiers different).

At least it keeps us chatting in the summer months.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by iloveicedhockey

The No Gooders farm came in at 22. Bear, Benson, Mcleod rank the same as kylington, Andersson, Valimaki and mangiapane. Bouchard and Yamamoto the tier above.

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out because being a Homer, I'd rank Bouchard just behind Valimaki and bear, Mcleod and Benson below Andersson and kylington, even though they have a better shot at making it sooner, given the shambolic defence up there.

I'm also interested to see how Phillips does relative to Yamamoto, who was two tiers above (understandable), and sprong and mangiapane (two tiers different).

At least it keeps us chatting in the summer months.

Even Bouchard and Valimaki in the same tier would have made more sense to me ... but yeah I have a bias.

He does have a recency bias himself when it comes to prospects. Players can fall back from their draft year, but has Valimaki done that?

I'd have Andersson at least ahead of the Oilers equivalents of Bear, McLeod and Benson. Dube should be as well even with recency bias ... Mangiapane down a tier on size?

Seems pretty hit and miss. Most of the twitter world was shocked Edmonton didn't pop up sooner.

[Jiri Hrdina]

I think where you rank the Oilers hinges on how you feel about Bouchard and Yamamoto, who are two prospects that I think generate a wide range of opinions.
Both have tremendous upside, but there are also some valid concerns about whether or not that will achieve that potential.
But if a "ranker" is a fan of those two, I can see why the Oil would move ahead.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Bingo

He does have a recency bias himself when it comes to prospects. Players can fall back from their draft year, but has Valimaki done that?

Marginally, if at all. But Bouchard was generally seen as a probable top ten pick, and Valimaki wasn't. I am with you, because I am pretty wary of Bouchard's ability to skate in the NHL, but the consensus at the time of both players' drafts backs up the idea that Bouchard is a tier above.

I'd have Andersson at least ahead of the Oilers equivalents of Bear, McLeod and Benson. Dube should be as well even with recency bias ... Mangiapane down a tier on size?

If you read Pronman's preface to the rankings, his focus on ceilings as opposed to floors makes it obvious that a player like Andersson is going to suffer by those criteria, while a player like Yamamoto is going to be favoured.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Marginally, if at all. But Bouchard was generally seen as a probable top ten pick, and Valimaki wasn't. I am with you, because I am pretty wary of Bouchard's ability to skate in the NHL, but the consensus at the time of both players' drafts backs up the idea that Bouchard is a tier above.

If you read Pronman's preface to the rankings, his focus on ceilings as opposed to floors makes it obvious that a player like Andersson is going to suffer by those criteria, while a player like Yamamoto is going to be favoured.

I'm not really even arguing that Bouchard is below Valimaki or even equal ... but the tiering has enough room for both of them in my opinion

Very good prospect: Projects as a top-six forward/top-four defenseman/starting goaltender.
Legit NHL prospect: Projects to play, probably not in a top role, but is close enough that he could realistically get there.

I think Valimiaki should be in the first tier and not the second. He's been projected as a 3/4 defenseman from the start.

[blankall]

People are making way too big a deal out of "farm system" rankings. It's absolutely true that if you draft well, you're players will graduate to the NHL and not be in your farm system. The vast majority of players in farm systems are project players.

Rankings are all over the place too:

http://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nhl/n...l16bxvtds5dacu

Winnipeg at 11.

Ranking farm systems is absurd. Who can predict how your draft pick from 2016, who's been in the AHL will actually be in the NHL. It's a total crap shoot. Valimaki could develop into a #1 d-man...he could never be an NHL level d-man. Who knows.

If you go through the list, the big difference is that Calgary traded away their 2018 pick. #1 is Buffalo...who have Dahlin on the list...that's a shocker. Buffalo's #3 prospect is Alex Nylander, who is not so great and is further behind in his development than Bennett.

[Bingo]

Bouchard ...

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BlackConte...hon-mobile.mp4

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Bingo

...Seems pretty hit and miss. Most of the twitter world was shocked Edmonton didn't pop up sooner.

The Oilers have a long and storied history of utterly ruining their NHL prospects. As a result I find myself having a difficult time rating their farm system much higher than the very bottom.

[Strange Brew]

Has anyone ever done a ranking of team’s young players (say 24 and under)? That would be informative.

Prospect rankings are useful since it gives you an idea of help that could be on the way, but overall ranking of young players could be a projection of a team’s likely improvement.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Has anyone ever done a ranking of team’s young players (say 24 and under)? That would be informative.

Prospect rankings are useful since it gives you an idea of help that could be on the way, but overall ranking of young players could be a projection of a team’s likely improvement.

When the Hockey News does their Future Watch it ranks teams both on the basis of the prospect base and the young players on the roster, though I can't recall what the cut off point is for the latter.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think Valimiaki should be in the first tier and not the second. He's been projected as a 3/4 defenseman from the start.

Yeah, those descriptions don't really fit either player. Valimaki's PGPS when he was drafted was something like 70%, so that's a 70% chance to play 200 games in the NHL in SOME role. If you say there's a 2 in 3 chance that if he does make an NHL career of it it'll be in a top 4 role, then you get a 46% chance overall - or "probably not" a top 4 defenseman by a thin margin. On the other hand, this suggests he's most likely a top 4 guy by cohorts (16-11), but that 3rd pairing is the most likely outcome of the three:



So you probably could make an argument either way when he was drafted, and I don't think much has changed in his outlook since then.

But I can't really argue with you about putting him in the higher category, I probably would too. If I had to bet on Valimaki's most likely outcome it would be as a solid second pairing guy - a win for the Flames is a career like Hjalmarsson's (probably with a few more points and a bit less shot suppression, as they're not the same players even though they sort of project to have similar roles).

EDIT: Also worth noting - and I'm not sure, maybe someone posted this - Pronman had Valimaki ranked 23rd in his draft class, which was lower than consensus. So he's consistently been less a fan of Valimaki than other people who do this stuff.

Originally Posted by Bingo

Bouchard ...

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BlackConte...hon-mobile.mp4

Yeah, this sort of stuff is easy to find on Bouchard, which is why it was ridiculous for Edmonton writers to suggest he should make the NHL this year. He cannot skate. That's going to be the big task for whatever team he plays for over the next two years - teach him to skate. It's not impossible; other players who were weak skaters in their draft year have done it. It's going to take time though.

[edslunch]

My perception is that the more vocal pessimistic fans tend to have a border-line irrational obsession about very specific things or players and never miss an opportunity to make a negative comment on the subject, but few slag everything related to the Flames. I guess that makes sense since if you hate everything you probably wouldn’t be here.

On the other hand the more vocal optimists tend to come off as white knights, countering any and all slights against the team.

Both types of posters lose credibility in my eyes. I prefer a fan who is generally optimistic (we’re fans after all) but is happy to acknowledge and discuss shortcomings.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

EDIT: Also worth noting - and I'm not sure, maybe someone posted this - Pronman had Valimaki ranked 23rd in his draft class, which was lower than consensus. So he's consistently been less a fan of Valimaki than other people who do this stuff.

Which is certainly his right ...

I just have a feeling that the Flames likely go from 29th to something like 20th if that one adjustment (Valimaki up a category) happened.

[Strange Brew]

I think it’s a little arbitrary to use categories and tiers in evaluating prospects when really the difference is more a matter of degrees.

Just like a ranking of 29 shouldn’t be interpreted as very precise, it just gives you a general view of how he views Flames prospects relative to other teams. If he had a significantly better opinion of Valimaki then I’m sure he would have Flames higher.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Just bumping this up as the whole list is out. Corey has some biases that definitely affect the rankings, but he's up front with them so you can easily adjust things where you disagree with him. Overall this is a fantastic series of articles.

https://theathletic.com/459786/2018/...stem-rankings/

[CaptainCrunch]

Question? Why are we posting article links to the Athletic when is behind a paywall? I know that we can't publish content from it because that's a bad thing. But it seems impossible to debate or review information that people are using to debate with.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

A lot of people here have subscriptions to the Athletic. Those people can click on the thread and talk about the articles. People who don't are not inconvenienced, because they do not have to click on the thread.

[Split98]

Weird that the list reads backwards as upcoming Cup winners.