I don't understand why so many Oiler fans think that the salary cap is drastically going to go up. I have read that Vegas will increase the cap (I guess they don't understand that Vegas adds to the denominator as well as the numerator). I have read that they are expecting a big US TV contract (even if that is the case, the new money will not kick in until 2022). The Canadian TV deal does have an escaltor clause, but even that escalator at best adds a little under 1 million a year to the cap (everything else being equal). I just fail to see a world where there are 5 percent increases each year (which would mean on a 75 million dollar cap that league revenue would increase by about 338 million dollars next year. The Rogers contract would contribute about 50 million of that, where does the other 288 million come from?
It seems to me that it is unlikely that the cap goes above 85 to 90 million at any point in time during this deal, he will be getting at least 10 percent of cap in all likelihood for most of this deal. Between him and McDavid it will be between 22-27 percent of the value of the cap for both contracts.
This contract will look very bad if Leon goes below 70 points a season, he needs to be a PPG guy with this contract.
I read somewhere that Vegas won't count in the cap calculation for the first few years.
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So what you're saying is you don't think Drai is a first line player. I probably agree.
But if he is the then oilers have the best player in the game and another PPG player locked up for $20 million. That's not bad, it's good actually. Which was my point.
All the rest, about the oilers cap structure or the comparison to the Flames is besides my point.
I do think that it's on with the Oil. Have to think that a prime McDavid and a real deal Talbot will do a lot of damage. Or maybe not, maybe you can't win without solid transition D. We'll see.
McDavid is what he is. Talbot is a little less certain, but if he keeps playing the way he played last season, then those two can carry a team a long way.
But those things don't justify Draisaitl getting $8.5M on a second contract, for one good season.
Some challenges? Almost everything CC hit on was accurate. Draisaitl needs to be at least a PPG player for that salary to be palatable.
The Oilers D corps remains among the bottom of the league. With Sekera out until after Christmas it gets even worse.
The Oilers have 27 million tied up in three forwards. By comparison Calgary has 21 million tied up in their entire top 4 defense, which is among the best in the league. .
you keep saying this but until they actually prove it on the ice, the only thing the Flames defense will be known for is running goalie after goalie out of town
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Originally Posted by MisterJoji
For the Oilers to hope to continue to grow they are going to need some of their prospects graduate and excel. A prospect group that is widely considered near the bottom of the league. After JP, who is their next best prospect?
Kailer Yamamoto
Ethan Bear
Caleb Jones
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Originally Posted by MisterJoji
Charelli has a proven history of poor cap management and more often than not comes up as the loser in trades.
Chia takes big swings...sometimes he misses (Reinhart) sometimes he wins (Talbot, Maroon, Kassian, signing Benning, Caggulia)
no different then any other GM
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Originally Posted by MisterJoji
Here's what the Oilers have going for them:
• Best player in the game, generational talent.
• Vezina caliber goaltender.
• Draisaitl (praying to Jebus he doesn't regress, even a little).
•Up and coming D-man at a good price (Klefbom).
That's about it. Could probably throw Maroon in there as well but last season was a major departure from his career norms and if he repeats his play from last year, there's another guy that Charelli probably won't get for less than 7 million.
geeze thats it? the top scoring duo in the league at 21 and 20, a 40 win goalie and a top pairing signed for less than 8.5 million and both are under 25 and getting better...
the core is set
The Oilers should have kept Draisaitl as the 2nd line center and away from McDavid. Having him play with McDavid probably cost the Oilers about $2 million more per season. I can guarantee you that the Oilers will not be playing Puljujarvi or Strome with McDavid next season. They can't afford it. Now they are pretty much forced to keep Draisaitl on his line. Maroon will stay on his line this season, but will most likely be gone afterwards because he will be a UFA.
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geeze thats it? the top scoring duo in the league at 21 and 20, a 40 win goalie and a top pairing signed for less than 8.5 million and both are under 25 and getting better...
the core is set
Umm.... yes? Five players down, 14 to go. If the first line and first pairing is playing 30+ minutes a night with Talbot playing 70+ games a year, you're gonna be pretty good until they fall over dead of exhaustion. But if not, I dunno theyre kind of in trouble.
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I still see the Oilers as having no real #1 d-man. Which you'd think would be alarming with how they're paying some of these forwards. You can't fool me about Russell, he was a Flame for a bit of time, and ideally he is a number 5 (or on the current Flames he'd be my #6/7). I think everyone's playing a spot higher than they should on that defense.
There's more to the game (/winning) than guys up front that can score fancy goals. That's why you don't throw all your cash at that area. Eventually the average to weak defense will be reflected in the outcome.
But if he is the then oilers have the best player in the game and another PPG player locked up for $20 million. That's not bad, it's good actually. Which was my point.
Except for that crazy little thing called context.
When you look at the context of paying two players that much money, the cap space / use becomes that much more important.
And they have a ridiculous amount of money locked into players not worth their salary.
So if you want to have blinders on, you can think it's great. When you look at the context, they're taking a big gamble on a player who had one good year playing next to McDavid, and the next few years are going to be extremely difficult for them with the cap hits they have.
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you keep saying this but until they actually prove it on the ice, the only thing the Flames defense will be known for is running goalie after goalie out of town
I get it's easy for you and cronies to toss this cookie cutter statement out there without having watched much, but Giordano and Hamilton are one of the best pairings in the league already. We're adding Hamonic to play with Brodie, and moving a solid #4 to our bottom pairing in Stone.
Any way you shake it, it's an envious defensive core, and to suggest otherwise is just trying to put a whiny bitter Oiler fan spin on things.
you keep saying this but until they actually prove it on the ice, the only thing the Flames defense will be known for is running goalie after goalie out of town
The Flames d-core had much better advanced metrics than the Oilers lol.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterJoji View Post
For the Oilers to hope to continue to grow they are going to need some of their prospects graduate and excel. A prospect group that is widely considered near the bottom of the league. After JP, who is their next best prospect?
you keep saying this but until they actually prove it on the ice, the only thing the Flames defense will be known for is running goalie after goalie out of town
Find me one credible source that thinks Calgary's goalie problem is due to their D. All the metrics show they have a great defense group. I'm sorry but Gio/Brodie/Hamilton/etc. didn't cause Hiller and Elliott to forgot how to be a competent goaltender.
Quote:
Kailer Yamamoto
Ethan Bear
Caleb Jones
Man, those are your examples? I think you just proved my point. Valimaki, Fox and probably Andersson are all better D prospects than Bear and Jones.
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Chia takes big swings...sometimes he misses (Reinhart) sometimes he wins (Talbot, Maroon, Kassian, signing Benning, Caggulia)
no different then any other GM
Sometimes he misses ... a lot. Seguin for Loui Eriksson. Boychuk to the Islanders. Versteeg to Chicago. Running Boston into major cap problems where they had to trade Hamilton for picks. Lucic at 6 million until he's 35. Eberle for Strome and cap savings. Using those cap savings on Kris Russell. That's a laundry list of bad moves.
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geeze thats it? the top scoring duo in the league at 21 and 20, a 40 win goalie and a top pairing signed for less than 8.5 million and both are under 25 and getting better...
the core is set
Draisaitl is still a huge question mark if he can produce without McDavid. Klefbom has potential but he's only a top pairing guy on the Oilers. He'd be a #3/4 guy on the Flames right now. The Oilers have a 24 man roster right now at 66.7 million. Next year they have 13 players under contract for 60.8 million. You need to fill 11 spots with 15 million. Maroon will need a raise from 1.5. Caggulia, Strome, Nurse and Benning all need to be qualified. Who from their prospect pool is ready to play meaningful minutes on an ELC next year? The Oilers window is pretty much this year.
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It's kind of crazy to see how much leverage young players with one good season and no arbitration rights can have in the NHL.
I don't think it's leverage. I think it's GMs who fail to understand their bargaining position. Would another team give up four first-round picks to make this signing? If not, then the Oilers overpaid.
