Ongoing - Elliott Friedman's 30 Thoughts (Wednesdays)

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Surprised we haven't heard more/bigger rumours coming out of Edmonton. With low cap hits on Drasaitle and McDavid, a hot goaltender and a relatively good team this year they should be going for it IMO. Do they really care about or need a 1st round pick, this season or next? I know they're big on Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones but they're both 19 and could help them win now through trades.

Teams can still win when their stars have massive contracts but little surprised we haven't heard that they're all in as buyers.

I agree they should be all in, the problem is they don't have any assets worth anything that aren't already in the roster, and those roster pieces have trade inhibiting cap hits.

They just don't have anything to get a deal done. Hall for Larsen gives you an idea of what is out there for them.

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I agree they should be all in, the problem is they don't have any assets worth anything that aren't already in the roster, and those roster pieces have trade inhibiting cap hits.

They just don't have anything to get a deal done. Hall for Larsen gives you an idea of what is out there for them.

They have the #4 pick from last year and their 1st for the upcoming draft.

[Flash Walken]

Two things working against the oilers in signing mcdavid:

1) the nhlpa will be deeply invested in making sure mcdavid receives the absolute max number available. Like when Iginla was dominating the league and holding out, this contract impacts every player in the league and it is imperative for the PA that they don't appear to give the franchise any kind of discount or consideration on the deal.

2) there is no question on the ability or impact of mcdavid, so RFA year qualifications and bridge deals need not apply. He will ask for and get the max because if the oilers don't give it to him, another team will happily pay him to be the second best player in the NHL.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I don't get why the PA would be involved or care much about McDavid's contract - not with the salary cap and HRR. Sure, if they are intending on removing the cap (good luck) from the next CBA, then there might be some pressure on McDavid's camp.

I must be missing something. I understand perfectly well how the PA would have stood by Iginla and had their best interests in making sure he signed for the most possible, but there is no point now with linkage.

[Buff]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I don't get why the PA would be involved or care much about McDavid's contract - not with the salary cap and HRR. Sure, if they are intending on removing the cap (good luck) from the next CBA, then there might be some pressure on McDavid's camp.

I must be missing something. I understand perfectly well how the PA would have stood by Iginla and had their best interests in making sure he signed for the most possible, but there is no point now with linkage.

They still want to pressure players to get as much as they can, without taking a discount that could affect the max that other players make.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I don't get why the PA would be involved or care much about McDavid's contract - not with the salary cap and HRR. Sure, if they are intending on removing the cap (good luck) from the next CBA, then there might be some pressure on McDavid's camp.

I must be missing something. I understand perfectly well how the PA would have stood by Iginla and had their best interests in making sure he signed for the most possible, but there is no point now with linkage.

Maybe it'd be the elite players pressuring him, and not the PA as a whole. If McDavid were to sign at an AAV of $9M, one would have to think that that would cap what the next crop of elite RFAs (Matthews, Eichel, Laine, Marner) could ask for.

If McDavid signs for $12M, then Matthews has grounds to hold out for $10M, and will most likely get it. If McDavid signs for $9M though... Matthews stands to lose $10-$20M on his next contract (signs for $8M AAV instead of $10M AAV, over 8 years).

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

Maybe it'd be the elite players pressuring him, and not the PA as a whole. If McDavid were to sign at an AAV of $9M, one would have to think that that would cap what the next crop of elite RFAs (Matthews, Eichel, Laine, Marner) could ask for.

If McDavid signs for $12M, then Matthews has grounds to hold out for $10M, and will most likely get it. If McDavid signs for $9M though... Matthews stands to lose $10-$20M on his next contract (signs for $8M AAV instead of $10M AAV, over 8 years).

If we're generous elite players account for 25 of the 700 plus NHLPA members. I see a lot more pressure from the rank and file who may hold the view of....well Connor will get lot's of opportunity to make money outside of the game. I have a three to 4 year window, and the difference between a 950k salary and a 1.25 makes a huge difference.

With the cap and link to HRR...every time Peter gets a dollar, that's one dollar that Paul can't have.

The only pressure will be from the Agencies that represent the players. Agencies, who represent these elite players may decide to collectively get the price point of their clients up so as to increase their share, and take from their competitors.

[Jay Random]

Again, the NHLPA is pushing to eliminate escrow in the next CBA. I doubt they'll succeed. But if they did, that would mean that a bigger contract for McHallelujahBetterThanGretzkyEven does not come out of everybody else's share of the pie.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

If we're generous elite players account for 25 of the 700 plus NHLPA members. I see a lot more pressure from the rank and file who may hold the view of....well Connor will get lot's of opportunity to make money outside of the game. I have a three to 4 year window, and the difference between a 950k salary and a 1.25 makes a huge difference.

With the cap and link to HRR...every time Peter gets a dollar, that's one dollar that Paul can't have.

The only pressure will be from the Agencies that represent the players. Agencies, who represent these elite players may decide to collectively get the price point of their clients up so as to increase their share, and take from their competitors.

The "filler" players are irrelevant - only the elite players matter. The goal of the agents and the NHLPA is to cater to the top players; there will always be a supply of "filler" players, regardless of how much or how little of the pie is left over...

[manwiches]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/3...open-business/

A day late, sorry. Stuck in meetings all day yesterday.

A couple Flames notes, but there appear to be threads already dedicated to them, as Friedman already mentioned them on TV the other night.

I linked them after each quote appropriately, so discussion can continue there on those topics.

2. We get phone calls, Part I: Last week, Doug was talking about a penalty Calgary took in its win over Philadelphia and I joked about the “Wideman Conspiracy.” One referee did not find that funny. The next day, he phoned to complain and dropped a bit of a bombshell: The NHL and the Flames met to discuss the way Calgary games are officiated. They went through a ton of video, and even talked about calls not made — including some specifically against Wideman.

From what I was told, it was very tense at times. The Flames lead the league in penalties taken and penalty minutes per game. Last year, they were 26th and 19th, respectively, in those categories.

Pretty insightful.

Link to thread: http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=160248

10. I think Pittsburgh was in on Michael Stone, but may have needed time for cap reasons. You know who makes a ton of sense for them? Ron Hainsey. Jim Rutherford knows him well. Moving Stone was a signal Coyotes GM John Chayka is ready to go after collecting intel.

Not surprising, as it sounded like there were a handful of teams tire kicking at him. Glad we made the pickup. I remember him when he played for the Hitmen and always liked his game.

11. I would be very surprised if Stone was Brad Treliving’s only move. He’s looking at wingers, preferably someone with a bit of edge. And, even though he won’t discuss it, it’s hard to believe he’s not looking for a goalie.

He has his detractors, but i love Treliving's deals. He's always looking to improve, and on paper, they're always with the right intent, even if all of them haven't panned out.

Link to thread: http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=160251


League Notes:

26. As much as the Calder race is going to be insane, so is the Hart. Connor McDavid and Brent Burns are one-two entering Wednesday’s games in percentage of a team’s goals one player is involved in. McDavid is at 39.9 per cent, Burns an even 39. The Sharks’ wildman has been on the ice for 56.7 per cent of San Jose’s scores, the highest number in the NHL. McDavid is the only forward in the top five, at 51.8. Rasmus Ristolainen, John Klingberg and Erik Karlsson separate them. And we haven’t even mentioned Sidney Crosby.

Insane. I love Brent Burns, and I would love to see him win the Hart

[CaptainCrunch]

The runway is clear for McDavid to win the hart trophy. I mean you look at the Oilers and when he's on the ice, they're good, when he's not they're non existent.

If he wins it, it probably adds a million to his annual salary.

12 to 13 is not out of the question,

[manwiches]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The runway is clear for McDavid to win the hart trophy. I mean you look at the Oilers and when he's on the ice, they're good, when he's not they're non existent.

If he wins it, it probably adds a million to his annual salary.

12 to 13 is not out of the question,

I'd be okay with this, as it'll hopefully put the Oilers in cap hell for the 15 year contract he'll sign (I am purposely exaggerating on term)

[FanIn80]

Burnsie for MVP!

[CaptainCrunch]

Probably a pretty good chance of Burns winning it. But if McDavid winning it leads to Edmonton being in cap hell and trading assets for salary space I'm all for it.

[Samonadreau]

^ I agree. Let Mcdiver win it an get paid 14 per!

[delayedreflex]

My guess is McDavid gets some inspiration from Crosby and signs for $97 million over 8 years ($12.125 million AAV)

[Buff]

^^
I can actually see that happening. It's still a fairly cap hampering contract to boot.

[Parallex]

They went through a ton of video, and even talked about calls not made

I sure as hell hope that the 21 uncalled slashes to Gaudreau's hand the game his finger was broken and the curious case of "McDavid Get's a penalty shot & Gaudreau doesn't in the same game" was video A & B.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The runway is clear for McDavid to win the hart trophy. I mean you look at the Oilers and when he's on the ice, they're good, when he's not they're non existent.

If he wins it, it probably adds a million to his annual salary.

12 to 13 is not out of the question,

Well yeah but have they won a game that Talbot hasn't started? I find it difficult to give it to McDavid when there's another player on the team that is the deciding factor between wins and losses. If McDavid was the be all end all for the Oilers they should be able to win games with the backup goaltender between the pipes.

For a defenseman to be able to go toe to toe with him in scoring is petty amazing as Burns is doing this without being a train wreck defensively like Karlsson is at times. If Burns keeps it up I feel I would go with him because I feel Talbot is McDavid's equal when it comes to importance to his team.

[CaptainCrunch]

Well when you combine it with Draisatl probably getting about 7 to 7.5. from his 925k salary cap hit this year.

This year they're probably going to add 6.5 for Draisaitl, and they have a few incidental RFA's Kassian will get a pretty good raise, lets probably move him up by (1.2) Khari will probably get a small raise so add .5)

They're going to probably trade or not resign Russell (3.1) Gryba (1 mill) Hendricks at (1.8 million) and Ferrence will come off of the books (3.25) and Pitlick will probably be gone (.75) so they'll lose about 9.75 million, but they'll still need to replace 2 blueliners and a forward, so let say they do that with minimum wage prospects so add about what 3 million. So that's what 12.95 million

so I think the Oilers have right now about 4 million dollars in cap space and the cap is going to be flat, so they'll be down to close to a million in cap space the next year..

Then

McDavid is a .985 cap hit right now, lets say for arguments sake that he takes a home town discount to 11 million. so add $10 million. They'll need to sign Letestu and Caguillia (SP) so add lets say another 2 million. They have to either trade or resign Davidson and Benning. Lets be generous and add 2 million. Oh and do they resign Maroon who if he stays productive is going to go to 4 mill so add 2.5. So we're adding 16.5 We also need to resign Nurse, so lets say that he goes to 3 mill so now we're going to add 2.2 million. And whether they decide to resign LB as a backup or pursue something else we'll just ignore that hit for now. So they have 18.7 million to their payroll and it dosen't matter how much their cap goes up.

So you would literally have to trade RNH Eberle and Lucic for nothing and take back no salary to survive.