Federal Election Polling Thread

[N-E-B]

Was going to be voting Conservative, but honestly if they have no chance of winning, what's the point? I may be one of those "strategic voters" who goes Liberal in order to keep the NDP out.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by littlereddevil

Also worth noting. I don't believe the NDP have named a candidate for Signal Hill yet, and 308 projects 18% would support them. If those voters switch over to Liberals, the Liberals may just take the seat.

It's tough to say though. This is my riding and it's historically been a Conservative or nothing riding. After all, we kept voting Anders back in

That wouldn't surprise me. As we saw in the provincial election, there is a good swatch of the population that doesn't put any time in to researching candidates and will vote blindly on party lines. I'm amazed they haven't thrown up a bunch of Notley signs yet.

I think the Conservatives will be safe in a bunch of Calgary ridings (Heritage, Midnapore, etc.,) but if Signal Hill or Rocky Ridge start getting tighter it could be real trouble.



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[littlereddevil]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

That wouldn't surprise me. As we saw in the provincial election, there is a good swatch of the population that doesn't put any time in to researching candidates and will vote blindly on party lines. I'm amazed they haven't thrown up a bunch of Notley signs yet.

I think the Conservatives will be safe in a bunch of Calgary ridings (Heritage, Midnapore, etc.,) but if Signal Hill or Rocky Ridge start getting tighter it could be real trouble.



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Quite frankly I won't vote NDP because I feel insulted that they took a while to name a candidate. Clearly they don't care that much about Calgary Signal Hill voters.

Edit: they actually have nominated someone (Khalis Ahmed). Either way they still won't get my vote. Took them way too long.

[c.t.ner]

It's not a polling story, but there is an interesting tidbit towards the end.

http://m.huffpost.com/ca/entry/8112332

At the bottom there is a blurb about bad polling numbers in Edmonton, that is inline with 308's prediction of a bunch of seats going Orange in Edmonton.


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[Slava]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

Although it doesn't include updates from today 308 looks like it has 7 Alberta seats going to either the NDP/Liberals. Edmonton seems to be staying NDP orange after the provincial election, as well as Lethbridge. Edmonton Millwoods and Riverbend are also a toss-up. Calgary Centre and Skyview both appear to be going Liberal red. If the polls continue their direction, we may see Calgary Confederation and Calgary Forrest Lawn move towards the Liberals.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html

Lethbridge?! That's crazy. I know of a NDP candidate who ran there years ago who would have been an amazing, albeit young and idealistic firebrand. They had their chance!

[killer_carlson]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

It's not a polling story, but there is an interesting tidbit towards the end.

http://m.huffpost.com/ca/entry/8112332

At the bottom there is a blurb about bad polling numbers in Edmonton, that is inline with 308's prediction of a bunch of seats going Orange in Edmonton.


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for what it is worth, my assessment of talk on the street, I believe there are more Edmonton ridings in play for the NDP than 308 is projecting.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by littlereddevil

Quite frankly I won't vote NDP because I feel insulted that they took a while to name a candidate. Clearly they don't care that much about Calgary Signal Hill voters.

Edit: they actually have nominated someone (Khalis Ahmed). Either way they still won't get my vote. Took them way too long.

Why would this matter to you?

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

for what it is worth, my assessment of talk on the street, I believe there are more Edmonton ridings in play for the NDP than 308 is projecting.

I don't have any connections to Edmonton, but I think you're right. I wouldn't be shocked if a vast majority of Edmonton (and a couple surrounding areas) go NDP.

[Parallex]

Yeah, Definelty feel like there are more ridings in play in Alberta now then any election since I moved here. In past elections I've gone the whole campaign seeing barely any ads from anyone other then the Tories/RP/CA... they still command the majority of airtime but I'm seeing significantly more from the LPC and NDP this go around. They wouldn't be throwing money around if there wasn't something to win.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

That wouldn't surprise me. As we saw in the provincial election, there is a good swatch of the population that doesn't put any time in to researching candidates and will vote blindly on party lines. I'm amazed they haven't thrown up a bunch of Notley signs yet.

The NDP signs in my riding say Tom Mulcair.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by littlereddevil

Quite frankly I won't vote NDP because I feel insulted that they took a while to name a candidate. Clearly they don't care that much about Calgary Signal Hill voters.

Edit: they actually have nominated someone (Khalis Ahmed). Either way they still won't get my vote. Took them way too long.

Remember, many complained how the NDP failed to properly screen candidates in the provincial election. Do you want them to rush into naming a candidate, or select quality candidates? Which approach shows more care for the riding?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Jacks

The NDP signs in my riding say Tom Mulcair.

I find the NDP are the worst for trying to make a cult of personality around their leader. A lot of the signs I see in Ontario have "Mulcair" as the center point of the sign with the actual candidate's name being in small print.

It's almost like they are trying to pass the notion that their candidate doesn't matter because they will all have to answer to Mulcair. It rubs me the wrong way because no matter who the leader is, they are supposed to represent their constituents to the government, not the other way around.

All parties do it to a point though, but I find the NDP and the Greens to be the worst for it.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I find the NDP are the worst for trying to make a cult of personality around their leader. A lot of the signs I see in Ontario have "Mulcair" as the center point of the sign with the actual candidate's name being in small print.

It's almost like they are trying to pass the notion that their candidate doesn't matter because they will all have to answer to Mulcair. It rubs me the wrong way because no matter who the leader is, they are supposed to represent their constituents to the government, not the other way around.

All parties do it to a point though, but I find the NDP and the Greens to be the worst for it.

I think its more common in spots where they haven't won seats before or have unknown running (and you have a relatively popular leader). People know Mulclair, they have no idea who Joe Schmo running in their riding is.

I'm in a riding with a current NDP MP and I don't think any of the signs say anything about Mulclair and the bigger ones have pictures of the candidate. The Liberal signs have a small blurb about Justin's team and the Conservative signs don't mention Harper at all.

[littlereddevil]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Why would this matter to you?

Not sure if you read what I posted earlier, but I live in the Signal Hill riding.

To me, it just screams a lack of preparation. If the NDP really cared about all Canadian voters (or at least just Signal Hill voters) they would have been more prompt with naming a candidate.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Nanos has a three-way tie, and a significant movement to the Tories in their last three day sample. Forum still the odd ones out with the NDP in front outside their MOE.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Nanos has a three-way tie, and a significant movement to the Tories in their last three day sample. Forum still the odd ones out with the NDP in front outside their MOE.

So the guy peeing and other guy making prank phone calls gave them a bounce? How bizarre. Maybe like the stock market this is a dead cat bounce because there has been literally nothing of positive note for the CPC in the past week, unless I am forgetting something?

[Parallex]

New Polls...

Nanos: http://www.nanosresearch.com/library...0TrackingE.pdf

Forum: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1...ives-in-second

Ekos will be out later today (based on Frank Graves comments I expect a similer trendline).

The skinny: Forum continues to show the NDP with a fairly sizable lead with the Tories and Grits effectively tied for 2nd (LPC with a 1 point lead), Nanos has the Liberals ahead by literally the slimmest of margins (they're pretty much tied) with the Tories with the NDP in third by a slim margin (1 point). This is a pretty significant recovery for the Tories from the nadir of the polls last week.

I trust Nanos more then Forum TBQH, with respect to the topline numbers, I think Forum is just like everyone else with respect to the trendline. The Nanos Regionals have the Tory spike occuring in BC & the Prairies.

[PeteMoss]

Looks the Nanos poll movement is all within the margin of error. The Forum poll is actually a better indicator for the Conservatives as their gain there was outside of the MOE so more likely 'real'.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by littlereddevil

Not sure if you read what I posted earlier, but I live in the Signal Hill riding.

To me, it just screams a lack of preparation. If the NDP really cared about all Canadian voters (or at least just Signal Hill voters) they would have been more prompt with naming a candidate.

Ah... I suppose. I'd rather they worry about getting a decent candidate then worry about one being named early. The election is still a month away.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Parallex

New Polls...

Nanos: http://www.nanosresearch.com/library...0TrackingE.pdf

Forum: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1...ives-in-second

Ekos will be out later today (based on Frank Graves comments I expect a similer trendline).

The skinny: Forum continues to show the NDP with a fairly sizable lead with the Tories and Grits effectively tied for 2nd (LPC with a 1 point lead), Nanos has the Liberals ahead by literally the slimmest of margins (they're pretty much tied) with the Tories with the NDP in third by a slim margin (1 point). This is a pretty significant recovery for the Tories from the nadir of the polls last week.

I trust Nanos more then Forum TBQH, with respect to the topline numbers, I think Forum is just like everyone else with respect to the trendline. The Nanos Regionals have the Tory spike occuring in BC & the Prairies.

And EKOS has the CPC ahead. So three polls.. three different parties in front.