NHL Free Agent Frenzy July 1st.

[Enoch Root]

I would like to preface this post by saying that I really like Schlemko, I think Treliving did a great job grabbing him off waivers, and I hope he is re-signed...

Originally Posted by Cheerio

Look at his advanced numbers. He drives possession better than almost anyone on the Flames, he was a positive possession player this year (according to stats.hockeyanalysis) playing for Arizona Dallas and Calgary this year, with most of his time being spent on a poor possession team. With the growing trend of possession numbers and analytics in NHL front offices, a guy that outperforms his team is going to get paid.

This post exemplifies everything that is wrong with advanced stats, and in particular, possession numbers.

Is there a single person on the planet (Schlemko's mom excluded) who - while actually WATCHING the games - thought: hey, that Schlemko is totally driving the play!?

He did a great job filling in as the #6. I really liked him.

But if your stats are telling you that he drove possession better than almost anyone else on the team well...

When an individual stat is that incongruous with reality, one has two choices: re-evaluate the stat, or re-evaluate reality.

Which one seems the more prudent?

And what drives so many of us crazy is that, when it comes to 'advanced' hockey stats, so many disciples seem to choose the latter.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Is there a single person on the planet (Schlemko's mom excluded) who - while actually WATCHING the games - thought: hey, that Schlemko is totally driving the play!?

Actually, yes. There were multiple instances where he made strong plays to either

A) Get the puck in the defensive zone with good play along the walls, and then use his great stickhandling to get the puck up the ice.

B) Keep the puck in the offensive zone at the blueline and sustain possession simply by having some mobility and good instinct.

What was also clear from watching Schlemko is that he can't shoot the puck well enough to be a legitimate top 4 offensive Dman, but as a defensive Dman he's exactly what you want.

Schlemko's possession was inflated by

1) Easy zone starts for the Schlemko/Diaz pairing
2) TJ Brodie being God-tier.

But considering certain other players got similar deployment and came out of it not-so-hot, calling Schlemko a possession driver is very accurate. Our own GM also said multiple times he thinks Schlemko can be a middle pairing Dman, which lends credence to that he's a lot more than a "decent #6". Pretty much every time Engelland was taken off of Brodie's pairing and replaced with Schlemko, the pairing went from being a possession anchor to a possession monster regardless of where they were starting out.

But if your stats are telling you that he drove possession better than almost anyone else on the team well...

I can't imagine anyone's one's saying he drove play better than Giordano or Brodie among Dmen, those two are on a completely different level and for the most part the advanced stats support that.

But it's absolutely safe to say that Schlemko drove play positively VS Wideman, Russell, and Engelland. The eye test confirms that.

There's a reason Schlemko's arrival co-incided with an improvement in the performance of our 4th line with guys like Ferland, Stajan, Bollig, finishing the season possessing the puck whereas most of the season they would just be satisfied with just finishing a shift without giving up a goal.

Which one seems the more prudent?

That maybe your perception of reality is biased due to the fact that we got Schlemko off waivers rather than getting Schlemko off a 3x3 offseason contract. The idea of a waiver wire pickup possibly being much better at his position than a big offseason signing just can't possibly be true, even when every metric says it is.

That's not to take away from what Wideman and Russell do. They might struggle with possession but they're good at making plays that ignore 5vs5possession (scoring on the rush, blocking shots, passing on the rush, scoring on the power play), thinks that Schlemko can't do as well. But when Schlemko's on the ice good things happen almost every shift. He's physical in the Dzone, he gets the puck through the neutral zone, and he keeps the puck in the offensive zone even if he doesn't do a whole lot with it there other than aim for goalies' chestpads.

[Enoch Root]

No, my perception of reality is NOT biased, due to the fact that we got Schlemko off waivers. I don't care where he came from. Giordano wasn't drafted.

I simply watch, and assess what I see.

Schlemko was a good addition. I liked what he brought to the team.

But suggesting that, based on possession numbers, he was bringing more to the table than Russell and Wideman, is flat out ridiculous.

Again, it is a case of analyzing based on a stat, instead of watching what is going on on the ice.

[Enoch Root]

Oh, and GranteedEV... you recently suggested that, based on possession numbers, Carolina would have been a dark horse for the cup if they had made the playoffs.

Based on that comment alone, I am not going to waste any more time debating this issue with you.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Oh, and GranteedEV... you recently suggested that, based on possession numbers, Carolina would have been a dark horse for the cup if they had made the playoffs.

If they had made the playoffs, if they had a goaltender who wasn't getting by on reputation from a Conn Smythe win 9 years ago, if they didn't trade away Sekera, and a whole bunch of other ifs (like Eric Staal, Jordan Staal, Alex Semin, Jeff Skinner not underachieving). But way to pull one offhand comment (in a post that opened with "the Hurricanes are a confusing team", about a team I actually DON'T watch) out of context to make your point about a player on a team I actually DO watch.

[Cheerio]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

If they had made the playoffs, if they had a goaltender who wasn't getting by on reputation from a Conn Smythe win 9 years ago, if they didn't trade away Sekera, and a whole bunch of other ifs (like Eric Staal, Jordan Staal, Alex Semin, Jeff Skinner not underachieving). But way to pull one offhand comment (in a post that opened with "the Hurricanes are a confusing team", about a team I actually DON'T watch) out of context to make your point about a player on a team I actually DO watch.

Also, weren't they one of the hottest teams down the stretch who put up surprisingly good possession numbers?

[Anduril]

Originally Posted by Cheerio

Also, weren't they one of the hottest teams down the stretch who put up surprisingly good possession numbers?

Possession numbers matter little if your top players are no where near their previous top form. The offense from the team sputtered and couldn't make it count even if they had the puck more than not.

[MissTeeks]

@TSNBobMcKenzie: Pending UFA Michael Frolik hasn't been able to reach an agreement with WPG so he's in FLA today to meet with other interested clubs.

[sureLoss]

Roger Millions @RogMillions
UFA interview period begins today wonder if #Flames give Justin Williams a listen??

Roger Millions @RogMillions
Also believe #Flames among those who will want to talk to Matt Beleskey . Why not?

[codynw]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Roger Millions @RogMillions
UFA interview period begins today wonder if #Flames give Justin Williams a listen??

Roger Millions @RogMillions
Also believe #Flames among those who will want to talk to Matt Beleskey . Why not?

No to both plz.

[Ozy_Flame]

Yeah please stay away from vets like those. Beleskey is trying to cash in big time, I don't want any part of that. Let Toronto make him their UFA golden boy and watch him crash and burn.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

I'd take Williams on a short term deal (2 years) for reasonable cash, but that won't happen. I think July 1st might be pretty quiet for the Flames, and that's ok.

[sureLoss]

Anyone who thought Soderberg was going to be a reasonable signing:

Chris Nichols @NicholsOnHockey
LeBrun: As many as 7-8 teams interested in Carl Soderberg. Word is his camp is looking for $5 million a year

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Might be a nice time for the Bruins to get a pick today for Soderberg's rights. I don't mind him at all, but 5 mil seems a tad high.

[Vinny01]

Give Williams 1 year $6M similar bonus structure to the deal the B's signed with Iggy meaning he only gets those $ if he hits certain milestones

[codynw]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Give Williams 1 year $6M similar bonus structure to the deal the B's signed with Iggy meaning he only gets those $ if he hits certain milestones

Why would he sign that? Someone else will give him term.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Give Williams 1 year $6M similar bonus structure to the deal the B's signed with Iggy meaning he only gets those $ if he hits certain milestones

Even if he wanted to, he's not eligible to sign that sort of deal.

[Erick Estrada]

Williams is clutch in the playoffs but he's not fleet of foot (part of the reason the Kings missed the playoffs) and doesn't really fit in with the style of game the Flames want to play.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Roger Millions @RogMillions
UFA interview period begins today wonder if #Flames give Justin Williams a listen??

Roger Millions @RogMillions
Also believe #Flames among those who will want to talk to Matt Beleskey . Why not?

I always wanted to see a guy who squawked at his current team's offer, go and play for less money elsewhere because he overvalued himself in the first place.

It would sure be a dandy if Beleskey couldn't find anything, then came crawling back to the ducks, and they offered him even less than before

[RockOnRoberts]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Anyone who thought Soderberg was going to be a reasonable signing:

Chris Nichols @NicholsOnHockey
LeBrun: As many as 7-8 teams interested in Carl Soderberg. Word is his camp is looking for $5 million a year

What in gods name has Soderberg done to deserve anywhere near 5 million? 2 seasons of around 15 goals and 30 assists sounds like a 3/3.5 mill prove it contract if anything.