Magic Numbers Thread - Page 9 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

PugnaciousIntern · 03-31-2015, 09:31 PM

With the Winnipeg loss today, our magic # against them is down to 5. That's 5 for Winnipeg, and 5.5 for LA. We will hold the tie breaker with Winnipeg, and most likely against LA as well. This means that we now control destiny against BOTH teams! That's a huge position to be in.

That being said, given that our teams' maximum potential points are only 1 off of each other, and we play both teams again before the season is over, they technically still control their own destiny if they are able to win in regulation against us in both games. Chances are both games at the end of the season won't come down to this, but there's certainly a possibility.

dying4acup · 03-31-2015, 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PugnaciousIntern

With the Winnipeg loss today, our magic # against them is down to 5. That's 5 for Winnipeg, and 5.5 for LA. We will hold the tie breaker with Winnipeg, and most likely against LA as well. This means that we now control destiny against BOTH teams! That's a huge position to be in.

That being said, given that our teams' maximum potential points are only 1 off of each other, and we play both teams again before the season is over, they technically still control their own destiny if they are able to win in regulation against us in both games. Chances are both games at the end of the season won't come down to this, but there's certainly a possibility.

I have the magic number at 5 for for the Kings and 4.5 to the jets.

Both The Kings and the jets can get to exactly 100points if they win out. If the Flames win 5 games they would have 101.

Essentially if the finished 4-0-1 and the Kings and jets won out (not possible because the flames play both teams once) there would be a 3-way tie at 100points. Currently the jets have 32 ROW, and the Flames have 38, so a 3-way tie gets the flames in.

Caged Great · 03-31-2015, 10:38 PM

Caged Great · 03-31-2015, 10:40 PM

Calgary owns the tie breakers on both Winnipeg and Los Angeles.

Both teams can only get 100 points. That's a total of 9 points, or 4.5 wins and that's our magic #.

PugnaciousIntern · 03-31-2015, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Caged Great

As evidenced above, I probably don't understand magic numbers as well as I'd like to think, but shouldn't Cgy and Win now flip positions?

Caged Great · 03-31-2015, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PugnaciousIntern

As evidenced above, I probably don't understand magic numbers as well as I'd like to think, but shouldn't Cgy and Win now flip positions?

Yes. Was in a hurry to get it posted and forgot to do it.

PS, don't sell yourself short you were right.

Caged Great · 03-31-2015, 10:47 PM

Fixed

dying4acup · 03-31-2015, 10:49 PM

I believe this is the first time in 5yrs the Flames magic number has been less than their games remaining.

You Need a Thneed · 03-31-2015, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Calgary owns the tie breakers on both Winnipeg and Los Angeles.

Both teams can only get 100 points. That's a total of 9 points, or 4.5 wins and that's our magic #.

The tiebreaker is not guaranteed over LA, so the magic number to beat LA still is 5.

csnarpy · 03-31-2015, 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

The tiebreaker is not guaranteed over LA, so the magic number to beat LA still is 5.

Isn't the first tiebreaker games won? I don't believe there is any real scenario that LA can catch us in wins and be tied at the end...

dying4acup · 03-31-2015, 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

The tiebreaker is not guaranteed over LA, so the magic number to beat LA still is 5.

This is true, but i if LA is going to have 4 more ROW than the Flames (because a tie goes to the Flames due to season series), then The Kings are going to be well past the flames in points, and tiebreakers won't even be part of the equation.

Caged Great · 03-31-2015, 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

The tiebreaker is not guaranteed over LA, so the magic number to beat LA still is 5.

Strictly, you're right, but there is almost no way that they can beat us in ROW without finishing ahead of us. It would basically require us to lose every game in OT, and them win 4 games in regulation. That's the only scenario where that could come into effect.

midniteowl · 03-31-2015, 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dying4acup

This is true, but i if LA is going to have 4 more ROW than the Flames (because a tie goes to the Flames due to season series), then The Kings are going to be well past the flames in points, and tiebreakers won't even be part of the equation.

Could the bold part even possible though....LA is trailing Calgary in ROW by 3, to be 4 more than the Flames, they need to win 7 games, but they only have six left? Am I missing something? Or am I totally out to lunch?

You Need a Thneed · 03-31-2015, 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dying4acup

This is true, but i if LA is going to have 4 more ROW than the Flames (because a tie goes to the Flames due to season series), then The Kings are going to be well past the flames in points, and tiebreakers won't even be part of the equation.

For example, LA goes 4-2, all regulation wins, to end up with 96 points - and Calgary goes 2-2-1, both wins in the shootout - finishing with 96 points. LA wins the tiebreaker.

Caged Great · 03-31-2015, 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by midniteowl

Could the bold part even possible though....LA is trailing Calgary in ROW by 3, to be 4 more than the Flames, they need to win 7 games, but they only have six left? Am I missing something? Or am I totally out to lunch?

If the Kings win 4 of their 6 games in regulation and Calgary drops them all in overtime, we will both finish tied at 96 points with LA having more ROW.

It's so unlikely that it's almost impossible.

midniteowl · 03-31-2015, 11:23 PM

Oh...I see, thanks

PugnaciousIntern · 03-31-2015, 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

The tiebreaker is not guaranteed over LA, so the magic number to beat LA still is 5.

Right, but a very, very good chance.

Points: Flames=91 Kings=88
Games Remaining: Flames=5 Kings=6
ROW: Flames=38 Kings=35

Because the Flames have 3 more ROW, and 3 more points, the possibilities to end the season with tied points and ROW are limited. Scenarios in which Flames end up with tied points but less ROW are even more limited: the Kings would need 4 or more regulation or overtime wins in their last 6 games (certainly doable). HOWEVER, the Flames would then need to match with at least 5 non-ROW points (eg. two shootout wins and an OT/SO loss). If the Kings got 5 ROWs, that means the Flames would still need 5 non-ROW points in addition to 2 ROW points (eg. one regulation/OT win, two shootout wins and an OT/SO loss). These possible scenarios in which the Kings flat-out beat the Flames in ROW column yet are still tied for points are exceptionally improbable, however it's too late to calculate the number right now. I can guarantee it's less than the 1-to-19 odds threshold (5%).

If points are tied and ROW are tied, we go to points earned in games between the two clubs. Currently, points in games between the two clubs are 6-4 Flames. The Flames will win the next tie-breaker UNLESS one of the relatively unlikely scenarios where both points, and ROW are tied, plays out, INCLUDING a Kings regulation win in the game against Calgary. Then "points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included". That game would be the famous Dec 22 slump-busting OT win in LA, meaning that tie-break goes to LA.

Wow, certainly a lot to wrap my mind around. I won't think about this again until after the next Kings game, which exponentially decreases the possible outcomes.

Edit: Also, don't forget that SO wins give 2 points but don't count towards ROW, which unfortunately makes the chances of the Kings winning the tie-breaker better because of more options, but from really negligible to pretty-well negligible.

Caged Great · 03-31-2015, 11:25 PM

We could also win games in the shootout to muddy the waters even more. There are just so many things that would have to go in a precise way that the odds of it happening are probably in the hundreds or thousandths of a percent.

dying4acup · 03-31-2015, 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Caged Great

We could also win games in the shootout to muddy the waters even more. There are just so many things that would have to go in a precise way that the odds of it happening are probably in the hundreds or thousandths of a percent.

So u say there's a chance....

Lol

PugnaciousIntern · 03-31-2015, 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by midniteowl

Could the bold part even possible though....LA is trailing Calgary in ROW by 3, to be 4 more than the Flames, they need to win 7 games, but they only have six left? Am I missing something? Or am I totally out to lunch?

Also, the first tiebreaker is in fact ROW (not points from games between the two teams).

When dying4acup says "4 more ROW wins than the Flames", that refers to over the course of the rest of the season (to beat the Flames current 3-ROW advantage). Not 4 more in total, because you are correct, that's now impossible.