Bitcoins

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Thor

You surprised the Washington post would say that?

The deflationary risk of the bitcoin will cause issues on the ability to be a real currency.

[Rathji]

Not sure what you mean, care to explain?

[QuadCityImages]

The money supply will be fixed once it's all released and even now it possible that out can't grow as fast as it needs to. So as more people find out about them demand and price rise, which cause people to hang on to them, lowering supply, causing more demand, more media attention, even more demand, etc. The more people want to start using btc, the less useful they get as a useful, stable, currency. Going from being able to buy a candy bar with a bitcoin one day to being able to buy a laptop with one a few months later is some pretty serious deflation.

At least, from my limited understanding, that's the theory of why btc can't work in the long term.

[Azure]

What does everyone think of the ASIC miners? Personally I think they are a load of crock and won't ever be released.

Think about it. if Butterfly Labs had indeed figured out a way to mine 60Ghash/s with very low power rates and the ability to pay off the machine in 2 months or something, why wouldn't they just create one, pay it off, create another one, and milk the system until the difficulty is so high nobody else is mining.

[Rathji]

I think that BFL has a product that they can't get to match the specs they initially promised, are having troubles with power consumption and hashrate. They have given up on getting those specs (hence the change in their product line and costs) and within a month or 2, they will start shipping these units in very small numbers. By Sept or Oct, they will likely have filled the majority of their orders and the GPU mining game will be over.

ASIC miners are real, don't kid yourself that they are not, just not as economically viable as BFL was hoping.

[Thor]

Only Avalons are really being shipped, BFL is stilll considered shady albeit it its assumed they are having design and technical issues, not trying to screw over people.

There is another small venture that has claimed a small USB bitminer, and I mean tiny that can do 300 GHz, so there is lots of claims and people making predictions that BFLs will be obsolete within the year, but I think that's all nonsense.

The problem is getting a miner, BFL good luck until maybe next year, Avalon the same, and about 3 new companies that are being considered scam until proven otherwise.

The game now is getting a ASIC miner, fast, and mining the crap out of it until they flood the market in 1-2 years.

[Azure]

But if you are lucky enough to develop a ASIC miner that can mine 60ghz, why would you sell it? Just use it and make a ton of money.

IMO it is a scam.

[Rathji]

Because selling hardware for a profit earns you real money. Developing, building and using that hardware costs you money before it earns you money. BFL didn't have money, so they crowd sourced it, so they could have that miner. If they didn't do that, they wouldn't have the miner to use.

So the options are
a) They stole everyone's money and are faking the tests and demonstrations of BFL Josh's unit through FGPA hardware which they already have previously developed.
b) They spent everyone's money on development, and they can't quite get the product as good as they expected nor have they produced it as fast as expected.
c) They took everyone's money, produced a few miners and are mining with them to earn bitcoins.

I am thinking b is a much more likely option, since this company has previously sold a bitcoin mining product and would like to continue to sell bitcoin mining equipment. Why would they intetionally do something to kill their businesS?

[Azure]

Because Bitcoin Mining is probably not a long-term sustainable business as is.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Azure

Because Bitcoin Mining is probably not a long-term sustainable business as is.

Exactly.

Relying on the hardware you built to make you money through mining isn't reliable, but selling it would be.

Add in the whole criminal charges that would be pending against people who are not exactly anonymous and the whole intentional scam theory that is floating around is a joke.

They might not be able to deliver on their claims, but that doesn't mean it is a scam. The technology exists, Avalon is making and selling units using it, but BFL were wrong about how much they could do with it.

[Azure]

I guess my point is with BTC prices hovering around $100, they could make a lot of money mining with their units if they actually exist.

[Rathji]

I have no doubt they exist, and they are using them. I don't think that it has anything to do with them shipping a product or not though.

http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstat...Rz7PCxpNWxbBgL

http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstat...R7Qc4XQzgJ5vz8

http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstat...5d2gcQyK3SHe1A

[Azure]

Here we go again. Up to $111 right now.

[Rathji]

Sold all mine at $115, will see how it plays out.

[Azure]

Just hit $117.

Yay!

[Thor]

If your patient $115 will have been very low, but then again can't blame you after the volatility of late.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Thor

If your patient $115 will have been very low, but then again can't blame you after the volatility of late.

Long term, you are right.

Short term, I think I am further ahead to put the money into hardware immediately.

[Azure]

Yep. That is what I'm doing. Mining while I still can.

Still holding onto quite a few I bought at a very low price though.

[Thor]

But the only worthwhile investment mining wise seems to be ASICs, which seems near possible to get for at least another year.

[Rathji]

Exactly, so until then either you get FPGAs or go with GPU.