N. Korea vows to end Korean War cease fire...

[T@T]

Originally Posted by sharkov

This is probaly an unpopular opinion of mine but in the near future, I envision a catastrophe of epic porportion occurring within the Korean Peninsula. When the two Koreas go to war in a few years, just imagine the human suffuring, misery, carnage and mass destruction which will be all be confined to that peninsula turning the two countries into living nightmares.

Doubt it would be a war per say but more of an epic attack from NK and then an unbelievable counter from the US/NATO, If it's true that NK is ramping up it's nuclear/missile program again I can see it happening soon.

[CaptainCrunch]

I doubt that there will ever be a conventional war between the Korea's. The old story that the North had a formidable military is pretty much dead

Some comparisons for you all

Military budget

North Korea 8 billion dollars a year
South Korea 30.2 billion per year

Now you look at the size comparisons

South Korea number of men in uniform 639,000
North Korea 1.1 million
Reserve forces South Korea 2.9 million
Reserve forces North Korea 8.2 million

South Korea tanks 2876 mixture of M1A1 and M48
North Korea approx 5500 mixture of T55, T62 with 500 considered to be home built fairly modern

APC

North Korea 1200 mostly BTR-60's
South Korea 2600 apc

Combat Helicopters
South Korea 600
North Korea < 100 functional mostly based on M-24 and MI-8
Combat aircraft 450 fighters functional unknown, only 35 being modern (mig 29)
Ground attack aircraft 194 with unknown numbers being serviceable the most advanced being the SU 25

south Korea approx 600 strike and fighter combinations containing the F15k and F16, 40 F35 being deployed

Artillary, North Korea has a large edge but most of it is fixed artillary aimed at Seoul.

Navy, no comparison

Remember as well, while North Korea has a vast edge in troops, they aren't being fed and South Korean troops have more advanced equipment and better training, and possibly higher moral.

Where North Korea has a big edge is in their special forces who are the lavishly treated specialized troops.

We won't see a conventional war, North Korea wouldn't need American help to roll up the North Korea military.

What you might see is one of two things.

1) North Korea infiltrates with their special operations groups and attack civilian and economic targets, and create a campaign of terror. They would also attack governmental targets in an attempt to decapitate the South Korean government. The South Korean response would be a invasion of the North combined with massive air strikes on North Korean political targets of opportunity.

2) North Korea destroys Seoul using artillary strikes to sew terror in the South followed by a land invasion of the South. South Korean response. Massive air and missile strikes on the North cities with heavy emphasis on the capital. The North Korean ground invasion would probably ground to a halt within days due to a lack of logistical support and South Korea's marked edge in war fighting equipment.

In both cases the North would lose and the biggest loser would be the North Korean government who would be targeted by the South.


There is a third option, the North unleashes a nuclear or chemical attack on the South. Under the terms of the mutual defense treaty between South Korea and the United States the United States would treat this as an attack with WOMD and retaliate with tactical nuclear strikes in the North. The South would take advantage of this to invade the North and topple the government.

I don't see how the North can win and Kim and his government know this.

[Smartcar]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

What you might see is one of two things.

1) North Korea infiltrates with their special operations groups and attack civilian and economic targets, and create a campaign of terror. They would also attack governmental targets in an attempt to decapitate the South Korean government.

That's not going to happen. North Korea would never send anyone to infiltrate, they'd likely defect before doing anything else and they know it.

[sharkov]

Despite having an obsolete military, North Korea will go to war with the South as all the hype given to their military over the years will go tho their heads. From my experience, Koreans have obnoxiously high opinions of themselves and an overinflated sense of entitlement leading them to believe their own BS and other BS that other people feed to them. This lead to fantasies about military conquests. I'm guessing the leaders of North Korea behave the same way.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Smartcar

That's not going to happen. North Korea would never send anyone to infiltrate, they'd likely defect before doing anything else and they know it.

Doubtful for the most part the members selected for their special forces units are selected for their excellent performances during their training and work in regular army units and their high level of political reliability.

Then when they get special forces training they are heavily indoctrinated politically.

Most special forces operators in any country are rarely going to defect.

If you look at the usual defectors from the North that come from the military most of them come from regular army units, the ones from special forces are fewer and far between.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by sharkov

Despite having an obsolete military, North Korea will go to war with the South as all the hype given to their military over the years will go tho their heads. From my experience, Koreans have obnoxiously high opinions of themselves and an overinflated sense of entitlement leading them to believe their own BS and other BS that other people feed to them. This lead to fantasies about military conquests. I'm guessing the leaders of North Korea behave the same way.

Most of the members of the general staff in North Korea are in a tough position, they have the latest intelligence on South Korean Military capabilities and TOE. Kim knows it as well, he knows that an open war is suicidal for him.

Why I said the senior members are in a tough spot is because of the brutal dicipline in the North Korean Peoples Army. They know that if they get an order that they're going to eventually lose, they understand the forces involved. They also know that if they refuse the order to go to war they they'll die. They also know if they start losing that they'll die and be replaced by someone more politically reliable.

But the guys at the top know that the day of reunification by force are over, its a war that they can't win, the mathmatics don't support it.

Kim will continue to follow his fathers and grandfathers playbook and bluster and threaten and occasional get the military to shoot something in order to wring concessions out of a West that believes that they are an irrational state.

The North Korean government in a lot of ways is more rational then its being credited for.

I think one reported described Kim Jong Il as crazy like a fox.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by sharkov

From my experience, Koreans have obnoxiously high opinions of themselves and an overinflated sense of entitlement leading them to believe their own BS and other BS that other people feed to them. This lead to fantasies about military conquests. I'm guessing the leaders of North Korea behave the same way.

Just curious how you have come to this conclusion? Do you mean all Koreans or North Koreans? What military conquests do you refer to?

I am really interested in you saying Koreans are self entitled and obnoxious. My encounters haven't been like that. Although I guess your generic stereotype could be said about Americans, Chinese, Russians, or just about any culture. Just really curious as the 12 years I have been dealing with the community I haven't found it, granted that is here in Canada and not back in Korea.

[sharkov]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

Just curious how you have come to this conclusion? Do you mean all Koreans or North Koreans? What military conquests do you refer to?

I am really interested in you saying Koreans are self entitled and obnoxious. My encounters haven't been like that. Although I guess your generic stereotype could be said about Americans, Chinese, Russians, or just about any culture. Just really curious as the 12 years I have been dealing with the community I haven't found it, granted that is here in Canada and not back in Korea.

Just from my experience from dealing with them my entire life. Every Korean I have met have a similar mentality as the North Korean leader, Kim Jong un and dream of military conquest of the old world as they think they are the next genghis khan or something. This general attitude is why their soccer team and fans are the most hated in the world.

[PIMking]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

Just curious how you have come to this conclusion? Do you mean all Koreans or North Koreans? What military conquests do you refer to?

I am really interested in you saying Koreans are self entitled and obnoxious. My encounters haven't been like that. Although I guess your generic stereotype could be said about Americans, Chinese, Russians, or just about any culture. Just really curious as the 12 years I have been dealing with the community I haven't found it, granted that is here in Canada and not back in Korea.

But 'merica won it's wars unless it was the conflict with Vietnam, and those pesky, thoughtful nice Canadians.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by sharkov

Just from my experience from dealing with them my entire life. Every Korean I have met have a similar mentality as the North Korean leader, Kim Jong un and dream of military conquest of the old world as they think they are the next genghis khan or something. This general attitude is why their soccer team and fans are the most hated in the world.

I beg to differ. I'm not even a soccer fan, and I know that the Italian and Portuagese teams and their in-your-face fans are the most hated in the world. No competition there.

[Teh_Bandwagoner]

Originally Posted by sharkov

Just from my experience from dealing with them my entire life. Every Starcraft I have met have a similar Starcraft as the North Korean Starcraft, Kim Jong un and dream of military conquest of the Starcraft as they think they are the next Starcraft or something. This general attitude is why their Starcraft and fans are the most hated in the Starcraft.

fyp

[Wormius]

I have to wonder what Kim Jong Un is thinking when he makes announcements. It's sad that everybody is so scared of him that nobody will tell him that he sounds like an utter #####tard whenever he talks regarding this latest news of his uncle's execution. Why hasn't somebody in that inner circle off'd that whole Kim family yet and discontinued that line of miscreants?

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Wormius

I have to wonder what Kim Jong Un is thinking when he makes announcements. It's sad that everybody is so scared of him that nobody will tell him that he sounds like an utter #####tard whenever he talks regarding this latest news of his uncle's execution. Why hasn't somebody in that inner circle off'd that whole Kim family yet and discontinued that line of miscreants?

Because the systems set up based on a massive internal conflict between the Military and Internal security both vying for favored position with the leader. He bribes them with massive funding (room 19 I think) and massive funding and power.

If he favors the Military the Security Service can't do anything because of the whole guns factor. Once in a while he'll allow internal security to purge the Military to keep them in line.

He see's and knows everything that's happening and he's been taught to ruthlessly stamp out dissent before its more then a whisper.

You are never going to get that family out of power as long as he has control over the two biggest groups in the country.

Then you rule the citizens through not only fear, but starvation keeps them from finding the energy to rise up.

[bluejays]

How doesn't anyone take him out though? Even during Hitler's time there were multiple attempts to take him out from his own side. All the people around him presumably carry arms, you'd think one person would take it upon themselves to rid the world of him?

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by fleury

How doesn't anyone take him out though? Even during Hitler's time there were multiple attempts to take him out from his own side. All the people around him presumably carry arms, you'd think one person would take it upon themselves to rid the world of him?

Well, maybe there have been attempts, but the propaganda machine doesn't let news of them escape. If Hitler survived, perhaps so have these rulers.

In fact, maybe that was part of the deal with the uncle? Heh.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Daradon

Well, maybe there have been attempts, but the propaganda machine doesn't let news of them escape. If Hitler survived, perhaps so have these rulers.

In fact, maybe that was part of the deal with the uncle? Heh.

Yeah, the difference I see is that the Germans had a far more open and sophisticated history. The North Koreans have been brain washed for generations, so the only dissent would come from political rivals such as his uncle. If the uncle succeeded in overthrowing Kim, he probably wouldn't be any better.

[Daradon]

Probably not, I'm sure your right about that.

All I'm saying (or thinking out loud) is that if we do learn of a lot of assassinations attempts on leaders after the fact, it's quite possible there have been attempts on this family somewhere along the line, and we just haven't heard of them. Because they are still in power.

Partly because in this situation the propaganda machine is so tight, and probably because that assassinations in general aren't heard about a lot, aren't talked about a lot, unless they do succeed.

[Julio]

This year's address to the nation by Kim:

http://www.nknews.org/kcna-watch/kcna-article/?0039509

[Coach]

That's ####ed up.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Daradon

Probably not, I'm sure your right about that.

All I'm saying (or thinking out loud) is that if we do learn of a lot of assassinations attempts on leaders after the fact, it's quite possible there have been attempts on this family somewhere along the line, and we just haven't heard of them. Because they are still in power.

Partly because in this situation the propaganda machine is so tight, and probably because that assassinations in general aren't heard about a lot, aren't talked about a lot, unless they do succeed.

From everything I've read and watched (and its lots, North Korea is pretty fascinating to me right now) There have been relatively few assasination attempts if any on any of the last three leaders of North Korea.

the system doesn't make it easy.

Let me put it this way.

You have the police (intelligence) and Military fighting for the favor of the Kims, both because of a special room in their ministry building that takes any hard currency earned by North Korea in trade and spends it on luxury items that Kim hands out as gifts. Those go along with luxury apartments for families of senior officials and the occasional friendly inquiry by Kim about how their families like their apartments.

At the same time the majority of North Korea's budget goes towards the military and the intelligence services, the senior members get the best food and clothing and control all of the industries in North Korea.

In order to maintain that favor the Intelligence and Military have a fierce rivalry, they heavily investigate and report on each other, also as part of maintaining the favor of the Kim they investigate and inform of senior government members and members of Kim's family members.

At the same time the Propaganda department which Kim Jung-Il and later his sons ran are feeding the people the believable story that yes they might be hungry, but beyond the borders of the People's republic it is far worse, imagine a post apocalyptic world of starvation and constant war.

On top of that the starvation level food levels is partially intentional as all of the food is distributed by the State with the upper classes getting most of the meat and most of the rices, vegetables and grains. This is intentional because the people spend most of their waking hours trying to get enough to eat either through growing crops, or by going into the forests and hunting rodents and tree barks that they can eat. They are tired, probably intellectually stunted and weak and have no time to think of a revolution, and besides why would you rebel against the great or dear leader, in fact its easier to turn someone in who is having rebellious thoughts because your reward is either currency or a luxury good that you can trade at the local black market for food.

The system is build around turning in your fellow citizens for reward.

There is no fire of rebellion burning in North Korea, the system is too perfect.

In fact, I am willing to bet that Kim's uncles only crime was trying to advise his young nephew and he was executed and publicly executed to encourage all others to fall in line. I can't see an Uncle who has probably grown incredibly wealthy and is well fed who's only fear is losing that wealth or power risking everything to rebel.



It was a symbolic execution.