The Blue Jays: 2009 Season Thread

[moon]

Originally Posted by Gozer

You're talking like its an NFL rookie salary structure, that's just not the way it is.

A prospect that would grade out as a mid 3rd rounder hires Boras as his agent and makes it clear that any team that signs him will have to pay him 1st round money. Therefore, his "actual" value is much lower than his "true" value and he doesn't get picked until the 5th round by a big market team that is willing to overpay for the talent.
The small market team that could have drafted the player in the 3rd round instead drafts 5th round talent because they can sign him for 5th round money.

Apply that to ten rounds of draft picks for ten years and this incremental over/under slotting has an appreciable effect.

Then why isn't it happening like that?

Who are all these great talents that the Yankees and Red Sox are getting that the other teams can't sign?

The one benefit big market teams have started to get over the small market teams is that they are now starting to spend a lot more money on scouting and developing players. That certainly is an area that they have an advantage, but to say they have a big advantage over the small market teams in the draft isn't supported by the evidence.

Through in the fact that the MLB draft is by far the biggest crap shoot of all the leagues and it isn't that big of an advantage if the big market teams were getting the highest touted guys anyways, since they rarely turn out better than 13th round picks.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by moon

They paid Wells and Rios big contracts and had no problem paying for Ryan and Burnett.

Ok, so when was the last one of those signed? Three years ago - at least. Hill got an extension recently too - but come on - you can see that they are refusing to bring in veterans that earn more than the minimum. Brevin Mencherson, David Delucci, Kevin Millar - there were better options out there if the Jays wanted to spend. Abreu comes to mind as an available guy that would have commanded a reasonable salary and would have been a great addition.

Originally Posted by moon

If they thought he warranted the money they would have kept him. In terms of ability they felt it was better to let him go and get him off the team because his play on the field wasn't worth it.

Its not like they wanted to keep him but had to let him go because they didn't have the cash to afford him. If they thought he was good enough he would still be on the team.

That is a baseball decision not a payroll decision.

We're just going to agree to disagree on Rios then.

If the Jays spend the money they saved in free agency then I will concede that I was wrong.

Originally Posted by moon

They overpaid him because they offered about 10 million more than any other team out there. It wasn't a deal which was in line with what other teams were offering and Burnett went to the Jays because he liked the team/city, he went there because the money was much better than anywhere else.

And if you could give me an example of the team investing in an improving* top shelf free agent since then I would concede the point. The Jays stopped shooting for the moon and started lobbing for the water tower.

I'm inclined to think that is payroll driven.

*not Eckstien or Thomas

Originally Posted by moon

How is it oversimplified and faulty logic?

By that logic, if the Pirates signed Sabbathia to the contract he got from the Yankees would that prove that their franchise is not ######ed by the league salary structure.

Originally Posted by moon

Other teams spending the same amount of money or less have been able to compete. They have done a better job of developing players and not handing out stupid contracts.

I would disagree about developing players, the Jays seem to do an excellent job at that. It's the swing-and-misses in free agency. I don't know if its the border or the taxes or the lack of baseball culture - but the Jays have to overspend to bring in free agents. Just not signing Burnett or Ryan is smart in hindsight - but the Jays wanted to compete and were forced by a number of factors to overspend to do so.

The Jay's pitching staff this season consists of Halladay and Ryan making big money, and handful of relievers making good money, and a stable of starters making peanuts. That sounds like pretty good asset management (read: excellent drafting/trading and development of pitching) and the only free agent they signed being an embarrassment.

To me, that suggests that the team does not have free agency as a viable option to improve their team and that is proof that between the league and Rogers this team is not competitive because of money.

Whew, have a good weekend all!

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by moon

Then why isn't it happening like that?

Who are all these great talents that the Yankees and Red Sox are getting that the other teams can't sign?

Usually they get traded back to the lousy teams for their top soon-to-be-free agents.

And I would disagree with the assertion on the whole - the BoSox have a fantastic farm system (for a number of reasons, including the inequality of the draft).

[moon]

Originally Posted by Gozer

Ok, so when was the last one of those signed? Three years ago - at least. Hill got an extension recently too - but come on - you can see that they are refusing to bring in veterans that earn more than the minimum. Brevin Mencherson, David Delucci, Kevin Millar - there were better options out there if the Jays wanted to spend. Abreu comes to mind as an available guy that would have commanded a reasonable salary and would have been a great addition.

They haven't spent a ton in FA because they already had a lot of their money tied up in their current players.

I am not saying they aren't behind the Yankees and Red Sox in terms of being able to spend, but when they have seen a need they have gone out and spent big money in the past. They are not the Twins who get rid of guys when need be.

I believe that JP didn't add a guy like Abreu because he thought the guys that he had were good enough, not because he wanted too much money (especially when you see the small contract he signed.)

Its also tough to sign FA's when JP has the reputation that he has around the league.

We're just going to agree to disagree on Rios then.

If the Jays spend the money they saved in free agency then I will concede that I was wrong.

You think that if he was hitting .300+ and had one or two hits with RISP that he would be gone?

He was let go because his play isn't good enough. To me that is player decision, not financial. The fact that they couldn't get anything for him from another team shows that people didn't think much of him as a player either.

And if you could give me an example of the team investing in an improving* top shelf free agent since then I would concede the point. The Jays stopped shooting for the moon and started lobbing for the water tower.

I'm inclined to think that is payroll driven.

*not Eckstien or Thomas

Again I think that it has a lot to do with arrogant Riccardi thinking his guys are good enough.

I would disagree about developing players, the Jays seem to do an excellent job at that.

Really?

They have done a decent job of getting mediocre pitchers that do well at times during the year but in terms of hitters they have been pretty terrible at developing them.

Hill looks good, not great and Lind is okay but they really have struggled in producing guys that can be difference makers and help take them to the next level. There isn't one batter on the team that another team would be concerned about facing, developed or not.

The terrible FA results just make the situation worse.

The Jay's pitching staff this season consists of Halladay and Ryan making big money, and handful of relievers making good money, and a stable of starters making peanuts. That sounds like pretty good asset management (read: excellent drafting/trading and development of pitching) and the only free agent they signed being an embarrassment.

The pitching staff also has put up good numbers at times and had some terrible performances at the worst possible time as well. After HallAday there is nothing on the pitching staff that is impressive at all.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by moon

The pitching staff also has put up good numbers at times and had some terrible performances at the worst possible time as well. After Halliday there is nothing on the pitching staff that is impressive at all.

I'd split hairs about Hill being better than good and you not giving our pitching prospects enough credit - but objectively looking back at our respective arguments compared to facts you seem to be a lot closer to having it figured out.

Not that I'm changing my mind.

[Machiavelli]

For some levity:

Wives and girlfriends of present (and recent former) Jays...
http://www.mopupduty.com/index.php/b...s-girlfriends/

[carom]

i really like aaron hill

[flambers]

Originally Posted by moon

Hill looks good, not great and Lind is okay but they really have struggled in producing guys that can be difference makers and help take them to the next level. There isn't one batter on the team that another team would be concerned about facing, developed or not.

The pitching staff also has put up good numbers at times and had some terrible performances at the worst possible time as well. After HallAday there is nothing on the pitching staff that is impressive at all.

Hill for only being "good" is tied for second in the AL with 31 HRs. Lind is 11th with 25. Lind is tied for 5th in the AL with Doubles... In my opinion Hill should get the gold glove at 2nd.

As for the comment "their isn't one batter on the team that another team would be concerned on" thats bogus anytime you have a guy on the team with 31 HRs the opposing pitcher is concerned.

Starting Pitching staff is almost all rookies (Cecil, Richmond, Romero and Rzepczynski)

Any time you start that many young pitchers their will be a learning curve.

To say their is nothing impressve about the starting pitching staff is to funny, Jays have Marcum returning next season, Litsch should be back, not to mention Romero, Cecil, Richmond and Rzepczynski .... they have tonnes of depth.

Pitching has not been the problem the Jays have lost a crap load of one run games....

The Jays lack depth with the Hitters, that is the area they need to find a solution to. However they have a gold glove 2nd Baseman... I would bet Lind will be groomed to play 1st.

[moon]

Originally Posted by flambers

Hill for only being "good" is tied for second in the AL with 31 HRs. Lind is 11th with 25. Lind is tied for 5th in the AL with Doubles... In my opinion Hill should get the gold glove at 2nd.

Should have said Hill was very good not great. The key part of the sentence was the fact that he is not a great hitter.

As for the comment "their isn't one batter on the team that another team would be concerned on" thats bogus anytime you have a guy on the team with 31 HRs the opposing pitcher is concerned.

There are plenty of guys in the majors that can hit HR's. Hill is still too easy to get out to be that concerned with him at the plate for any pitcher.

Starting Pitching staff is almost all rookies (Cecil, Richmond, Romero and Rzepczynski)

And they are doing a hell of a job getting the team wins. Just because young guys are forced to pitch in the majors doesn't mean that it is going to be a good thing going forward. It isn't like these guys are up here because of their stellar performances.

To say their is nothing impressve about the starting pitching staff is to funny, Jays have Marcum returning next season, Litsch should be back, not to mention Romero, Cecil, Richmond and Rzepczynski .... they have tonnes of depth.

Tons of depth of #4/5 pitchers is nice but not great. Romero looks like he could be better than that, Cecil perhaps in 2-3 years and Marcum if healthy can be a very good #3 guy, but the others are all back of the rotation/minor league guys, having them around is nice but isn't going concern anyone.

To me it sounds a lot like the comments for the past 3-4 years about the Blue Jays and yet we still see nothing from it. At some point all this pitching depth is going to have to do a lot more than look good.

[Flickered Flame]

Originally Posted by moon

Should have said Hill was very good not great. The key part of the sentence was the fact that he is not a great hitter. There are plenty of guys in the majors that can hit HR's. Hill is still too easy to get out to be that concerned with him at the plate for any pitcher.

I agree, Hill has had a very good year for the Jays but the fact is he can still be an easy out because he isn't patient enough. Just 29 walks on the year. If he would learn to take a bunch of pitches he would become an even better hitter.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Flickered Flame

I agree, Hill has had a very good year for the Jays but the fact is he can still be an easy out because he isn't patient enough. Just 29 walks on the year. If he would learn to take a bunch of pitches he would become an even better hitter.

Yeah, Hill isn't selective enough at the plate. Really he should be hitting further down in the lineup as he's like a 320 on base guy. He's got good power for a middle infielder, but I think his home run total this year will prove to be a bit of an abberation. In a normal year for him hitting .290 with 25 home runs and 45 doubles would seem the numbers he'd put up. So in order to be a bit more effective he needs to work on getting his on base percentage over 350.

I know Cito hates to change his lineup, but a guy like Bautista who's a 360 on base guy would probably be okay hitting 2nd, move Hill behind Lind to the clean up spot and than Overbay 5th and they might cash in a few more guys. It's not like they're asking Hill to lay down bunts or hit and run behind Scutaro this year.

[flamesaresmokin]

Originally Posted by Flickered Flame

I agree, Hill has had a very good year for the Jays but the fact is he can still be an easy out because he isn't patient enough. Just 29 walks on the year. If he would learn to take a bunch of pitches he would become an even better hitter.

Meh, his on base percentage went down partway through the year. Most likely due to the fact he is more confident in his ability to hit a homerun and go after pitches. I'll take his homeruns, hits or rbi on this team over the 3-2 count and a grounder to the third basemen 80% of the time that we see from just about everyone else.

[JohnnyFlame]

I think there should be a special reward for anyone who can watch more than one inning of the Blue Jays these days. I've been totally unable to for sometime now. Flick by it, tune in, watch them getting owned, and the remote goes into action. You would have to be a masochist of the first order to win this as yet unnamed prize.

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by JohnnyFlame

I think there should be a special reward for anyone who can watch more than one inning of the Blue Jays these days. I've been totally unable to for sometime now. Flick by it, tune in, watch them getting owned, and the remote goes into action. You would have to be a masochist of the first order to win this as yet unnamed prize.

...and they manage to make it unwatchable at every point in a game (starters, middle innings, closers) and in every aspect (pitching, hitting, etc...).

Shoot, even Halliday has been relatively unwatchable (compared to his normal self).

[Sylvanfan]

I'm thinking the Blue Jays will be lucky to win 70 games this year the way they're going right now. Halladay looks as bad as he's every looked his last three starts and behind him the only guy giving them adequate starting pitching right now is Rzecypcynski or how ever you spell that. When you consider the team was 27-14 at one point in time...to finish with less than 70 wins means you posted a record of 42-78 to close out the season. Thats god awful bad as it projects to a pace of 55-56 wins over a full season.

[nik-]

It sort of makes me sick how the Jays have been rolling over and taking it in the ass in divisional games pretty much all year.

God damn it. At least play for pride against these s :@

[Caged Great]

I'm actually hoping that they lose a vast majority of their games and finish with less than 70 wins.

The higher picks they can get, the better.

[Machiavelli]

Originally Posted by JohnnyFlame

I think there should be a special reward for anyone who can watch more than one inning of the Blue Jays these days. I've been totally unable to for sometime now. Flick by it, tune in, watch them getting owned, and the remote goes into action. You would have to be a masochist of the first order to win this as yet unnamed prize.

Haha, that's almost exactly what I do.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Yeah, Hill isn't selective enough at the plate. Really he should be hitting further down in the lineup as he's like a 320 on base guy. He's got good power for a middle infielder, but I think his home run total this year will prove to be a bit of an abberation. In a normal year for him hitting .290 with 25 home runs and 45 doubles would seem the numbers he'd put up. So in order to be a bit more effective he needs to work on getting his on base percentage over 350.

I know Cito hates to change his lineup, but a guy like Bautista who's a 360 on base guy would probably be okay hitting 2nd, move Hill behind Lind to the clean up spot and than Overbay 5th and they might cash in a few more guys. It's not like they're asking Hill to lay down bunts or hit and run behind Scutaro this year.

While I agree, Aaron Hill needs to be more selective in his at bats... but the guy's style is generally a first pitch type of a player..... I doubt that is going to change.

However Hill is a perfert type of a batter to hit second.

He has had "really good" stats this season,

TB - 1st in the AL
HRs - 2nd in the AL
Hits - 7th in the AL
RBIs - 10th in the AL

A guy like Bautista is a bench player, he only played every 3rd or 4th day there is no way he will bat in the first 4... at least that was the case until Rios was moved.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by flambers

While I agree, Aaron Hill needs to be more selective in his at bats... but the guy's style is generally a first pitch type of a player..... I doubt that is going to change.

However Hill is a perfert type of a batter to hit second.

He has had "really good" stats this season,

TB - 1st in the AL
HRs - 2nd in the AL
Hits - 7th in the AL
RBIs - 10th in the AL

A guy like Bautista is a bench player, he only played every 3rd or 4th day there is no way he will bat in the first 4... at least that was the case until Rios was moved.

Thats the problem right now the Jays don't have much choice but to play Bautista. The last god darned thing I'm trying to suggest is that Baustista is a long term solution for the Jays to hit at the top of the order. He is a bench player. But for the rest of this year, next to Overbay and Scutaro he is their best on base guy.

I think a below average on base guy like Hill who gets a lot of hits and has decent power should be down in the lineup hititng behind 2 or 3 guys who are good at getting on base. Right now Overbay, Bautista, Lind, and Scutaro are all a lot better on base guys than Hill is. Even a lineup like Scutaro, Overbay, Hill, Lind with Bautista hitting 9th would probably produce more runs.

Originally Posted by Caged Great

I'm actually hoping that they lose a vast majority of their games and finish with less than 70 wins.

The higher picks they can get, the better.

So long as they actually sign the player.