Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[Nelson]

And then the Flames can select a couple nice players who are projected to maybe be available in the late teens of early 20s: Ben Kindel, Cole Reschny, or Brady Martin.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I didn't buy into the notion of the difference between the Flames' pick vs Florida's pick. The value between the two is irrelevant - two separate assets. If they move Kadri, then that's when the value difference kicks-in for me between the value given to Montreal vs the value received back in exchange for Kadri. May never happen, so the cost of moving Monahan's salary will be what it will be, period. The value (or value difference, if there is a future trade) is still unknown, so no point in handwringing over it.



Either way, Flames will be selecting two players in the first round. That's two important building blocks. Maybe they don't pan out, but the more darts you are throwing, the better shot at hitting the bullseye and drafting a franchise player. Maybe they both bust. Maybe a bust and a replacement player. Maybe two decent players. Maybe two superstars. I will hope for the superstars, prepare myself for two busts, but just enjoy the draft and the excitement of following whichever two prospects are taken with these picks. Hopefully I won't torture myself with following who Montreal picked, or who else I wanted the Flames to pick that was available between Montreal's pick and the next pick. Hopefully I will just enjoy the day rather than focus on 'what could have been'.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Wolven

In our second road trip of the month, halfway through a Toronto to NY back-to-back, here is my update with 4/20 of the last games completed.

Section 1: Schedule update
Marching down the stretch: 16 games remaining

• Expected Wins: Kraken (H), Ducks (H), Sharks (A), Ducks (A), Sharks (H),
• Likely Wins: Islanders (A), UHC (A),
• Likely Losses: Rangers (A), Wild (H), Golden Knights (H), Kings (A),
• Expected Losses: Devils (A), Stars (H), Oilers (A), Avalanche (A), Golden Knights (H),

Results for the final 20 games of the season

• Confirmed Wins: Canadiens (H),
• Confirmed OTL: Canucks (H)*,
• Confirmed Losses: Avalanche (H), Maple Leafs (A),

*Defied expectation
…

Second road trip of the month is complete! 7/20 of the last games completed.

Section 1: Schedule update
Marching down the stretch: 13 games remaining

• Expected Wins: Kraken (H), Ducks (H), Sharks (A), Ducks (A), Sharks (H),
• Likely Wins: UHC (A),
• Likely Losses: Wild (H), Golden Knights (H), Kings (A),
• Expected Losses: Stars (H), Oilers (A), Avalanche (A), Golden Knights (H),

Results for the final 20 games of the season

• Confirmed Wins: Canadiens (H), Rangers (A)*, Devils (A)*, Islanders (A),
• Confirmed OTL: Canucks (H)*,
• Confirmed Losses: Avalanche (H), Maple Leafs (A),

*Defied expectation

Unexpected games going into the win column and an excellent 6/8 points earned on the road trip. (2 wins in a row for Vladar!!!!)

Section 2: Playoff standings update
The Blues are in WC2, sitting at 81 points and 72 games played.

• Flames are 4 points back (77 points) with 3 games in hand on the Blues (69 games played)
• Canucks are at 76 points and 70 games played
• UHC are at 75 points and 70 games played

Flames need to do more than just make up the 4 point lead that the Blues have right now. Based on wins, the Blues likely stay ahead with a tiebreaker.

Section 3: Tankathon update

• The Flames have the 18th hardest remaining schedule (L10 = 5-2-3)
• Canucks have the 9th hardest remaining schedule (L10 = 5-4-1)
• Blues are 14th hardest... big leap from 32nd. (L10 = 8-1-1)
• UHC are 20th hardest (L10 = 5-3-2)

The Blues are in WC2 with a buffer. Flames can make up the points to WC2 with their games in hand but the pressure is on. Canucks and UHC are technically still in the race but they are falling behind with less points and more games played than the Flames.

Section 4: "Top10 draft" update
Flames have climbed to 16th overall in the standings. It is not that big of a climb considering how the standing were a week ago, but the gap has widened considerably between the WC2 position and the top 10 draft pick and there is now a 7 point gap between the Flames and the top 10 of the draft. The pack of teams that were all within a few points of each other have really started to spread out.

Section 5: Other 1st round pick update
Devils are 14OA in the standings (1 spot drop) – 30th hardest schedule remaining
Panthers are 7OA in the standings (holding position) – 17th hardest schedule remaining

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Wolven

70 games played[/LIST]Flames need to do more than just make up the 4 point lead that the Blues have right now. Based on wins, the Blues likely stay ahead with a tiebreaker.

If the Flames won 2 of the 3 games they have in hand, they would have more wins and the tie breaker.

Realistically, the Flames cannot make up 4 points without winning more games than the Blues from here on in. They are currently only one win behind them.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

If the Flames won 2 of the 3 games they have in hand, they would have more wins and the tie breaker.

Realistically, the Flames cannot make up 4 points without winning more games than the Blues from here on in. They are currently only one win behind them.

Yes but it's important that those wins be in regulation. Otherwise they lose the tiebreak.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Second road trip of the month is complete! 7/20 of the last games completed.

Section 1: Schedule update
Marching down the stretch: 13 games remaining

• Expected Wins: Kraken (H), Ducks (H), Sharks (A), Ducks (A), Sharks (H),
• Likely Wins: UHC (A),
• Likely Losses: Wild (H), Golden Knights (H), Kings (A),
• Expected Losses: Stars (H), Oilers (A), Avalanche (A), Golden Knights (H),

Results for the final 20 games of the season

• Confirmed Wins: Canadiens (H), Rangers (A)*, Devils (A)*, Islanders (A),
• Confirmed OTL: Canucks (H)*,
• Confirmed Losses: Avalanche (H), Maple Leafs (A),

*Defied expectation
…

Starting the third road trip of the month! 9/20 of the final games completed.

Section 1: Schedule update
Marching down the stretch: 11 games remaining

• Expected Wins: Ducks (H), Sharks (A), Ducks (A), Sharks (H),
• Likely Wins: UHC (A),
• Likely Losses: Wild (H), Golden Knights (H), Kings (A),
• Expected Losses: Oilers (A), Avalanche (A), Golden Knights (H),

Updated results for the final 20 games of the season

• Confirmed Wins: Canadiens (H), Rangers (A)*, Devils (A)*, Islanders (A), Kraken (H),
• Confirmed OTL: Canucks (H)*,
• Confirmed Losses: Avalanche (H), Maple Leafs (A), Stars (H),

*Defied expectation

The home trip went as expected with the win against the Kraken and the … loss against the Stars & Refs. The Flames need to steal 3 wins out of the Losses lists while keeping all of the expected Wins.

Section 2: Playoff standings update
The Blues are in WC2, sitting at 85 points and 74 games played.

• Flames are 6 points back (79 points) with 3 games in hand on the Blues (71 games played)
• Canucks are at 80 points and 72 games played
• Wild are at 87 points and 73 games played

Flames need to win all 3 games in hand to catch the Blues. They would then be tied in points and tied in RW if all of the wins are in regulation but then we would lose the ROW tiebreaker.

Section 3: Tankathon update

• The Flames have the 20th hardest remaining schedule (L10 = 5-3-2)
• Canucks have the 4th hardest remaining schedule (L10 = 5-4-1)
• Blues are 10th hardest... last update showed the leap from 32nd to 14th. (L10 = 8-1-1)
• UHC are 18th hardest (L10 = 4-4-2)
• Wild are 24th hardest (L10 = 5-4-1)

FINALLY, the Flames have the second easiest schedule of the teams in the wild card race. This is assisted by the fact that the Flames also have the most games in hand. Like how the Blues took advantage of their easy schedule for the last ~10 games, the Flames now need to find wins while the Blues and Canucks walk into a harder part of their schedule.

Section 4: "Top10 draft" update
All of the teams between the Flames and a top 10 draft pick look to be losing games and dropping away at a faster and faster pace.

Section 5: Other 1st round pick update
Devils are 14OA in the standings (no change) – 21st hardest schedule remaining
Panthers are 9OA in the standings (2 spot drop) – 19th hardest schedule remaining

[Badgers Nose]

Sure math catches up to the Blues soon. This run is crazy! Stop it!

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

Sure math catches up to the Blues soon. This run is crazy! Stop it!

I think they are a lock for the playoffs unfortunately but every season we see a team catch fire before the playoffs and then fizzle out. I guess it's the Blues this year.

[Joborule]

Wolf has come down to earth a little. He's not stealing games night in, night out, and now the Flames are getting the results that they've should've been getting all year. It's kinda annoying that the year they were suppose to be bad enough to get a good early pick to draft a good Centre, their goalie is already at the level they were hoping he would be down the road. So great news in that regard, but yet another season with the Flames in perpetual mediocrity. And add that with the final gift from Treliving that they didn't even get to use their pick.

Such is the Days of the Flames.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Joborule

Wolf has come down to earth a little. He's not stealing games night in, night out, and now the Flames are getting the results that they've should've been getting all year. It's kinda annoying that the year they were suppose to be bad enough to get a good early pick to draft a good Centre, their goalie is already at the level they were hoping he would be down the road. So great news in that regard, but yet another season with the Flames in perpetual mediocrity. And add that with the final gift from Treliving that they didn't even get to use their pick.

Such is the Days of the Flames.

4-1-1 in their last 6

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Blues will march in.

Wild may stumble enough to be caught.

But it's hard to argue it would be by the Flames. Canucks look just as if not more likely to chase them down. And we're shaving points off our games in hand with these losses.

Now they have to pull out a herculean effort against the avs and steal a win. Tall task.

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by Joborule

Wolf has come down to earth a little. He's not stealing games night in, night out, and now the Flames are getting the results that they've should've been getting all year. It's kinda annoying that the year they were suppose to be bad enough to get a good early pick to draft a good Centre, their goalie is already at the level they were hoping he would be down the road. So great news in that regard, but yet another season with the Flames in perpetual mediocrity. And add that with the final gift from Treliving that they didn't even get to use their pick.

Such is the Days of the Flames.

Yes, this is just another year of being a Flames fan. No playoffs and no high draft pick.

Let's do it again next year, groundhog day every year!

[Joborule]

Originally Posted by dino7c

4-1-1 in their last 6

All of that, and they're still on the outside looking in. Blues are determined to be a dangerous team in the playoffs at this point, so they're a lock to make a spot. So it's up to Flames chasing the Wild, and staying ahead of Canucks (who they're behind at the moment).

Flames have the worst goal differential of all this teams in the Wild Card chase, which is a huge indicator in whether a team can make the playoffs of not. Their margin of making the playoffs is extremely slim now, and they're gonna have to rely on either the Blues finally collapsing, or the Wild to sputter for the rest of the season; while the Flames goaltenders continue to bail the team out by not giving up more than 2 goals in a game since the offense is too anemic to produce 3 goals a game.

It's not looking good, and it's that worst possible outcome for this season coming into fruition with the lost of their earliest draft pick. The only perk is that it's been great experience for Wolf and the rest of the young players that we hope to be here long term. But that fabeled #1C that can carry the franchise will continue to eluded us for yet another year. And this season is showing how desperately this team needs that asset. And the most realistic (and less costly) way to acquire one is by having a top 10 pick in the draft.

[Scroopy Noopers]

What an unbelievable run by the Blues here.

[DropIt]

We are closer to a bottom 10 picnic than we are a playoff spot is crazy considering the run

[Flamesfan05]

They are closer to not making the playoffs and not having a bottom 10 pick

Team did much better than expected. Wolf and Coronato look to have bright future. That’s the positive.

The pick was a wasted gamble by Treliving but we all knew that a long time ago

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

Sure math catches up to the Blues soon. This run is crazy! Stop it!

They’ve won all of the games I figured they would win. But now they are winning the games I figured they would lose.

I think minnesota cratering is the Flames only hope.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Starting the third road trip of the month! 9/20 of the final games completed.

Section 1: Schedule update
Marching down the stretch: 11 games remaining

• Expected Wins: Ducks (H), Sharks (A), Ducks (A), Sharks (H),
• Likely Wins: UHC (A),
• Likely Losses: Wild (H), Golden Knights (H), Kings (A),
• Expected Losses: Oilers (A), Avalanche (A), Golden Knights (H),

Updated results for the final 20 games of the season

• Confirmed Wins: Canadiens (H), Rangers (A)*, Devils (A)*, Islanders (A), Kraken (H),
• Confirmed OTL: Canucks (H)*,
• Confirmed Losses: Avalanche (H), Maple Leafs (A), Stars (H),

*Defied expectation
…

Murder’s Row March has ended! 11/20 of the final games completed.

Section 1: Schedule update
Marching down the stretch: 9 games remaining

• Expected Wins: Ducks (H), Sharks (A), Ducks (A), Sharks (H),
• Likely Wins: UHC (A),
• Likely Losses: Wild (H), Golden Knights (H2), Kings (A),
• Expected Losses: Golden Knights (H1),

Updated results for the final 20 games of the season

• Confirmed Wins: Canadiens (H), Rangers (A)*, Devils (A)*, Islanders (A), Kraken (H), Avalanche (A)*,
• Confirmed OTL: Canucks (H)*, Oilers (A)*,
• Confirmed Losses: Avalanche (H), Maple Leafs (A), Stars (H),

*Defied expectation

The last two games of March have gone better than expected and the team is 6-3-2 so far in the final 20 games. Walking away with 3 of 4 points against the Oilers and Avs when the expectation was 0 was necessary to stay in the playoff conversation. Now the team needs to wrap up the road trip with a win against UHC.

Section 2: Playoff standings update

• The Wild hold WC1, sitting at 88 points and 75 games played
• The Blues are in WC2, sitting at 87 points and 75 games played
  
• Flames are 5 points back (82 points) with 2 games in hand on the Blues and Wild (71 games played)
• Canucks are at 81 points and 74 games played
• UHC are at 78 points and 74 games played

Flames need help now to bring down the Blues or Wild. They need to get ahead of one of these teams as they do not have the tiebreaker right now in either RW or ROW.

Section 3: Tankathon update

• Wild have the 28th hardest remaining schedule (L10 = 4-4-2)
• Blues have the 16th hardest remaining schedule (L10 = 9-1-0)
• Flames have the 24th hardest remaining schedule (L10 = 5-3-2)
• Canucks have the 12th hardest remaining schedule (L10 = 5-3-2)
• UHC have the 18th hardest remaining schedule (L10 = 5-4-1)

Wild and Flames have easier remaining schedule but the Blues are on a 9 game win streak and are not interested in slowing down. Hopefully either the Red Wings and Penguins can put up a fight against the Blues while the NY teams can try to do the same against the Wild.

Section 4: "Top10 draft" update
Meh. 8 point gap.

Section 5: Other 1st round pick update
Devils are 14OA in the standings (no change) – 32nd hardest schedule remaining
Panthers are 10OA in the standings (1 spot drop) – 19th hardest schedule remaining

[McG]

I’m on team tank because I believe that teams have a better percentage chance of getting “that player” with more players on the board. I also wanted top 10 as a big FU to Treliving for that trade.

I have never cheered for losses though, despite acknowledging the sentence above.

It’s clear that the team will not allow top 10 draft pick to happen and I’m okay with that too.

I’m onboard for every single point that the flames can get, and obviously just as excited about the playoffs as everyone else.

The ultimate thing for me now is to finish ahead of New Jersey and make the playoffs. I may as well throw in a finish higher than the panthers, although that gets increasingly mathematically difficult with every game.

Let’s give Montreal the absolute worst pick we can, and improve our draft spot by finishing above the devils!

No matter what though, it’s been an entertaining season and maybe last season was our bottoming out?

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Murder’s Row March has ended! 11/20 of the final games completed.

Section 1: Schedule update
Marching down the stretch: 9 games remaining

• Expected Wins: Ducks (H), Sharks (A), Ducks (A), Sharks (H),
• Likely Wins: UHC (A),
• Likely Losses: Wild (H), Golden Knights (H2), Kings (A),
• Expected Losses: Golden Knights (H1),

Updated results for the final 20 games of the season

• Confirmed Wins: Canadiens (H), Rangers (A)*, Devils (A)*, Islanders (A), Kraken (H), Avalanche (A)*,
• Confirmed OTL: Canucks (H)*, Oilers (A)*,
• Confirmed Losses: Avalanche (H), Maple Leafs (A), Stars (H),

*Defied expectation

…

Quick update with 17/20 of the final games completed. It is interesting to see how the final 20 has progressed and figured it was worth sharing.

Section 1: Schedule update
Marching down the stretch: 3 games remaining

• Expected Wins: Sharks (H),
• Likely Wins:
• Likely Losses: Golden Knights (H2), Kings (A),
• Expected Losses:

Updated results for the final 20 games of the season

• Confirmed Wins: Canadiens (H), Rangers (A)*, Devils (A)*, Islanders (A), Kraken (H), Avalanche (A)*, Ducks (H), Sharks (A), Wild (H)*,
• Confirmed OTL: Canucks (H)*, Oilers (A)*, Ducks (A)*,
• Confirmed Losses: Avalanche (H), Maple Leafs (A), Stars (H), UHC (A)*, Golden Knights (H1),

*Defied expectation

The team is 9-5-3 so far in the completed 17 of the final 20 games. Doing way better than I had expected. Really hoping that the Knights and Kings will be resting their stars when we play them.

Section 2: Playoff standings update

• The Wild hold WC1, sitting at 93 points and 80 games played
• The Blues are in WC2, sitting at 93 points and 80 games played
• Flames are 3 points back (90 points) with 1 games in hand on the Blues and Wild (79 games played)

Flames need help now to bring down the Blues and/or Wild.

Section 3: Tankathon update

• Wild have the 25th hardest remaining schedule (VS: Ducks & Canucks)
• Blues have the 28th hardest remaining schedule (VS: Krakens & UHC)
• Flames have the 18th hardest remaining schedule (VS: Sharks, VGK, Kings)

Tough list of teams for the Flames while the other guys have pretty easy opposition.

Section 4: Other 1st round pick update
Devils are 16OA in the standings (2 spot drop) – 29th hardest schedule remaining
Panthers are 11OA in the standings (1 spot drop) – 19th hardest schedule remaining