Kamala flips the lead! Very shrewd to make this move and take all of the wind out of the sails of the GOP after the convention, VP pick, and failed assassination attempt. The Democrats couldn't have timed it better.
If she picks a strong VP candidate, that should give her another big boost as well.
Temper your expectations. Four months is an eternity especially in this political climate. Why only a week back it was a stone cold lock Trumps as winning remember? And now no one gives a toss that a conservative kid took a potshot at Trump and nicked his ear. The 24 hour news cycle is chewing up and spitting out what used to be career ending or career boosting events with shocking regularity. The only thing for sure is that it’s going to be a ride.
Oh sure, but if nothing else it's fun to see the GOP and the Cult go from coronation to quasi-meltdown within a week. That they seem so unprepared to run this election against not Biden is genuinely hilarious, plus Vance being Jeb-level has the potential for memes-o-plenty.
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For sure. As we speak the GOP is asking its members to stop attacking Kamala on her race. Sure we spent at least sixteen years making everything about race, especially recently escalating the rhetoric against (code word) DEI but guys you gotta stop that now. Please? We’re learning that apparently racism is bad? It polled well with our base though.
Trump can literally get caught paying to have sex with a porn actress while his wife is at home nursing his infant child, and his supporters are like, yeah, you go boss. A sex tape would never hurt him.
I recall back during the last election and women were coming out with allegations of harassment. When a reporter asked Trump if there might be more women with similar complaints, he shrugged and calmly said probably.
That's the thing about people who support authoritarian leaders. Acting above the law and social norms just makes them look stronger and more appealing. Even blatant and obvious lying helps their image as it promotes the notion that no one can tell them what to do or how to do it.
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I feel like a sex tape would definitely hurt him. Like not to his Cult, but all of us non-Cultists who'd be seeing memes and screencaps of it forever would likely want to gouge our eyes out.
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First, most people in this country typically choose the Democratic nominee for president over the Republican nominee time and time again. With the sole exception of 2004, in every presidential election since 1992, the Democratic nominee has won the popular vote
I've actually seen people post that here - that the Republicans were going to win the popular vote. Happened once in 30 years. I suppose that doesn't really matter though since the US votes in a electoral college system to keep slave states enabled...
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Since 2020, 16 million young people have become eligible to vote, and 12 million people, most of them older, have died. Biden beat Trump by 30 points among young people, according to the exit polls, and he lost among the oldest voters (52% for Trump, 47% for Biden). So the fundamental composition of our nation’s electorate is more progressive, more diverse and more favorable to Democrats right now than it was in 2020.
Nice of the author not to mention that Trump also killed a large number of his base by encouraging them not to mask or get vaccinated. Bravo!
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Second, although far too many in the media proceed from the premise that large swaths of the electorate are up for grabs each election cycle and susceptible to switching their political allegiances from one party to the other, the actual data starkly contradicts that belief.
The gold standard measure of voter behavior is the American National Election Studies (Anes), “a joint collaboration between the University of Michigan and Stanford University” that analyzes voter behavior over several decades. The Anes has found a clear and undeniable trend of swing voters virtually disappearing from the populace. In 2020, just 5.6% of voters fell into that category – down from 13% in 2008.
I always just sort of assume "undecided" voters are either totally uninformed, or are having a lark to try to get on TV. They just cannot really exist in the media climate Trump created.
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Lastly, a reality that historians will certainly puzzle over in future years when they try to understand why Biden was forced out less than three and a half months before election day is that the economy is actually going like gangbusters. Fifteen million jobs have been created under the Biden administration and the stock market is at an all-time high, swelling 401k retirement coffers by an average of $10,000 according to Fidelity investments.
Less confident on this one, as inflation has his lower income people harder. If you're unemployed and prices are increasing, you don't care about the stock market.
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An 18 July CBS poll showed Trump leading Biden by 51% to 47%. Breaking down the numbers reveals that Biden was backed by 42% of white voters – a higher percentage than he received in 2020 when he defeated Trump. The top line weakness came from the results for voters of color, which showed just 52% of Latinos and 73% percent of African Americans currently supporting the president (with drop-off primarily among men from these groups).
First of all, those figures are so historically aberrant that they call into question the polling methodology. Biden received 65% of the Latino vote in 2020, and 87% of the Black vote (no Democratic nominee has ever received less than 83% of the Black vote since the advent of race-specific exit polling in 1976). Either there has been a cataclysmic decline of support for Biden among voters of color, or the pollsters just aren’t that good at surveying people of color, or people of color are expressing their current lack of enthusiasm, which is a very different thing than how they will ultimately vote in November.
If, in fact, support for Democrats among people of color is the principal problem, then putting Harris at the top of the ticket is a master stroke. The enthusiasm for electing the first woman of color as president will likely be a thunderclap across the country that consolidates the support of voters of color, and, equally important, motivates them to turn out in large numbers at the polls, much as they did for Barack Obama in 2008.
Boom. Harris kills it.
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Between a failed assassination and the following absurdity of US politics, the Olympics (who doesn’t love watching men’s diving?), and following who the board’s biggest infant puts on ignore next, I have to say this summer is turning out just fine entertainment-wise.
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But I've been told christofacists don't exist, are not a thing to worry about, are fringe, only hand out candies...but ya they are here now and don't give a single #### about you. speaking of the f word, you need to replace it in the url since we have a swear filter for some reason.
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