Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Heavy Jack]

Mangiapane has an argument to push past 5, he has such great underlying numbers and is a play driver. It’s not a small feet to pot 30 in 60 some odd games and he finds himself in a favourable position going into contract negotiations. 6 x 4.85 is my guess but I actually think I’m low on that and he’ll get more.

[Icantwhisper]

Originally Posted by BigRed

Mangiapane is a better player. But he doesn’t have a better record thus far in his career.

His bargaining power is not that strong. He has one great year and only two middling years to back himself up

Will he have more individual success by the end of it? Probably. But Toffoli has been a reliable scorer for some years, including a 30 goal season — and he has won two Stanley cups. That matters.

If I’m Treliving, he’s my comparable — and I’m asking the Mangiapane camp why they think he should even make as much as TT.


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And if I'm eatbread I take that as an insult as last contract you told me to prove myself and now I've dropped a 30 goal (probably a 40 goal) season for the team and you want to hard ball me again.
I think fair is the 5.5 -6 for 4 years but he might want less term to get to FA, agent is pushing for short term so I guess we'll see. Find it very unlikely he signs for less than 5.
If JG walks I find it even more unlikely as you need Mangiapane's 30-40 goals even more now and that drives the price up.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by BigRed

Mangiapane is a better player. But he doesn’t have a better record thus far in his career.

His bargaining power is not that strong. He has one great year and only two middling years to back himself up

Will he have more individual success by the end of it? Probably. But Toffoli has been a reliable scorer for some years, including a 30 goal season — and he has won two Stanley cups. That matters.

If I’m Treliving, he’s my comparable — and I’m asking the Mangiapane camp why they think he should even make as much as TT.


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Is Mangiapane even the best comparison? Seems like Zach Hyman would make more sense. Bread was allegedly in talks to join Team Canada for the Olympics, Seems like other GMs value him more than just points alone. So I could see him getting seriously paid on the open market and after years of being “low balled,” it sounds like his agent is pissed off now and will ask his client to take a 1 year deal straight to free agency.

[Classic_Sniper]

Saw a few suggesting that Pelletier could take Mangiapane’s place. In my opinion, I don’t think there’s a chance that happens with the current head coach. Darryl’s track record suggests he would probably scratch or push Jakob down the depth chart. There’s definitely no youth entitlement under Darryl, the young and inexperienced tend to not thrive under him, that’s for sure.

[Steve Macfarlane]

With everything that has transpired, Gaudreau is sort of the lone 'negotiator' in the process. His success translating into team success is the one thing that can encourage him to stay beyond this season - so essentially he's doing all the talking with his on-ice play right now.

Could see him and Tkachuk committing for at least a few years to keep this core together. All Treliving has to do is open the chequebook to prioritize them above the other RFA and UFA players.

https://calgaryhockeynow.com/calgary...ed-free-agent/

[TheIronMaiden]

It would be surprising if either player went for under 10M.

[BigRed]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Is Mangiapane even the best comparison? Seems like Zach Hyman would make more sense. Bread was allegedly in talks to join Team Canada for the Olympics, Seems like other GMs value him more than just points alone. So I could see him getting seriously paid on the open market and after years of being “low balled,” it sounds like his agent is pissed off now and will ask his client to take a 1 year deal straight to free agency.

Mangiapane isn’t on the open market. He’s an RFA. Consider Troy Terry, who is the only other player in the league to score 30 this year with no #1 P time:

https://twitter.com/RingOfFireCGY/st...Mv_RTNCYqGFbXQ

4.35 for 3 years. That’s the bar. Or we could splurge and pay him 4.85, double his current deal. But we shouldn’t have to.


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[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Saw a few suggesting that Pelletier could take Mangiapane’s place. In my opinion, I don’t think there’s a chance that happens with the current head coach. Darryl’s track record suggests he would probably scratch or push Jakob down the depth chart. There’s definitely no youth entitlement under Darryl, the young and inexperienced tend to not thrive under him, that’s for sure.

Yes but it’s not true young players don’t get chances under Sutter. Kylington had more chances this year in his whole career. Ruzicka also had some chances.

He won’t have too many but there will be some.

[Draug]

Sutter talked it Monday with the press after practice.

He said it's a total myth that he doesn't like young players and that he doesn't give them a chance. He said he will always give a young kid an opportunity to take the veteran's spot in the lineup, if they deserve it. And, he'll let them keep that spot. But he won't just give a young player a spot because he's a good young player. It's all about earning it, on and off the ice. Nothing wrong with that!

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by BigRed

Mangiapane isn’t on the open market. He’s an RFA. Consider Troy Terry, who is the only other player in the league to score 30 this year with no #1 P time:

https://twitter.com/RingOfFireCGY/st...Mv_RTNCYqGFbXQ

4.35 for 3 years. That’s the bar. Or we could splurge and pay him 4.85, double his current deal. But we shouldn’t have to.


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Didn’t say he was, I meant that if he was on the open market, there would be plenty of suitors and I believe Andrew’s agent understands that which is why he went on record saying he have Mangiapane sign a 1 year deal to get him to free agency.

Also, 3 years? Why would Mangipane sign that? Supply and demand is the name of the game in the NHL. There’s a limited supply of good players and every GM wants them, so you have to ante up for them and that usually means big term and big dollars. There’s no doubt in my mind Andrew will be getting a Zach Hyman like contract and he’ll probably get more because he’s a better goal scorer.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by BigRed

Mangiapane isn’t on the open market. He’s an RFA. Consider Troy Terry, who is the only other player in the league to score 30 this year with no #1 P time:

https://twitter.com/RingOfFireCGY/st...Mv_RTNCYqGFbXQ

4.35 for 3 years. That’s the bar. Or we could splurge and pay him 4.85, double his current deal. But we shouldn’t have to.


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Mang would take a 1 year deal and walk straight to UFA with an offer like that.

Mangiapane is going to score 35-40 goals this year while playing a top-tier 200 foot game. If the Flames won’t pay him what he’s worth ($6-$8M on a longer term deal), someone else will 1 year from now.

It’s okay to pay for good players, it’s what good teams do. Everything Mangiapane has done has shown he’s worth investing in long term.

I’m 100% in the camp that if you can sign Mang for 8 years at $7M you do it. He’s worth it, and that deal will look amazing for all 8 years.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Yes but it’s not true young players don’t get chances under Sutter. Kylington had more chances this year in his whole career. Ruzicka also had some chances.

He won’t have too many but there will be some.

This was also Kylington’s 7th season as a pro hockey player. Pelletier hasn’t even completed his first pro season yet. The young guys may or may not get a shot, but their leashes are generally very short under Sutter. Even Ruzicka, he out performed Monahan and yet he’s back down on the farm because he’s not ready to be a full time impact NHLer yet.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Draug

Sutter talked it Monday with the press after practice.

He said it's a total myth that he doesn't like young players and that he doesn't give them a chance. He said he will always give a young kid an opportunity to take the veteran's spot in the lineup, if they deserve it. And, he'll let them keep that spot. But he won't just give a young player a spot because he's a good young player. It's all about earning it, on and off the ice. Nothing wrong with that!

I don’t generally take everything Darryl says in the press as 100% truth. He uses the media from time to time. I remember him saying something along the lines of not benching players because he didn’t believe in it. Yet he benched players just recently.

I look at the evidence and the evidence tells me that Sutter prefers vets over youth. Lewis hasn’t been scratched once this season, yet Dube has been scratched/benched several times. Valimaki is back in the minors when Geoff Ward was playing him as a regular. Ruzicka back in the minors as well despite being very productive in this season. There was also last season when Sutter demoted Hanifin and moved Gio back to the top pair.

I don’t even think it’s necessarily age that’s the problem. Younger players are generally not filled out physically, their games are typically more raw and less refined. There’s lot of subtle nuances to the game and vets usually learn those over the course of their careers. I suspect if a rookie had all of these traits, Darryl would probably play them over the vet. It’s just hard to find young players who are already finished products.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

It would be surprising if either player went for under 10M.

Not really. I still believe both are going to sign for $9.75. They will leave a bit on the table to be able to sign other key pieces.

[BigRed]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I’m 100% in the camp that if you can sign Mang for 8 years at $7M you do it. He’s worth it, and that deal will look amazing for all 8 years.

At that price, you sign and trade him. Something’s got to give. I’m not sacrificing any of Gaudreau, Lindholm, or Tkachuk to keep mangiapane, and at that price, you have to choose. I like the player a lot, but you can’t have it all.

I’m predicting he signs a one year deal at 4.5ish and we trade him at the deadline.

[ComixZone]

Weird double post.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Not really. I still believe both are going to sign for $9.75. They will leave a bit on the table to be able to sign other key pieces.

The last UFA player to do this was Steven Stamkos, and he signed for $$8.5M, or 11.64% of the cap.

Nikita Kucherov signed for $9.5M, or 11.95% of the cap.

Let’s say Johnny is Stamkos and Tkachuk is Kucherov.

Johnny: 8 years at 11.64% of the cap is $9.603M, $76.82M total value.

Tkachuk: 8 years at 11.95% of the cap is $9.859M, $78.87M total value.

That’s if all things were equal. This is Calgary though, and not Tampa Bay - so not all things are equal.

What’s the premium to sign in CGY rather than TBL? 10%? 15%?

Originally Posted by BigRed

At that price, you sign and trade him. Something’s got to give. I’m not sacrificing any of Gaudreau, Lindholm, or Tkachuk to keep mangiapane, and at that price, you have to choose. I like the player a lot, but you can’t have it all.

I’m predicting he signs a one year deal at 4.5ish and we trade him at the deadline.

They don’t have to sacrifice Lindholm/Gaudreau/Tkachuk. You make the sacrifices further down the depth chart. It might mean that we have to sacrifice Kylington’s big pay day, and it will absolutely mean Monahan and Lucic have to move on (which may have a cost), but the whole idea is to build a good core and a core worth maintaining is expensive.

Also, what makes you think this team wound trade it’s 4th best forward in a year they’re trying to compete for a Cup? Nothing in this organization’s history shows you they would even consider that.

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

I don’t generally take everything Darryl says in the press as 100% truth. He uses the media from time to time. I remember him saying something along the lines of not benching players because he didn’t believe in it. Yet he benched players just recently.

I look at the evidence and the evidence tells me that Sutter prefers vets over youth. Lewis hasn’t been scratched once this season, yet Dube has been scratched/benched several times. Valimaki is back in the minors when Geoff Ward was playing him as a regular. Ruzicka back in the minors as well despite being very productive in this season. There was also last season when Sutter demoted Hanifin and moved Gio back to the top pair.

I don’t even think it’s necessarily age that’s the problem. Younger players are generally not filled out physically, their games are typically more raw and less refined. There’s lot of subtle nuances to the game and vets usually learn those over the course of their careers. I suspect if a rookie had all of these traits, Darryl would probably play them over the vet. It’s just hard to find young players who are already finished products.

I think Sutter in this case was 100% truthful. I think he even said something along the lines is he doesn't prefer vets, and all the youth has to do is take the spot away from the vet and they get the ice time. And that isn't because he likes old vs. young, it's because the vets tend to do what Sutter would consider the foundational required to succeed better more consistently.

Fans on the other hand tend to look at the other way, where the bottom 6 vet should need to un-seed a younger player. I think that's because we mostly overvalue upside and potential over the foundational things. One, for starters, it's hard to simply observe some of the foundational things a vet does better when watching a game, vs. observing the higher end talent and potential a young player brings to the table.

Lewis and Dube this year is the perfect use case. Lewis is not an amazing player, and we all can see what his upside / ceiling is. It's certainly a lot lower than Dube. Said another way, Dube's best game, is visibly better than Lewis'. But Lewis does all the little things (Sutter would call it play the right way, defensive and checking mindset) more consistently than Dube night in night out. For Sutter, and it's hard to argue with his results, offensive comes after you do the responsible stuff first, so he favors those that do that, which tends to be the vets because he knows the results for the team will be better. All we see as the average fan is that Dube creates more sometime than Lewis, and we mistakenly think all else is equal, so why not Dube over Lewis.

Sutter has given every younger player who has successfully started with responsibility with the ice time they deserve, and when that happens they un-seat the vets. Maybe you are right, it might be it just takes time to physically develop, but I actually think has more to do with learning how to play right, that takes time. We've even seen how many of our best players have had to learn that this year, and what a difference that has made.

[Hey Connor, It's Mess]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Not really. I still believe both are going to sign for $9.75. They will leave a bit on the table to be able to sign other key pieces.

No way. They are going into negotiations to get the best contract they can.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Steve Macfarlane

With everything that has transpired, Gaudreau is sort of the lone 'negotiator' in the process. His success translating into team success is the one thing that can encourage him to stay beyond this season - so essentially he's doing all the talking with his on-ice play right now.

Could see him and Tkachuk committing for at least a few years to keep this core together. All Treliving has to do is open the chequebook to prioritize them above the other RFA and UFA players.

https://calgaryhockeynow.com/calgary...ed-free-agent/

Zero chance Johnny commits for a few years, brining him to UFA at a time not advantageous to him.