Think you need to update your record column. We only have 2 games left which only gives us the same number of possible outcomes(6), but obviously not 3-0-0 or 1-3-0. Good chart though, think between 5th and 7th is our likely drafting spot, not that thats saying much.
Whoops! Indeed I did. Good catch. Thank you. Updated my original post.
So if the flames win their last 2 games... Which I think they will... They will have a 26% chance of drafting in the top 3 and a 55% chance of drafting 5th/6th/7th. Is my math right on that?
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I forgot to update the records associated with each point possibility. It's fixed now. If the Flames win their last two games they have a 24% chance of picking top 3 (8% + 8% + 8%) and a 73% chance of drafting 6th-8th (21% + 37% + 15%). Those outcomes make up most of the distribution.
Notable changes since the last update is that we are now mathematically eliminated from finishing worse than 6th last and almost certain to finish between 4th-6th last. There's a small 8% chance we finish 3rd last. Net result to the draft pick probability is as follows:
These are the players that have piqued my interest for our 2nd rounder / Dallas pick / florida pick:
- C Clayton Keller
- RW Pascal Laberge
- RW Alex DeBrincat
- LW Cameron Morrison
- LHD Sean Day
- C Mitchell Mattson
- RW Taylor Raddysh
I forgot to update the records associated with each point possibility. It's fixed now. If the Flames win their last two games they have a 24% chance of picking top 3 (8% + 8% + 8%) and a 73% chance of drafting 6th-8th (21% + 37% + 15%). Those outcomes make up most of the distribution.
What are the odds they pick top 3 if they lose their last two games?
EDIT: I guess 30% based on the chart.
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These are the players that have piqued my interest for our 2nd rounder / Dallas pick / florida pick:
- C Clayton Keller
- RW Pascal Laberge
- RW Alex DeBrincat
- LW Cameron Morrison
- LHD Sean Day
- C Mitchell Mattson
- RW Taylor Raddysh
Yeah, Sean Day is rather intriguing no doubt.
He may have fizzled a bit at the CHL level given his exceptional status but there is something to say about a 6'3 230lb defenseman that can skate like the wind.
He may have fizzled a bit at the CHL level given his exceptional status but there is something to say about a 6'3 230lb defenseman that can skate like the wind.
And with his career -75 +/- at the OHL level. Very intriguing.
He may have fizzled a bit at the CHL level given his exceptional status but there is something to say about a 6'3 230lb defenseman that can skate like the wind.
And with his career -75 +/- at the OHL level. Very intriguing.
I've been reading up on Sean Day a lot over this week, actually. He's dropped hardcore down the rankings, but I would be willing to use one of the later 2nds on him.
Sean day has done little to justify he is exceptional except for gaining the tag as the most over-rated prospect in the OHL. If you are unclear on his history, his family and representation demanded he be let into the CHL early, based on his size, skating and skills coming up through Detroit’s Compuware -16 program. He has what amounts to a terrible season on and off the ice. He was sent home in December for attitude problems and requested a trade out of Mississauga.
It was a simple story: the adoration of a big brother by a little brother.
In Sean Day’s case, it was his older brother Scott, who he wanted to emulate growing up in Rochester, Mich.
“I remember watching my brother, Scott, play, and ever since then I wanted to be a hockey player,” said Day. “He was my role model growing up. He’s the reason I wear No. 4.”
Quote:
For his kid brother, a highly touted defenceman with the OHL’s Mississauga Steelheads who could possibly be picked high in next summer’s NHL draft, Scott’s arrest and conviction had a profound impact.
“I got to see him [in jail] once. We kind of just reflected on a lot of the funny things we did,” said Day in an interview with Sportsnet.ca this week. “We were a really close family. We have four sons in our family. All four of us grew up really close to each other. Definitely seeing him go away was sad.”
Quote:
His first season as a 15-year-old “exceptional” player in the OHL went reasonably well, and the second started off very well. But then came his brother’s arrest. Since, his play has been inconsistent, he’s occasionally left the Steelheads to go back home and his draft stock has dropped.
Quote:
Many of Day’s Steelhead teammates aren’t aware of the turmoil in his life. “He’s genuinely affected by it,” said Mississauga head coach James Boyd. “We provide as much support as we can.”
Honestly, having your idol and hockey hero be your big brother only to have him taken away, not being able to have him watch your games... and especially for a very tight-knit family of four brothers, that has to be really crushing as a young player. So I think this whole idea of "undisciplined", "uninterested" etc that have caused critics to be so harsh is really overblown. And I certainly can't blame him for wanting to be traded closer to his family after something like that happening.
Kylington's draft rankings also tanked hard similarly, again probably due to percieved attitude issues, and we took a stab at him with a late 2nd. And he's working out really great so far. If it ain't broke....
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Last edited by Gaskal; 04-06-2016 at 03:32 PM.
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Not sure I'd burn a 2nd on him (Day). Maybe a 3rd. One guy I'm eyeing in the middle rounds is Stefan Falkowsky he's an overager (19 years old) but for a 6'7 d-man with 9G 23A 32P +17 in 58GP I'll overlook that.
