Friedman: Flames have begun extension talks with Gaudreau & Eichel speculation

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Why can't he just get the surgury now? Is the risk buffalo would cancel his contract?

It’s absolutely ridiculous that Buffalo isn’t just letting him get it. Any team that trades for him is going to let him do it immediately. Getting him ready for the regular season sooner should increase his value.

The only reason I can think they are stopping it is that teams may be inclined to wait and see how successful the surgery is before pulling the trigger, and if it isn’t successful, his value will plummet.

It’s not fair to Eichel, but it also makes me think that Buffalo isn’t sold on the idea that the surgery will be beneficial either.

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by 442scotty

And if he never comes off LTIR then Treliving can just sneak out of town ahead of the mob.

Originally Posted by 442scotty

And if he never comes off LTIR then Treliving can just sneak out of town ahead of the mob.

Wonder if teams are trying to put more conditions on the first round pick based on Eichel’s games played/performance so that they can mitigate the risk in spending so many assets on the player. Something like this:

If he plays less than 20 games, the 2022 first round pick becomes a 2nd. If he puts up more than 70 points in 2022-2023, they get a first round pick in 2023. If not, that first round pick becomes a 2nd. Both first round picks would have to be top 5 protected.

They’re still getting your top prospect(s) and your top young player (valimaki/Dube). You’re virtually emptying your cupboard of young players for this player who comes with a lot of risks. And plus, if he does return to health this year and plays like a top centre next year, Buffalo ends up with 2 1st round picks.


Worst case for Buffalo:

Valimaki/Dube
Monahan
Zary
2022 2nd round pick
2023 2nd round pick

Best case for Buffalo:

Valimaki/Dube
Monahan
Zary
2022 1st round pick
2023 1st round pick

This spreads the risk across the two teams.

I heard a few weeks ago that Treliving was being creative in the trade market. This is an example of a creative trade for a star player with big health risks. Again, this could be what a team like the flames might propose. Buffalo is probably pushing for no conditions on the 1st round pick.


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[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It’s absolutely ridiculous that Buffalo isn’t just letting him get it. Any team that trades for him is going to let him do it immediately.

From everything I've seen, the surgery Eichel wants is very likely to end his career. Is it ridiculous to want a guy to be physically able to play when you're committed to spending $50 million on him?

[Wood]

End his career? Where have you seen that?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Wood

End his career? Where have you seen that?

Only one athlete in a contact sport has ever had this surgery. If the artificial disc blows, there is pretty much no repairing it, and a high-speed, high-impact contact sport like hockey provides the perfect opportunity for that to happen – especially with 82 games a year plus playoffs for a five-year span.

[Since1984]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

From everything I've seen, the surgery Eichel wants is very likely to end his career. Is it ridiculous to want a guy to be physically able to play when you're committed to spending $50 million on him?

I have done some reading on artificial disc replacement and didn't see anywhere that it was very likely to be career ending.


Edit: After seeing your response above. It is still not very likely that the artificial disc will "blow".

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Since1984

I have done some reading on artificial disc replacement didn't see anywhere that it was very likely to be career ending.

Clearly your research didn't include Calgary Puck armchair surgeons

[GoinAllTheWay]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Clearly your research didn't include Calgary Puck armchair surgeons

Can confirm I was not consulted on this one.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Since1984

I have done some reading on artificial disc replacement and didn't see anywhere that it was very likely to be career ending.


Edit: After seeing your response above. It is still not very likely that the artificial disc will "blow".

Nobody knows how likely it is, because it was not designed to take that kind of repeated impact and has never been tested in those conditions.

Someone linked to an article by Kyle Trimble, a physical therapist who works with athletes, on Die By the Blade. Here's his conclusion:

There’s a reason we don’t see players getting hip and knee replacements during their playing careers, the prosthetics simply don’t hold up. The only athlete I can recall that returned to play following a hip replacement was Bo Jackson, but he was on the tail end of his career. There are simply too many unknowns.

Research must be done on this and maybe lesser players or players nearing the end of their career would be willing to take the risk knowing that they either can do the procedure and play or they retire. With Eichel, the stakes are higher not only for him but for the Sabres or whoever else if he ends up getting traded.

Decision Time

Normally I am pro-player, but I’m siding with the Sabres medical team on this argument. Jack Eichel needs to be saved from himself. The research isn’t there. Talk to me in 10 years and I might have a different answer. I wouldn’t risk the youth of an elite athlete on a procedure that doesn’t have a proven track record in contact sports. Either be successful with conservative care or get fusion surgery.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Only one athlete in a contact sport has ever had this surgery. If the artificial disc blows, there is pretty much no repairing it, and a high-speed, high-impact contact sport like hockey provides the perfect opportunity for that to happen – especially with 82 games a year plus playoffs for a five-year span.

I’m not saying you’re wrong. The sample size is too small to assume it’s not a huge risk. Buffalo not letting him do it is a warning sign.

Even if the surgery is successful, I have read that it never completely alleviates the pain. I believe that Eichel is damaged goods at this point, but I also don’t think any team that acquires him will stop him from having it.

It’s a double edged sword. Preventing him from starting the season as soon as possible lowers his value, but so would letting him have it just to find out that it didn’t payoff.

[delayedreflex]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Which would pretty much force ownership to do a proper rebuild; the 2nd most desirable option to acquiring Eichel for many of us.

But if you traded the next two 1st round draft picks and/or our top prospects as is expected to be required to get Eichel, you're in a terrible position to start a rebuild. I don't see there being any chance of it being a win/win situation if we obtain Eichel - either he is able to recover successfully from the surgery and it's a win, or he never recovers fully/worst case never plays again and the Flames have to start a rebuild with zero assets in the pipeline. I'm not sure what the probability is of Eichel never playing again is, but the sheer magnitude of that consequence probably has buyers wary, and probably explains why a deal hasn't been done yet.

I have a feeling that the deal will end up looking underwhelming when it's done, which will look bad for either Buffalo or the buyer when it's all said and done - either Eichel returns to form and the return that Buffalo gets is going to look paltry in comparison, or Eichel is done and the buyer spent a ton of assets for nothing. The only scenario where both sides come out happy is if a buyer pays a kings ransom for Eichel but he ends up being healthy and as good as ever. The worst case for Buffalo though is if they just hold on to him and then he never plays again, so I think they will manage to trade him even if the return is not as good as they'd like.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Preventing him from starting the season as soon as possible lowers his value, but so would letting him have it just to find out that it didn’t payoff.

Yet the cost supposedly continues to rise? I don't buy it. Buffalo is going to blink.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Yet the cost supposedly continues to rise? I don't buy it. Buffalo is going to blink.

Who has said that the asking price has been going up? I think this entire time teams have been waiting on Buffalo to blink. It's going to happen eventually.

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[delayedreflex]

Originally Posted by stemit14

Wonder if teams are trying to put more conditions on the first round pick based on Eichel’s games played/performance so that they can mitigate the risk in spending so many assets on the player. Something like this:

If he plays less than 20 games, the 2022 first round pick becomes a 2nd. If he puts up more than 70 points in 2022-2023, they get a first round pick in 2023. If not, that first round pick becomes a 2nd. Both first round picks would have to be top 5 protected.

They’re still getting your top prospect(s) and your top young player (valimaki/Dube). You’re virtually emptying your cupboard of young players for this player who comes with a lot of risks. And plus, if he does return to health this year and plays like a top centre next year, Buffalo ends up with 2 1st round picks.


Worst case for Buffalo:

Valimaki/Dube
Monahan
Zary
2022 2nd round pick
2023 2nd round pick

Best case for Buffalo:

Valimaki/Dube
Monahan
Zary
2022 1st round pick
2023 1st round pick

This spreads the risk across the two teams.

I heard a few weeks ago that Treliving was being creative in the trade market. This is an example of a creative trade for a star player with big health risks. Again, this could be what a team like the flames might propose. Buffalo is probably pushing for no conditions on the 1st round pick.


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I missed this before - but I hope if Calgary does this trade, that it is heavy with these sort of conditions. If Eichel doesn't play again (or anytime soon, at least), we'd better be at least keeping our first rounders. Your proposal still seems high overall (basically up to 5 first-round talent equivalents, while rumor is that Buffalo was looking for 4) but I like the general structure with the picks being conditional on Eichel's performance. It's still a huge loss for Calgary if Eichel never plays again though, so I almost wonder if Buffalo would accept the picks being 100% conditional on Eichel playing (eg. 1st rounders if Eichel gets 70 points in each year, 2nd rounders if Eichel plays at least 50 games, irrespective of points, 3rd rounders if Eichel plays at least 10 games, no pick each year if Eichel plays <10 games).

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Who has said that the asking price has been going up? I think this entire time teams have been waiting on Buffalo to blink. It's going to happen eventually.

I'll tell you what's been going up: the crazy offers from the fevered imaginations of fans who think Eichel will solve all their team's problems. If the Sabres could only make a trade with other teams' fans instead of GMs, they would be shoo-ins to win the Stanley Cup next season.

[Gaskal]

Kevyn's been reading too much HF, the rascal.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

I'm 47, and I've only had three summers of feeling good about this team: 86, 89 and 04.

That's BS. Who wasn't over the moon when Sutter signed Bouwmeester to our top 5 d in the league?.... on paper.

[AC]

The funny thing is I think Eichel would actually be interested in coming to Calgary too.

I'm quite negative and pessimistic when it comes to free agents and players that have control choosing Calgary, but we have a strong contingent of young American players here. Hanifin and Eichel specifically have a close friendship by the sounds of it.

Just like our Swedish contingent playing a role in bringing Markstrom here, I think our American group is a benefit. It sounds like it helped with Coleman too.

Trading a package along the lines of what's been suggested, followed by re-signing Gaudreau and Tkachuk would set us up nicely long term IMO.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by AC

The funny thing is I think Eichel would actually be interested in coming to Calgary too.

I'm quite negative and pessimistic when it comes to free agents and players that have control choosing Calgary, but we have a strong contingent of young American players here. Hanifin and Eichel specifically have a close friendship by the sounds of it.

Just like our Swedish contingent playing a role in bringing Markstrom here, I think our American group is a benefit. It sounds like it helped with Coleman too.

Trading a package along the lines of what's been suggested, followed by re-signing Gaudreau and Tkachuk would set us up nicely long term IMO.

Agreed. This will make me so conflicted watching the next Olympic tournament.

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[Teroy]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

That's BS. Who wasn't over the moon when Sutter signed Bouwmeester to our top 5 d in the league?.... on paper.

Me!