Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[Resolute 14]

Oh, and critical game for the Jets tonight. If they lose in regulation, their odds drop below 50%.



Edit: and just for fun, the Fenwick prediction model finally has is in a dead heat with LA, and rapidly hauling in Winnipeg:

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Beat Arizona, beat Edmonton (far easier said than done), and win one or the other (in regulation) between Winnipeg/LA. Again, easier said than done.

Knowing the Blues, they will dominate us again after choking like mad against all of our opposition.

^this
Oil have won 3 straight, 4 out of last 5. Lighting it up. Typical for them, this time of year.
And anyone who doesn't see this game as the highlight of their season (potentially dealing the Flames playoff chances a crippling blow), then you aren't paying attention.
That 2 points will be every bit as tough as the 2 against the Blues, Jets or Kings.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

^this
Oil have won 3 straight, 4 out of last 5. Lighting it up. Typical for them, this time of year.
And anyone who doesn't see this game as the highlight of their season (potentially dealing the Flames playoff chances a crippling blow), then you aren't paying attention.
That 2 points will be every bit as tough as the 2 against the Blues, Jets or Kings.

I'll still take my chances against Oil, although I agree it won't be like playing the Sabers.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

^this
Oil have won 3 straight, 4 out of last 5. Lighting it up. Typical for them, this time of year.
And anyone who doesn't see this game as the highlight of their season (potentially dealing the Flames playoff chances a crippling blow), then you aren't paying attention.
That 2 points will be every bit as tough as the 2 against the Blues, Jets or Kings.

Hopefully, if the Oilers insist on finishing with a flourish, they can take a couple points from the Kings in their 2 games.

[Tron_fdc]

Pretty sure we're going to lose one of the Phoenix or Edmonton games. Probably Edmonton.

Fortunately, so will LA. They get Edmonton twice, and right now I can see them dropping one of those games (likely tonight). The oil, canucks, or san jose is going to get a chance to put a fork in them.

(go oil go canucks i feel dirty)

[White Out 403]

Huge game tonight. Winnipeg wont play again until we host the Vancouver Dive squad on Saturday.

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Oh, and critical game for the Jets tonight. If they lose in regulation, their odds drop below 50%.



Edit: and just for fun, the Fenwick prediction model finally has is in a dead heat with LA, and rapidly hauling in Winnipeg:

Thats gotta be one of the worst graphs I've seen. Never mind the fact 9 teams are likely to make the playoff, that color legend is impossible to follow. How many shades of dark blue and green did they really need to use?

[EldrickOnIce]

97 points?

Minny 1-5
Canucks 2-4
Winnipeg 3-2-1
Calgary 3-2
Kings 4-1-1

It's looks to be working itself out.
Realistically Jets, Flames and Kings for the last two spots

[Brewmaster]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Thats gotta be one of the worst graphs I've seen. Never mind the fact 9 teams are likely to make the playoff, that color legend is impossible to follow. How many shades of dark blue and green did they really need to use?

Funny how it is rapidly correcting for the fact that Fenwick doesn't predict the results for the Flames.

The Flames Fenwick has been bad for 77 games but here they are ahead of Winnipeg and LA in the standings. Are we really supposed to believe that the last 5 games will be predicted by Fenwick, when it hasn't worked for the first 77?

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Thats gotta be one of the worst graphs I've seen. Never mind the fact 9 teams are likely to make the playoff, that color legend is impossible to follow. How many shades of dark blue and green did they really need to use?

The nine teams 'likely' to make it is proper, actually. View it as three teams for two spots, and all are pretty much on the same point pace. Two spots would equal 200 'percent', which would give each a 2/3rds chance of making it.

Sportsclubstats also has nine teams likely to make it, though LA is much lower. Calgary 84.1, Winnipeg 63.7, LA 51.7.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Brewmaster

Funny how it is rapidly correcting for the fact that Fenwick doesn't predict the results for the Flames.

The Flames Fenwick has been bad for 77 games but here they are ahead of Winnipeg and LA in the standings. Are we really supposed to believe that the last 5 games will be predicted by Fenwick, when it hasn't worked for the first 77?

It's not "correcting" anything. There's less games for LA to make the difference up.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Brewmaster

Funny how it is rapidly correcting for the fact that Fenwick doesn't predict the results for the Flames.

The Flames Fenwick has been bad for 77 games but here they are ahead of Winnipeg and LA in the standings. Are we really supposed to believe that the last 5 games will be predicted by Fenwick, when it hasn't worked for the first 77?

Our Fenwick must have been pretty spectacular last night for our odds to improve by 40%.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

Huge game tonight. Winnipeg wont play again until we host the Vancouver Dive squad on Saturday.

We know what is going on with Winnipeg. And we want them to lose.

[PeteMoss]

Not THE CHART~ again.

[Brewmaster]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

It's not "correcting" anything. There's less games for LA to make the difference up.

The Flames have held a playoff spot for the majority of the season, but this graph has given them a 50% or greater probability for less than 1 week total. If I look at the probability on sportsclubstats, which does not take Fenwick into consideration, the Flames have been 50% or greater for almost the entire season, reflecting their position in the standings. The fact is, this graph is now rapidly correcting for the fact that Fenwick did not accurately predict the Flames position in the standings.

[Jbo]

Would love to see the boys beat Blues/Edm/Arizona and have WIN/LA lose. Make those last couple games less stressful.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Brewmaster

The Flames have held a playoff spot for the majority of the season, but this graph has given them a 50% or greater probability for less than 1 week total. If I look at the probability on sportsclubstats, which does not take Fenwick into consideration, the Flames have been 50% or greater for almost the entire season, reflecting their position in the standings. The fact is, this graph is now rapidly correcting for the fact that Fenwick did not accurately predict the Flames position in the standings.

No, it's not correcting anything. For quite a while, the higher Fenwick team had more games to make a difference and were not 3 points back. Now there's only 6 games left for them and they have to catch up. The graph doesn't have a mind to change

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Edit: and just for fun, the Fenwick prediction model finally has is in a dead heat with LA, and rapidly hauling in Winnipeg:

I know you said just for fun, but the reason I've stopped posting it is because with so few games left a win or loss by the Kings, Flames or Jets can cause a massive swing one way or another.

[Bezer]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

Huge game tonight. Winnipeg wont play again until we host the Vancouver Dive squad on Saturday.

If the Jets lose then that will be a long painful 3 days to wait. And man I do not envy the Jets next week of games... Rangers-Canucks-Wild-Blues.

[Igster]

Can't wait until there is an X beside the Flames in the standings.