Mike Smith's... woes? He blows? Eating crows? Who knows! (Also David Rittich exists!)

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

Whoa now.

Let's put the Islanders into context here. They are 22nd OA in GF/GP. Not exactly an offensive juggernaut. Same goes for AZ at 28th GF/GP and Ana at 31st GF/GP.

Of all the teams you listed, only Pittsburgh is dangerous offensively, at 5th OA in GF/GP. And if I recall correctly, Smith let in 4 against them.

As I've seen it put elsewhere, the next time Smith starts for the Flames will be too soon.

It was in context.

The Flames beat that team twice in a week with Mike Smith in net.

That team was leading the division in both instances. Very good team and Smith was very good in the one game.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Minnesota - possible first-round opponent
Arizona - possible first-round opponent
NYI x 2 - first in their division
Pittsburgh - Crosby and Malkin

And then Anaheim, who sucks.

They are all low scoring teams though...except the Pens

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Wills getting defensive when Pinder days Smith has given up at least 20 softies so far this year.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

says the voice of reason on the James Neal front

Why do you make everything I post about James Neal?

If you want to start a discussion on James Neal, there are plenty of threads for that...

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Context, indeed.

In Rittich's last five starts he has won games against #16 and #20 top-scoring teams, and lost in a S/O to the #27 team. He allowed six goals against the best team in the League, and two goals on six shots against the #2 scoring team.

There is not a perceptible difference between the most recent performances of both Flames goalies. It would be great if people could evaluate them by the same criteria.

So, we can agree then that Rittich has faced the superior opposition on aggregate?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Wills getting defensive when Pinder days Smith has given up at least 20 softies so far this year.

I think 20 is low

[stone hands]

wills getting defensive after mike smith lays an egg

name a more iconic duo

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

So, we can agree then that Rittich has faced the superior opposition on aggregate?

Sure. So long as we can agree that the difference in quality of opposition and the results have been essentially negligible.

[dino7c]

Smith's career is almost over...even if they were even (they are not) the smart thing to do would be to find out what we have in Rittich

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Smith's career is almost over...even if they were even (they are not) the smart thing to do would be to find out what we have in Rittich

The smart thing to to is to ignore both goalie's age and contract status and focus on what is best for the team heading into the playoffs.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Wills getting defensive when Pinder days Smith has given up at least 20 softies so far this year.

Originally Posted by dino7c

I think 20 is low

I was thinking the same thing.

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Sure. So long as we can agree that the difference in quality of opposition and the results have been essentially negligible.

But doesn't similar results, with a disparity between opposition quality, point to a superior body of work?

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

The smart thing to to is to ignore both goalie's age and contract status and focus on what is best for the team heading into the playoffs.

You'd think this would be an easy thing to grasp and support, but it simply isn't.

So weird to me.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

But doesn't similar results, with a disparity between opposition quality, point to a superior body of work?

I didn't say anything about similar results because the results are fairly different:

Rittich won two games against bottom-feeders and lost in a S/O v. the third-worst scoring team in the League. He got lit up by the top two teams and ended with a record of 2-1-1, and was pulled in the other game in that stretch.

Smith played middling-scoring teams who are all either charging for or comfortably in the playoffs, won three of four of those games, and beat a top-five scoring team while allowing four goals to compile a record of 4-1-0 in the same stretch.

So then, a slight edge to Rittich for higher quality of opponent, and a slight edge to Smith for the better results. Like I said, on the balance of everything considered both goalies look to have been playing pretty even.

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ lit up twice?

I don’t know what you consider being lit up

David Rittich has started 33 games, and let in more than 3 goals in regulation twice. Smith has let in 4+ in 5 of his last 11 starts.

Players in front of the goalie have not bestowed upon them equivalent situations.

That 6 goals against TB has been the key reason for the stats upon which the false equivalency narrative is thriving.

Doesn’t matter.

I don’t know why you would expect logic to get someone out of a position into which logic did not get them.

[IliketoPuck]

@theAcerbicCyberBully

Therein lies our difference in opinion.

I'm more of the mind to rely on the respective results displayed by each goaltender over a larger sample size.

Recency bias is certainly something to consider here, both as fans, and for the Flames in evaluating their "best" option.

As you know, such bias by its very nature causes us to overlook key indicators of danger when evaluating data. Such as, a 5 game winning streak vs. over a year of bottom tier goal tending. Sure, we might experience continued outliers for a period of time, but a regression should be expected (and guarded against). Especially so when evaluating a goaltender that is in his late 30's. Expecting continued positive out performance on that basis is not prudent.

The opposite argument could be made for Rittich. His recent games showed an abrupt deviation from his overall body of work. Is that performance level the new norm, or can we expect a positive regression?

Am I biased against Smith? Objectively, the fair answer is yes. I do think Rittich is the superior option. That's not to say he is the future starting goalie for the Flames, but he is in my opinion the definitively superior option between the two.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

The smart thing to to is to ignore both goalie's age and contract status and focus on what is best for the team heading into the playoffs.

That is also playing Rittich...I meant if there was a tie (there isn't one guy is clearly a better option) You would give the ball to the younger guy

I would anyway

Guy is 22-5-5

So in 32 games he has 5 losses that would have been losses by playoff rules

[The Boy Wonder]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

^ lit up twice?

I don’t know what you consider being lit up

David Rittich has started 33 games, and let in more than 3 goals in regulation twice. Smith has let in 4+ in 5 of his last 11 starts.

Players in front of the goalie have not bestowed upon them equivalent situations.

That 6 goals against TB has been the key reason for the stats upon which the false equivalency narrative is thriving.

Doesn’t matter.

I don’t know why you would expect logic to get someone out of a position into which logic did not get them.

This...

Honestly, if anyone says smith would’ve done better in that game they are a fool.

Smith wouldve been shelled based on how poor the flames played that game.

But hey Rittich has a road sv% of .667 in February

Smith must be rising and rittich is now awful again

[TheSquatch]

Breaks down even simpler for me.

Do you trust Mike Smith in the net?


Answer is no. It has to be. Too many bad goals. End of story for me. He's been porous all year, and his best games have been few and far between, and followed by disasters.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

An entire thread of confirmation bias on both sides...cherry picking stats to back up each sides position...a position from which nobody will move.

That's not really it though. Not sure there is a single poster who doesn't want to see Rittich start the playoffs, based on season to date.
There is simply a vocal 'group' crying that the sky is falling when/if Smith starts, when clearly it is not.