Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If we lose the 3 games in New York, we're 10th, depending on what the Islanders do. They play 3 games, against PIT, MTL and us. If they play .500 or better, and we lose these 3 games, they're ahead of us and we're bottom 10.

So I don't think it's too late to tank.

It would be hard to get much lower than 10th (unless BOS can get their #### together), but 10th is still right there.

The best outcome for the club would be to find a way to keep the pick this year and pick in the top 10. I just don't have much hope left we will do that.
Dream scenario is to somehow land Misa still. If we're hoping for long odds might as well hope for a lotto win too!

[Paulie Walnuts]

Tanking for the 26 and 27 drafts is not wasting Wolfs career. The players at the top of the draft are the types who will jump in right away and likely have an impact in short order.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

The best outcome for the club would be to find a way to keep the pick this year and pick in the top 10. I just don't have much hope left we will do that.
Dream scenario is to somehow land Misa still. If we're hoping for long odds might as well hope for a lotto win too!

100%

I still think it's possible - they just need one losing streak, which they have been annoyingly avoiding all year. Maybe this is it.

[Strange Brew]

I guess it's just the Flames luck. One of a bunch of teams fighting for one single playoff spot, higher spots aren't reachable and so the odds are against them.

One of a bunch of teams fighting for that 10th draft pick slot, can't really do any worse so the math is against them there too.

[Jason14h]

We’ll finish 10th and a team will win the lottery which pushes us to 11th

That is the Flames destiny

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

We’ll finish 10th and a team will win the lottery which pushes us to 11th

That is the Flames destiny

Youch this one would hurt heavy. I like the cut of your jib lad.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If we lose the 3 games in New York, we're 10th, depending on what the Islanders do. They play 3 games, against PIT, MTL and us. If they play .500 or better, and we lose these 3 games, they're ahead of us and we're bottom 10.

So I don't think it's too late to tank.

It would be hard to get much lower than 10th (unless BOS can get their #### together), but 10th is still right there.

Every team we are racing with for bottom 10 is also in a playoff race. Boston is 3 points out of a playoff spot. The players are still going to play to win.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I guess it's just the Flames luck. One of a bunch of teams fighting for one single playoff spot, higher spots aren't reachable and so the odds are against them.

One of a bunch of teams fighting for that 10th draft pick slot, can't really do any worse so the math is against them there too.

Here is where my opinion differs from the crew- I think it is/was an entirely predictable outcome. It's like being on a train and knowing the bridge is out ahead, but refusing to pull the brake because the bridge might be rebuilt by the time we get to it... but we all knew they were just starting to rebuild it. My fear is driving the train over the bridge could damage the portion they had started to build already.

It might not "waste wolf's career" as Paulie puts it, but I think it adds additional complications to Wolf's future contract negotiations as it adds an additional year of development time for system assets to catch up to his development curve, which is already peaking. Parekh is in the same curve fortunately as he is overproductive, but we have to get lucky with assets in 26 and 27 having similarly sharp trajectories to align these "windows".

[Robbob]

A Flames loss tonight and they could drop to 12th if the Red Wings, Utah, and Canadiens also win. If Islanders win tonight they would be one point back. Crazy how bunched up the teams are in the middle.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Every team we are racing with for bottom 10 is also in a playoff race. Boston is 3 points out of a playoff spot. The players are still going to play to win.

Boston sucks as well. They had 12 shots on net in their last loss.

After this trip we have 0 games against the east. The east will play the east. Some of the teams in the bottom 10 will get buried even more.

It will have to take a super dive to get into the top 10 now. Like maxing out with 5-6 points for the rest of the season.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

We’ll finish 10th and a team will win the lottery which pushes us to 11th

That is the Flames destiny

That is probably the worst case scenario. The good thing is the 9th spot is in that mix. Hopefully Anaheim and Crosby go on heater to also make that 7th and 8th spot in play.

[Robbob]

I see that Boston and Pittsburgh have already played 69 games. That is not ideal for team tank.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Boston sucks as well. They had 12 shots on net in their last loss.

After this trip we have 0 games against the east. The east will play the east. Some of the teams in the bottom 10 will get buried even more.

It will have to take a super dive to get into the top 10 now. Like maxing out with 5-6 points for the rest of the season.

I agree it isn't likely but the Flames have a very tough schedule the next 7.

They don't have to tank the last 16, they might have to tank the last 9 if the first 7 don't go well.

SJ and Anaheim have no reason to tank and have young players wanting to improve. Records say we should win but sitting a few guys and just falling out of the playoffs could have those teams favored to win as they have been playing meaningless hockey all year and have young players wanting to finish strong.

Flames need to lose without tanking the next 7 to have a chance. Maybe next 8 as Utah is game 8. Looks tough right now but small sample size anything can happen. Didn't Nashville win 17 in a row or something to make it one year and made it last year with half their team injured?

Every day the outlook will change win or lose. Win tonight and we will be looking at playoffs lol

[SuperMatt18]

Looking at the last 16 games for the Flames (5-6-4 in their last 15 prior to this)

@Rangers - OTL
@Devils - Loss
@Islanders - Win
Kraken - Win
Stars - Loss
@Oilers - OTL
@Avalanche - Loss
@Utah (B2B) - Win
Ducks - Win
Knights - Loss
@Sharks - Win
@Ducks - Win
Wild - Loss
Sharks - Win
Knights - Loss
@Kings - Win

If Knights and Kings have locked up 1st and 2nd in the division prior to these games then they become a lot more winnable but it's the Knights 2nd last game and they play Vancouver on the 2nd half of the B2B the following night, so Flames probably get more of a full Knights squad.

8-6-2: 88 points and likely 9th 0r 10th in the conference is my guess.

Looking at the two closest competitors:

Canucks - 15 games remaining (8-7-0 in their last 15)

Jets - Loss
@Blues - Win
@Rangers - Loss
@Devils - Loss
@Islanders - Win
@Blue Jackets - Win
@Jets - Loss
Kraken - Win
Ducks - Win
Knights - Loss
@Stars - Loss
@Avalanche - Loss
Wild - OTL
Sharks - Win
Knights (B2B) - Win

That one is a very tough schedule - 7-7-1 would leave them with 88 points

I actually don't think the Canucks are the biggest risk, That would be the Blues (9-3-3 in their last 15)

@Predators - Win
Canucks - Loss
Blackhawks - Win
Predators - Win
Canadiens - Loss
@Predators - Win
@Avalanche - Loss
Red Wings - Win
Penguins - Loss
Avalanche - Win
@Jets - Loss
@Oilers - Loss
@Kraken - Win
@Utah - Win

So could be 8-6-0 for the Blues, and that would be 89 points and the 8 seed.

IMO the next 7 games for these teams - or until about the end of the games on March 31st will be telling for these teams.

Flames and Canucks both have very tough schedules in that time, and Blues have relatively easy schedule.

So if the Flames or Canucks can tread water, and the Blues don't pull away, then those teams have a pretty good shot. Because it's much tougher for the Blues in their last 6 games, and the Canucks/Flames both have easy schedules to finish and games in hand.

But there is also a pretty good chance the Blues pull away a bit if they can take advantage of the easier schedule over the next 2 weeks.

[Badgers Nose]

@Rangers - Win
@Devils- Loss
@Islanders - Loss
Kraken - Win
Stars - Loss
@Oilers - Win
@Avalanche - Loss
@Utah (B2B) - Loss
Ducks - Win
Knights - Loss
@Sharks - Win
@Ducks - Win
Wild - Loss
Sharks - Win
Knights - Loss
@Kings - Loss

That's my prediction, slightly less than .500.

I don't see the contenders taking Flames lightly, because that is not what good teams do.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Andersson and one of Coleman, Kadri, or Backlund. As Kadri allegedly denied all trades, I suppose one of Coleman or Backlund is who I would have tried for.

We are seeing how bad the team is without backlund right now. IMO Coleman has a similar impact on the forward side, Kadri potentially slightly more.

We also saw the impact losing Bahl had, one of our top 4 d. Also very bad result as our depth is fine but we have no one capable of reasonably filling top 4 duties for sustained time.

We trade one of each of these pieces and we would be in the cellar right now, no question. Add in some additional load management on Wolf once we start getting slogged down...

Backlund also has a full NMC right now.

So it comes down to Andersson + Coleman.

Which is valid. I appreciate you at least provided a response. My point is that the list is pretty short.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Looking at the last 16 games:

@Rangers - Loss
@Devils- Win
@Islanders - Loss
Kraken - Loss
Stars - Loss
@Oilers - Loss
@Avalanche - OTL
@Utah (B2B) - Loss
Ducks - Win
Knights - Loss
@Sharks - Win
@Ducks - OTL
Wild - Loss
Sharks - Win

Thats what I rank it: 10 more points gained. 81 point finish.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Here is where my opinion differs from the crew- I think it is/was an entirely predictable outcome. It's like being on a train and knowing the bridge is out ahead, but refusing to pull the brake because the bridge might be rebuilt by the time we get to it... but we all knew they were just starting to rebuild it. My fear is driving the train over the bridge could damage the portion they had started to build already.

It might not "waste wolf's career" as Paulie puts it, but I think it adds additional complications to Wolf's future contract negotiations as it adds an additional year of development time for system assets to catch up to his development curve, which is already peaking. Parekh is in the same curve fortunately as he is overproductive, but we have to get lucky with assets in 26 and 27 having similarly sharp trajectories to align these "windows".

I don't think your opinion differs as much as you think it does. It isn't radical, it's just abundantly clear (see Athletic ownership poll) that the direction isn't likely to change, certainly not in response to fans.

So folks tiring of the repetition in your message shouldn't be confused with being on board with the direction of the franchise.

[Robbob]

I know prices were high for Dmen at the trade deadline, but I still think you will still get value at the draft if you decide to move on from him. Something similar to when Romanov was traded from Montreal for the 13th pick. I would rather have something like that over a late 20s pick.

[Lewis_D]

Couple weeks ago it felt like all those points we've scrapped from OTLs would get us over the line.... Now it's feeling like that's what will keep us out of a top 10 pick.