E3 2010 - Release Your Inner Nerd

[LockedOut]

Total 180 from Microsoft compared to last years presser. Sony probably won't spend as much time with the Move as MS did with Kinect. They already showed alot of the Move and the games available at the GDC a couple of months ago.

Also what happened to Fable III w/ Natal? That was the one thing from last year people were impressed with Natal but Natal was completely ignored by PM when he introduced Fable. He didn't even hint at it. Kinect is supposed to work with the PC also which is probably the reason why Fable III is coming to the PC after Fable II was AWOL. The theory is that Fable III for the PC will help push Kinect sales for PC users.

As for Sony's presser tomorrow I hope they show a lot from The Last Guardian and Infamous 2. They've had an awesome year with their first party games and they are on a roll.

[Flames0910]

MS did a really good job of getting other studios on board with Kinect. It will be a runaway success for sure and it should have more permanence than the Wii. I assume the Xbox is doing most of the heavy lifting?

Kinect got all kinds of buzz on the evening news. Let's see what happens to Nintendo's stock tomorrow morning.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=OTC%3ANTDOY

At D8, Steve Jobs said that they were waiting for somebody to shake-up the TV industry. I'm looking at what Xbox live is going to do with ESPN and already doing with Netflix...and it seems like that shake-up might be sooner than we think. A quick google shows Xbox to have a userbase that is 40 million strong.
Jobs bemoaned the difficulty of selling yet another top box when cable companies give them away for free. Something like an Xbox sells itself as entirely different, but could reshape an industry.
There are some definite parallels between the iPod/iPhone and Xbox/Kinect+Live

[flamesfan6]

Originally Posted by Flames0910

MS did a really good job of getting other studios on board with Natal. Runaway success for sure. And it will be longer lasting than the Wii.

until people realize that holding your hands around a fake wheel and moving your ankle is actually a really, really, stupid and annoying game.

i'm not sold at all that this would be a fun system to use for 90%+ types of games.

[Flames0910]

Originally Posted by flamesfan6

until people realize that holding your hands around a fake wheel and moving your ankle is actually a really, really, stupid and annoying game.

i'm not sold at all that this would be a fun system to use for 90%+ types of games.

You might be right. There are obvious benefits to removing the Xbox controller from the equation for movies, tv and music - and something like the new harmonix dance game clearly as well. But for everything else (racing games, fps, rpg, sports) there is a lot of established infrastructure to give up on.

But I think the way to look at it is giving developers another option. The Wii's eventual demise was that developing for Nintendo became an either/or decision because it meant procuring new licenses and using completely different development methods (in terms of processing power, graphics capabilities, etc). On top of that it was a move away from the convention, so it was risky.

Developing for something like the Kinect is less so because you could always fall back on the Xbox controller. I would hope you could program a game to be "Kinect enabled" but not Kinect exclusive. Kinect will give developers more muscles to flex on the Xbox platform, and I think that can only be beneficial into the future.

I suppose the last obstacle is whether or not Hardcore gamers would buy something like this, or just the casual users. I think we can look at the Wii to see that they will if it is priced competitively. If some respectable developers actually start pushing the limits of this type of device we could see gamers adopting it in droves.

If not, it will be a passing fad, much like the Wii.

Lastly and as a tangent from the main discussion, $150 for the peripheral PLUS the price of an Xbox is somewhat steep for casual gamers (it's easy to fall into the trap that everybody has an Xbox and it is not necessarily true).

A lot more information has yet to come out, but I'm curious as hell about how Microsoft will implement it. I'm hopeful, and even though they're MS, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt right now because...

1) It's the game division which has always been strong.
2) Nintendo has proven that we can move videogames into new territory (both the product and the market)
3) I want it to work well so that I can buy one!

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Flames0910

MS did a really good job of getting other studios on board with Kinect. It will be a runaway success for sure and it should have more permanence than the Wii. I assume the Xbox is doing most of the heavy lifting?

Kinect got all kinds of buzz on the evening news. Let's see what happens to Nintendo's stock tomorrow morning.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=OTC%3ANTDOY

At D8, Steve Jobs said that they were waiting for somebody to shake-up the TV industry. I'm looking at what Xbox live is going to do with ESPN and already doing with Netflix...and it seems like that shake-up might be sooner than we think. A quick google shows Xbox to have a userbase that is 40 million strong.
Jobs bemoaned the difficulty of selling yet another top box when cable companies give them away for free. Something like an Xbox sells itself as entirely different, but could reshape an industry.
There are some definite parallels between the iPod/iPhone and Xbox/Kinect+Live

Good to know an MS employee posts here.

This is the first positive thing I've seen in regards to the Kinect, so I am not sure Nintendo is super worried.

If a new Zelda game is announced, as someone has said, Nintendo will leave E3 the big winner unless Sony has something huge in the works.

Originally Posted by Flames0910

You might be right. There are obvious benefits to removing the Xbox controller from the equation for movies, tv and music - and something like the new harmonix dance game clearly as well. But for everything else (racing games, fps, rpg, sports) there is a lot of established infrastructure to give up on.

But I think the way to look at it is giving developers another option. The Wii's eventual demise was that developing for Nintendo became an either/or decision because it meant procuring new licenses and using completely different development methods (in terms of processing power, graphics capabilities, etc). On top of that it was a move away from the convention, so it was risky.

The Wii's demise ehhhh? You may want to tell Nintendo that =-o

Originally Posted by Flames0910

Developing for something like the Kinect is less so because you could always fall back on the Xbox controller. I would hope you could program a game to be "Kinect enabled" but not Kinect exclusive. Kinect will give developers more muscles to flex on the Xbox platform, and I think that can only be beneficial into the future.

You realize you can use both the classic controller and gamecube controller with the Wii, yeah? It's not that game developers didn't have a controller to fall back on. It's that they chose not too while developing crap controls for Wii games.

Originally Posted by Flames0910

I suppose the last obstacle is whether or not Hardcore gamers would buy something like this, or just the casual users. I think we can look at the Wii to see that they will if it is priced competitively. If some respectable developers actually start pushing the limits of this type of device we could see gamers adopting it in droves.

The difference between this and the Wii is you have to buy an XBox and the add-on. Ask Nintendo how add-ons sell. Superscope anyone?!

If not, it will be a passing fad, much like the Wii.

Originally Posted by Flames0910

Lastly and as a tangent from the main discussion, $150 for the peripheral PLUS the price of an Xbox is somewhat steep for casual gamers (it's easy to fall into the trap that everybody has an Xbox and it is not necessarily true).

Considering most predictions I've seen have PS3 passing the Xbox in world-wide sales this year, yeah it is a trap.

[Flames0910]

^lol really?

Have you seen my posts in the iPad megathread?

IDK, I don't really care about the mainstream media. Parts of the presentation (I won't say all of it because there were some things that were cringe worthy), but there were parts where I was grinning like a little kid Christmas morning. The possibilities are exciting.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Flames0910

^lol really?

Have you seen my posts in the iPad megathread?

IDK, I don't really care about the mainstream media. Parts of the presentation (I won't say all of it because there were some things that were cringe worthy), but there were parts where I was grinning like a little kid Christmas morning. The possibilities are exciting.

I don't disagree, but your post is essentially treating Nintendo like it's 2002 and the Gamecube is full steam ahead into crap.

Nintendo's first party games are some of the best released in the past few years. The system will likely survive on those alone and continue to be an amazing seller because of that 1st party library and console price, I just don't see the Xbox either getting a huge advantage or even improving slightly because of this.

[Flames0910]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

Nintendo's first party games are some of the best released in the past few years. The system will likely survive on those alone and continue to be an amazing seller because of that 1st party library and console price, I just don't see the Xbox either getting a huge advantage or even improving slightly because of this.

I don't necessarily disagree with you either (Nintendo has some great IP), but even Nintendo said early 2010 that the device has probably peaked. It's probably got a few years of high installed base + new games, but eventually people are going to start putting them in their closet or up for sale on craigslist.

Nintendo did phenomenal because they didn't compete with PS3 and 360. MS and Sony continued moving in one direction and Nintendo veered right. It was an amazing strategy and they made off like madmen because of it. But you can kind of picture Nintendo as the light, agile ship with a huge juggernaut of a warship (MS) bearing down on them. And is Sony on the horizon, closing on the other side? They enjoyed a really strong advantage as early movers and had five years to play with it. But the competitive field is going to get a lot more cluttered, whereas before it was blue ocean as far as the eye could see now you have a few more players.

The question for Nintendo execs is how to hold their position. I'm not saying it is impossible, they've got a pretty good track record and have been working on this for five years, but the future is a little more uncertain than it was yesterday, and that's why I made the cheeky comment about watching the stock price. At the very least, the Wii 2's life cycle and value offering should be interesting to see.

That's why the tech industry is so exciting to watch (at least, for me, and especially recently) - it's a volatile playing field with rapid innovation. Past sales are no guarantee of future success.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Flames0910

I don't necessarily disagree with you either (Nintendo has some great IP), but even Nintendo said early 2010 that the device has probably peaked. It's probably got a few years of high installed base + new games, but eventually people are going to start putting them in their closet or up for sale on craigslist.

That just means they need a new device. Wii has very obvious ways to make improvements (hello HD, 3D for the more adventurous but PS3 will likely be the console of choice for 3D by virtue of having Blu-Ray player built in). A WiiHD that is compatible with the old Wii controllers would open up huge possibilities for developers and a big installed base, and SmashBros/GoldenEye/StarFox/Zelda/MarioKart in HD with the classic controllers, online and split-screen multiplayer (which benefits huge from HD)? Pure win. Wii being sucky and still selling a ton might be a big advantage for Nintendo... massive headroom. It can give people a far more compelling reason to upgrade from the existing version that the PS4 or Xbox720.

[Flames0910]

sick point Seb. I suppose the risk is that people bought it because it was new and innovative but quickly found it underwhelming. They might be less likely to jump in with a Wii 2.

I guess what has me most interested about Kinect is its potential for a game-changing interface device. MS is but a few key steps from owning the living room (a heavy discount if you're buying an xbox as well would be one of them).
the price and lack of games are the obvious barriers right now.

[Pastiche]

re: Wii decline

Don't see it happening soon. Sure HD would be nice but tell that to the tens of millions of people who bought the SD console without any qualms. It's important to remove your 'gamer' sensibilities when evaluating things like the Wii. My effing 90 year old Grandma plays that thing at her care facility. She could care less about HD. And that's the lacuna is evaluating the Wii. It is now broad, or as mainstream as ANY video game system has ever been.

Nintendo wont be getting into a 'spec' war with other machines or try to deliver mroe bells and whistles. They will be dictated by what this huge casual market will demand. Right now, HD graphics are probably very low on the list. What they will demand is more interactivity (heart rate monitor), better more intuitive controllers(motion ++?), and more functional style games (wii fit).

Microsoft has recognized their strategic error in this latest iteration of the console wars. Microsoft blindly and stupidly followed the leadership of hardcore industry gamers to make a niche gaming machine. All the while, they had visions of being just what the above poster said, of dominating the living room. Well sadly for them they came well short in delivering a faulty and niche machine emblematic of Microsoft's culture of failure, over teh top bells and whistles and other features. Where Microsoft failed most particularly is in mindshare. My grandparents or parents even aren't goign to go out and buy a XBOX 360 with KINECT add-in! They're going to go buy a Wii because that's what they already know.

Contrast to the Wii which is plug in and use its simple menu system, the next step is likely more deep integration with the home experience.

[Meelapo]

Looks like there will be a Sly Cooper Collection coming out soon:
http://www.destructoid.com/e3-10-sly...g-176444.phtml

All we need now is a GT5 release date for North America and we're good to go!

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Pastiche

re: Wii decline

Don't see it happening soon. Sure HD would be nice but tell that to the tens of millions of people who bought the SD console without any qualms. It's important to remove your 'gamer' sensibilities when evaluating things like the Wii. My effing 90 year old Grandma plays that thing at her care facility. She could care less about HD. And that's the lacuna is evaluating the Wii. It is now broad, or as mainstream as ANY video game system has ever been.

Nintendo wont be getting into a 'spec' war with other machines or try to deliver mroe bells and whistles. They will be dictated by what this huge casual market will demand. Right now, HD graphics are probably very low on the list. What they will demand is more interactivity (heart rate monitor), better more intuitive controllers(motion ++?), and more functional style games (wii fit).

Nintendo doesn't need to get into a 'spec' war... the next generation Wii doesn't need to beat the next generation PS and Xbox. They can simply close the gap a little and leverage their IP. As for HD, there's a segment of the market that doesn't need it, there's a segment for whom it would be huge. Why not capture both? The hardware can't be that expensive anymore.

[Pastiche]

Why fragment your install base? Huge problems with doing that.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Pastiche

Why fragment your install base? Huge problems with doing that.

That's what reverse compatibility is for.

[Pastiche]

So you expect video game developers do develop both an HD and SD version to fit on one disc?

Have you really thought this all through?

[JayP]

There's really no need for Nintendo to get into a spec war. Microsoft and Sony aren't planning on releasing new consoles for another 4-5 years if you believe their 10-year lifespan talk (and there's no reason not to at this point). Nintendo is probably going to release an HD upgrade for the Wii in 2012 and simply match the specs for the 360/PS3. It'll likely be something is backwards compatible with Wii games + accessories so it isn't a huge commitment for the casual gamer to upgrade.

[Human Torch]

Time for some 3DS action nintendo conference is starting in 15min.

GameTrailers: http://www.gametrailers.com/e3/
GameSpot: http://e3.gamespot.com/
IGN: http://e3.ign.com/
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/E3
1UP: http://www.1up.com/e3/
G4tv Online: http://g4tv.com/e32010
Ustream: http://www.ustream.tv/e3

[Russic]

The reason I feel Kinect will fail is price based. A huge factor in the wii selling well is that it was $250. If the price rumors are true, a Kinect equipped xbox could be around the $500 range. I doubt it will be that high, but even if it's at $400 you're getting into hardcore gamer territory, and these games don't seem directed at them. The wii is harmless, it's something your mom will buy. The Xbox is just too much for that demographic to buy.

I can't believe I scheduled a meeting for 10am. I don't have a wii anymore but I want to see what Nintendo will do.

RE the Goldeneye trailer: No way in hell that game does anything other than totally disappoint everybody and taint the good name of Goldeneye. Unless Rare is developing it there's no real reason to imagine it won't turn into the handful of bond games we've seen since then. On top of that, there's also the fact that shooters on the Wii blooowwwwwww.

[Cscutch]

I believe that with the release of Kinect on the Xbox 360, Microsoft would like to sell as many as possible but it isn't their primary goal. I think it is part of their long term business strategy of the digital home, and this first release will be more of a development platform. If you look at some of the other products such as HD streaming, Microsoft live, and even cloud computing from the business side it wouldn’t surprise me to see them all interconnect.

The next console release could be as simple as the kinect device that you connect to the internet/TV and you stream your media, watch TV, and play games. No hardrive or disk drives… Hey even possible that they charge you per use instead of paying for the whole game.

Chris