Under the NATO standards thats irrelevant, an attack on a NATO allies soil is an attack on yours, now I don't have the tables of required response, however unless a NATO ally is willing to pull out of NATO and stand alone, then things like support for sending troops over seas are irrelevant. As a nation if a NATO country was attacked, then there are certain units that are expected and pre committed to the Order or battle that NATO expects to field.
Thats not relevant unless you as a nation are willing to break the terms of the NATO alliance, which basically amounts to, if your the next on the Russian chopping block then don't expect any help from NATO because you didn't live up to your end of the bargin. In NATO, you can't pick and choose your alliances within NATO, you are there to mutally support all of your allies.
I realize all that but the point is that is this standard worth the paper its written on? Do you really think that Europe and Canada will be ready to go into full blown war if some eastern nation was attacked? Estonia was a good example.
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Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
What does this have to do with anything, the Czech's and the Hangarians were not NATO allies, they were basically Eastern Block Soviet client states, so it was unlikely that NATO was going to do anything to help them. However look at the amount of firepower that was based in West Germany at the time. If Germany had been attacked then you could bet that the French, Spaniards, Canadians would be expected to show up and support Germany, or any other NATO ally.
The similarity is that back then the west pretty much accepted that these countries "belonged" to Russian empire and they did not do anything about it, and the west (the EU especially) pretty much again accepts that Georgia falls into Russian hands and does nothing about it. Was Russia threatened to be kicked out of G8 (where it doesnt belong anyway)? Did the EU threaten Russia to terminate the special EU-Russia partnership? No, because once the Russians turn off gas and oil supply, Europe will bend over and NATO treaty will be quickly forgotten.
Russia doesn't actually have to start another Cold war (or another hot conflict) to cause trouble. They could simply turn around and sell Iran next generation surface to air missiles, which was something they have threatened in the past. No country enjoys falling from power. Much like China (as in when they thought of themselves as the Middle Kingdom), if Russia wants back to being world superpower and having that sphere of influence they once did
But you have to admit that the prospect of a Russia with a better handle on their resources, a much improved economy not under a bumbling command economy, and with aspirations to ascend to world power status is much scarier then.
A Soviet Union with the inability to harness their resources, a economic system that didn't function in the real world or global community, and a army that was built around sheer numbers instead of professional training.
If the Russian's decide to rattle the sabre and test the resolve of the West, and they're not slapped across the face, they will become much bolder down the road.
Have they actually improved anything? Their economy is nowhere NEAR the level it was during the Cold War. Even their military isn't up to par, in sheer numbers, OR training, not to mention in terms of equipment either.
People make a big deal about the 'Black Sea Fleet'....or the rumors surrounding what it is doing, but forget the fact that it wouldn't stand a chance against a carrier battle group. Heck, if the Russians piss off the Turks, how exactly is the Black Sea Fleet supposed to get out of the Black Sea?
But, I know what you're saying. If Russia is determined to regain prominence as a superpower, and nobody stands up against them, down the road they 'might' be a force to be reckoned with. But not right now.
Also, another thing most people probably don't think about....the US has the most proficient 'combat' trained military in the world. A very large percentage of the troops have been through the meat grinder in Iraq. That is experience that cannot be replaced.
Russia doesn't actually have to start another Cold war (or another hot conflict) to cause trouble. They could simply turn around and sell Iran next generation surface to air missiles, which was something they have threatened in the past. No country enjoys falling from power. Much like China (as in when they thought of themselves as the Middle Kingdom), if Russia wants back to being world superpower and having that sphere of influence they once did
I'm not aware of the exact specs, but I have a feeling that whatever generation of SAMs Russia has, they're a long way from being able to match the ability of the F22.
Israel don't have F-22s (yet). It's used as more as a way to establish better relations with Iran, and towards establishing a larger presents in the Middle East, and hence creating even more volatility in that region
Israel don't have F-22s (yet). It's used as more as a way to establish better relations with Iran, and towards establishing a larger presents in the Middle East, and hence creating even more volatility in that region
I'm not really talking about Israel.
We'll hope that Europe shows some balls for once, and steps on Russia big time should they ever attempt something so stupid.
Have they actually improved anything? Their economy is nowhere NEAR the level it was during the Cold War. Even their military isn't up to par, in sheer numbers, OR training, not to mention in terms of equipment either.
I don't disagree, however their government is much better structured and real world compared to where it was in the bad old days. In a lot of ways their military is probably ahead in training over the bad old days when their doctrine was not as flexible and based around a 5-1 coalition of forces. Many of their senior officers were present in Afghanistan and remember what a cluster that was and went about a reformation of their training and force structures as their budgets got cut.
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Originally Posted by Azure
People make a big deal about the 'Black Sea Fleet'....or the rumors surrounding what it is doing, but forget the fact that it wouldn't stand a chance against a carrier battle group. Heck, if the Russians piss off the Turks, how exactly is the Black Sea Fleet supposed to get out of the Black Sea?
I think I mentioned that a couple of days ago, against a carrier battle group the black sea fleet would get cut to pieces, but they would would probably do fairly well against another frigate navy as Soviet Naval Aviation would get involved.
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Originally Posted by Azure
But, I know what you're saying. If Russia is determined to regain prominence as a superpower, and nobody stands up against them, down the road they 'might' be a force to be reckoned with. But not right now.
Right now what the Russian's are doing is to some extent sabre rattling against the West, one thing that Putin has done during his time is to pump funds back into the military and demand an increase in readiness across the board, as for example Russian bombers are back to testing the northern defenses, and they are more then willing to enter combat. One other thing is that the soviet military is a little more pragmatic then Western ones in terms of completely flattening all oppossition in terms of cvilian and military as oppossed to the Western model of trying to avoid doing that.
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Originally Posted by Azure
Also, another thing most people probably don't think about....the US has the most proficient 'combat' trained military in the world. A very large percentage of the troops have been through the meat grinder in Iraq. That is experience that cannot be replaced.
Sure, however you have to agree that there is a concern over both the spliting of the American military and the possibility of mass fatigue as the U.S. military has been deployed continuously since about 2002, this has to have had a impact on equipment, logistics and unit readiness.
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My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
three NATO warships sailed into the Black Sea on Thursday for what the alliance said were long-planned exercises and routine visits to ports in Romania and Bulgaria not linked to the conflict in Georgia.
In a somewhat non related note not linked to the conflict, I found this interesting, Russia has 8 nuclear subs on the way.
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the new sub will have no matches in the foreseeable future. "Yuri Dolgoruky" with 14,7/24 thousand tons (surface/underwater) displacement carries strategic rocket complex Bulava-M consisting of 12 so called quasi-ballistic missiles with ten nuclear warheads of individual aiming. The range of the missile that for the first time in the world’s history has changeable trajectory and can reach hypersonic speed is 8000km. The crew of the sub will be formed only with officers and NCOs.
Before 2015 State Arms Program provides for building 7 project 955 subs. In the next two years the eighth will be constructed under a new Arms Program. Alexander Nevsky (the second sub) will be ready by 2009 and Vladimir Monomah – by 2011.
Your talking about the Borei class missile submarine, using the Bulava ballistic missile thats not even in the testing phase yet. The Borei is the replacement for the Typhoon submarine (hunt for Red October anyone), which was discontinued when the Russians discontinued the missiles that it used.
The russians are building 7 of these things, however the American's still have 18 Ohio's running around. However the American's don't really use the Ohio class boats as strictly deterrant SSBN's anymore. They converted 4 to become conventional guided missile subs, and they're probably going to retire the ballistic missile models as they go along, but if the Ruskies are getting back into building nuclear strategic platforms the American's are going to have to rethink that strategy. If the Russians build their 7, and the American's retire their Ohio's without a replacement it puts the Yanks at a significant disadvantage in terms of deterrent.
In terms of a missile with an 8000 km range, the Russian boats can pretty much fire off their missiles without leaving their berthing.
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My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Now that the dust has settled a bit it looks like Georgia has lost half its coast.
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In an announcement on Russian television, President Medvedev said he had signed a decree recognising Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states and called on other states to follow his example.
Bush decides that "irresponsible actions" aren't good and the UN security council should be obeyed whilst Saakashvili didn't get the memo that there was a war in Yugoslavia a few years back.
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President Bush said Russia should "reconsider this irresponsible decision" and "live up to its international commitments"........
.......Mr Saakashvili described the declaration as "the first attempt in Europe after Nazi Germany and the Stalinist Soviet Union to... change the borders of Europe by force".
Nonetheless Russia isn't backing down on this one.
That actually surprises me that Russia would go that far.
With between 600,000 and 1 million ethnic Ossetians in Russia (more than South Ossetia), it's only a matter of time until they want a state too. In fact, Russia has several different ethnic groups that currently don't have a state of their own.
They could be helping their own demise with this decision.
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"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
I'm now convinced that Russia invaded Georgia to position themselves for an upcoming war with Israel.
Luckily, God is going Palpatine on the Russians.
Israel now expects there will be peace, because of the covenant or treaty with the Antichrist. A thought comes into the mind of the Russian leader to invade Israel. It is God that brings Russia and its allies forth to invade. Even though God brings them, He is against them and will ultimately destroy them to fulfill His purpose.
The leader of Russia (Gog) assembles what may be the largest military armada ever put together in the history of the world. This enormous military force (of millions of troops) is backed up with a vast navy and air force, having missiles, advanced technology, spy satellites, and other sophisticated Russian weaponry. As the second seal is broken, war appears to come unexpectedly upon Israel. Russia and its many allies attack Israel. They come fast as a whirlwind and as a cloud to cover the land. They come with many ships by the Mediterranean Sea and possibly the Red Sea. They appear to come from the north and also from the northeast, through Jordan. They appear to come from the southwest, from Africa. They come from the air with an airborne invasion. In other words, the invasion seems to come from nearly every direction, including the ground, the sea, and the air.
They invade Israel for the purpose of coming against the Jews and to obtain food, various goods, and riches, including silver and gold.
The little nation of Israel appears to be overwhelmed. One moment they are dwelling safely. The next moment Israel is surrounded on nearly every side by the biggest invasion force ever assembled in the history of the world. Russia and its allies sweep through many nations; however, the chief of Amman shall escape. Egypt appears to fall to Russia. Russia may double-cross Libya and Ethiopia and be on their doorsteps.
Israel’s situation is hopeless. They begin to turn to God with all their heart, with fasting, with weeping, and mourning. They cry out, "Spare thy people, O Lord."
Then the Lord comes to their rescue. He is jealous for His land and pities His people.
That actually surprises me that Russia would go that far.
With between 600,000 and 1 million ethnic Ossetians in Russia (more than South Ossetia), it's only a matter of time until they want a state too. In fact, Russia has several different ethnic groups that currently don't have a state of their own.
They could be helping their own demise with this decision.
Indeed. If it wasnt for the Quebec problem, I would have loved to see Canada, along with the US and the rest of Nato/EU unilaterally recognize Chechnya and any other province within the Russian Federation desiring independence.
Indeed. If it wasnt for the Quebec problem, I would have loved to see Canada, along with the US and the rest of Nato/EU unilaterally recognize Chechnya and any other province within the Russian Federation desiring independence.
But who is to say that the ethnic Ossetian's want independence from Russia?
Saakashvili's quote comparing this Russian incident to the Nazi's and Stalinist Soviet Union is complete garbage, propaganda and nothing more. That man seriously needs to be reigned in.
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Who is in charge of this product and why haven't they been fired yet?
Russia is bitter with the whole Kosovo thing, so this is their "Haha, how do you like it" pose. In their eyes, South Ossetia was an innocent province of Georgia that had successionist dreams. Georgia says no and invade causing humanitarian distress. Russia is compelled to come in and drive back the Geogian forces and declare South Ossetia as an independent state. Just like Kosovo from Serbia
Unfortunately for Russia, the comparison between Kosovo and South Ossetia is not the same in the eyes for the International community. With the Canadian government's reaction towards Russia in this conflict, I don't think the Canadian government will go as far as to recognize South Ossetia as an independent state
Russia-Georgia conflict created a big headache for Israel which armed and trained Georgians for years - and now suddenly Russians threaten retaliation by supplying S-300 SAM batteries to Syria. Here is what a prominent Israeli analyst says: http://samsonblinded.org/blog/on-rus...and-israel.htm
And this is the country that Bush was pushing to have NATO membership.
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The war in Georgia last year was started by a Georgian attack that was not justified by international law, an independent report has concluded.However, the attack followed months of Russian provocation, the EU-sponsored report said.
Russia said the report delivered an "unequivocal answer" on the question of who started the conflict.
But Georgia said the investigation proved that Russia had been preparing for war all along.
The death toll from the August 2008 war is generally put in the hundreds. Tens of thousands fled their homes.
The report was commissioned by the Council of the European Union, and written by Swiss diplomat Heidi Tagliavini, with the help of 30 European military, legal and history experts.
And with the benefit of hindsight a look back at both Presidential candidates comments on the crisis at the time.
Mc Cain: "I share their (Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) regret that NATO's decision to withhold from Georgia a Membership Action Plan may have been viewed as a green light for aggression in the region."
Obama: "I strongly condemn the outbreak of violence in Georgia, and urge an immediate end to armed conflict. Now is the time for Georgia and Russia to show restraint, and to avoid an escalation to full scale war. Georgia’s territorial integrity must be respected. All sides should enter into direct talks on behalf of stability in Georgia, and the United States, the United Nations Security Council, and the international community should fully support a peaceful resolution to this crisis.”
And of course Bush: “In a statement at the White House, President George W Bush accused Russia of “bullying and intimidation”, saying it was an unacceptable “way to conduct foreign policy in the 21st Century”.”
Anyways. all in all a great job by Saakashvili. He invites the Russians in and gives them good reason to grab a foothold, and make an argument for being in 2 territories, blows any chance his country ever had of getting NATO membership, gets a significant chunk of his military hardware taken out, not to mention the infrastructure damage and is condemned in an independant review for creating the whole mess.
WSJ's take on the report.
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A 9-month international investigation into the 2008 war in the Caucasus concludes that Georgia triggered the war, but that Russia had prepared the ground, broke international law by invading Georgia as a whole and that Russia-backed South Ossetian militias conducted ethnic cleansing of Georgian civilians, according to a copy of the conclusions reviewed by the Wall Street Journal.
The conflict, which briefly brought the U.S. and Russia into Cold War-style confrontation, left some 850 people dead, forced more than 100,000 people from their homes and has left Russian troops in occupation of two territories in Georgia, the report said.
Compiled for the European Union by Swiss diplomat Heidi Taglivini, the report found that while there was evidence that regular Russian troops as well as volunteers and mercenaries had entered South Ossetia in Georgia before the start of the conflict on Aug. 7, no evidence was found of the full-scale Russian invasion to which Georgia said it was responding.
Answering the question of whether Georgia's decision to shell the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, on Aug. 7 was justifiable under international law, the report concludes: "It was not."
The conclusions found that Moscow was justified in its initial intervention, because some of its peacekeepers in the territory were, or were in danger of being killed. But the report leaves neither side looking good.
Think of it this way - Georgia is sitting still trying to do its own thing, and Russia, the big kid with no scruples, is sitting next to him poking him over and over in the head with his finger. Georgia ignores it until it can't ignore it no more.
Then, after enough pokes, Georgia punches Russia in the face, and Russia turns around and smatters Georgia all over the floor, at which point Russia tells everyone that Georgia threw the first punch.
What did the EU think was going to happen? Geebuz.
I hear what you're saying, but in a legal sense, for starting the conflict? Yes. Both sides don't escape blame in the report.
I'm sure there'll be a lot of spinning in the next few days and was mentioned in the YT clip the report is massive.
Reports starting to flow in:
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"In the mission's view, it was Georgia which triggered off the war when it attacked Tskhinvali (in South Ossetia) with heavy artillery on the night of 7 to 8 August, 2008," the head of the fact-finding mission said.
Mr Saakashvili has long insisted that the attack in South Ossetia was launched after Russian tanks moved into the breakaway region.
"None of the explanations given by the Georgian authorities in order to provide some form of legal justification for the attack lend it a valid explanation," said the team head, Swiss diplomat Heidi Tagliavina.
"In particular, there was no massive Russian military invasion under way, which had to be stopped by Georgian military forces shelling Tskhinvali," she added.
But the 19-member investigating team, commissioned last December to look into the causes of the five-day war, also found evidence that Russia had fomented tensions.
"The Russian side, too, carries the blame for a substantial number of violations of international law," said Tagliavina. She said Moscow's actions included conferring Russian citizenship en masse to people living in South Ossetia and the other separatist region, Abhkazia.
She said Russia had broken international law in that "the military action by the Russian Armed Forces on Georgian territory, (was) far beyond the needs of a proportionate defense of Russian Peace Keepers in Tskhinvali."
