McKenna Watch

[Roof-Daddy]

I keep saying it, but getting McKenna would be like getting Kucherov IMO

And I'm going to predict that Gridin is going on a similar path as the one Pastrnak went on.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Yeah me too. It's about time the hockey gods smiled on this organization so we don't have to keep talking about it. Until that happens it's going to continue to be a thing that's discussed amongst longtime fans that have not seen much good fortune come to this organization over the decades.

Not sure you can really speak to lottery luck when you've never had a bottom three finish.

How many bottom five finishes in Calgary Flames history? 1?

The Flames just don't have a lot of true lottery experience.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Odds are you lose the lottery to the aggregate when you’re dead last. I’m not particularly excited one way or the other until the balls are pulled. Or if the top two are clearly above the rest.

Everybody has their own specific preferences, but let's keep the discussion on hockey.

[bettercallbettman]

Has McKenna impressed in the NCAA?

[Canada 02]

10 pts in 8 games, including 4 pts this weekend. He’s had flashes.
Penn has played 8 games against 4 pretty weak teams. Only ASU was ranked at the time they played. The schedule gets much harder the rest of the way. All but two games remaining are against the Big10 conference. Should be a challenge, but also great hockey

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Strong point from Bingo.

We've never had luck with years of having ~4% odds, therefore we won't have any luck with 18-25.5% odds!

Well, those are significantly different probabilities. Most teams dont get lucky drafting where we typically do. Its not just the Flames. The Islanders last year were an outlier, not the norm.

Usually the top 3-4 remain with a slight reordering.

Bottom line though is there's no history of those true "lottery" probabilies to support such a negative outlook.

What's true is if the Flames finish last they're getting a top 3 pick no matter what. Exactly what the franchise hasn't had.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Strong point from Bingo.

We've never had luck with years of having ~4% odds, therefore we won't have any luck with 18-25.5% odds!

Well, those are significantly different probabilities. Most teams dont get lucky drafting where we typically do. Its not just the Flames. The Islanders last year were an outlier, not the norm.

Usually the top 3-4 remain with a slight reordering.

Bottom line though is there's no history of those true "lottery" probabilies to support such a negative outlook.

What's true is if the Flames finish last they're getting a top 3 pick no matter what. Exactly what the franchise hasn't had.

Early days of course but as of now I would say if they are top 5 they are getting a massive piece
The higher the better of course. But one of McKenna, Verhoeff, Stenberg, Roobroeck or Lawrence would all be fantastic

[Ba'alzamon]

I'd much, much, much rather have Bjorck or Belchetz than Roobroeck, based on what I've seen so far.

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by Ba'alzamon

I'd much, much, much rather have Bjorck or Belchetz than Roobroeck, based on what I've seen so far.

Bjork seems to be a little undersold, i think hockey writers had him as a second rounder, guessing all aboot frame even though he is breaking records. Would be terrible if flames got a third pick and walked out with vaerhoff, bjork and hextall cuz Bjork is short.

[Ba'alzamon]

Originally Posted by Fan69

Bjork seems to be a little undersold, i think hockey writers had him as a second rounder, guessing all aboot frame even though he is breaking records. Would be terrible if flames got a third pick and walked out with vaerhoff, bjork and hextall cuz Bjork is short.

I might die of shock if Bjorck slips to the second round lol.

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by Ba'alzamon

I might die of shock if Bjorck slips to the second round lol.

I don’t either as i mentioned if he slipped to around the 20’s due to size and we had another pick? Would i be surprised if he went top ten? Nope.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Ba'alzamon

I might die of shock if Bjorck slips to the second round lol.

I might if he slips to the Vegas pick

[Sandman]

Bjorck's 74 points in 42 games are the highest total ever posted by a U-17 player in Sweden's J20 League, by a huge margin- the next best is Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, with 50 points in 36 games.

Likewise, Bjorck's 15 points in 9 playoff games are the best ever by a U-17 player in the J20, the next highest player being 9 points in 7 games.

(From my post in August…)

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Much tamer numbers in the SHL though, and he's a smaller player.

If Vegas dropped off a cliff somehow and their pick was in the early teens, I'd gladly take a flyer on the kid if he was on the board.

[Itse]

I fully expect Edmonton to win the lottery. If not them, someone else in our division at least.

It's just the kind of expectations I have.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Much tamer numbers in the SHL though, and he's a smaller player.

If Vegas dropped off a cliff somehow and their pick was in the early teens, I'd gladly take a flyer on the kid if he was on the board.

Maybe so, but the fact a kid his age is getting the kind of time he is in the SHL is quite impressive in itself- there are only 2 other U-18 players who have been given time in the SHL to date this season- Oscar Holmertz with 1 game (no points), and Niklas Aram-Olsen with 4 games (no points). Bjorck has 4 points in 12 SHL games, and just for the sake of argument- if the season were to end today, Bjork would own the 21st-best ppg (0.33) by a U-18 player in that league (with 10 games or more) all-time.

[Snuffleupagus]

Yeah, people don't realise how hard it is for 17 year old's to get ice time in the SHL's top league

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by bettercallbettman

Has McKenna impressed in the NCAA?

Not really, just surviving

Kinda disappointing but there is still time

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Not sure you can really speak to lottery luck when you've never had a bottom three finish.

How many bottom five finishes in Calgary Flames history? 1?

The Flames just don't have a lot of true lottery experience.

https://flamesnation.ca/news/the-cal...-draft-lottery

There is no such thing as true lottery experience as a team is either in the lottery or it isn't. The odds really that great regardless of where you finish as finishing 5th is only 8.5%. The reality is that 16 teams are involved and all of them have relatively low odds but plenty of teams over the years have moved up. I didn't write this article (so clearly I'm not spearheading this) but you can tack on 2 more years to make 14 draft lotteries and zero luck. Yes the odds are low on a lot of them but the odds are low for all the teams and we have seen several teams with low odds like the Flames move up. In the last 6 years we have seen the 14th and 10th pick win 1st overall so clearly some teams have had luck. It's not a matter of the Flames having bad luck here and simply more a matter of no luck.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

https://flamesnation.ca/news/the-cal...-draft-lottery

There is no such thing as true lottery experience as a team is either in the lottery or it isn't. The odds really that great regardless of where you finish as finishing 5th is only 8.5%. The reality is that 16 teams are involved and all of them have relatively low odds but plenty of teams over the years have moved up. I didn't write this article (so clearly I'm not spearheading this) but you can tack on 2 more years to make 14 draft lotteries and zero luck. Yes the odds are low on a lot of them but the odds are low for all the teams and we have seen several teams with low odds like the Flames move up. In the last 6 years we have seen the 14th and 10th pick win 1st overall so clearly some teams have had luck. It's not a matter of the Flames having bad luck here and simply more a matter of no luck.

Found a reddit source that looked at positions moved since the lottery started.

The Flames are ranked 17th for movement (1st best) at -1

Senators and Red Wings the worst at -9.

Chicago and all three New York area teams at the top between +11 and +16

https://www.reddit.com/r/DetroitRedW...date/#lightbox

Paints the Flames at pretty vanilla all time in lottery results.