[Game Takes] Canucks 4 Flames 3

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Certainly seems to point towards the Flames not being particularly good defensively, no?

Marky has the lowest SV% and xSV%, the worst GAA and xGAA, but still finds himself at 5th on that chart.

Pointed out on the weekend that five on five the Flames have the 5th lowest shots allowed per 60, but the 16th lowest xGA/60.

That speaks to save percentage being pushed low by the team play.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I can’t think of a game where they lost and I said “Markstrom cost the game”. I think he’s been way above last year. The surface level save% number is a bit misleading here.

IMO, along with player +/- , the most misleading player stat in the NHL.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by timbit

IMO, along with player +/- , the most misleading player stat in the NHL.

More misleading than GAA? In my opinion SP is much more useful, but also needs to be considered in its proper context.

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[Inferno]

Originally Posted by timbit

IMO, along with player +/- , the most misleading player stat in the NHL.

The Dallas game shows it too. .813 but if you didn't know that you wouldn't say he was bad. He only faced 16 shots but they don't come back and win without him.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Bingo

He certainly wasn't the problem last night, and doesn't appear to be the problem on any night.

But can't hide from that save percentage for sure.

The problem with Markstrom is that he makes some five alarm saves, while also letting in soft goals. It's been the same thing with Vladar for the most part.

I'd prefer to see the team run with Vladar for a stretch just to see if he can pick it up if he gets to play more. We haven't really seen if he can get the rust out if he plays more, which is what a lot of goalies need. I just don't see the down side in trying. The worst case scenario is that it doesn't work and nothing changes.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

The problem with Markstrom is that he makes some five alarm saves, while also letting in soft goals. It's been the same thing with Vladar for the most part.

I'd prefer to see the team run with Vladar for a stretch just to see if he can pick it up if he gets to play more. We haven't really seen if he can get the rust out if he plays more, which is what a lot of goalies need. I just don't see the down side in trying. The worst case scenario is that it doesn't work and nothing changes.

The team is still trying to make a playoff push.
If they think Markstrom gives them a better chance to win (which the data suggests) then they are going to run with him.

He's been good enough this season. There's simply no reason to give the backup a run, particularly when he's performed worse.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

In Markstrom's games in November prior to Saturday:

· 11/30: Dallas scored first on their fourth shot on goal
· 11/24: Dallas scored first on their first shot.
· 11/22: Nashville scored first on their third shot
· 11/18: NYI scored second on their seventh shot
· 11/16: Vancouver scored first on their sixth shot
· 11/14: Montreal scored second on their fifteenth shot
· 11/7: Nashville scored first on their second shot
· 11/1: Dallas scored second on their eleventh shot

Make of that what you will. I suspect this is all pretty random and that people are thinking it happens all the time because Markstrom has allowed the first goal on the first shot in two of his last three games. I don't think there is enough there from which to establish a pattern.

Including last game, it's 4/9 scored on first 3 shots, 5/9 on first 4 shots. Not enough data for a conclusive pattern, but it suggests he or the team are not ready much of the time.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Including last game, it's 4/9 scored on first 3 shots, 5/9 on first 4 shots. Not enough data for a conclusive pattern, but it suggests he or the team are not ready much of the time.

I definitely think they were slow to start against the Canucks. Can't say the same about the Dallas game. That was just a crazy game.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Including last game, it's 4/9 scored on first 3 shots, 5/9 on first 4 shots. Not enough data for a conclusive pattern, but it suggests he or the team are not ready much of the time.

It only suggests this if it is unusual. A proper analysis requires collecting data from every game for the month of November. I am not at all convinced that it is particularly unusual for a team to allow the first goal in the first 3 mins of a game half the time. I suspect that this is pretty typical.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

It only suggests this if it is unusual. A proper analysis requires collecting data from every game for the month of November. I am not at all convinced that it is particularly unusual for a team to allow the first goal in the first 3 mins of a game half the time. I suspect that this is pretty typical.

So far your average NHL team allows 3.15 GPG. So a little over a goal per period.

Stole this from some reddit dude so I can't vouch for it but it sounds right:

The chances of the first goal being scored in any given minute roughly decays exponentially as the game progresses. The most common minute is the second minute of the game, probably because the first minute begins with a faceoff, and no real scoring opportunity for 3-4 seconds. The first goal of a game is scored in the second minute with a frequency of 7.7%. (The first minute is slighty lower at 6.4%.) There is a slight uptick in number of first goals in the last minute of the 1st and 2nd periods compared to surrounding minutes.

EDIT:

Flames are one of the better teams at scoring in the first 10 minutes:

https://www.bestodds.com/odds/nhl/gift/

EDIT 2:

The team that scores first wins more often but that's a bit misleading since maybe the team that scored first did so because it scores more goals in general, because it's a better team.

[Flamesfan05]

Vladar has not done anything close to enough for the Flames to abandon the guy they are still investing 6M for the next 3 yrs

The only thing that is going to change is if someone is willing to pick one of them up

I doubt it. You don’t see goalie moving much even with some teams desperate for help

[Teroy]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

The team is still trying to make a playoff push.
If they think Markstrom gives them a better chance to win (which the data suggests) then they are going to run with him.

He's been good enough this season. There's simply no reason to give the backup a run, particularly when he's performed worse.

No he hasn't. He gets paid 6 million; the 7th highest paid goaltender in the league. We should be raving about his play, not be satisfied with "good enough".

[Calgary4LIfe]

The Flames started out of the gate rather slowly, and part of the problem was the adjustment to the defensive play. There have been a number of breakdowns throughout, including against Vancouver. I lost count at how many breakaways he has stopped vs allowed, but those are never bad goals. The goal against from Hughes I don't even consider that a bad goal really - that was an elite shot. Do you want Markstrom to save that? Yes, you do. I don't think it makes it a bad goal to let in, however - that's a player having time and space to get off an elite-level shot and picking his spot. You wish the goalie would save it, but you can't fault him for when he doesn't.


I have had little to complain about Markstrom so far this season. I don't think he has let in many poor goals at all. Definitely have been a few, but not a lot. In my opinion, he is giving this team a chance to win every night.



I also like to look at goalies in terms of plus/minus in a way - how many games the goalie 'stole', vs how many they 'lost'. I think Markstrom is still on the positive side of that ledger in my mind.



I do think that Vladar needs more starts, and Markstrom should probably be getting more rest. 60/40 split is what I want to see from now on.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Teroy

No he hasn't. He gets paid 6 million; the 7th highest paid goaltender in the league. We should be raving about his play, not be satisfied with "good enough".

I mean, there is this:

Originally Posted by Bingo

Just for the sake of interesting timing ...



Dom from the Athletic has award standings at the roughly the quarter poll.



Good to see someone has numbers that match my potentially flawed eye test.

I personally think that Markstrom has been playing really well this season. I find myself "raving about his play" after most games.

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[Teroy]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Vladar has not done anything close to enough for the Flames to abandon the guy they are still investing 6M for the next 3 yrs

The only thing that is going to change is if someone is willing to pick one of them up

I doubt it. You don’t see goalie moving much even with some teams desperate for help

Seriously? He gets thrown in for the occasional game and some expect him to do what the 6 million dollar goalie can't. Give him a few games in a row and then see what he can do.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Teroy

No he hasn't. He gets paid 6 million; the 7th highest paid goaltender in the league. We should be raving about his play, not be satisfied with "good enough".

His salary is focused on too much. He makes a reasonable salary as a #1 goalie. Probably slightly overpaid because he was signed as a UFA.
There are 2 guys that make over 9M (excluding Price). You then have 14 guys that make 5-6.4M.
That's basically your going rate for an established #1.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Teroy

No he hasn't. He gets paid 6 million; the 7th highest paid goaltender in the league. We should be raving about his play, not be satisfied with "good enough".

So you're just ignoring the graphic above that has him ranked 5th in the league?

[Teroy]

Originally Posted by Bingo

So you're just ignoring the graphic above that has him ranked 5th in the league?

Yes I guess I am.

I guess that you see the teams poor result as just being the fault of the defense. I care less about his salary being the average for a #1 goalie. For that amount of money I expect more. Just like for 10 million I expect more of Huberdeau.

After all these years I want a winning team, not just an average team. I assume that makes me a poor fan in some minds. Oh well, so be it.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Teroy

Yes I guess I am.

I guess that you see the teams poor result as just being the fault of the defense. I care less about his salary being the average for a #1 goalie. For that amount of money I expect more. Just like for 10 million I expect more of Huberdeau.

After all these years I want a winning team, not just an average team. I assume that makes me a poor fan in some minds. Oh well, so be it.

Not sure I'd summarize my thoughts like that.

I'd say it's an independent analysis that has Calgary's starting goaltender top 5, and some supporting stats that suggest his save percentage has at least some degree of blame on the team in front of him.

I don't know where they split lies in blame.

But the numbers are starting to add up that it's not all on the goaltender.

If he is a top ten goaltender, you should be happy, as you're getting "more" as you requested!

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I was all over Markstrom in game stories last year, I'm certainly not a goalie apologist.

But this year it feels like he's one of if not the Flames best player game to game. The rank in shots vs rank in expected goals explains why the stats don't match that, at least to some degree.

Often.

But there remains the egregious, momentum-killing softies that have plagued him since last year.

No one is blaming the season on him, but it remains a problem.