Ownership and Management Perspective

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I agree in general. Of course, the UFAs we are talking about with those contracts are Tanev and Markstrom and, depending on timing, Coleman and Toffoli. Not the Huberdeau or Weegar extensions or Kadri.

I don’t think those deals were available for those two players either. In fact, I suspect deals like that were offered and rejected.

Well and Neal/Lucic is in that time period.

Point being I would just in general not sign those UFA deals. Taken on average you will get way more by signing young guys longterm for more than they are worth at the time of the contract.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Well and Neal/Lucic is in that time period.

Point being I would just in general not sign those UFA deals. Taken on average you will get way more by signing young guys longterm for more than they are worth at the time of the contract.

At the time of the Mangiapane/Dube extensions? Neal was done well before, but OK.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

At the time of the Mangiapane/Dube extensions? Neal was done well before, but OK.

He wasn’t because the only reason we have Lucic and his awful contract is because of Neal. A world where we never sign Neal we would never have had Lucic and we would have had an extra 5.25 million less whatever the replacement cost is for what Lucic brings to the team (say a million). Extra 4.25 million bucks signs them longterm in all likelihood.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I don’t disagree, having made some. The comparison doesn’t really work with a hard cap and the team structures anyway.

100%. Baseball also lends itself to an immense amount hard data with a game of repeated moments confined to small areas at defined parameters. A baseball is thrown a bunch of times from 60' 6" into a tiny area. Hockey is curved boards, a puck that can bounce in any direction, ice, players flying into each other etc. There is so much randomness. And yes the cap etc too.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Excusing mediocrity doesn't do you any favors, either.

And founding a web forum doesn't exactly make you "in the know", so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

I’d have to say that excusing mediocrity is pretty much how a sports fan stays sane and continues to enjoy something that only exists to be enjoyed.

Most people don’t particularly care if the Flames are great or just average. Playoffs are pretty much a bonus, they’re exciting, but a lot of people that pay to go to games are going for the experience or the long haul. Even wins are a bonus for most people.

It seems weird to take any sort of passionate position about not “accepting mediocrity” and showing the owner you mean business while continuing to watch games and frequent message boards. Angry fans are still fans, and disengaging from the product entirely is the only way to get close to sending a message, not being angry but otherwise continuing as you were.

The Flames are concerned with people losing interest, and less so in the specific tone of their interest.

[flamesgod]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Trade deadline is, for the most part, for rentals. Some teams might not believe in rentals, but this year there were a lot of guys that would be considered rentals (expiring contracts) moved, so I think it still holds true.

The draft and the off-season is when teams really shift into building for next year, so I think that’s where guys with term hold higher value for a lot of teams. Especially when it comes to playoff teams where they didn’t win but got a better idea of what’s missing to get them into the next round or whatever.

If there are no takers and the Flames still need to move on from guys like Toffoli or Backlund, then retaining salary for 2 months and shipping them to playoff teams for mid/late firsts is much easier to do a year from now.

I think guys with term just have a really limited market at the trade deadline unless you’re shopping them to teams that are already looking ahead to next year, in which case picks and prospects of value are harder to get.

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

He wasn’t because the only reason we have Lucic and his awful contract is because of Neal. A world where we never sign Neal we would never have had Lucic and we would have had an extra 5.25 million less whatever the replacement cost is for what Lucic brings to the team (say a million). Extra 4.25 million bucks signs them longterm in all likelihood.

And if we never have Lucic\Neal we probably sign Tkachuk long term instead of the bridge deal we gave him.

[SilverKast]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I’d have to say that excusing mediocrity is pretty much how a sports fan stays sane and continues to enjoy something that only exists to be enjoyed.

Most people don’t particularly care if the Flames are great or just average. Playoffs are pretty much a bonus, they’re exciting, but a lot of people that pay to go to games are going for the experience or the long haul. Even wins are a bonus for most people.

It seems weird to take any sort of passionate position about not “accepting mediocrity” and showing the owner you mean business while continuing to watch games and frequent message boards. Angry fans are still fans, and disengaging from the product entirely is the only way to get close to sending a message, not being angry but otherwise continuing as you were.

The Flames are concerned with people losing interest, and less so in the specific tone of their interest.

LOL, you sound suspiciously like the rep who sells us our seasons seats every year.

[taxbuster]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Well, I think Lewis is an example of valuing shot suppression over scoring points, for example. And I think the acquisition of other lower guys was the same - Leivo, Ryan, Nordstrom, Simon were guys who Treliving and staff for whatever reason thought had untapped potential like that.

Again, I don’t think this works in the NHL. Winning teams have high point forwards like Mackinnon, Kucherov, etc, and generally have stud goaltending (usually developed not bought).

Isn't that what you want in a PK specialist?

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by SilverKast

LOL, you sound suspiciously like the rep who sells us our seasons seats every year.

I doubt it. But reality is what it is.

Why would Flames be worried about upsetting people that show it by continuing to watch games and passionately engage with the team? It’s no better from a fan perspective than people that are just here for a good time, and no worse from the club perspective.

Apathy kills franchises. People who spend their time on here complaining are still anything but. So why should they operate any differently?

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

As a massive baseball fan I am finding these continual poor Moneyball comparisons frustrating.

I don't think anyone is saying there is a 1:1 of Moneyball to hockey.

However the realities are very much the same. An undesirable small market like Calgary can not compete with the rest of the league for prime free agent talent. As such, in order to be competitive, they need to be top of the league when it comes to drafting, scouting and developing talent. Instead the Flames are near the bottom of the league in this regard and they have a GM that goes big game hunting every summer. They throw the big bucks at second tier free agents, when they should be investing in the best hockey minds the game has to offer. Instead we have a boys club that has largely gone unchanged in eight years with no track record to show for it.

[Number 39]

I’ve often thought the Flames need to emulate the Winnipeg Jets model. Understand the lack of desirability of your market to free agents and instead focus on drafting/building from within. It’s not flashy but it’s far more likely to create a sustainable winning culture.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

100%. Baseball also lends itself to an immense amount hard data with a game of repeated moments confined to small areas at defined parameters. A baseball is thrown a bunch of times from 60' 6" into a tiny area. Hockey is curved boards, a puck that can bounce in any direction, ice, players flying into each other etc. There is so much randomness. And yes the cap etc too.

There is likely as much or more randomness in baseball than hockey. The difference between a fraction of an inch hitting the bat in the sweet spot resuts in the difference bewteen a fly fall and a HR.

There is a reason why the vast majority of teams win between 40% and 60% of all games played.

Hockey, between, this year, . 831 and .365. Although I expect those numbers to compress somewhat by the end of the season.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Excusing mediocrity doesn't do you any favors, either.

And founding a web forum doesn't exactly make you "in the know", so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

That's a dink comment.

Never have I ever claimed to know more than anyone.

Check yourself.

[sa226]

Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett.

When you look at the draft position, pedigree and what could have/should have been, that's the rebuild that you want.

Then you sprinkle in a Lindholm, Hanifin, Mangiapane, Giordano, Backlund. This SHOULD have been a perennial cup contender.

To me, the current situation all started with Bennett not becoming what you'd hope to have with a Center drafted at 4th overall. It continued with the breakdown of Monahan, and was highlighted by some poor coaching hires, inability to find a top goaltender, bad luck and desire to win at all costs.

Depending on your stance the lineup on paper is actually a pretty impressive retool in the now post Gaudreau era. But where do they go from here with an ageing severely underperforming roster? I sure don't know.

When you reflect on the past 10 years how can you not see how hard it is to win in a 32 team league, and how much is just pure luck.

All of that doesn't change how we all feel as fans today.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Number 39

I’ve often thought the Flames need to emulate the Winnipeg Jets model. Understand the lack of desirability of your market to free agents and instead focus on drafting/building from within. It’s not flashy but it’s far more likely to create a sustainable winning culture.

Jets have made the POs 4 times in 11 years since coming into the league and gotten into the 2nd round twice. And the only time they made it into the third round was 5 years ago. They will lose in round one this year, if they make it in.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

As a massive baseball fan I am finding these continual poor Moneyball comparisons frustrating.

And frankly Moneyball is no longer really en vogue in baseball. I would argue the differentiator in baseball is scouting international talent and timing/duration of second contracts. Although focusing on certain metrics like spin rates for pitchers helped certain teams find value (like Astros targeting Gerrit Cole) but now everyone does that.

There are probably some lessons to be learned there, but only to an extent. In general though, hockey is way behind other sports in their management approaches IMO. Still a whole bunch of ex players running the show on many teams.

[Enoch Root]

Sure, there is plenty of variability in baseball as well.

But the reason it lends itself to the moneyball, build through stats, approach, is that each play in baseball is an individual one-on-one event. And as a result, you can quantify value: what is a player's exit velocity? What is their launch angle? What is their error rate?

Knowing these stats facilitates roster-building. You can analyse a roster and determine that you need another left-handed bat. Or that you need a power hitter, or that a hitter with a higher average launch angle will fit in this part of the order.

Hockey is perpetual flow. And line-mates directly and significantly affect performance. As does utilization, and the coaching strategy.

There is no moneyball for hockey

Also, you show me a good goalie and I'll show you a good team.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That's a dink comment.

Never have I ever claimed to know more than anyone.

Yet you have made a "dink comment" claiming another poster knows nothing.

Originally Posted by Bingo

Bitching endlessly about things you know nothing about doesn't give you some "I hate mediocrity" badge of honor.

...

Originally Posted by Bingo

Check yourself.

Have enough self-awareness to know you're the one being checked, hombre.

[Badgers Nose]

We know too much about how the sausage gets made. Fandom is starting to feel like work.

[saillias]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

And frankly Moneyball is no longer really en vogue in baseball. I would argue the differentiator in baseball is scouting international talent and timing/duration of second contracts. Although focusing on certain metrics like spin rates for pitchers helped certain teams find value (like Astros targeting Gerrit Cole) but now everyone does that.

There are probably some lessons to be learned there, but only to an extent. In general though, hockey is way behind other sports in their management approaches IMO. Still a whole bunch of ex players running the show on many teams.

Is it no longer in vogue or is it just that everyone does it now so it's no longer an edge. it's more if you don't do it you suck? I don't follow baseball that closely but that's what it looks like to me