Strength of Schedule Update

[dino7c]

We will end up in 2nd or 3rd in the division...Flames are going to pass the Kings and Seattle

[Drunk Uncle]

Originally Posted by Goriders

What do you do when you get to the playoffs?

Lobby for everyone to get participation medals?

The Flames are losing to strong teams and weak teams. Till they start playing better charts aren’t going to save them from themselves.

C’mon man. Chart or no chart it should go without saying that you have a better chance of beating weaker teams than stronger ones.

That is all anyone is saying.

I feel like you tried to use my post to air your grievances, and while it is the time of year for Festivus, I think you’ve gone a little too Frank Costansa on this one.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Drunk Uncle

C’mon man. Chart or no chart it should go without saying that you have a better chance of beating weaker teams than stronger ones.

That is all anyone is saying.

I feel like you tried to use my post to air your grievances, and while it is the time of year for Festivus, I think you’ve gone a little too Frank Costansa on this one.

In the spirit of xmas I apologize.

[Drunk Uncle]

Originally Posted by Goriders

In the spirit of xmas I apologize.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I've argued before that the differences in strength of schedule in the NHL are very minor compared to all the other factors that are out there so I won't repeat any of that. I will just make a couple of points:

Based on opponent's winning percentage only and nothing else, Flames would gain 3 points on Seattle rest of year. I mention Seattle because they have the hardest remaining schedule of teams Flames are competing with from the division.

The SOS graphs don't take into account home/away. Flames have the easiest SOS remaining in the league but I'd argue the Coyotes have an easier remaining schedule. They have 14 more home games than road games rest of the way. Flames have 3 more road games.

Is there any quantitative analysis of road vs home? It seems like it could be added to the strength of schedule somehow.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Is there any quantitative analysis of road vs home? It seems like it could be added to the strength of schedule somehow.

I think I've done it!

(I'm sure this is similar to the sagarin models etc).

If you take every NHL team and look at the win percentage of the game they will play based on the standings today and each team's win percentage at home and on the road you get a true strength of schedule based on today's standings.

So the Flames have the easiest home schedule at .5022 (barely .500 road win percentage opposition), the easiest road schedule at .5189 (opposition home win percentage), which clearly weights to the easiest overall schedule at .5111

Next closest team is Dallas at .5171

Edmonton .5415

Hardest schedule ... Florida .5917

I'll put a graphic in a bit ...

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I've dabbled with a injury vs minutes played in the past which I think points to impact players.

But there isn't great info in man games lost on the net.

Hidden stat (proprietary)

Is the theory here that the best players play many more minutes than the rest?

Because while you'd think that might be true, I can think of a recent and relevant counter-example...

[Bingo]

Here is the graphic.

When compared to the other methodology lots of change ... just not for Calgary.

Florida has a brutal schedule.

Pick away if I've made any mistakes or bad assumptions.

[Strange Brew]

So this says that assuming an equal number of games left (52 games), Flames would gain:

3.16 points on the Oilers
1.75 points on Seattle
3.4 points on LA
4.4 points on Vancouver

Seattle's schedule got much easier when factoring in home/away like you did.

But it's about winning the games. Tonight is a four point game with Vancouver, I'd argue the result of tonight's game has more influence on playoff positioning than the SOS rest of the way.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

So this says that assuming an equal number of games left (52 games), Flames would gain:

3.16 points on the Oilers
1.75 points on Seattle
3.4 points on LA
4.4 points on Vancouver

Seattle's schedule got much easier when factoring in home/away like you did.

But it's about winning the games. Tonight is a four point game with Vancouver, I'd argue the result of tonight's game has more influence on playoff positioning than the SOS rest of the way.

I agree on direct competition for sure.

But if Vancouver isn't a playoff team the impact is just a two point game. That's the determining factor for a four pointer.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I agree on direct competition for sure.

But if Vancouver isn't a playoff team the impact is just a two point game. That's the determining factor for a four pointer.

True, but by the numbers Vancouver is right there. If they win tonight, two points back of Flames with a game in hand. I guess in that scenario neither team is in a playoff spot.

I was thinking of it another way, if you had the choice which do you pick:

A regulation loss tonight and Flames schedule rest of the way.
A regulation win but we inherit the Canucks schedule.

Assume equal number of games.

I guess I pick a loss and the Flames schedule. But it’s close. It’s a more interesting question if we were playing Edmonton.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

So this says that assuming an equal number of games left (52 games), Flames would gain:

3.16 points on the Oilers
1.75 points on Seattle
3.4 points on LA
4.4 points on Vancouver

Seattle's schedule got much easier when factoring in home/away like you did.

But it's about winning the games. Tonight is a four point game with Vancouver, I'd argue the result of tonight's game has more influence on playoff positioning than the SOS rest of the way.

How are you calculating this?

[Bingo]

Updated SOS

Flames no longer the easiest as Dallas (just ahead) and Seattle (just behind) are virtual ties.

Still have the 32nd toughest home schedule, a couple of SJ games has their road record ranked 29th

[dino7c]

5-2-3 in their last 10
.650 hockey

Easier schedule seems to be working out despite a couple hiccups
9-4-1 Vs. the West might be an even better factor considering their remaining

[Goriders]

Just the fact that they are playing better probably has the biggest influence.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Just the fact that they are playing better probably has the biggest influence.

Are they playing better, or do they just look better because they are drawing worse opponents? Posters have been pooh-poohing the San Jose games because they're not a real NHL team.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Backstop

The lotto system is brutally unfair to teams that just barely miss the playoffs. All non-playoff teams should have a shot.

Or better yet, modify the system to take into account considerations other than just where a team finishes in the standings in the current year.

[flamesgod]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Just the fact that they are playing better probably has the biggest influence.

I’d say easier opponents is definitely playing a role. How could it not?

[Strange Brew]

The SOS is tightening up. Flames no longer have easiest remaining schedule in league, that’s now Arizona.

Average points per game for remaining Flames opponents is 1.068. Compare that to Oilers whose remaining opponents average 1.086. With 46 games left, that accounts for a difference of less than a point in the standings.

[dino7c]

lucky for the Flames the Oilers aren't the only team they are chasing