New Look Flames - Thoughts on the roster ahead of camp

[Heavy Jack]

Didn’t he sign Hamrlik too?? I always loved that Hamrlik/Phaneuf pairing and thought it was too short lived unfortunately.

[Jetfire]

Sutter doesn't care how gritty you are necessarily. Do what he asks and give effort and you'll be fine with him.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bleeding Red

Not sure if it's been posted - also not sure it matters, but - Sportsnet's per-season rankings has the Flames at 26.

was the list created by Staples or by Spector?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Savvy27

I went down a little bit of a rabbit hole trying to get a sense of the Flames offensive depth at forward, because in my mind I thought that they were relatively strong, so I wanted to do a comparison. Obviously, these are stats from one season (2020-2021) and it was a weird year too, but hopefully it is of some use. I started with the Avalanche because they are one of the top teams in the league and then I picked a few Pacific division teams including the Golden Knights because they have solid F depth and the Canucks and Kings because I often see them rated in the same middle area of the division as the Flames.

Gaudreau (0.88ppg) - Lindholm (0.84) - Tkachuk (0.77) - 0.83 avg
Mangiapane (0.57) - Monahan (0.56) - Coleman (0.56) - 0.56
Lucic (0.41) - Backlund (0.59) - Dube (0.43) - 0.48
Pitlick (0.29) - Richardson (0.24) - Lewis (0.18) - 0.24
12 F average 0.53 ppg

Colorado F Depth Chart
Landeskog (0.96ppg) - Mackinnon (1.35) - Rantanen (1.2) - 1.17
Compher (0.38) - Kadri (0.57) - Burakovsky (0.83) - 0.59
Newhook (0.5 rookie) - Jost (0.31) - Nichushkin (0.38) - 0.40
Maltsev (0.27) - Helm (0.17) - O'Connor (0.28) - 0.24
12 F average 0.60ppg

Vegas F Depth Chart
Pacioretty (1.06) - Stephenson (0.69) - Stone (1.11) - 0.95
Marchessault (0.80) - Karlsson (0.70) - Smith (0.47) - 0.66
Janmark (0.33) - Patrick (0.38) - Tuch (0.60) - 0.44
Carrier (0.29) - Roy (0.30) - Dadonov (0.36) - 0.32
12 F average 0.59ppg

Vancouver F Depth Chart
Miller (0.88) - Petterson (0.81) - Boeser (0.88) - 0.86
Hoglander (0.48) - Horvat (0.70) - Garland(0.80) - 0.63
Pearson (0.35) - Dickinson (0.29) - Podkolzin (est. 0.5) - 0.38
Motte (0.38) - Sutter (0.28) - Highmore(0.19) 0.28
12F average 0.55ppg

Los Angeles F Depth Chart
Iafallo (0.55) - Kopitar (0.89) - Brown (0.63) - 0.69
Kempe (0.52) - Danault (0.45) - Vilardi (0.43) - 0.47
Moore (0.41) - Byfield (0.5 est) - Grundstrom (0.24) - 0.23
Anderson-Dolan (0.32) - Lizotte (0.24) - Wagner (0.18) - .25
12F average 0.41ppg

Rankings
Overall F scoring avg:
1. Avs 0.60
2. Knights 0.59
3. Canucks 0.55
4. Flames 0.53
5. Kings 0.41

Top line ppg avg:
1. Avs 1.17
2. Knights 0.95
3. Canucks 0.86
4. Flames 0.83
5. Kings 0.69

Top 6 ppg avg:
1. Avs 0.88
2. Knights 0.81
3. Canucks 0.75
4. Flames 0.70
5. Kings 0.58

3rd line:
1. Flames 0.48
2. Knights 0.44
3. Avs 0.40
4. Canucks 0.38
5. Kings 0.23

This exercise was pretty disheartening to be honest. While the Flames aren't actually bad like the Kings (who may be a lot better as Byfield could pop and some of their guys are really just developing), they are clearly at a level below the Avs and Golden Knights and this is without considering that those teams have elite offensive defensemen, which the Flames clearly do not.

The Flames are going to be strong defensively, so they won't need as many goals as most other teams to win, but as has been mentioned consistently they need a lot to go right. The top line has to be much better and unless Monahan has a bounce back while Coleman and Mangiapane have career seasons, their second line is still an average one.

Their third line looks relatively good, but it's a third line and that advantage is a small one in an offensive sense. Not to mention I also included Lucic when chances are that he won't even play on that line. I tried to place players in this exercise where their ppg stats suggested because I don't know the other roster situations well enough to put everyone where their coaches prefer them.

Other thoughts:
-the Avs first line is a huge advantage for them... even the Golden Knights top unit pales in comparison
-the Avs depth does look like it took a pretty good hit this off-season though, Donskoi was a good player for them and I am skeptical they have been able to replace him
-the Canucks forward group is better offensively than I thought and they will probably have a few players bounce back really well after a tough year including Petterson if he ever signs
-the Kings are weaker than I thought and I think prognostications of their impending emergence are a little early
-the Golden Knights still have excellent depth despite now having multiple big ticket players on the roster. Peyton Krebs was excluded just because there were other reasonable players to put in there, but he could be a factor for them like some of the other rookies

When did the Avs join the pacific?

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

Didn’t he sign Hamrlik too?? I always loved that Hamrlik/Phaneuf pairing and thought it was too short lived unfortunately.

Yep, and he was also rumored to be looking at Bryan Berard in 2003 out of the scratch and dent bin.

His Kings teams had Drew Doughty, and then ones who won also had Slava Voynov and Jake Muzzin. Voynov was a garbage person, but at one point was a reasonably good offensive defenseman.

So that tells me that Daryl Sutter is somewhat aware of how important it is to have the defenders moving the puck to forwards and offensive contributions from the backend. So that's why I'm a bit surprised the Flames didn't try to add someone with some offensive or puck moving acumen to supplement the loss of Giordano. They either couldn't or they think Hanifin, Valimaki, and Anderson have a lot more to give than I do.

[Savvy27]

Originally Posted by dino7c

When did the Avs join the pacific?

My reasoning was provided in the opening paragraph. The Avs have a strong forward group for the sake of comparison, the post was never stated to be about the Pacific division.

[Classic_Sniper]

Pretty much suspected a veteran laden line up based on Darryl's history. But I have to admit, I thought this was the off season that we'd see at lease one core player traded. To not see that was colossally disappointing and on top of it all, I did not expect the Flames to let their #1 minute muncher (Gio) go whilst replacing him with Nikita Zadorov.

I think this organization is going backwards in their feeble attempt to just sneak into the playoffs. The back end took a major step back, the forward group will likely have the same secondary scoring woes they've always had. Entertainment wise, the hockey could potentially be down right dreadful.

This is the most indifferent I've felt going in to a season in a long time. It just looks like a team that's going to fight to make the playoffs and likely miss again or maybe squeak into the playoffs and be annihilated by the #1 seed. My leash for this team will be extremely short this season and my SN Now account will end before the season does; so if the product is as bad as I fear it could be, I have no problem cancelling my account and dropping the interest I have in this team straight off a cliff.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Savvy27

My reasoning was provided in the opening paragraph. The Avs have a strong forward group for the sake of comparison, the post was never stated to be about the Pacific division.

Every other team was in the Pacific so it seemed odd.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Pretty much suspected a veteran laden line up based on Darryl's history. But I have to admit, I thought this was the off season that we'd see at lease one core player traded. To not see that was colossally disappointing and on top of it all, I did not expect the Flames to let their #1 minute muncher (Gio) go whilst replacing him with Nikita Zadorov.

Gio isn’t being replaced by Zadorov. He’s likely being replaced by Hanifin. You can make an argument Hanifin is being replaced by Zadorov on the second pairing.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Gio isn’t being replaced by Zadorov. He’s likely being replaced by Hanifin. You can make an argument Hanifin is being replaced by Zadorov on the second pairing.

You know, this replacement projection game has been unfulfilling

Even though the conversation out of the previous season and subsequent lineups pointed to Tanev replacing Hamonic, and Andersson being paid and then intended to replace Brodie, people see or frame it differently when it doesn’t work out

Frankly, nobody successfully replaced Brodie and doubtful anyone replaces Gio

They’ll work with what they have

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

You know, this replacement projection game has been unfulfilling

Even though the conversation out of the previous season and subsequent lineups pointed to Tanev replacing Hamonic, and Andersson being paid and then intended to replace Brodie, people see or frame it differently when it doesn’t work out

Frankly, nobody successfully replaced Brodie and doubtful anyone replaces Gio

They’ll work with what they have

True enough, I was responding, so I worked with the premise. But, yeah, you lose Gio and you say “here are the D we have available, where do they slot”, not “who is replacing Gio”. Sometimes it means you have a different look to your D entirely. While Sutter doesn’t hate skilled D, he certainly has his D playing a style that’s suited for this crew.

[CsInMyBlood]

I would not be surprised to see Backlund with Mangiapaine and Coleman to make a line that plays against the top opposition. But I'm a much bigger Backlund fan than a Monahan fan. Just makes more sense to me.

We shall see what Sutter thinks.

[transplant99]

I think many have this perception of Sutter only liking big/tough/scrappers and its just not the reality.

He likes hard to play 'make the other team work for every inch of ice they get' type of guys. Size and toughness just make that easier to accomplish. That's a good thing.

Sutter himself was far more of a skilled type player than he was a fighter/grinder type.

He knows how important puck skills are, and he tends to coach his guys into situations suited to their individual skill sets.

It's a hard way to play the game and many players don't like it, but it's both sustainable and effective for those that do.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

You know, this replacement projection game has been unfulfilling

Even though the conversation out of the previous season and subsequent lineups pointed to Tanev replacing Hamonic, and Andersson being paid and then intended to replace Brodie, people see or frame it differently when it doesn’t work out

Frankly, nobody successfully replaced Brodie and doubtful anyone replaces Gio

They’ll work with what they have

Yeah when you are dealing with an underachieving roster, you hope the people in the front office aren't focusing on the "replacement' concept.

Better served discussing what the team needs to do differently vs. replicating more of the same.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Gio isn’t being replaced by Zadorov. He’s likely being replaced by Hanifin. You can make an argument Hanifin is being replaced by Zadorov on the second pairing.

Hanifin was here last season.

Tanev-Hanfin-Gio-Andersson > Tanev-Hanifin-Andersson-Zadorov

[scobel]

Originally Posted by Savvy27

I went down a little bit of a rabbit hole trying to get a sense of the Flames offensive depth at forward, because in my mind I thought that they were relatively strong, so I wanted to do a comparison. Obviously, these are stats from one season (2020-2021) and it was a weird year too, but hopefully it is of some use. I started with the Avalanche because they are one of the top teams in the league and then I picked a few Pacific division teams including the Golden Knights because they have solid F depth and the Canucks and Kings because I often see them rated in the same middle area of the division as the Flames.

Gaudreau (0.88ppg) - Lindholm (0.84) - Tkachuk (0.77) - 0.83 avg
Mangiapane (0.57) - Monahan (0.56) - Coleman (0.56) - 0.56
Lucic (0.41) - Backlund (0.59) - Dube (0.43) - 0.48
Pitlick (0.29) - Richardson (0.24) - Lewis (0.18) - 0.24
12 F average 0.53 ppg

Colorado F Depth Chart
Landeskog (0.96ppg) - Mackinnon (1.35) - Rantanen (1.2) - 1.17
Compher (0.38) - Kadri (0.57) - Burakovsky (0.83) - 0.59
Newhook (0.5 rookie) - Jost (0.31) - Nichushkin (0.38) - 0.40
Maltsev (0.27) - Helm (0.17) - O'Connor (0.28) - 0.24
12 F average 0.60ppg

Vegas F Depth Chart
Pacioretty (1.06) - Stephenson (0.69) - Stone (1.11) - 0.95
Marchessault (0.80) - Karlsson (0.70) - Smith (0.47) - 0.66
Janmark (0.33) - Patrick (0.38) - Tuch (0.60) - 0.44
Carrier (0.29) - Roy (0.30) - Dadonov (0.36) - 0.32
12 F average 0.59ppg

Vancouver F Depth Chart
Miller (0.88) - Petterson (0.81) - Boeser (0.88) - 0.86
Hoglander (0.48) - Horvat (0.70) - Garland(0.80) - 0.63
Pearson (0.35) - Dickinson (0.29) - Podkolzin (est. 0.5) - 0.38
Motte (0.38) - Sutter (0.28) - Highmore(0.19) 0.28
12F average 0.55ppg

Los Angeles F Depth Chart
Iafallo (0.55) - Kopitar (0.89) - Brown (0.63) - 0.69
Kempe (0.52) - Danault (0.45) - Vilardi (0.43) - 0.47
Moore (0.41) - Byfield (0.5 est) - Grundstrom (0.24) - 0.23
Anderson-Dolan (0.32) - Lizotte (0.24) - Wagner (0.18) - .25
12F average 0.41ppg

Rankings
Overall F scoring avg:
1. Avs 0.60
2. Knights 0.59
3. Canucks 0.55
4. Flames 0.53
5. Kings 0.41

Top line ppg avg:
1. Avs 1.17
2. Knights 0.95
3. Canucks 0.86
4. Flames 0.83
5. Kings 0.69

Top 6 ppg avg:
1. Avs 0.88
2. Knights 0.81
3. Canucks 0.75
4. Flames 0.70
5. Kings 0.58

3rd line:
1. Flames 0.48
2. Knights 0.44
3. Avs 0.40
4. Canucks 0.38
5. Kings 0.23

This exercise was pretty disheartening to be honest. While the Flames aren't actually bad like the Kings (who may be a lot better as Byfield could pop and some of their guys are really just developing), they are clearly at a level below the Avs and Golden Knights and this is without considering that those teams have elite offensive defensemen, which the Flames clearly do not.

The Flames are going to be strong defensively, so they won't need as many goals as most other teams to win, but as has been mentioned consistently they need a lot to go right. The top line has to be much better and unless Monahan has a bounce back while Coleman and Mangiapane have career seasons, their second line is still an average one.

Their third line looks relatively good, but it's a third line and that advantage is a small one in an offensive sense. Not to mention I also included Lucic when chances are that he won't even play on that line. I tried to place players in this exercise where their ppg stats suggested because I don't know the other roster situations well enough to put everyone where their coaches prefer them.

Other thoughts:
-the Avs first line is a huge advantage for them... even the Golden Knights top unit pales in comparison
-the Avs depth does look like it took a pretty good hit this off-season though, Donskoi was a good player for them and I am skeptical they have been able to replace him
-the Canucks forward group is better offensively than I thought and they will probably have a few players bounce back really well after a tough year including Petterson if he ever signs
-the Kings are weaker than I thought and I think prognostications of their impending emergence are a little early
-the Golden Knights still have excellent depth despite now having multiple big ticket players on the roster. Peyton Krebs was excluded just because there were other reasonable players to put in there, but he could be a factor for them like some of the other rookies

I see lots of room for improvement in the top 6 and maybe that is internal.

The optimistic side of me says, Johnny is going to be back at close to a point per game, Monahan can’t get any worse, and with Coleman and Mangiapane likely to trend up (each for different reasons) we have a playoff team. Treliving is working on trades to help us get over the top to become a contender

The pessimistic side of me says blow it up as that only thing that will help us is centreman named Eichel. Treliving isn't wanting to go all in with the fear of failing, or maybe he is trying to get too cute with the trade when sometimes you just need to put your chips on the table and go for it.

Either way I tend to be more optimistic so.............. Playoffs, Cup?

[Since1984]

Based on past performance, what was added and what was removed, the Calgary Flames look like a bottom 10 team to me. I would love it for them to prove me wrong. But being in the mix for a lottery ball isn't the worst thing with Shane Wright available.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

To me those averages just tell me the difference between elite and average scoring depth is razor thin. Like 5 goals over a season. If we can prevent 5+goals more than the Avs or Vegas, the Flames will be ok.

The D scoring is most definitely a concern though.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Hanifin was here last season.

Tanev-Hanfin-Gio-Andersson > Tanev-Hanifin-Andersson-Zadorov

on paper, sure - but you have to factor in where they all are on their career curves

so I would say that it is more accurate to put it like this:

20Tanev-20Hanifin-20Gio-20Andersson > 20Tanev-20Hanifin-20Andersson-20Zadorov

however, I am not so certain that it applies when we change them all to 21. Hanifin is going to get a bigger role. It should be easy for Andersson to have a better year. Tanev will probably be in tough to be as good as last year. Gio is 38, so every year is a risk of completely falling off the table at this point. Zadorov is 26 and I think he is going to love Sutter hockey. So those things being the case, the following may well be true:

21Tanev-21Hanifin-21Andersson-21Zadorov > 20Tanev-20Hanifin-20Gio-20Andersson

because let's be honest, the 2020 defense wasn't great (other than Tanev)

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Hanifin was here last season.

Tanev-Hanfin-Gio-Andersson > Tanev-Hanifin-Andersson-Zadorov

I’m aware. We are talking roles.