The stretch run (Western Conference)

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Really? they have one more win...the Oilers were double digit points better in November. Flames are 3-1 against them. Lately they are getting outshot 2:1 or worse.

They had a better start, Flames have been better the last few months

Well yah if you ignore the bad month the flames had and include the bad month the oilers had. And no the oilers have been the better team since new years (5th best in the league).

At the end of the day a series likely goes long with either team having a chance to win. Flames may be up 3-1 in the season series but its 2 blowouts a shoot out win and a 1 goal win. Could really be anything.

Lets be honest though, the playoffs will be cancelled due to the virus after the regular season is over anyway.

[Enoch Root]

Suggesting either team has been better than the other is a reach, when they are only a couple points apart after almost 70 games.

An Oiler media guy was on the FAN this afternoon, and he mentioned that the Oilers have been outshot 239 - 156 in their last 6 games. Yet managed to go 4-1-1

In their last 2 games, they were outshot 94 - 48 and came away with 3 points.

I don't think it's time to anoint them with anything just yet.

Possible playoff opponents:
STL
COL
DAL
VGS
EDM

One of these teams is not like the others.

[Duffalufagus]

I agree that not much separates the flames and oilers (other than they have 2 of the best 5 players in the league) but let’s not pretend they haven’t been better than us this season. We’ve won so many games in OT and shootout this year. Those don’t really count when assessing going into the playoffs. That is shinny. The playoffs is an OT war of attrition.

Any objective assessment of our play suggests we are the worst of the playoff teams.

I’m still cheering for the team though, before people pile on. I’m just not blue skying ####.

[FanIn80]

Updated.

[djsFlames]

If you're looking for the silver lining in a BOA, the Oilers are actually a fairly poor team outside of the man advantage.

They're 17th in even strength goals for and 25th in ES goals against.

The 1st ranked PP is what has ballooned them into playoff territory.

So literally just stay out of the box and your chances are good as they are non-playoff caliber in that situation.

[FanIn80]

I don't really like our chances of "staying out of the box" against the Coilers.

1. Bennett
2. NHL Refs
3. McDavid
4. Bennett
5. Bennett

[djsFlames]

But it will be playoff Bennett, not regular season Bennett.

There's a difference.

[Tsawwassen]

After Tuesday's games
fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be wild from here on in!

Predators won in regulation
Canucks won in the shootout
Stars lost in regulation


1. St. Louis (70--41-19-10) 32 RW, 92 pts--1st in the Western Conference and Central Division and 3rd overall
2. Colorado (69--41-20-8) 37 RW, 90 pts--second in the Central Division
3. Las Vegas (71--39-24-8) 30 RW, 86 pts--first in the Pacific Division
4. Edmonton (70--37-24-9) 31 RW, 83 pts--second in the Pacific Division
5. Dallas (68--37-23-8) 26 RW, 82 pts--third in the Central Division
6. Calgary (70--36-27-7) 25 RW, 79 pts--third in the Pacific Division
7. Nashville (69--35-26-8) 28 RW, 78 pts--fourth in the Central Division
8. Vancouver (69--36-27-6) 27 RW, 78 pts--fourth in the Pacific Division
__________________________________________________

Winnipeg (70--36-28-6) 29 RW, 78 pts--fifth in the Central Division
Minnesota (69--35-27-7) 30 RW, 77 pts--sixth in the Central Division
Arizona (70--33-29-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--fifth in the Pacific Division
Chicago (69--31-30-8) 22 RW, 70 pts--seventh in the Central Division


The number of games played are first and in bold.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

If you're looking for the silver lining in a BOA, the Oilers are actually a fairly poor team outside of the man advantage.

They're 17th in even strength goals for and 25th in ES goals against.

The 1st ranked PP is what has ballooned them into playoff territory.

So literally just stay out of the box and your chances are good as they are non-playoff caliber in that situation.

Not great for the Flames though as there are the tenth most penalized team in the NHL this year. The penalty calling changes a bit in the playoffs so who knows what could happen.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Updated.

Why is Minny listed above Calgary when Calgary has the better winning percentage and more points?


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[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Why is Minny listed above Calgary when Calgary has the better winning percentage and more points?


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Because Fanin80 is ranking teams on the basis of total possible points, not points-pace.

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[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Because Fanin80 is ranking teams on the basis of total possible points, not points-pace.

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Also the Flames lose almost all the tiebreakers so they have to finish with more points than pretty well all the teams in the race to place above them as being tied will slot them below. The reality is that the Flames have very little margin for error because they have less regulation wins than all the other teams.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Also the Flames lose almost all the tiebreakers so they have to finish with more points than pretty well all the teams in the race to place above them as being tied will slot them below. The reality is that the Flames have very little margin for error because they have less regulation wins than all the other teams.

It seems to me highly unlikely that every team in the mix is going to pass the Flames on the strength of tie-breakers. The reality is that all of them have very little margin for error.

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[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

It seems to me highly unlikely that every team in the mix is going to pass the Flames on the strength of tie-breakers. The reality is that all of them have very little margin for error.

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The Flames are one point away from being 10th right now. There are three teams a point behind the Flames all tied with 78 points. Ending the season tied with a team or two is a fairly likely scenario based on how close teams are right now.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

The Flames are one point away from being 10th right now. There are three teams a point behind the Flames all tied with 78 points. Ending the season tied with a team or two is a fairly likely scenario based on how close teams are right now.

Yes. Like I said: it's the same situation faced by every one of the same teams in the mix. Things are not somehow especially more dire for Calgary than they are for Minnesota, Nashville, Vancouver, etc.

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[Ruttiger]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

But it will be playoff Bennett, not regular season Bennett.

There's a difference.

Ah yes - the Shangri-La of Bennetts.

[FanIn80]

A quick note about my chart: Not losing a game is more important that winning a game. I know that sounds stupid, but losing games is the only thing that eliminates a team from making the playoffs. Winning is obviously the goal of every game, but it's really only because it means you didn't lose the game.

Think about it from the start of a season. Everyone starts at 0pts right? Sure, except not really. They all actually start at 164 "possible points (ppts)" and every time they lose a game, they lose either 2ppts or 1ppt depending on how they lost. Calgary started at 164ppts, but they lost 27 games in regulation (2ppt losses) and another 7 in OT or shootouts (1ppt losses), so now they're sitting at 103ppts... meaning that no matter what happens for the rest of the season, 103pts is the absolute best they can do.

Why is that important? Because that's how teams becomes "mathematically eliminated" from making the playoffs (otherwise known as "officially eliminated"). When it is no longer possible for a team to gain enough points to catch they last WC spot.

Using this knowledge, it becomes clear "winning" a game is really only important from a mathematical standpoint in the sense that it's the best possible way to "not lose" a game.

Consider:
- Losing a game in regulation is worth -2ppts
- Losing a game in OT or a shootout is worth -1ppts
- Winning a game in any possible fashion is worth 0ppts

Of course there are complications in the way of tiebreakers, but those are tracked in the more conventional method.

This also sheds light on why some games are more important than others:

- A cross-conference game (East vs West) is just about trying not to lose ppts
- An inter-conference game (divisional or otherwise) is about trying to make someone in your conference or division lose ppts. Remember, it doesn't matter how you win the game because all wins are worth 0ppts no mater how they happen, but winning in regulation gives your opponent -2ppts vs winning in OT/SO (-1ppts).

So... having said all that, here are some interesting notes about Calgary's final 12 games:

- Three games are against teams we are chasing for a playoff spot (VAN, VGK, EDM). These are the most important games, as they are the only ones that allow us to remove points against teams ahead of us in the playoff race. These are literally the only remaining chances we have this season to impact teams we're chasing as a direct result of something we do.

- Two games are against a team that is behind us in the playoff race (WPG). These two games are the next important, as removing ppts from WPG makes it harder for them to catch us.

- Two games are against teams in our conference who are (currently) out of the playoff race. These games are important to us because taking ppts away from them makes it harder for them to enter the race. These game are most important to teams behind us the race though, as it really helps them more than us.

- Five of our games are against Eastern teams. These games are the base-level of importance, in that every single game we play has an inherent value in not losing ppts.

As mentioned in earlier posts, we also lose the first 2-3 tiebreakers against every other team currently in the Western playoff race, which just puts even more pressure on the baseline value of not losing any more ppts this season.

[dino7c]

Win 7 games and you make it

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

The Flames are one point away from being 10th right now. There are three teams a point behind the Flames all tied with 78 points. Ending the season tied with a team or two is a fairly likely scenario based on how close teams are right now.

I think this is a little simplistic, as it suggests one team getting one point puts us out, when we are actually 3 x 1 point from being 10th, and one of those teams MUST be Vancouver.
Meaning, 1st Vancouver has to get one point, then both Nashville and Winnipeg must get one point.
And once Winnipeg gets their one point, we must also lose, due to games played...

Certainly possible, but as many others have said, every team is precarious right now.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

It seems to me highly unlikely that every team in the mix is going to pass the Flames on the strength of tie-breakers. The reality is that all of them have very little margin for error.

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It might seem highly unlikely, but in reality, it’s a virtual certainty.


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