[Rumour] UPD: Canes will try to trade Adam Fox after he indicates he will not sign with them

[CSharp]

Originally Posted by fotiou22

There's no upside to being thought of in the league as a GM who fleeces other GMs.

I totally agree with this. Sure, it feels good to have gotten a super great deal. But over time, if the GM is known as a fleecer, it may affect future dealings. Other GM's might try to avoid dealing with the Flames if they feel they might get fleeced in other deals. I really think that's what happened to Darryl Sutter.

It's really too bad that Hamilton and Ferland might not work out with the signings. But if it works out, it will be a fair deal IMO. As for Fox, sounds like he's gonna be another one of those prospects that thinks too highly of himself. Let him go to New York where he'll end his career there. Hope the lights will inspire him there.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by CSharp

I totally agree with this. Sure, it feels good to have gotten a super great deal. But over time, if the GM is known as a fleecer, it may affect future dealings. Other GM's might try to avoid dealing with the Flames if they feel they might get fleeced in other deals. I really think that's what happened to Darryl Sutter.

Is there any evidence that this is true at all?
I would have to think GMs are all confident in their ability to make good deals. So even if they observe another GM losing a trade, they are going to think that they are "smart enough that it can't happen to me".
I just can't think of a single example of a good GM not being able to make trades.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by CSharp

As for Fox, sounds like he's gonna be another one of those prospects that thinks too highly of himself. Let him go to New York where he'll end his career there. Hope the lights will inspire him there.

Just because a player wants to choose where he wants to play (because he can) doesn't necessarily mean he thinks too highly of himself.

The vast majority of employees get to exercise the same right.

many college players leave college after year 3 so that they can sign their ELC early and effectively only have to play 2 years before they can cash in with their 2nd contract. Johnny did such a thing, as many others have too. it's really the only incentive teams have to convince players to forgo their 4th year. If Calgary (like most other teams) did not agree to having those players sign those contracts right at the end of their college year, I expect most would have gone back to college and become free agents.

[FlamesAddiction]

I don’t consider it a fleecing really. It’s not like Treliving sold them some lemons. Everything Carolina received came and performed as advertised. The problem is on their side. It doesn’t seem like they realized what they were giving up. They essentially fleeced themselves.

[Split98]

There was a kid I always traded Pogs/Pokemon/McDonalds NHL cards with, and he was the great dealer of the schoolyard. I definitely didn't avoid him, as he always seemed to know the best value for every trade. I remember a few fleecings (usually when the kid celebrates as soon as the deal is finalized) but always went back for another deal as he had the cards I wanted and would facilitate trades I was happy with.

I don't think Treliving winning that trade in the long-run would signal to any other GM anything but 'that guy knows his stuff'. Any GM that worries about being outsmarted in a trade should step back from the phones immediately. You more worry about someone who's going to package an injured player, make a deal with the player on the sly or fill your ear with over-valuations and nonsense.

[bubbsy]

I hate when prospects do this. I personally think the league should add a year to team control on unsigned prospects from the ncaa. I realize folks often argue that chl, etc, league prospects have the same option, but i just don't believe it is an apple to apple comparison.

Hoping he flops wherever he lands.

[lazypucker]

Did Fox say he won't sign with Carolina whatsoever? Or did he just say he is not ready to sign yet?

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by lazypucker

Did Fox say he won't sign with Carolina whatsoever? Or did he just say he is not ready to sign yet?

The Canes say they haven't been informed of any decision by Fox.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Funny how many people around here dismissed concerns about Fox (and other drafted college players) not signing with the Flames. We were told it almost never happens.

Well, it happens. There's a legit risk in drafting players - especially American-born players - who go the college route. Management needs to take this risk into account when drafting, same way they have to take the Russian factor into account.

I am not disagreeing with you, but the implication here seems to be that the Flames should somehow have made a different decision at the draft given higher risk surrounding their ability to sign Fox. If anything, I think the Flames handled the 2016 draft, this pick and the player about as well as anyone could expect. Let's not forget that Fox was the FOURTH player selected by the Flames that year, and arguably could top-out as the third-best among them. Should they have selected a different player? I don't think so. He was the 66th player picked at the draft, and became a key piece in perhaps one of the most consequential trades in Flames history. The Flames got maximum value from a defenseman that was not likely to ever play for the Flames in part because of their depth on the blue line as well as because of the risk in signing him. As good a prospect as Fox is his value will never be as high again until he plays actual games in the NHL. The Flames used that massively inflated value to their advantage and are a much better team for it today as a result.

So yes, the risk of drafting US-born NCAA prospective players is higher for Canadian teams, but this risk is substantially mitigated by overall good drafting and development. Spending a third-round pick on a high-risk player is the right thing to do, which is precisely what the Flames did. In short, Treliving's handling of Fox was a Master Class in asset management.

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Just because a player wants to choose where he wants to play (because he can) doesn't necessarily mean he thinks too highly of himself.

The vast majority of employees get to exercise the same right.

many college players leave college after year 3 so that they can sign their ELC early and effectively only have to play 2 years before they can cash in with their 2nd contract. Johnny did such a thing, as many others have too. it's really the only incentive teams have to convince players to forgo their 4th year. If Calgary (like most other teams) did not agree to having those players sign those contracts right at the end of their college year, I expect most would have gone back to college and become free agents.

I hate when people say "X player is full of himself because he doesn't bend over for the team". I believe that you can never blame a player for looking out for his own interests because you better believe the team is looking out for theirs. If he signs a deal, and trades him away, is it his fault or the team's?

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

This typically only happens in late round picks that drastically increase their value after their draft. Vesey was a 3rd rounder as was Fox. Hayes was a 1st rounder and maybe the Hawks could have signed him if they made the effort earlier.

Most 1st rounders will sign with their team because they only play 1 year old college max and are unlikely to wait out the 4 years.

Flames are fortunate that Jankowski signed when he could have walked and obviously happy they got Johnny to leave early

I wonder if Fox fell in that draft because no one knew if he'd sign. He was the top d-scorer in the US program by a mile in his draft year and was drafted after guys who he doubled in points (and these guys were about the same size as him).

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I am not disagreeing with you, but the implication here seems to be that the Flames should somehow have made a different decision at the draft given higher risk surrounding their ability to sign Fox. If anything, I think the Flames handled the 2016 draft, this pick and the player about as well as anyone could expect. Let's not forget that Fox was the FOURTH player selected by the Flames that year, and arguably could top-out as the third-best among them. Should they have selected a different player? I don't think so. He was the 66th player picked at the draft, and became a key piece in perhaps one of the most consequential trades in Flames history. The Flames got maximum value from a defenseman that was not likely to ever play for the Flames in part because of their depth on the blue line as well as because of the risk in signing him. As good a prospect as Fox is his value will never be as high again until he plays actual games in the NHL. The Flames used that massively inflated value to their advantage and are a much better team for it today as a result.

So yes, the risk of drafting US-born NCAA prospective players is higher for Canadian teams, but this risk is substantially mitigated by overall good drafting and development. Spending a third-round pick on a high-risk player is the right thing to do, which is precisely what the Flames did. In short, Treliving's handling of Fox was a Master Class in asset management.

Doubt he can pass Tkachuk, but he'll be right there with Dube. Guy is an ELITE scoring defenseman.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I wonder if Fox fell in that draft because no one knew if he'd sign. He was the top d-scorer in the US program by a mile in his draft year and was drafted after guys who he doubled in points (and these guys were about the same size as him).

That could be, but I recall the concerns about Fox in his draft year were the same as those surrounding his NHL future: he is not especially big, and also does not skate particularly well.

We do see a real influx of smaller defensemen with excellent vision and puck-moving ability in the NHL, but the one thing these players all seem to have in common is their superior skating ability. Fox does not have that, and as a 5'10" 185 lbs defenseman he very realistically could struggle in a League that sets a premium on skating.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Doubt he can pass Tkachuk, but he'll be right there with Dube. Guy is an ELITE scoring defenseman.

Dube has already played NHL games, scored points in the NHL and is leading all AHL rookies in points/GP in the second-best League in the world. Dube is presently tracking to be a better NHL player than Adam Fox. No one should be surprised if this never changes.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Dube has already played NHL games, scored points in the NHL and is leading all AHL rookies in points/GP in the second-best League in the world. Dube is presently tracking to be a better NHL player than Adam Fox. No one will be surprised if this never changes.

Not worth a huge debate - Fox outscored Cale Makar and other guys who are considered elite prospects.

Both are good prospects and it could go either way. If Fox was still Flames property, he vs Dube would be a close vote in our prospect poll.

[The Boy Wonder]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

I hate when people say "X player is full of himself because he doesn't bend over for the team". I believe that you can never blame a player for looking out for his own interests because you better believe the team is looking out for theirs. If he signs a deal, and trades him away, is it his fault or the team's?

I agree.

Very hard to fault a guy for wanting to finish a Harvard degree. Even if he gets 3 years of NHL hockey (the average career length for a pro.) he'd be on ELC and would earn ~2.75mil. That is life changing money but not to the point that you never have to work again. I'd sure as hell push that earning off for a year if I knew I could give myself the safety net of a harvard degree which has its own benefits and likely sets him up to earn ~200K average per year for the rest of his adult life.

And to get to pick which NHL team offers you the best chance to get playing time and establish yourself as a pro? Kinda a no-brainer.

[Samuelsson]

My issue with the narrative that Treliving might be known as a 'fleecer' is that, firstly it's bull, and secondly, would those who subscribe to that narrative rather Treliving had been completely honest in the scenario, spelling out that his best guess would be that Fox and the buzz around him at the time indicated that he'll probably want to hit free agency and end up at the Rangers, and asked for ONE of Hanifin or Lindholm, and a lesser player, instead of both? If that had happened, those people would be calling for Tre's head.

A GM's job is to get the best deals for his team. Besides, it wasn't known at the time what Fox's intentions were. It was speculation. There were still, what, 2 years left until FA? I'd classify a 'fleecing' as a GM that hides an injury of a prospectively traded player, or other such skulduggery. And I'm not even sure if that would be legal, or if there wouldn't be repercussions. That would be when a GM would be considered persona non grata; not when a GM simply comes out on top.

There were far too many variables at hand to indicate the outcome of this trade at the time, and as we know, hindsight is a wonderful thing. Who knew that Ferland wouldn't re-sign? Who knew that Lindholm and (clarification needed) Hanifin would have career years this year? They were both upcoming free agents, with stellar-but-not-outrageous numbers.

Who was the GM for the Islanders that traded Larsson for Hall? Has he been run out of the league, never to work again? Or is it more likely that people think that Chia is the most stupid person in hockey?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Not worth a huge debate - Fox outscored Cale Makar and other guys who are considered elite prospects.

Both are good prospects and it could go either way. If Fox was still Flames property, he vs Dube would be a close vote in our prospect poll.

Cale Makar plays in the top Division in the NCAA—the same Division where Gaudreau spent his college career. Fox plays in the ECAC, which is probably the worst of the four. His production iOS impressive, but it remains a HUGE question as to whether it will translate smoothly to the next level.

I don't know how the rest of CP will vote, but in the last ranking Adam Fox was behind all three of the Flames's top defensemen, and was only two places ahead of Dube in his draft year. Last year Dube was the number-three ranked prospect in the annual poll, and placed ahead of Parson, Kylington and Gillies—all of whom ranked ahead of Fox the last time they were ranked.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Samuelsson

...Who was the GM for the Islanders that traded Larsson for Hall? Has he been run out of the league, never to work again?...

Ray Shilbury?

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I am not disagreeing with you, but the implication here seems to be that the Flames should somehow have made a different decision at the draft given higher risk surrounding their ability to sign Fox. If anything, I think the Flames handled the 2016 draft, this pick and the player about as well as anyone could expect.

Sure. I'm not saying never draft a college-bound American. But the flight risk has to be figured into the equation, the same as it is for Russian players. And once you do draft them, and they play well, be honest with yourself about the possibility of them going back into the draft.