Ongoing - Elliott Friedman's 30 Thoughts (Wednesdays)

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Who cares. If people here want to talk about it then they're free to do so. You let others regulation your discussions?

Simmer down there fella. I don't need you to try and paraphrase my posts and distort their meaning. Suggest you worry more about what you want to say.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I think you have to factor in that Edmonton is not a place where he wanted to be. He's accepted it for sure but it's a little different to compare a player in Pittsburgh, Washington, Chicago vs Calgary, Edmonton, or Winnipeg. Most elite players would prefer to play in an American market or Toronto and that's the sad truth. Gaudreau certainly didn't discount his services to the Flames but I bet he would have accepted less if he was Bruin and close to home. There is really no reason for McDavid to offer the Oilers any discount for his services seeing if he had a choice in the matter he wouldn't be there in the first place.

I don't see him taking a discount. But there is a lot of room for him to be the highest AAV player without him demanding max cap hit.

I would think $14 is unlikely. We will see.

[northcrunk]

There is going to be a lot of pressure coming from the NHLPA for him to not take a discount and instead try and set the bar a little higher for other players.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Max salary right now is 14.6, and that'll rise again next summer by the time McDavid signs his new deal. So we're looking at much closer to 15m a max then 14.

Even if Connor takes less then max we're still looking at what, 12-13m/year?

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Insufficient Funds

I agree that he's going to command the highest AAV we've yet seen but I don't know where you're getting this billion dollar valuation from. To say he alone is worth 1/3 of the league's revenue is far fetched at best. 14 million? Maybe but I think around 12 million will be where it lands.

He will be paid many monies. Flames fans will be content that this has created new challenges for the Coil. Coiler fans will be happy to have one of the best players in the game.

Hey, some oiler fans posted a humblebrag in the ONG thread I think where un named NHL execs figured that McDavid was a billion dollar windfall for the Oilers organization.

[Insufficient Funds]

Originally Posted by northcrunk

There is going to be a lot of pressure coming from the NHLPA for him to not take a discount and instead try and set the bar a little higher for other players.

I don't understand this line of thinking.

Salaries are a direct result of league revenue. There is a maximum upset for salaries to be drawn from. All it's going to do push out more players like Glencross and make teams rely on kids on ELC's to fill their lineup even more than they already do. Increasing the "bar" doesn't make league revenue increase. The PA should be trying to market their players more in order to help grow the business for everyone so that player salaries can increase. No?

[Insufficient Funds]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Hey, some oiler fans posted a humblebrag in the ONG thread I think where un named NHL execs figured that McDavid was a billion dollar windfall for the Oilers organization.

Is that over the course of a 20 year career? Nevermind, if it came from those losers it's obviously BS.

[northcrunk]

Originally Posted by Insufficient Funds

I don't understand this line of thinking.

Salaries are a direct result of league revenue. There is a maximum upset for salaries to be drawn from. All it's going to do push out more players like Glencross and make teams rely on kids on ELC's to fill their lineup even more than they already do. Increasing the "bar" doesn't make league revenue increase. The PA should be trying to market their players more in order to help grow the business for everyone so that player salaries can increase. No?

It's the same reason Babcock signed for so much money in Toronto. Setting the bar higher for other coaches. The players are always going to push for more money and they are part of a union. The union wants more revenue so higher salaries = more dues. With expansion players like Glencross will probably find a home anyway but the league is changing. With players not playing as long they will want to be compensated more in the short time they have in the league. The players are still pissed off from the last lockout and it looks like there might be another. They are going to do what is best for the players just like the owners are going to do what is best for the owners.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Max salary right now is 14.6, and that'll rise again next summer by the time McDavid signs his new deal. So we're looking at much closer to 15m a max then 14.

Even if Connor takes less then max we're still looking at what, 12-13m/year?

I wouldn't be surprised by something with a 12.

Maybe he goes half.million above Kane. Maybe the same.
Kane has serious hardware.

It seems more and more likely that Crosby will take all of the trophies this year based on scoring pace.

You've got other art Ross winners in Kane and Benn at a certain salary level. I'm sceptical McDavid will demand well over the top. Especially if he doesn't win a major award.

[Insufficient Funds]

Originally Posted by northcrunk

It's the same reason Babcock signed for so much money in Toronto. Setting the bar higher for other coaches. The players are always going to push for more money and they are part of a union. The union wants more revenue so higher salaries = more dues. With expansion players like Glencross will probably find a home anyway but the league is changing. With players not playing as long they will want to be compensated more in the short time they have in the league. The players are still pissed off from the last lockout and it looks like there might be another. They are going to do what is best for the players just like the owners are going to do what is best for the owners.

I don't think its the same at all. There's no direct correlation between players salaries and coaches. Coaches can be paid anything the team wants to pay them. There is no ceiling outside of internal team budgets.

I understand what you're saying in regards to the Union and compensation. They're only doing whats best for the few players at the top, while making harder for the players in the middle and at the bottom. The fact remains though that these numbers are controlled by the size of the pot and I don't think that it's likely to change.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I wouldn't be surprised by something with a 12.

Maybe he goes half.million above Kane. Maybe the same.
Kane has serious hardware.

It seems more and more likely that Crosby will take all of the trophies this year based on scoring pace.

You've got other art Ross winners in Kane and Benn at a certain salary level. I'm sceptical McDavid will demand well over the top. Especially if he doesn't win a major award.

McDavid's contract isn't up until next summer anyways so they've still got a year, so yeah at this talk is probably premature but still another season for McDavid to win some trophies. Though talks can start this July.

Kane has serious hardware but for the first three years of his eight year deal did sign for the (then) max of 13.8m. The contract dips to 10.5 average due to the contact gradually dropping until it's 6.9m in the final two years when he's 33 and 34.

What the max salary is July 2018 is anyones guess but it'll be roughly a million more then when Kane signed and McDavid's contract isn't going to drop the way Kane's did to bring that cap hit lower.

Though all UFA years vs RFA years could also factor in the Oilers favour. Lots of moving parts. As an outsider it's fun to watch.

[getbak]

You'd think if any players had been motivated to take a little bit less to help keep a winner together, it would have been Kane and Toews, but they both signed contracts that paid them the maximum allowed at the time.

They both signed in July 2014, when the Cap was $69 million. The maximum single-season salary allowed was 20% of that, or $13.8 million, which is exactly how much they're being paid for the first three years of their contracts. Their cap hits are slightly lower because their annual salaries go down in the later years of the contracts, after they're over 30.

That's an issue that the Oilers will have to deal with. Even if McDavid signs for the maximum allowed term, he still won't have seen his 30th birthday when his next contract expires. There should be no anticipated decline in performance during the entire term of his next contract.

Players coming off their ELCs will often sign escalating contracts because the expectation is that their play will improve as they gain experience, but it's tough to make that argument when he's already fighting for the Art Ross in his second pro season.

[Macho0978]

In the end the only real concern that the Oilers have with Mcdavid is if he asks for close to the max and if it is shorter term (5 years) and he eventually leaves after that contract is up. He more than likely will be worth the contract

The Drasaitl contract is a bigger concern to me for the Oilers. Drasaitl has 18 of his 47 points on the PP. Most his PP time has come on the same unit as Mcdavid. 5 on 5 Drasaitl's top 2 linemates by a lot are Mcdavid and Maroon. Mcdavid, Maroon, Puljuravi are his only plus linemates in GF/60 vs GA/60. Every other forward is minus except Nuge who is even. But despite what looks like a player who clearly is getting carried by Mcdavid is getting a reputation as being an elite player. If he gets 7+ I could see Nuge getting moved and I think the only reason why Drasaitl got put with Mcdavid in the beginning was Nuge and Mcdavid can't win a face off if their life depended on it and McLellan wanted someone on Mcdavid's line to win a face off and then they stayed together because they clicked. In the end I imagine the Oilers still want Drasaitl as a center rather than a winger and there is not a lot that he has done away from Mcdavid that suggests he is a 7 million dollar player

Already having Lucic, Eberle, Nuge, Pouliot and Sekera who are clearly over paid they can't afford to be over paying Drasaitl as well (even if he still a good player) and then giving Mcdavid 12+

The Flames have felt this effect already when trying to keep Johnny and Mony when you have guys like Wideman, Stajan, Bouma. The advantage the Flames have though is these contracts are done or 1 year left so moving forward even without a guy like Mcdavid I still see a huge advantage with the Cap situation

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I wouldn't be surprised by something with a 12.

Maybe he goes half.million above Kane. Maybe the same.
Kane has serious hardware.

It seems more and more likely that Crosby will take all of the trophies this year based on scoring pace.

You've got other art Ross winners in Kane and Benn at a certain salary level. I'm sceptical McDavid will demand well over the top. Especially if he doesn't win a major award.

Bahaha awards won't have any bearing in this negotiation. Not to say they don't factor into others, but whether some stupid journalists out east stay up late enough to watch him play won't have any impact on this contract.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Insufficient Funds

I don't understand this line of thinking.

Salaries are a direct result of league revenue. There is a maximum upset for salaries to be drawn from. All it's going to do push out more players like Glencross and make teams rely on kids on ELC's to fill their lineup even more than they already do. Increasing the "bar" doesn't make league revenue increase. The PA should be trying to market their players more in order to help grow the business for everyone so that player salaries can increase. No?

The PA is already known to be campaigning for the elimination of escrow in the next CBA. That would mean that teams can spend more than 50 percent of HRR on player salaries. At that point it is no longer a fixed pool to be shared among the players, and each individual player will want the biggest contract he can get.

I don't think the PA has a chance in hell of winning that battle, but it's clearly what they are gearing up to fight. Part of that is pushing their stars to demand the biggest contracts possible.

[Major Major]

I love how when it comes to comparing mcdavid in terms of hockey skills, he is the best player since Gretzky, but when negotiating his contract, he is at the Kane/Benn level. As in, a top 5 player in the league. Don't get me wrong, I actually a agree that that is where he tops out, just find it funny that the oilers hype machine along with Sportsnet love affair is what is going to push this guy over the 14 mil threshold.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Major Major

I love how when it comes to comparing mcdavid in terms of hockey skills, he is the best player since Gretzky, but when negotiating his contract, he is at the Kane/Benn level. As in, a top 5 player in the league. Don't get me wrong, I actually a agree that that is where he tops out, just find it funny that the oilers hype machine along with Sportsnet love affair is what is going to push this guy over the 14 mil threshold.

While I'm not sure if he will be a better overall player I think he will end up a more prolific scorer than Crosby. Like Crosby he seems to have a hard work ethic so I think the sky is the limit as his acceleration is second to none as I don't recall a player since Bure that gets as many breakaways and scoring chances off the rush. Barring injury he's probably going to own the Art Ross trophy for a long time.

[manwiches]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/3...oms-canadiens/

Flames notes:

15. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of interest comes GM Tim Murray’s way for Dmitry Kulikov. The defenceman has had a nightmare year since suffering a back injury when pushed into an open bench door during the pre-season.

“I’ve never been through anything like this,” Kulikov said last weekend. “But I really don’t want to talk much about it.” Are you healthy now? “Yes,” he answered, although coach Dan Bylsma says Kulikov won’t practice every day. He’s also a free agent, but teams don’t really have a handle on where his game is.

Not explicitly Flames' news, but the rumour that the Flames might be interested in Kulikov is at a minimum interesting. Anything to bump Wideman down to a 5/6 for the rest of the year. Would be interesting to see what we would give up for him though, seeing as he's an RFA at the end of the year. Outside of the top 3, not sure you want to protect him too though.


League Notes:

16. Another UFA to watch is Tampa Bay’s Brian Boyle. You can see why playoff teams would be interested. Edmonton’s Peter Chiarelli went to see him in Minnesota last Friday. Columbus and Toronto are believed to be among other potential suitors. (The Maple Leafs tried to sign him as a free agent in 2014, although it was a different regime.)

Some tweeters were surprised I said during a radio interview he may fetch a first-rounder in return. It comes down to how much of a demand there is, but teams are not married to those picks in 2017. If one executive ever hears me getting wishy-washy on the topic, he texts a reminder: “How many times do I have to tell you that teams are going to trade their firsts? This draft is terrible!” I hope someone does so he stops yelling at me.

This would be crazy if Boyle was traded for a first. But the upcoming draft is not great, so I guess it wouldn't be as crazy of a deal.

21. One year ago, NHL GMs considered changing the offside rule, making it so that “breaking the plane” above the blue line was the deciding factor — like with an NFL touchdown — as opposed to getting your skate down on the ice. They decided to wait and see how this year went. There’s momentum to go ahead, make the change at next month’s meetings, feeling the number of reviews could drop by half if the rule is amended. Anything that speeds up the process and adds goals is a win

For some reason, this one is hard to wrap around my head, but maybe because I have it beaten in me from minor/junior hockey for how offsides works. That being said, I agree, and am all for increased scoring and less stoppages

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Paul Gaustad was traded at a deadline for a 1st and Boyle is probably more impactful than Gaustad was.

[Knut]

Agreed Boyle would be a great deadline pickup for any team. I hope Edmonton does not get him.