The US Election Polling / Data Thread

[Flash Walken]

What is most interesting to me is Missouri being in play due to ill timed backlash against years of conservative economic policies.

This may be the first sign that state level politics are beginning to break down for the GOP. after putting all their eggs in that basket, losing Senate controller and a couple of governor positions could be disastrous for the party, more so than Trump.

Missouri is a canary in a coal mine for 'values voters'.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

What is most interesting to me is Missouri being in play due to ill timed backlash against years of conservative economic policies.

This may be the first sign that state level politics are beginning to break down for the GOP. after putting all their eggs in that basket, losing Senate controller and a couple of governor positions could be disastrous for the party, more so than Trump.

Missouri is a canary in a coal mine for 'values voters'.

At the state level, North Carolina seems really interesting this time around. In addition to being a swing state, there's a very competitive governor race that seems to be tilting toward the Democrat in recent polling. But it's also a state that favours the Republicans as one of the most gerrymandered states in the country. If the Democrats can gain control of the governorship and then retain it in 2020 (when redistricting occurs), that could produce a significant swing in the house.
There are a lot of other gubernatorial elections in 2018 in traditionally blue states with Republican governors, too. Combine that with a more liberal supreme court that is more likely to clamp down on gerrymandering and voter supression, plus continued demographic changes, and the Democrats could be set up to dominate the house for a while after 2020.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Trump just tweeted out a poll performed by one of the worst rated pollsters there is, that still shows him losing, and receiving the lowest % a major party candidate has ever received. Just to give you an idea of how much things are falling apart in Trumpland.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I assume you mean Zogby?

I'm actually surprised Zogby is still in the field--I thought maybe he had retired in disgrace.....

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...strikes-again/

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by octothorp

At the state level, North Carolina seems really interesting this time around. In addition to being a swing state, there's a very competitive governor race that seems to be tilting toward the Democrat in recent polling. But it's also a state that favours the Republicans as one of the most gerrymandered states in the country. If the Democrats can gain control of the governorship and then retain it in 2020 (when redistricting occurs), that could produce a significant swing in the house.
There are a lot of other gubernatorial elections in 2018 in traditionally blue states with Republican governors, too. Combine that with a more liberal supreme court that is more likely to clamp down on gerrymandering and voter supression, plus continued demographic changes, and the Democrats could be set up to dominate the house for a while after 2020.

Just wanted to say, excellent post. Information dense.

[wittynickname]

Originally Posted by peter12

I am curious as to why. Do you think it would be a good thing if the Democrats controlled both Houses, the Executive, and eventually, were able to stack the Supreme Court?

It has to be better than the last 6 years of absolute refusal from a GOP House/Congress to actually do anything resembling their jobs. We might stop wasting money trying to cripple the Affordable Care Act, investigating Benghazi for the 30th time, or yet again attempting to defund Planned Parenthood.

Actual legislating might happen for a change.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by wittynickname

It has to be better than the last 6 years of absolute refusal from a GOP House/Congress to actually do anything resembling their jobs. We might stop wasting money trying to cripple the Affordable Care Act, investigating Benghazi for the 30th time, or yet again attempting to defund Planned Parenthood.

Actual legislating might happen for a change.

Peter is a social conservative, that's why.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by wittynickname

It has to be better than the last 6 years of absolute refusal from a GOP House/Congress to actually do anything resembling their jobs. We might stop wasting money trying to cripple the Affordable Care Act, investigating Benghazi for the 30th time, or yet again attempting to defund Planned Parenthood.

Actual legislating might happen for a change.

Not to mention gun control, higher education, climate change and clean energy, immigration reform . The list goes on.

Peter the burden of proof should be on you, why would a republican house made up of its current constituency be desirable in any way?

[peter12]

I'm not really a social conservative, not in the crude sense you believe, anyway.

I just find this utopian partisanship to be very irritating. Uniform ideological conformity serves no one.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by peter12

I'm not really a social conservative, not in the crude sense you believe, anyway.

I just find this utopian partisanship to be very irritating. Uniform ideological conformity serves no one.

To be fair, I don't think anyone truly wants one-party rule as much as they want to see the current iteration of the GOP obliterated and hope that a more moderate reincarnation comes about.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by rubecube

To be fair, I don't think anyone truly wants one-party rule as much as they want to see the current iteration of the GOP obliterated and hope that a more moderate reincarnation comes about.

Not moderate, maybe, which leftists want to mean "more like them," but perhaps, more relevant would be good.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by peter12

Not moderate, maybe, which leftists want to mean "more like them," but perhaps, more relevant would be good.

How about a GOP that just lets roe v. Wade alone. You know get with the last 40 years like everyone else. How about that kind of GOP?

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by peter12

Not moderate, maybe, which leftists want to mean "more like them," but perhaps, more relevant would be good.

The reality is more relevant means more moderate.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by peter12

Not moderate, maybe, which leftists want to mean "more like them," but perhaps, more relevant would be good.

Please. Go on...

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Political discussion goes in the other thread, guys.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

On the topic of this thread, a new Fox poll has Clinton up by 10 in Michigan, while Trump leads by 13 in Mississippi. One of those is supposed to be a "swing state."

[Senator Clay Davis]

I think it's fair to wonder if Trump hasn't already peaked in the polls. Based off his campaign shakeup today, I really doubt he's going to be adding much to his numbers with his new strategy of using his old strategy. He's basically hoping for Hillary scandals to bring her numbers down closer to him. Don't see how he can grow his numbers if he's tripling down going after only his core, who's made it clear it's never leaving him.

[corporatejay]

Is there a site that shows what the college results would be if held today? What is the biggest college discrepancy of all time?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Reagan beat Mondale 525-13. Texas alone gives Trump 38, so there's pretty much no chance Trump doesn't get to at least 100 in the Electoral College. It'll still be a humiliating defeat though.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Is there a site that shows what the college results would be if held today? What is the biggest college discrepancy of all time?

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/
about halfway down the page.