How Screwed are the Flames?

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Hartley after the Wings win basically dismissed advanced stats saying that they don't play a possession game.

Last time I looked, he makes more dough than all the advanced stats guys combined. Oh, and he also has his team in 3rd in the Pacific.

Do I believe pencil pushing advanced stats guys or a Stanley Cup winning coach who coached both pre and post lockout.

It's very clear we don't play a possession based game, and it is definitely on purpose.

The problem with that though, and the point enhanced stats users will bring up is that Stanley Cup champions do play a possession based game.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

It's very clear we don't play a possession based game, and it is definitely on purpose.

The problem with that though, and the point enhanced stats users will bring up is that Stanley Cup champions do play a possession based game.

No one is confusing the Flames with Stanley Cup champions. What they are is a playoff contender based on playing a style that works for them. As a fan, I'm pretty happy with that at this point.

[Rerun]

^^^ this

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by edslunch

No one is confusing the Flames with Stanley Cup champions. What they are is a playoff contender based on playing a style that works for them. As a fan, I'm pretty happy with that at this point.

Yeap.

Plus, they are competing for that playoff spot with a cap floor salary structure, and a lot of young players driving the results.

[heep223]

What is this guy going to do when we win the cup this year?

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

The problem with that though, and the point enhanced stats users will bring up is that Stanley Cup champions do play a possession based game.

The Stanley Cup champions play a rig the shot clock game.

I always get a chuckle at how much nuance is given to stats that are probably +/- 20% margin for error. Or 100% in LA.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

The Stanley Cup champions play a rig the shot clock game.

I always get a chuckle at how much nuance is given to stats that are probably +/- 20% margin for error. Or 100% in LA.

+/- 20% is a huge stretch. Outside of LA, you won't find that kind of discrepancy.

LA does ruin the credibility though

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

+/- 20% is a huge stretch. Outside of LA, you won't find that kind of discrepancy.

LA does ruin the credibility though

I dunno. Including shots, attempts, and blocks. That's ~100+ items a night? I'd bet the same game shown to 10 different crews would easily have a range of 80-120 counted.

LA, San Jose, Chicago, and Boston are all bad. Probably others where the teams are not as strong and it shows less.

Just my opinion.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

I dunno. Including shots, attempts, and blocks. That's ~100+ items a night? I'd bet the same game shown to 10 different crews would easily have a range of 80-120 counted.

LA, San Jose, Chicago, and Boston are all bad. Probably others where the teams are not as strong and it shows less.

Just my opinion.

No proof either way that I know of, but I don't think there's that kind of variance. Maybe a couple % if I had to guess

[Enoch Root]

Yeah, 20's a lot. Maybe 5 on the outside

[Dajazz]

On a scale of 1-10 I'd say 3.

Watch Wideman channel his inner Weber.

[Red John]

Stumbled on Ryan Lambert's twitter. Not going to link to it here, but its an absolute trainwreck and it's highly entertaining.

The guy tweets probably a dozen times a day and more than half of those are about the Flames. Going back and reading a few pages two things are apparent:

1) He hates the Flames. Seriously he might be the biggest Flames hater on the internet. Like more than Ricky Sangha, Sundeep Malhi, or Collin Loyer. No joke. The guy literally has gotten a gig at Flames Nation just to post about how much he hates them. It's an obsession.

2) The guy can't be more than 13 years old. Honestly, he's like the Ermagherd girl. His posts literally read "flames suck lol kthxbye" or similar. He's the typical internet warrior that gets memes named after him and would get made fun of anywhere online. Doesn't even try to come across as a normal functioning adult.

The dude must foam at the mouth every time the Flames win. He's a trainwreck and it's beautiful to follow. Don't have twitter personally but if you do, follow him! It's like following Springs1. It's a must!

[Obsidian]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

It's very clear we don't play a possession based game, and it is definitely on purpose.

The problem with that though, and the point enhanced stats users will bring up is that Stanley Cup champions do play a possession based game.

Well, again. I don't see any one out of Calgary clamouring "Stanley Cup Champs".

Why won't these critics let Calgary earn a playoff spot for its fans in peace? We deserve it, they deserve it. Stats are stats, the scoreboard at the end of the night shows what it will, and oft times doesn't even reflect the former. That's hockey. There are descrepancies, and anomalies. It seems a team defies the "rules" each season. That in itself has been consistent, so when does it start being recognized, and accepted? Colorado not only snuck in, but won their division. One doesn't simply fluke themselves to a win 40+ times over a season. And no, it wasn't sustained into this season, but they showed it can be sustained over the course of a season and carry a team into the playoffs. Doesn't mean they didn't earn it. Conversely what's a good possession team if they cannot capitalize when needed? There are simply different ways to win. One is more risky, and not a long term solution, but it's not that it doesn't work. But do the Flames plan on winning their games in this fashion for seasons to come? Hell no! That's what they don't get. This isn't the endgame for the Flames as a team. They have cornerstone pieces in development that will raise their all around game in due time. It doesn't mean they can't form their game this season, while still in the growing stages, around a method that can allow them some success now.

The time to press doubts on the Flames ability to win games died months ago when they simply did not stop doing it. Like really, live with it. It's not the first time we see it and it won't be the last.

[Scoutski]

Lots of good discussion in this thread but man advances stats and I-told-you-so's are really tiring...

The Flames have won more games than they've lost, that's all I care about. Even if they don't make the playoffs, I still had fun, someone telling me that they "didn't deserve it" isn't going to change that.

[PeteMoss]

The 'advanced' stats are fine for what they are. Its lazy writers who don't want to do any work to examine the 'why' of the Flames being an exception to Corsi and just want to look at behindthenet.ca and spit out articles to get clicks.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Even using the phrase "exception to corsi"... what does that even mean? Are some teams an exception to save percentage or an exception to shots on goal?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Even using the phrase "exception to corsi"... what does that even mean?

It means that a team can have a winning record with bad Corsi numbers, or a losing record with good Corsi numbers. I know this is an unfamiliar concept to you.

[EldrickOnIce]

I hope the Habs go really deep.
And they definitely could represent the East.
Their fancy stats are similar to Calgary's - near the bottom of the league.

Flames vs Habs final. Easily the two worst fancy stats teams in the playoffs meeting for all the marbles.
One can dream

[Daryei]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Flames vs Habs final. Easily the two worst fancy stats teams in the playoffs meeting for all the marbles.
One can dream

Rubber match. Finally settle it once and for all.

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by bigehn

Are these Flames for Real?

Thanks for this post. As for as the shot luck goes, this great graphic also shows Byron's no luck. Does it even out? Had he potted some of those goals we'd be even further ahead.

Looking at individuals.

-Hudler, it shows about a 5 goal differential, is it that hard to conceive that a player can become a 25 goal scorer from 20? or 30 from 25?

-Wideman, shows 3.6 extra goals. The guy is launching is from the point, it will defelect and go all over the place, there's no being lucky or unlucky in that scenario. He's actually in line with some of his productive years. He's at 12 goals right, career high is 13, which he did it twice, so average out good year and not so good years, 10 goals or so sound about right for him.

-Brodie, shows 3.5 extra goals. Different from Wideman. He's not just launching it from the point. He carries the pick and picks his spots. Not to mention he's still very young and developing so his previous numbers are in development years which you can't use for an average yet.

-Bouma, shows almost almost 5 extra goals. This one can be an outlier. I'm not sure if Bouma will put up numbers like this again but remember this is only his 2nd full year. He's gone from 5 to 12 goals. His shooting % is high because he will never take gazillion shots.

-Raymond, shows 3 extra goals. Raymond's a streaky player. We all know that. So given his streaks it's not hard to think he'll will have up and down in his shooting %s over his career too. His previous 6 seasons he's scored exactly 90 goals, thats an average of 15 per season. He's at 12 right now. He likely tops out at his career average of 15 this year.

I'm not going to look at guys who are showing less goals. I like numbers and stats as much as the next guy but they have to be related to something. You can't just say I placed 1st overall, well if there were only 2 ppl competing thats not much on accomplishment. Finishing 900 in a pool of 10000 for example would mean much more. That's the issue with Corsi and all, it doesn't show where the shots are coming from. If they were to breakdown the quality of chances, at the time of game, shot location, shot distance then it would mean something.

I don't think any of our guys are way over their head. Do we get pinned into our zone sometimes? of course so does every team. We are still a re-building team, so you can bet on these numbers improving.