Is this a playoff team?

[united]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

I really take offense that you would think this Flames team is anything close to resembling any Oiler team of the last decade.

These are NOT the Edmonton Oilers, because as we all know E=NG, and this team is definitely NOT no good. (Sorry for the double negative)

Whoa whoa whoa I never said that and would never go that far. Come on, have some faith! Apologies for making it seem that was my intention!

[Displaced Flames fan]

Firmly entrenched in the Who cares, I'm just happy the rebuild is going well camp. Loving the games. Loving watching the kids step up. Loving Hiller and Ramo. If they don't maintain this pace nothing is lost.

Fun team to watch.

[trublmaker]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

We are going to stumble. It is inevitable. That is part and parcel of an 82-game season for a young team. But the wins we are stringing together now will mitigate the damage such a streak could cause.

(fingers in ears) LA LA LA can't hear you. overly optimistic I know but love what this team is doing and the fact they are getting recognized for it.

[2ArmBands]

It's too early to tell. But if you think about it what would your view point have been in the beginning of the season if you were told the Flames would have a
bonified top 4 (including potential Norris canidate) and stellar goaltending?

Obviously these components are still "what ifs" but if they can sustain I think we are definitely in the mix.

Make it or miss this team is developing a culture that most teams are in awe of. It's a great time to be a Flames fan. Bob Hartley has done an incredible job with this group to date.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by TheDebaser

I think something that is easy for people to overlook is the upward trajectory of this team.

Shots for the first 5 flames games: 124-flames 188-opponents (40% of shots)

Shots for the last 9 flames games: 254-flames 233-opponents (52% of shots)

I think the Flames are only going to keep improving the way they did last year. I don't think they're a shoo-in for a playoff spot, but I think they're putting themselves in a position where they can realistically get lucky.

Upward trajectory is nice, but it's a double edged sword. Why would we think the 9 exhibit the flames true level of play and not the first 5? Usually when these types of situations occur, the answer lies in the middle

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Upward trajectory is nice, but it's a double edged sword. Why would we think the 9 exhibit the flames true level of play and not the first 5? Usually when these types of situations occur, the answer lies in the middle

Because they came more recently and therefore show progress and not deterioration?

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Because they came more recently and therefore show progress and not deterioration?

It is just a hot streak? A 9 game span isn't necessarily a good sample for what to redirect moving forward. Regardless of timing, a 14 game sample is likely more accurate

[ThatsRobbery]

I'm really just happy with the progress alot of the younger guys are having. Seems many of our prospects are improving which bodes well for the rebuild. Can start replacing vets we don't really want with the kids as they gain more experience. So playoffs or not, if this trend continues, its a good season for me.

[Gaudfather]

John Shannon had a segment today on Prime Time Sports with Bob McCown where he was singing the praises of the Flames and stating he is starting to believe they could be playoff contenders this year. Check the segment here; http://www.sportsnet.ca/590/on-demand/#rotation=1 (it is around 5:05 to 5:15 pm EST)

[trublmaker]

Originally Posted by Gaudfather

John Shannon had a segment today on Prime Time Sports with Bob McCown where he was singing the praises of the Flames and stating he is starting to believe they could be playoff contenders this year. Check the segment here; http://www.sportsnet.ca/590/on-demand/#rotation=1 (it is around 5:05 to 5:15 pm EST)

gawd damn it, john shannon is an idiot and never gets anything right, we're screwed now.

[Yrebmi]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Upward trajectory is nice, but it's a double edged sword. Why would we think the 9 exhibit the flames true level of play and not the first 5? Usually when these types of situations occur, the answer lies in the middle

Might also note the flu was going around during the 5
No excuses, but just saying.

We have some mid level important injuries right now, and can reasonably expect some improvement when health returns. With the way the call ups are performing a trade could well happen too. This might also be reason for strengthening our position (or screw with chemistry precipitating a standings tumble. )

Just too early in the season, but reasons abound for optimism. GFG

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Because they came more recently and therefore show progress and not deterioration?

So if we get outshot on aggregate over the next five games, does that mean we are 'deteriorating'?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

So if we get outshot on aggregate over the next five games, does that mean we are 'deteriorating'?

It sure doesn't mean we are improving. And if you're not improving ....

[nik-]

I voted no. We haven't really slugged through the tough teams yet.

We've won two games against legit teams, Nashville and Chicago, and one of them we had no business winning.

It's going to be fun while it lasts though. I still think we're drafting near the bottom of the top 10.

[Bourque's Twin]

I think we could be a playoff team. We've either win or put up a legitimate fight (except against St. Louis).

Our 2004 squad didn't have much talent either...

[driveway]

No, we're not a playoff team. We're getting out-of-this-world goaltending. We're bottom-five in possession stats and have a sky-high PDO.

We also have not played very much against the West. Once we've got at least two games in against each of the western teams, I expect we will be out of a playoff spot and hovering somewhere around 20th in the league.

The only caveat is if Hiller runs away with the Vezina. Then we might squeak in.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

The problem with Corsi/Fenwick is they will always favor teams that come over the blue line and rip a shot on net first chance. Sure, the more times you do that the more chances you have at scoring, but what I have noticed is the Flames are playing a possession game and they try to go for great chances rather than just firing on net*, which also skews our PDO. I'd be curious to look at the correlation of playing style and Corsi/Fenwick, but I'm too lazy. Stat geeks, where are you?

There is a well-established correlation between shots for and shooting percentage: teams that take fewer shots take better shots, so a team that is below average in shots for (like the Flames) should expect their shooting percentage to stay above average. And if our PDO goes down because our shots for improves, well we're likely to be scoring more goals so that's fine!

Also, good goaltending is good goaltending and helps to sustain a high PDO.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by driveway

We also have not played very much against the West.

3-2-2 vs. East. (Clb, TB, Car, Wsh x2, Mtl x2)
• 3 games vs. opponents in the top 5 in the East.

5-2-0 vs. West. (Van, Edm, StL, Nsh x2, Chi, Wpg)
• 4 games vs. opponents in the top 5 in the West.

Sagarin rates the Flames' strength of schedule 10th in the league as of Tuesday night.

The team has been on a hot streak and had more than its share of luck so far, as stats like PDO and Corsi suggest. But the idea that the Flames have had an easy schedule so far is unfounded.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Regardless of timing, a 14 game sample is likely more accurate

It depends how you choose the sample.

In this case, there's a clear dividing line that suggests the first 6 games and the next 8 are not comparable:

In the first 5 games, Johnny Gaudreau had one shot on goal and no points. Then he was scratched for one game. In those 6 games, the Flames scored 14 goals (plus 1 SOW).

In the last 8 games, Gaudreau has had 18 shots and 8 points. The Flames scored 26 goals in that time – almost a goal per game better than their previous pace.

The team's SOG and possession stats also improved dramatically in those 8 games compared to the first 6.

When the light bulb went on over Gaudreau's head, the team's offence changed dramatically for the better. I'm sure he'll have slumps during the season, but he has made a major and obvious improvement to his game, and that makes the Flames significantly stronger. Those first few games look to me like they may turn out to be an outlier.

[Tinordi]

I'd say no we aren't.

The predictive stats like possession and luck indicate the team is playing over its head. Depth issues - not withstanding call ups performing well on adrenaline - will likely weigh down over the next 20.