Ryan Lambert article on sending Monahan down

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by New Era

It is a well known, and long standing joke around the league, that a lot of stats are interpreted differently from arena to arena. That's all that needs to be said on the subject, because everyone in the game knows that certain teams cook the books. No attempt to discredit, the statisticians do it themselves. I am very interested to know how you know shots are meticulously tracked? Unless you are watching every game and are auditing the shot trackers you have no idea how accurate they are. Again, Boston is infamous for pumping up the shots for. Other buildings are generous in the hits department while others hardly give any. It is interpretation of what constitutes a given stat that is sorely lacking and which brings all of these measures into question. But I'm not changing your mind, so we'll leave it at that.

No that's not all that needs to be said on the topic. You haven't provided any proof beyond "it's well established." Oh yeah, by whom?

Beyond that nitpicking point your arguments are still mired in base-level statistical illiteracy.

As opendoor has said, almost every team is using these stats now. The Canucks certainly do, and I'm betting the Flames are as well because they provide much more insight than the traditional statistics.

You can choose to be ignorant of them but you can't choose to actually credibly criticize them at least not by what you've brought to the table already.

[thefoss1957]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8477497 has him at 185, Yahoo has him at 187

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by thefoss1957

http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8477497 has him at 185, Yahoo has him at 187

http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/roster/show/id/6508

193lb according to OHL's site. I read somewhere else that he had bulked up a bit over the summer though.

Regardless, he's bigger and seems more suited to the NHL than Baertchi at this point so his current physical ability must be an argument towards keeping him and not sending him back to Junior. Management AND the majority of fans would love nothing more than to steer his development path straight into the NHL.

So who is this third party that will be responsible for sending him down to the OHL? Can the media really brainwash fans and force management into making poor decisions? Because they seem to be the only ones wanting him to go back to juniors (and I'm sure the flames opposition).

[Buff]

Advanced stats can't tell anybody if Monahan is going to learn more from staying in the NHL or from returning to the OHL... or do they?

According to Lambert's advanced stats Monahan isn't as good as his regular stats indicated. So, I think it is safe to say that the advanced stats are telling us that Monahan is making mistakes and needs to be better. What is that old saying? You learn by making mistakes? Considering the advanced stats say he isn't a perfect player yet, and the people who don't use advanced stats say that he isn't looking to be out of place in the NHL, then we can surmise that the NHL is the correct place for Monahan to be this year. He has a lot to learn but isn't making too many mistakes that he is in over his head.

[Travis Munroe]

Im not so much of a stats guy as I am a "how is he playing" guy so the writer can take his percentages somewhere else. There is no question that his play has been good enough to stay, his backcheck is actually quite good and simply put, he knows how to get into open areas and put the puck in.
All that combined with how he is also giving Sven the much needed jump and I do not see him going back.

As per the article, its awesome how still very few outside of Calgary believe this could be for real..... a team with less skill but more work ethic and heart could win more games than a team with stars that seldom give 100%

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Fire

Keeping Monahan up could save money on his 2nd contract because presumably his points totals would be less than if he stayed in junior one more year.

IMO cash or cap issues should have no factor in keeping Monahan up or not. It's what's best for his development. It is very unlikely the Flames would get in cap issues down the line because of one year in Monahan's contract.

This this and more this.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

As per the article, its awesome how still very few outside of Calgary believe this could be for real..... a team with less skill but more work ethic and heart could win more games than a team with stars that seldom give 100%

The wins have been real, but that doesn't make it sustainable. The real test will be how they respond to early adversity. A losing streak, a spate of injuries, etc. The next step will be at the half way point, as the games have less importance.

It's easy to keep the intensity up when it's "us vs the world" or "we're not expected to win" in the first few games, less so in the humdrum games in the middle.

In short, there's a reason talent trumps grinding more often than not. We may have found out there is more talent than we thought, but there's not enough there over 82 games to be in the top 16

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Buff

According to Lambert's advanced stats Monahan isn't as good as his regular stats indicated. So, I think it is safe to say that the advanced stats are telling us that Monahan is making mistakes and needs to be better.

That's a rather large leap of logic... what they say is that thus far he's been more lucky then good. Which is true unless one is to believe that he's going to maintain a shooting percentage of 31% over a full year.

All stats are, ideally, is a record of what has happened they (stats) don't make judgements like "needs to be better".

[squiggs96]

In 2005-06 Crosby played his first year in the NHL, right after he was drafted. That Penguins team finished last in the conference with only 58 points, and only one point out of last in the league when St. Louis finished with 57. Crosby played in 81 games that year, and "burned" a year off his ELC, playing on a horrible team. Should Pittsburgh have sent him back to juniors to save that year? No, as he had nothing left to prove at that level, and his development was only going to be helped by playing against NHL competition. Pittsburgh made the correct, and very obvious, move to keep him on the NHL roster.

Although Monahan is not the same calibre of player that Crosby is, the situation the Flames are in is close to the situation Pittsburgh was in. Calgary isn't projected to do very well this year. Some have called them the worst roster Calgary has ever iced. I would argue that Monahan's second contract should have no bearing on whether he stays or not this year. If he will develop better this year, in the NHL, against better competition, then keep him up. Pittsburgh found a way to sign Crosby and Malkin to huge deals. Chicago has found a way to keep Kane and Toews. I'm pretty sure Calgary will find a way to pay Monahan after three years, and keep both sides happy. I think a player will become a better player if they play against better competition. I don't think him ruling the CHL will be the best idea. I'd rather he makes mistakes with the Flames, learns from them, and is surrounded by better coaches and players that will aid in his development. He can learn more from mistakes in the NHL than he can from successes in the CHL. I also think he will have many successes in the NHL this season, as he's shown remarkable poise and presence so far.

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by strombad

Keith wasn't on his entry level deal, he was on his second contract.

Keith had signed his contract, but it didn't go into effect until 2010-11. He was still on his entry level deal when they won the cup.

http://www.capgeek.com/player/252

[Dagger]

I think people are putting too much stock into the money department. The Flames have never had a problem paying top dollar to keep their players since the cap era began and have shown a willingness to spend to the cap even if the team isn't elite. If Monahan earns his money, he WILL get it.

The problem with the 9 game rule more comes down to what is better for his development. If you keep him up and he scores ~50 points and the Flames stay a decent team, then great. But it's more likely that he doesn't receive much more ice team than he's getting now and his scoring rates fall dramatically...and that's been the only thing he's providing right now(which is great). So, if you keep him up maybe he learns best like this and has a decent season. But keep in mind Gagner and Skinner have never really built on their rookie season as to date(Gagner showed improvement last year though) and that even though they may be the best option in the short term, it could be better in the long term to keep them down.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Parallex

That's a rather large leap of logic... what they say is that thus far he's been more lucky then good. Which is true unless one is to believe that he's going to maintain a shooting percentage of 31% over a full year.

All stats are, ideally, is a record of what has happened they (stats) don't make judgements like "needs to be better".

True, but I see what he's saying. The advanced stats say he and his line mates are getting outshot so improvement is needed. Feedback from people watching the games is generally that he's holding his own, and his scoring while unsustainable does suggest decent skills and instincts there. A perfectly valid read is a young player who has some growing to do but is not completely over his head so why not let him grow in the NHL.

By the way, I assume there isn't enough data yet to isolate Monahan's performance from his line mates?

[Stanley]

IMO, sending him back down would simply be sending the wrong message, so far he's at least earned the right to play at this level. He's not the type of player that will regress by not going back to dominate junior - it's obvious he's NHL ready, with some rookie/junior mistakes in his game to iron out but man, I just don't see the advantage to either side by sending him down, unless he clearly demonstrates that he struggles to keep up physically.

Obviously his pace is bound to slow down, and he might find struggles throughout the year to keep up thru an 82-game season at this level, but I just don't see how you send this kid back down at this point. Sure, it's not like his goals are power-forward goals, he's had gifts/tap-ins but still...he's NHL ready, anything else IMO would be a counter-progressive.

But I guess I understand that even with his great start, some may feel he would progress better by be the go-to-guy in junior again, play big minutes, etc, etc...I dunno, I think he can handle significant (perhaps a bit sheltered) ice-time and grow at the NHL level.

[Inglewood Jack]

Originally Posted by fotze

Pretty sure he is a Flames fan. But being an optimistic fan of a team gets you 1/30 of potential fan hits. Being the guy who craps on his own team relentlessly will get far more hits because 29/30 of the potential fan hits will likely agree and love to read that.

If there was an Oilers fan blogger who totally slammed the Oilers we would find that pretty amusing. Sort of what downgoesbrown does to Toronto.

Its a schtick like Don Cherry.

I keep reading that Lambert is a Flames fan but I just can't see how it could possibly be true. until I started avoiding his articles like the plague, I'd been reading them for while and never once saw anything that was above mean-spirited and trollish. meanwhile I also read DGB and aside from being every bit as clever as Lambert wishes he were, his pokes at the Leafs just feel like good natured jabs, and more in line with what a suffering fan base would feel when they have a paper bag on their head. more importantly, DGB distributes his potshots basically evenly across the league. his Flames jokes are always about our playoff drought and Feaster's infamous near-disasters, but I can at least laugh at those.

as for Cherry, the difference with that schtick is that he actually believes every word he says, he's not just making stuff up to get ratings or views. I can respect that, as opposed to the manufactured baiting and controversy that writers like Lambert indulge in.

[iamca]

Originally Posted by Stanley

IMO, sending him back down would simply be sending the wrong message, so far he's at least earned the right to play at this level. He's not the type of player that will regress by not going back to dominate junior - it's obvious he's NHL ready, with some rookie/junior mistakes in his game to iron out but man, I just don't see the advantage to either side by sending him down, unless he clearly demonstrates that he struggles to keep up physically.

Obviously his pace is bound to slow down, and he might find struggles throughout the year to keep up thru an 82-game season at this level, but I just don't see how you send this kid back down at this point. Sure, it's not like his goals are power-forward goals, he's had gifts/tap-ins but still...he's NHL ready, anything else IMO would be a counter-progressive.

But I guess I understand that even with his great start, some may feel he would progress better by be the go-to-guy in junior again, play big minutes, etc, etc...I dunno, I think he can handle significant (perhaps a bit sheltered) ice-time and grow at the NHL level.

I agree and I would add two questions for folks that think he should be sent down:

Who has been a better player on the Flames through 5 games?

What will he learn or develop in the OHL?

Monahan dominated last year in Junior, so more of the same is not going to help him. Yes, he will go through ups and downs during the course of ~77 more games, but he'll learn more with the big club and he'll get through it.

[Shaggin Wagon]

I think we are being trolled.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by fotze

James Mirtle ‏@mirtle2hProblem with stats we have now is proponents are overselling their value and opponents are denouncing them without proper understanding.

/end thread

[strombad]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

Keith had signed his contract, but it didn't go into effect until 2010-11. He was still on his entry level deal when they won the cup.

http://www.capgeek.com/player/252

I don't know why that doesn't show the first contract, but it doesn't.
Notice his "first contract" starts in 06-07 according to that graphic.... yet he played the entire 05-06 season in the NHL.

He was on his second contract, his ELC ended at the end of 05-06 after playing two seasons in the AHL and one in the NHL.
(Plus, the max per year without bonuses for an entry level was under 900k at the time, so how exactly would he get paid well over a million per year without bonuses?)
Seriously, all you had to do is look even A LITTLE harder haha.

[N-E-B]

Why do so many people care if some idiot thinks Monahan should be sent back to junior? I think he should stay, but if someone disagrees, who cares? The guy seems like a jerk and he doesn't appear too intelligent so why are you all so concerned? Just ignore him, he's not very credible anyway, so why value his opinion? I get venting and all but seriously, just ignore the guy.

[Dagger]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

Im not so much of a stats guy as I am a "how is he playing" guy so the writer can take his percentages somewhere else. There is no question that his play has been good enough to stay, his backcheck is actually quite good and simply put, he knows how to get into open areas and put the puck in.
All that combined with how he is also giving Sven the much needed jump and I do not see him going back.

As per the article, its awesome how still very few outside of Calgary believe this could be for real..... a team with less skill but more work ethic and heart could win more games than a team with stars that seldom give 100%

It's because the Flames almost certainly aren't for real. Anyone want to venture back to 2011-2012 when our friends up in Edmonton were first in the West after 11 games(end of October)? In those games Eberle had 15 points in 11 games(scoring each game) and RNH had 11 points in 11 games. The Oilers were going to make the playoffs(or at least not suck), the sum was more than the parts and they could grind out victories. Except that their Fenwick was unsustainable and was even more so when you adjust for them "sitting back" and absorbing shots to protect leads. The Flames, though a little bit in Fenwick and Corsi numbers are still in a very similar territory.

It's a little off topic, but I think it's relevant because as a bunch I think we're in a bit of utopia with regards to how well we've done and good we've looked and as a result I think maybe lose our heads a bit with regards to just how good we can be. When this team starts to slip a bit(be it gradually or suddenly) do we want Monahan to be playing limited minutes in that environment?

It's all personal preference as I've said and I DO think Monahan will improve in the areas he most needs it so far(Faceoffs and defensive coverage) staying up here than he will in the OHL where he already dominates in both categories). I think Monahan is a rare player that is very cerebral about what he needs to do and actually implementing measures continuously to make sure he does which is why it may be better for him to stay up and why in comparison a guy like Sven was better off going down(not to say he's not smart or has a poor ethic, just that he isn't exceptional like Monahan in that regard).

What I do have a problem with is people dismissing metrics out of hand because they haven't bothered to look at them or understand them. They are very useful and will become increasingly prevalent as they become more in-depth and the NHL becomes more strict in measuring them. I'd wager that Feaster/Weisbrod have gone over Monahan's metrics and that they are playing a part in them delaying a decision when if you just went by simple stats and the eye test it could be fairly easy to have already announced him as a full time player.