Sales tax in Alberta?

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Slava

Ya, well forecasts (regardless of who makes them) are notoriously terrible. I see this on a daily basis in the stock market and when we as a province rely on commodity prices that is to be expected. Saying that they have intentionally lied though is a whole other realm. If any government starts to out and out lie about the budget, there should be criminal ramifications.

Tons of people, including the Liberals, warned that their revenue projections were out to lunch. You could argue that technically that isn't a lie but it is certainly disingenuous.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Slava

Ya, well forecasts (regardless of who makes them) are notoriously terrible. I see this on a daily basis in the stock market and when we as a province rely on commodity prices that is to be expected. Saying that they have intentionally lied though is a whole other realm. If any government starts to out and out lie about the budget, there should be criminal ramifications.

Is it misleading to goal-seek your budget based on commodity outlooks that you know are overly optimistic at the time at which you make them? I even mentioned that in the election thread last year that their estimates were intentionally rosey because it was obvious to anyone who worked in the business that this was the case if you looked at their price assumptions. Is misleading on purpose a lie? I would tend to think ethically it essentially is.

[Slava]

Well when I look specifically at their price projection for oil at $98.12 and the wide range of "professional forecasts" last year I have a hard time saying that its a lie. The range that I see was Goldman Sachs at $120 and the low was CIBC World Markets at $92. The average forecast was $99.38 and the actual 2012 average price was $94.11.

In case you are curious, the federal budget forecast was $100.70 and Saskatchewan was $100. So if you say the Alberta government was out to lunch, you have to lump in the feds and Saskatchewan (at least) in with them. I would suggest that the major difference between these other governments isn't anything to do with better forecasting (obviously when presented with these facts!), but instead a lesser reliance on resource revenue in general.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Slava

Ya, well forecasts (regardless of who makes them) are notoriously terrible. I see this on a daily basis in the stock market and when we as a province rely on commodity prices that is to be expected. Saying that they have intentionally lied though is a whole other realm. If any government starts to out and out lie about the budget, there should be criminal ramifications.

Right. He didn't say the PCs were untrustworthy, he said their budget forecasts were untrustworthy. Which they are. The forecasts are very often wrong by very large amounts.

[Slava]

OMG, now Rob Anderson and I appear to agree. What is this world coming to??!!

http://ow.ly/i/1zbB1

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Slava

OMG, now Rob Anderson and I appear to agree. What is this world coming to??!!

http://ow.ly/i/1zbB1

Actually, if you and Rob Anderson agree with an idea (and replacing income taxes with consumption taxes is a pretty good idea) then it seems like there should be possible to make it happen.

Or it could be like the HST in BC, where the uneducated majority end up killing something that is an objectively excellent idea.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Actually, if you and Rob Anderson agree with an idea (and replacing income taxes with consumption taxes is a pretty good idea) then it seems like there should be possible to make it happen.

Or it could be like the HST in BC, where the uneducated majority end up killing something that is an objectively excellent idea.

Well those comments were from 2008, so I'm sure he will be backing away as fast as politically possible.