The Quebec numbers for the NDP are stunning, even Duceppe looked shocked this morning.
This throws a whole new spiral into the election.
I think unless something miraculous happens that we're going to be sitting with a similar seat alocation after this election. It looks like the Conservatives might gain a few, but not enough for a majority, The Liberals might be in line for about the same or slightly less seats, the NDP will gain, and the bloc will maybe lose some seats.
I think that the seat projections on threehundredeight.com (which seems to be a decent gauge if any of these are worth anything!) have a CPC minority without many changes to the seat counts in general.
Right now according to that site if the vote happened today the Conservatives would fall 8 seats short of a majority. The Liberal's would gain slightly, it shows the NDP with pretty hefty seat losses and the Bloc about the same.
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So, if those polls are correct and if results were representative of popular vote, then it looks like the Liberals and NDP could theoretically form a coalition with around 50% of parliament and without backing from the Bloc. I don't know what is happening, but Layton is like a rock star in Quebec right now. Just out of curiousity, if the Liberals had 24% of the seats and the NDP had 27% and they formed a coalition, would Layton become Prime Minister... or would Ignatieff and Layton have to duel it out somehow?
So I wonder, if the Liberals and NDP have the power to form a majority coalition, would Harper approach one of them for a coalition too? Surely it would serve the constituents of the Conservative MPs better to be part of the ruling government then as an opposition to a Lib/NDP government with >50% of parliament.
This election, as boring as it seems, may change politics in the country forever.
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Last edited by FlamesAddiction; 04-21-2011 at 08:58 AM.
Sebastien Ricard, a popular Quebec singer and prominent sovereigntist, spoke at a Bloc rally on Wednesday night, where he delivered an impassioned speech against Duceppe's rivals.
Ricard characterized the Bloc's political rivals as radical conservatives, which includes the NDP. The singer said behind Layton's nice smile and "used-car salesman's French" is an authentic conservative. Ricard did not elaborate on how the NDP leader was a conservative.
Location: Wondering when # became hashtag and not a number sign.
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Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction
So, if those polls are correct and the election played out like that, then it looks like the Liberals and NDP could theoretically form a coalition with around 50% of parliament and without backing from the Bloc. I don't know what is happening, but Layton is like a rock star in Quebec right now. Just out of curiousity, if the Liberals had 24% of the seats and the NDP had 27% and they formed a coalition, would Layton become Prime Minister... or would Ignatieff and Layton have to duel it out somehow?
So I wonder, if the Liberals and NDP have the power to form a majority coalition, would Harper approach one of them for a coalition too? Surely it would serve the constituents of the Conservative MPs better to be part of the ruling government then as an opposition to a Lib/NDP government with >50% of parliament.
This election, as boring as it seems, may change politics in the country forever.
Not even close if we are using 308's predictions.
CPC 147 VS Lib/NDP 115
Ignatieff/Layton would still require the Bloc to form a government.
So, if those polls are correct and if results were representative of popular vote, then it looks like the Liberals and NDP could theoretically form a coalition with around 50% of parliament and without backing from the Bloc. I don't know what is happening, but Layton is like a rock star in Quebec right now. Just out of curiousity, if the Liberals had 24% of the seats and the NDP had 27% and they formed a coalition, would Layton become Prime Minister... or would Ignatieff and Layton have to duel it out somehow?
So I wonder, if the Liberals and NDP have the power to form a majority coalition, would Harper approach one of them for a coalition too? Surely it would serve the constituents of the Conservative MPs better to be part of the ruling government then as an opposition to a Lib/NDP government with >50% of parliament.
This election, as boring as it seems, may change politics in the country forever.
That poll is still based around popular vote and not ridings, so I don't think thats a correct conclusion.
I still don't think no matter what the situation is that the Conservatives would approach the Liberal's on anything.
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The Liberals are running a left of centre campaign and the NDP is more credible on that side. It forces the vote to them at the expense of the Liberals.
Location: Wondering when # became hashtag and not a number sign.
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This is why a majority seems more likely than it has since the election was called.
In Quebec, a four-way race is developing making it the most competitive province in the country, with many seats up for grabs for all the parties. The NDP (28%) leads narrowly over the Bloc Quebecois (27%), with the Conservatives (24%) and Liberals (20%) closely behind. Support for the Green Party has eroded (0% -- rounded down).
In Ontario, the Conservatives (41%) maintain a comfortable lead over the Liberals (27%), who are being challenged by the NDP (22%) who are not very far behind. The Green Party sits at 6% support.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives (46%) still have a healthy lead over the surging NDP (32%), but the Liberals (12%) are struggling to maintain levels of support higher than that of the Green Party (9%).
This is why a majority seems more likely than it has since the election was called.
In Quebec, a four-way race is developing making it the most competitive province in the country, with many seats up for grabs for all the parties. The NDP (28%) leads narrowly over the Bloc Quebecois (27%), with the Conservatives (24%) and Liberals (20%) closely behind. Support for the Green Party has eroded (0% -- rounded down).
In Ontario, the Conservatives (41%) maintain a comfortable lead over the Liberals (27%), who are being challenged by the NDP (22%) who are not very far behind. The Green Party sits at 6% support.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives (46%) still have a healthy lead over the surging NDP (32%), but the Liberals (12%) are struggling to maintain levels of support higher than that of the Green Party (9%).
I feel that with the Liberals doing so poorly, this is the opportunity for Ontario to show their power with their 100+ seats and vote for a Conservative majority. Stablize the country and bring Canada's concentration in the next mandate into the biggest province as Harper will cater to Ontario and the majority of his new cabinet would then be Ontarians.
Ontario voting all over the place would bring uncertainty with another minority government, possible coalition, Quebec separatists talks, Western alienation... all not good for Ontario.
Ontario still has the might, they need to start flexing it. Start being a have province again.
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What's the reasoning behind the NDP's recent polling gains? Have they made some significant new policy announcement that I missed?
Their gains are the Liberal's loss.
frankly the Libs and Ignatieff have run a disastrous campaign, they couldn't make the contempt of parliament and conservative conduct stick. They came out with a really dumb left of center platform at a time when people are worried less about massive social programs and more about jobs.
Ignatieff was not good in the debates, he underestimated how Harper would deal with his attacks.
Ignatieff has looked stupid lately, first with the no engines in the F-35 price statement which killed his ability to attack the program. His exposure of his role in Iraq and his denial which I don't think anyone believes.
He ran a really negative campaign and was clumsy in doing it.
Then the coalition thing came up again with Ignatieff saying basically "Let me be clear a coalition is off the table, but we will likely topple the government and then form a loose coalition".
I think the biggest momentum roll is coming from the feeling that people might have been ok with an election, but the Liberals have looked so bad and unprepared that the sentiment has changed to "What the frack did they want an election for", which combined with the sense that Ignatieff just did this because he's power hungry.
The Liberal party has to be extremely upset with Ignatieff and with the party strategists. They are heading for a terrible beatdown. If that happens I would expect that Ignatieff resigns during his concession speech.
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My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
This will be the 41st Federal election since Confederation, and the Liberal Party has never held a position below Official Opposition. Dropping to 3rd place would be disastrous.
Also, it looks like Jackie-boy isn't flying under the radar any more:
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I'm not a fan of Ipsos-Reid polls taken in isolation, as they tend to overrate the Tories as much as Ekos underrates them, but it does continue to show the trend all firms are noting of the NDP gaining at the expense of the Bloc and Liberals.
In fact, everyone is going down, save the NDP. The trends Nanos' daily polls are showing is quite interesting.
Well, I thought I should resurrect this thread, since I do like the idea of one thread for "discussions" and another for "polls, prognostications and such."
This snoozefest of an election has suddenly become pretty interesting. EKOS is now projecting 98 seats for the NDP....
Meanwhile, Nanos doesn't (AFAIK) do seat-level projections, but has the NDP within 5 points of the Tories, who have dropped to 36.4% from a high of nearly 40 earlier in the Campaign.
Ipsos-Reid has Layton ahead of all other contenders on general favourability ratings, pretty much confirming him as the big winner coming out of the debates. Harper is a close second, and Ignatieff isn't even invited to the party (13% think he'd be a good PM, compared to 45% for Layton. (Ipsos-Reid's last national poll was Apr. 21--with data collected from 18-20th, so that data is pretty stale--but it shows Harper in majority territory)
A Forum Research Poll (Apr. 25th and 26th) has the NDP within three points of the Tories. I can't seem to find the information about the margin of error for this one--if someone points me in the direction, I'll post more info about the methodology, since this is the most alarming for Harper, and so radically different from the Ipsos-Reid poll (which seems to have a slight Tory "house effect" relative to other pollsters. That doesn't mean they're wrong, though)
Angus Reid has the Tories at 35% and the NDP at 30%.
My two cents:
There are two factors that may give solace to Harper:
1. The NDP's GOTV operation is (according to what I've read) not great, so they may underperform their numbers slightly on election day.
2. Greater NDP strength generally comes at the expense of Liberals, and given vote splitting in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, the Tories may be able to gain some seats there.
However, there are some things that may be keeping Harper up at night.
1. The trendlines are moving toward the NDP--and they're moving that way fast. A lot of people make their decision late in the campaign (like, within the last 48 hours) and you should always be careful about a party with momentum late in the game. If these trendlines continue, we may see HIGHER levels of NDP support on election day than the polls today (which by then will be a week old) are showing. (I kind of doubt it, because of the GOTV issue, but it's possible)
2. Harper has spent the entire campaign running against Ignatieff, who had low favourability ratings and low charisma (much like the PM himself) and didn't seem to be prepared for an election. The game has now changed, and Ignatieff is a non-factor. Harper is now running against a candidate with high favourability ratings, plenty of charisma and a clear vision for change. He's not prepared for that kind of campaign, and it may be too late to change gears.
My own prediction is that the NDP will -- slightly --underperform their poll numbers on election day, but will wind up as the official opposition to a weakened minority government led by Harper.
What will make things really interesting is if somehow the Liberals manage to hold on to the balance of power: will Harper swallow his pride and form a coalition with the Liberals to remain as PM? (or, will the Liberals quietly prop him up?) Will the Liberals join forces with the NDP and become the coalition boogeyman that Harper has been going on and on about?
Of course, if the Liberals are completely annihilated (which is possible--they're looking dismal at the moment) then they won't be any help to anybody.
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Also, a below-the-line result from Angus Reid, one that should worry Harper AND Ignatieff (emphasis added):
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About three-in-ten Canadians (29%) say they definitely or probably would consider voting for a party they dislike to force the defeat of a specific candidate in their riding. Liberal voters (43%) and NDP voters (33%) are more likely to partake in this practice than Conservatives (21%).
Also, more than a third of Canadians (37%) are considering voting strategically in order to reduce the chances of a specific party forming the government, even if it means casting a ballot for a candidate they dislike. More than half of Liberals (53%) and more than two-in-five NDP supporters (43%) are thinking of this option on election day.
I think it's safe to say that most Liberal voters who plan to vote "strategically" will be casting their ballots for the NDP. 43% are considering it: if even two thirds of those are thinking of switching to NDP (let's say 32%), and then a third of those end up actually doing it (so 10% of voters who currently intend to vote Liberal... we'd be looking at an election day bump for Jack Layton of perhaps 2 percentage points. Combined with a favourable NDP trend, that could make things really interesting.
