[Rumour] UPD: Friedman: Thinks a deal will get done between Gaudreau and the Flames in the next week

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by kermitology

Also, since you profess to teach negotiation, I'd like to hear your approach from the Flames point of view. Keeping in mind their cap constraints, duty to the rest of the league, competitive building, asset management, etc.

I covered this a bit earlier, but I would approach this as a strategic relationship (top right quadrant in the kraljic matrix) because he is critical to the team's success and has the right to withhold his services.


I can expand more if you'd like.

Originally Posted by wingmaker

This contract is guaranteed to be the largest ever awarded a 10.2 (C) player, provided it is not a bridge deal. That is the definition of precedent setting. If you don't understand that and how future agents will use that as a talking point to push negotiations, I really question your understanding of negotiations.

Future agents who have 10.2 (C) players as valuable as Gaudreau happen once in a blue moon. But yes, those agents should utilize their leverage if the team wishes to exert theirs. In this case, the cost having that sort of player miss time could be greater than the value gained by exerting leverage.

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I wonder if the Flames are getting some heat around the league after maybe giving some heat to other organizations in previous years about their contracts?

What's good for the goose and all that.

Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

This may be the one time Edmonton is on the phones berating other teams about their potential contracts...

[wingmaker]

Originally Posted by polak

I don't disagree that the different FA status' are important but when you're negotiating long term deals and trying to secure a player through his entire prime, I feel like some concessions should be made even though they technically can hold him hostage until their demands are met. Different story when you're negotiating short term deals and bridge contracts.

Treliving's reported offer of 6.4 is the largest contract ever offered to a !0.2 (C) player. How is that not making a concession? He probably will go up further from there. He can sit at the table and say "we are offering you the most money ever offered a player in your position." And they do not hold him hostage, they are holding him to the terms of the contract he signed. Just the same way as if he does sign an 8 year deal and doesn't break out the way everyone expects, the Flames will still be on the hook to pay all the money. That is the give and take of guaranteed contracts and the way the CBA was negotiated between the league and the PA. If Johnny doesn't like it, his beef is with the NHLPA for not fighting harder for entry level players, not with the Flames for negotiating from a position of strength awarded them by the terms of the contract Johnny signed, which is what anyone negotiating a contract would do in any situation. It is ridiculous to think the Flames should just throw up their hands and back up the money truck, especially in a cap world where they have to divide a set amount of money amongst all of their players/employees.

[JiriHrdina]

The supply risk only exists if he chooses to literally leave the league.
Are you an MBA? It is always coming together now

[Racki]

For my money Treliving and Yzerman are the two most up and coming, power GM's in the league. Interesting that these are the two holding the line while the most significant RFA's in recent memory are holding out. This is definitely an important negotiation as it relates to the future of the league.

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

I can expand more if you'd like.

I want you to explain your negotiation approach from the Flames point of view. Not about some matrix. Use numbers, what are your pressure points, where do you start, and how do you get to where you settle?

[JerryUnderscore]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

If I think about it, it's not necessarily precedent setting at all in terms of negotiating based on leverage. Johnny's got more leverage than any 10.2 (C) and most RFAs simply because he's so valuable to the team. The threat of him sitting 10 games could sink chances at a playoff berth pretty quickly, which would end up being enormously expensive to the team.

Not really. For the 2015 playoffs, the average ticket price for a Flames game was $290.29 (source). Assuming the Flames made the playoffs this year, ticket prices might a bit higher, lets round to $300 for now.

The Saddledome has a seating capacity of 19,289. I think it's a safe assumption that if the Flames make the playoffs this year, they will sell out all the home games. In which case, they're set to make $5,786,700 in ticket revenue. Now they don't have to pay the players for those games, but the rest of the Saddledome staff does have to get paid. However, let's forget that amount for now.

Unless the Flames get home ice advantage, we're looking at a maximum of three home games in the first round. Which means, 3 games at $5,786,700 ticket sales is $17,360,100. That's a lot of money.

But is that worth paying Gaudreau $8+ per season when you're ask is closer to $6.4M? Over the life of that contract, that $1.6M difference works out to $12.8M. Which means, if they buckle to Gaudreau's asking price, simply in order to make the playoffs this year, there's only set to make $4,560,100 (assuming they get all three playoff games).

Considering all the other factors that have been discussed, is the chance at an additional $4.5M in revenue this season from the playoffs worth the ramifications of capitulating to Gaudreau's contract request? I'd guess not.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Racki

For my money Treliving and Yzerman are the two most up and coming, power GM's in the league. Interesting that these are the two holding the line while the most significant RFA's in recent memory are holding out. This is definitely an important negotiation as it relates to the future of the league.

Oh boy. Another Bolts-Flames Stanley Cup Final.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

I will counter with this

[polak]

Originally Posted by wingmaker

Treliving's reported offer of 6.4 is the largest contract ever offered to a !0.2 (C) player. How is that not making a concession? He probably will go up further from there. He can sit at the table and say "we are offering you the most money ever offered a player in your position." And they do not hold him hostage, they are holding him to the terms of the contract he signed. Just the same way as if he does sign an 8 year deal and doesn't break out the way everyone expects, the Flames will still be on the hook to pay all the money. That is the give and take of guaranteed contracts and the way the CBA was negotiated between the league and the PA. If Johnny doesn't like it, his beef is with the NHLPA for not fighting harder for entry level players, not with the Flames for negotiating from a position of strength awarded them by the terms of the contract Johnny signed, which is what anyone negotiating a contract would do in any situation. It is ridiculous to think the Flames should just throw up their hands and back up the money truck, especially in a cap world where they have to divide a set amount of money amongst all of their players/employees.

That means nothing when Gaudreau is by far the best player to ever hold that status.

Back up the money truck? No one is saying give him the 8 he wants (well besides you know who). But you and everyone else on here probably agrees that he should be paid more than 33 year old Giordano if he signs long term throughout his prime.

Also yes they are technically holding him hostage. He doesn't have a contract. He's not being paid by the Flames. They just own his rights.

[wingmaker]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

Future agents who have 10.2 (C) players as valuable as Gaudreau happen once in a blue moon. But yes, those agents should utilize their leverage if the team wishes to exert theirs. In this case, the cost having that sort of player miss time could be greater than the value gained by exerting leverage.

Again, this contract will be used for leverage by any RFA, not just 10.2s. Tarasanko is not a 10.2 and yet you yourself have used that contract as a comparable for Johnny's.

Secondly, how can you possibly analyze what the cost will be one way or another without knowing the outcome? If Johnny signs for under 7 million dollars long term but misses the first few games, how could you possibly argue it wasn't worth the Flames using their leverage to ensure a deal they think is reasonable? You are over reacting at this point. If things go terribly wrong and Johnny ends up leaving the Flames prematurely through trade or whatever, than all of your posts will be vindicated. Otherwise, you are completely out to lunch.

[JerryUnderscore]

Originally Posted by polak

That means nothing when Gaudreau is by far the best player to ever hold that status.

Back up the money truck? No one is saying give him the 8 he wants (well besides you know who). But you and everyone else on here probably agrees that he should be paid more than 33 year old Giordano if he signs long term throughout his prime.

Aren't most of us in agreement that something in the $7-7.25M range is reasonable for both sides?

[polak]

Originally Posted by JerryUnderscore

Aren't most of us in agreement that something in the $7-7.25M range is reasonable for both sides?

Yup. That's what I said in my last post.

[JerryUnderscore]

Originally Posted by polak

Yup. That's what I said in my last post.

So, aside from Gaudreauvertime, we're all just arguing for the sake of arguing?

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

I'm a bit surprised at how concerned the rest of the league (i.e. owners, management) are about this contract. How many players in Johnny's position, that being two years, RFA, no offer sheet eligibility, are also going to be elite players?

The fact that there are basically no comparables shows you how how infrequently this situation arises. Why is it so important to everybody else? This isn't a routine RFA deal like Penner got.

I'm also a bit annoyed that the Flames have to have their best player sitting on the sidelines through training camp (and god forbid, beyond) to fight a fight for the rest of the league.

A precedent doesn't just have an effect on players in literally the exact same position, it can change the whole landscape of contracts. It's happened before and it will happen again.

[polak]

Originally Posted by JerryUnderscore

So, aside from Gaudreauvertime, we're all just arguing for the sake of arguing?

Isn't that CP's slogan?

[wingmaker]

Originally Posted by polak

That means nothing when Gaudreau is by far the best player to ever hold that status.

Back up the money truck? No one is saying give him the 8 he wants (well besides you know who). But you and everyone else on here probably agrees that he should be paid more than 33 year old Giordano if he signs long term throughout his prime.

No, I don't agree with that, because this contract is not about worth, it is about leverage, plain and simple. I think Monahan will be a more important player than Gio well before the end of their contracts, but I still do not think Monahan should be paid half a million more per year. Gio signed as a pending UFA. Completely different situation. If the Flames pay much more than what Gio makes on average, I will consider it a massive win for Lewis Gross.

[cam_wmh]

Originally Posted by bax

Friedman talked about Krug and Smith being in the same position in Boston two years ago. Essentially they both got one year deals with an "agreement" on new contracts the following off season

Bruins were 1 for 2 on that promise.
Smith was traded a year later, and signed his big new contract with the Panthers.

[TheoFleury]

Originally Posted by JerryUnderscore

So, aside from Gaudreauvertime, we're all just arguing for the sake of arguing?

It gets really batty is when you look up what $$$ amount he voted for in the poll

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by wingmaker

No, I don't agree with that, because this contract is not about worth, it is about leverage, plain and simple. I think Monahan will be a more important player than Gio well before the end of their contracts, but I still do not think Monahan should be paid half a million more per year. Gio signed as a pending UFA. Completely different situation. If the Flames pay much more than what Gio makes on average, I will consider it a massive win for Lewis Gross.

People are far too black and white. It is both about worth and leverage. Leverage is playing a part in this, as it should, JG's worth and more importantly expected worth (which is hard to figure out) is playing a part in this.

To say that this negotiation is only about leverage is complete crap, and I hope both BT and JGs agent aren't looking at it that way. Smart good business decisions don't get made entirely on leverage in negotiations, as that would create only one outcome. WIN for the Flames and not for JG. Both sides are hopefully looking to get a WIN WIN deal, or as close to one as they can, as that tends to drive the best business results (in this case, that means Flames success).