The Drive for 30th

[Erick Estrada]

Tonight worked out as well as possible. 5th is still a possibility but the Flames will need to lose out and get some help.

[bucksmasher]

Originally Posted by Rhettzky

Lot of crazy junk went down tonight. Basically we can't pick worse than 10th overall and it's unlikely that we slip beyond 7th based on our remaining games.

Pick: Team PTS (Remaining Games)
10th: Phoenix 46 (SJ, COL, ANA)
9th: Buffalo 46 (NYI)
8th: Philadelphia 45 (NYI, OTT)
7th: Calgary 42 (STL, CHI)
6th: Carolina 41 (NYR, PIT)
5th: Edmonton 41 (CHI, MIN, VAN)
4th: Nashville 41 (DET, CBJ)
3rd: Tampa Bay 38 (TOR, BOS, FLA)
2nd: Colorado 37 (PHO, MIN)
1st: Florida 34 (TOR, TB)

Keep in mind there is a 75% chance somebody else wins the lottery and we all move down one spot.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by bucksmasher

Keep in mind there is a 75% chance somebody else wins the lottery and we all move down one spot.

We only move down if someone higher in the standings wins... that's not a 75% chance.

[GreenLantern]

7th + 15th-20th in the first round, good enough to pry a top 5 pick out of another team like Colo or Tampa?

Tampa isn't hurting for forwards, they need D or goaltending, there isn't another D past Jones in the top 5.. and if he makes it to Colorado they will grab him..

Is it worth those top 2 picks to move up to 3rd or 4th?

[Rhettzky]

I'll add the odds for each team to win lottery.

Pick: Team - Points (Remaining Games) Odds of winning lottery%
14th to 11th: Combined odds to improve = 3.9%
10th: Phoenix - 46 (SJ, COL, ANA) 2.1%
9th: Buffalo - 46 (NYI) 2.7%
8th: Philadelphia - 45 (NYI, OTT) 3.6%
7th: Calgary - 42 (STL, CHI) 4.7%
6th: Carolina - 41 (NYR, PIT) 6.2%
5th: Edmonton - 41 (CHI, MIN, VAN) 8.1%
4th: Nashville - 41 (DET, CBJ) 10.7%
3rd: Tampa Bay - 38 (TOR, BOS, FLA) 14.2%
2nd: Colorado - 37 (PHO, MIN) 18.8%
1st: Florida - 34 (TOR, TB) 25%

[AC]

Originally Posted by SebC

We only move down if someone higher in the standings wins... that's not a 75% chance.

Yeah, it'll be about a 10% chance someone behind us wins the lottery and we drop a spot.

If we finish 7th: 12.3% chance we drop a spot
8th: 8.7%
9th: 6%

[driveway]

Originally Posted by bucksmasher

Keep in mind there is a 75% chance somebody else wins the lottery and we all move down one spot.

You're confused. There's a 75% chance that someone who isn't in last place wins the lottery, but "we all move down one spot" only if that team is behind where we finish in the standings.

If we finish 7th, there's only an 11.3% chance someone behind us wins the lottery and pushes us back to 8th.

[Saqe]

Looking at the games left for the Canes, Edmonton and Nashville, I really don´t see how the Flames can finish lower than 6th. Edmonton is the only one who might rise in the stangings. So probably 6th or 7th.

[Stealth22]

Carolina needs 2 points out of 4 against the Rangers and the Penguins, it doesn't matter how the hell they do it. Unlikely, but not impossible. Florida just beat the Rangers, so Carolina beating them isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Edmonton needs 2 points out of 6 against Chicago, Minnesota, and Vancouver. That one is a bit more iffy...I can see them winning against Minnesota, perhaps. Taking any two out of those games to OT would do the trick.

Nashville needs 2 points out of 4 against Detroit and Columbus. That is definitely doable, even for them.

Tampa is a bit of a reach...5 points out of 6 against Toronto, Boston, and Florida. They can definitely beat the Panthers. The other two, I'm not so sure.

That win against the Wild was pretty costly for us. I can see us moving up to 6th or 5th overall. Of course, this is all subject to us losing to St Louis and Chicago in regulation.

EDIT: If we had lost to Minnesota, we would be sitting at 4th overall right now.

[McG]

I just have a minor sense of relief. It's like the help you need to get into the playoffs...and the math...except in reverse.

I find myself secretly pulling for teams I normally don't give a flying for just to help us.

[djsFlames]

Wow.. one friggin game may have been the difference between getting a good 2nd line player and a franchise forward... how sad is that realization?

Stupid Minny and their lack of finish...

[GGG]

The nice thing about our loss and the philly and Buffalo wins are that it pretty much locks up 7 th place which gives us an 87% chance of getting one of Nishkunan, monahan, lindholm. I would like to move up one more spot to guarentee a top 7 pick but things look much better today.

I think 6th place is pretty likely.

[stignasty]

Here's the schedules for teams 20-28
Coyotes, Devils, Sabres - 46 points
Flyers - 45
Flames - 42
Oil, Hurricanes, Preds - 41
Tampa - 38
(Avs and Panthers can't catch the Flames).

[GGG]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Wow.. one friggin game may have been the difference between getting a good 2nd line player and a franchise forward... how sad is that realization?

Stupid Minny and their lack of finish...

We might think that but there isnt a draft in history that all top 4 players became franchise guys. So getting one of the top 4 really only doubles the likely hood of a franchise guy. Out of Mackinnon, Drouin, Jones and Barkov it is pretty likely that only 1 or 2 of them will be franchise guys and the remainder top 6/ top 4 guys.

[stignasty]

Part of me wants to see the Coyotes, Devils, Sabres and Flyers go 0-fer, and the Flames to go 2-0. The Flames would end up 20th overall and half of Calgary Puck would commit ritual suicide.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Wow.. one friggin game may have been the difference between getting a good 2nd line player and a franchise forward... how sad is that realization?

Stupid Minny and their lack of finish...

I'm not convinced the drop-off is that dramatic between the top 4 and the next 4. Monahan and Lindholm could both be first liners. Nurse could be a top two defenseman.

But obviously I'd much rather we were drafting 4th and had our choice of them.

What I really want is for some team ahead of us to take Nichushkin and let somebody else drop to us.

[Mr.Coffee]

I just don't understand how those other teams are that bad though. Like Calgary was awful this year, how are we not last / second last?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

I just don't understand how those other teams are that bad though. Like Calgary was awful this year, how are we not last / second last?

Was Calgary that awful? We had an 8 game winning streak at home or something like that didn't we? And really the difference between us and some of the teams below us is like one or two wins.

Florida was awful. The rest of us have been bad for a lot of the season but have had our moments.

[saillias]

Originally Posted by stignasty

Part of me wants to see the Coyotes, Devils, Sabres and Flyers go 0-fer, and the Flames to go 2-0. The Flames would end up 20th overall and half of Calgary Puck would commit ritual suicide.

Sounds like a personal problem, maybe share this with your therapist?

[Frequitude]

Updated probabilities of where we'll finish in the standings and where we'll end up drafting. Huge night in the standings for us. We moved up about 1.3 draft picks in terms of expectation.





" - " means zero possibility, " 0% " means some minute probability that rounds to zero.