I feel China is currently too smart to get dragged into a big war. Of course that might change if somewhere down the line Xi either wants to leave a bigger mark in history (that typical stupid crap men tend to get into when they get old), or if there's a major internal crisis they need a distraction from.
Other than that, I would imagine that one big lesson China is taking away from this war is just how enormous the economical and political risks are.
Plus they have a really good thing going now, being the only sane superpower and the only superpower not actively trying to bankrupt itself.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach
Yeah, if anything a NATO-Russia war that China can completely avoid being involved in is probably in it's best interest, as it would be in America's position post WWII where it gets to come in and "invest" in the rebuilding, being welcomed instead of seen as an invader.
I'm just not sure I see China sitting on the sidelines or at the least making moves in their part of the world, that they may not have done without a large war in Europe.
IE: Taiwan
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How anyone can pretend Trump is an ally of the Western World at this point is beyond understanding.
Absolutely not a single chance in hell Poland moves away from the EU. This is a country that lived under soviet occupation for half a century, still bares the scars of said occupation, and is the poster boy country for what happens when you transition away from the soviet sphere of influence into the arms of the EU with how booming their economy is. Of all the dumb things both Trump and Putin have tried to plant, this has got to be near the top in terms of stupidity.
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Absolutely not a single chance in hell Poland moves away from the EU. This is a country that lived under soviet occupation for half a century, still bares the scars of said occupation, and is the poster boy country for what happens when you transition away from the soviet sphere of influence into the arms of the EU with how booming their economy is. Of all the dumb things both Trump and Putin have tried to plant, this has got to be near the top in terms of stupidity.
If they keep relying on Tik Tok Candidates and algos to push pro-Russian candidates on the idiot masses, its not out of the realm of possibility.
But i agree. Poland is practically the spiritual leader of the EU at this point.
I'm just not sure I see China sitting on the sidelines or at the least making moves in their part of the world, that they may not have done without a large war in Europe.
IE: Taiwan
It's possible it could go for Taiwan. But China plays a long game, and I would imagine prefers to avoid open war. It's possible the fallout of a NATO-Russia conflict leaves China in a position to take Taiwan without force.
I was just going to say this! Poland alone could probably take down Russia at this point.
Europe is far from perfect, but the narrative that they couldn't deal with Russia on their own is one I've never ascribed to.
Yes, they need to invest more, but they are far from toothless. Russia is doing what Russia does, which is project and create dissonance. They want absolutely nothing to do with an actual conflict with Europe.
The combined air forces of the European NATO members would have air superiority in Western Russia within days, if not hours.
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Chinese media discuss the division of Russia. Openly. Yesterday, on NetEase - one of the largest Chinese media platforms - a text with the headline: "If Russia collapses, 7 million square kilometers cannot be lost" was published. It's about the Far East. And this is not an analysis - it's an instruction.
Putin on frozen Russian assets in Europe: “Theft is not the right definition for this. Theft is secret. Here it’s done in the open, so it’s burglary. The consequences are very serious for the burglars”
Ive been saying China will have the far east for 2 years now. Its so obvious. Its like hyper Tibet from a resource perspective, its relatively unpopulated and they have 100 million people within walking distance that could move in. Russian folly in Europe was always Xis path to expansion.
Taiwan can come later. There's another feast on the menu.
Last edited by Monahammer; 12-20-2025 at 08:04 AM.
Ive been saying China will have the far east for 2 years now. Its so obvious. Its like hyper Tibet from a resource perspective, its relatively unpopulated and they have 100 million people within walking distance that could move in. Russian folly in Europe was always Xis path to expansion.
Taiwan can come later. There's another feast on the menu.
I think you meant to say "the Russian Far East"?
Far East, although a term not that common used anymore, covers everything from Indonesia to Vietnam, Thailand etc. to China, so very much populated
It's an interesting idea that China will take over Eastern Russia, it's being floated around in increasing amounts. I think it includes factors that are too hard to predict to say anything for sure, but as things are, China is already taking ove many of those natural resources through economic colonization, or just normalish trade.
A Russian group of over 10 tried to sneak into Sotnytsky Kozachok on the Zolochiv axis (Kharkiv region border), moving in tight formation “goose-style.” https://twitter.com/user/status/2002679431723405414
Zelensky says Russia launched around 1,300 attack drones, nearly 1,200 guided bombs, and 9 missiles over the past week, with Odesa region hit especially hard. https://twitter.com/user/status/2002670021193937147
During the night of December 20-21, Russia launched 97 attack drones against Ukraine from multiple directions including occupied Crimea. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or suppressed 75 of them across all regions. https://twitter.com/user/status/2002657806281740725
Latest Perun has a lot of really interesting stuff,.well worth listening to but here's a couple of things:
- In the recent submarine strike, Ukrainian intelligence posted CCTV footage from what looked like the naval bases own CCTV system. That's quite a flex.
- Ukraine striking against the shadow fleet in Mediterranean and possibly also at the coast of Senegal (West Africa) is a pretty big deal. Civilian shipping is an extremely soft targets to begin with, and gets even softer if you're ready to strike anywhere in the world. Using underwater drones and ship-launched drones to do those attacks also adds a whole new level of deniability. While much of that drone technology is currently state of the art, it's only a matter of time before it becomes commonplace. And that has the potential to make things like the Houthis blocking the Red Sea look like small and easy problems.
- Russian oil trade is seriously hurting from all the pressure Ukraine has put on it.
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Two Ukrainian soldiers stayed on a position for over 3 months. Captured a Russian soldier who survived a BTR assault. He helped them defend further Russian attacks knowing he would likely die if the Russians captured the position. His translated interview is the second video.
A Russian war blogger says assault troops on the Kramatorsk sector now “enter” positions one by one on foot, guided by a lone Mavic because “the whole sky belongs to the enemy.” https://twitter.com/user/status/2005251064585740366
Leonid Ivashov, a heavy-hitting retired Russian Colonel General, recently went rogue and started saying out loud what most people in the Kremlin only dare to whisper. He didn't hold back, basically calling things out for being a mess. The Big Picture: "We're in Trouble" Ivashov starts by basically saying Russia is a mess right now. He’s not sugarcoating it: we’re lonely on the world stage (only a handful of countries even talk to us at the UN), and we’ve lost our influence over our neighbors. He even compares putin’s era to the start of the Soviet collapse under Gorbachev—lots of talk, but everything is breaking. https://twitter.com/user/status/2005086709705282004
From Nazi Germany’s invasion of the USSR, it took Soviet troops 1,399 days to enter Berlin and 1,410 days until Berlin officially surrendered. It has now been 1,403 days since February 24, 2022. Russian troops can’t even take Kupyansk and are now resorting to cavalry. https://twitter.com/user/status/2005146547407683612
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As for a withdrawal from Donbas, it is no secret that Russia wants this. In their fantasies, they would like us not to exist on the territory of our own country at all. https://twitter.com/user/status/2005632681866859007
Polish Prime Minister Tusk stated that the West and Ukraine will lose the confrontation with Russia if it manages to divide democratic countries and dictate the terms of peace. https://twitter.com/user/status/2005630429433573798
