2019/2020 Trade Speculation and Rumors 2.0

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by New Era

This is silly and needs to stop. Teams trading for Gaudreau are NOT trading for just two years of Gaudreau. They will be trading for a player they believe will be a core player on their team for the next decade. Teams will do their due diligence and know if Johnny has interest in signing with them long-term. They will not make a trade for the return that Calgary will be demanding if they are not confident that Gaudreau will sign an extension at the end of his current deal.

Thank you.

I'm am getting so tired of the Gaudreau speculation always being shot down with "team A isn't trading that type of package for two years of Gaudreau"

Buffalo fans, Columbus fans, Carolina fans, etc all respond that way. Even Jersey fans balk at being able to re-up Johnny. The only fans you don't hear that from are Flyer fans haha.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

It does seem like a reach.

One example I can think of was the Jeff Carter to CLB trade.


Why'd the Jackets do that?

To appease disgruntled star player Rick Nash IIRC, who was getting frustrated with constantly losing.

Carter was a C, a year younger than Gaudreau, and signed for 12 more years on a good value deal. There are still 2 years left on Carter's deal (and he continues to be 'fair value').

Having the best chance to re-sign Gaudreau at a painful cap hit isn't that valuable of an aspect of the trade...exploiting his AAV for the next 2 years if the true value.

Originally Posted by Flames_F.T.W

Boston traded Phil Kessel for what turned out to be two top 10 picks as well (Seguin & Hamilton). So it does happen occasionally. Johnny is a top LW in his prime, under an EXTREMELY friendly contact for 2 more years during a time when cap space is extremely valuable. So his value should be substantial.

It certainly wasn't the perceived/expected value of those picks at the time.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Carter was a C, a year younger than Gaudreau, and signed for 12 more years on a good value deal. There are still 2 years left on Carter's deal (and he continues to be 'fair value').

Having the best chance to re-sign Gaudreau at a painful cap hit isn't that valuable of an aspect of the trade...exploiting his AAV for the next 2 years if the true value.



It certainly wasn't the perceived/expected value of those picks at the time.

There is always going to be differences when hunting for comparable trades, no two trades are identical.

Having Carter signed for 12 more years really did Columbus a lot of good, didn't it?

[Roof-Daddy]

The Sens were able to get Erik Brannstrom plus a 2nd for Mark Stone, how highly rated was Brannstrom at the time? Pretty high end prospect IMO.

And that was with the Sens backed into a corner pretty much, because if they didn't deal him at that point (and to a team he was willing to sign an extension with) they were going to lose him for nothing as a pending UFA.

Flames might not be confident in re-signing Johnny (or maybe they are, I don't know??), but it's not an 11th hour situation here, so if someone wants to push to acquire JG, a very high end prospect and a 2nd round pick is the bare minimum of what might be considered an acceptable offer. I'd say you'd need to come in a lot heavier than that though.

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by TOfan

I’m sure teams will do their due diligence, but a lot can change in a year, or two.

The way I see it, as it relates to Buffalo, is JG would want to see how things play out. Is the team moving in the right direction? Does he like it there. Does he like the set up, the surroundings, and is their a chance to win? Essentially, the Sabres and JG would be dating. The rings not on the finger yet. I’d bet there would be a lot of questions and, if I’m Gaudreau, I’m saying ‘show me’. So yes, for a number of teams, there’s no guarantee JG is going to decide to stick around and all you have is two years.

If the Flames want to send him somewhere where it’s all but guaranteed he stays, that probably limits the suitors to Philadelphia, NJ, and maybe the NY teams.

Why should the flames care if he is all but guaranteed to stay?

They will take an offer if it is a home run from any team.

Again, from buffalo's perspective, as an example, if they think about it like they're courting gaudreau as you said, then they are NOT looking at it as, we get two years of this guy. They're looking at it as a potential franchise altering move. And if they don't think they can make the dating work, why bother in the first place?

It's been said, but this deal, if it happens this summer, will bring back a huge return. Bigger than what you're expecting. If it's not there, great, we'll have ourselves an elite point producing, line driving, in his prime, cheap LW for another year or 2. sounds awesome

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by New Era

This is silly and needs to stop. Teams trading for Gaudreau are NOT trading for just two years of Gaudreau. They will be trading for a player they believe will be a core player on their team for the next decade. Teams will do their due diligence and know if Johnny has interest in signing with them long-term. They will not make a trade for the return that Calgary will be demanding if they are not confident that Gaudreau will sign an extension at the end of his current deal.

Okay...but how many teams do you think can feel really confident about re-signing him?

Philly. Everyone else is going to have at least a bit of doubt.

And this is all before you consider the question of whether you even WANT to re-sign him.

Flames don't have as much leverage as you think.

Duchene to OTT is the comp here.

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Okay...but how many teams do you think can feel really confident about re-signing him?

Philly. Everyone else is going to have at least a bit of doubt.

And this is all before you consider the question of whether you even WANT to re-sign him.

Flames don't have as much leverage as you think.

Duchene to OTT is the comp here.

Everything about this post is wrong. The Duchene comp is laughable. His point totals in the 3 years leading up to being dealt were 55, 59 and 41. You could add two of those years together and not meat what Gaudreau got 2 years ago. Even this latest off year of Gaudreau's would have beaten those. It's hard to even take this seriously, tbh. Duchene asked for a trade... Gaudreau once, when asked, said it would be fun to play in his home town. He is an elite scorer, not a meh second line centre. If you want Duchene's comparable, it is Ryan Nugent Hopkins... I just threw up in my mouth. Duchene? Brutal

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Major Major

Why should the flames care if he is all but guaranteed to stay?

They will take an offer if it is a home run from any team.

Again, from buffalo's perspective, as an example, if they think about it like they're courting gaudreau as you said, then they are NOT looking at it as, we get two years of this guy. They're looking at it as a potential franchise altering move. And if they don't think they can make the dating work, why bother in the first place?

It's been said, but this deal, if it happens this summer, will bring back a huge return. Bigger than what you're expecting. If it's not there, great, we'll have ourselves an elite point producing, line driving, in his prime, cheap LW for another year or 2. sounds awesome

Why should the Flames care if he stays? I don’t know. They probably don’t.

Maybe you’re right. Why bother? Why would any team bother? If it’s a fore gone conclusion he’s only going to sign in Philadelphia, good luck getting much more than Voracheck and a pick. If that is the case, i agree with you’re last point, II would keep him, go after Hall, and push your chips in for a cup run for the next two years,

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Why should the Flames care if he stays? I don’t know. They probably don’t.

Maybe you’re right. Why bother? Why would any team bother? If it’s a fore gone conclusion he’s only going to sign in Philadelphia, good luck getting much more than Voracheck and a pick. If that is the case, i agree with you’re last point, II would keep him, go after Hall, and push your chips in for a cup run for the next two years,

This forgone conclusion is based on? If Johnny is traded to a team anywhere near home and has personal/team success, they'll be the favourite to sign him. It's not up to the flames to match make. You want him? Pay. You don't, sweet. There is no mediocre return. If no one wants him bad enough, he'll just stay. Pretty simple really. Do you have it as a forgone conclusion that Matthews will sign his next deal in Arizona? Bizarre take based on air.

[Crown Royal]

This 2 years of Gaudreau narrative is so ridiculous. 2 years in the NHL is a long time, and two years playing with Eichel could easily win him over if he is unsure. Not only that the Sabres are one of those teams that seems to overpay constantly for players, so Gaudreau could make out like a bandit.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Okay...but how many teams do you think can feel really confident about re-signing him?

I think Johnny wants to be close to home, so likely a short trip by car.

Philadelphia. Close to home and his family. Literally across the river.

New Jersey. 1.5 hours by car. A bit of an ugly drive at times, but easy to go see family or commute if he desires.

Rangers. As close as Jersey and same benefits.

Islanders. Two hour drive and a real pain in the ass to get to by car, but acceptable all the same.

Washington. 2.5 hours by car and a really easy drive.

Pittsburgh. Hour and ten minutes by plane or four and a half hours by car. Outsider IMO.

Buffalo. One hour and ten minutes by air and six hours by car. Outside possibility.

Boston. 1.5 hours by plane or 6.5 hours by car. Has connections to Beantown, so an outside possibility as well.

Columbus. One hour and thirty minutes by air and seven hours by car. Outside possibility.

Detroit. One hour and thirty minutes by plane and a numbing 9 hours by car. Not likely IMO.

Flames don't have as much leverage as you think.

They have all the leverage at the moment. Flames can send Gaudreau anywhere they want and let the risk lay with the team making the deal. They control that and the player has no say in that. Or they can just hold on to him and milk him for all he's worth, then dump him at the deadline for a bounty of futures, like when Duchene was dumped on Columbus.

Duchene to OTT is the comp here.

Nope. Duchene was traded to Ottawa during the season. That greatly restricts what teams are willing to give up. The best times to milk the most out of teams are at the draft, around free agency, and then at the deadline. Trading a player during the season is extremely difficult, especially if you have cap constraints. Also, Duchene was part of a three team deal, which makes the return worse. The Duchene to Ottawa deal is a terrible comparable.

[Crown Royal]

Actually the Duchene to OTT deal couple be comparable when you look at what the Avs got in return. They received a top 10 protected 1st, a 2nd, a 3rd, Shane Bowers who's a solid middle-six prospect, Samual Girard who was a good young defenseman with offensive upside, Vladislav Kamenev (a tweener) and Andrew Hammond (AHL goalie)

So the return of a top 10 protected first, a young player with a bunch of upside, a solid but not elite prospect and a couple additional picks could actually be a good starting point on a return

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

Actually the Duchene to OTT deal couple be comparable when you look at what the Avs got in return. They received a top 10 protected 1st, a 2nd, a 3rd, Shane Bowers who's a solid middle-six prospect, Samual Girard who was a good young defenseman with offensive upside, Vladislav Kamenev (a tweener) and Andrew Hammond (AHL goalie)

So the return of a top 10 protected first New Jersey 6OA, a young player with a bunch of upside Pavel Zacha, a solid but not elite prospect Jesper Boqvist and a couple additional picks Islanders 2nd 2021 could actually be a good starting point on a return

...

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Major Major

This forgone conclusion is based on? If Johnny is traded to a team anywhere near home and has personal/team success, they'll be the favourite to sign him. It's not up to the flames to match make. You want him? Pay. You don't, sweet. There is no mediocre return. If no one wants him bad enough, he'll just stay. Pretty simple really. Do you have it as a forgone conclusion that Matthews will sign his next deal in Arizona? Bizarre take based on air.

Matthews? I don’t know. Not terribly interested right now.

I’ve stated I think Cozens and Montour is fair value. Others see Cozens, 8OA/Reinhart and more as the return. In this case the a Flames add in my mind. But if the Flames can get those three pieces, awesome. You won’t catch me complaining.

I don’t see how Gaudreau contract status isn’t registering for some here. He has two years left on his deal and you could say he’s underpaid (although I would say, not this year). That’s it. He will soon have significant control as his NMC will be kicking in a year from now. That’s his contract. Unless something has changed in the current CBA, whoever holds his rights can’t sign a contract extension for one more year either. So nothing is guaranteed especially if the persistent speculation of his desire to play for the Flyers are accurate.

If you’re Buffalo, that’s the contract you would be acquiring and that’s why I don’t see them giving up as much as some others think. Especially because I doubt JG wouldn’t want to take his time and evaluate what’s going on in Buffalo and what his options are. In a certain sense they would be betting on themselves to convince him to stay. Ultimately a GM makes the trade on what you know on the day it’s made, not hopes and wishes.

Cozens was just ranked as the No.1 ranked prospect by Scott Wheeler in the Athletic. Sure, that’s just The opinion of one guy but suffice it to say, he’s one of the top prospects in hockey right now. He’s a big 19 year old RHS C with big offensive upside. He could be in your line up making significant contributions in 1-2 years. Where, or when, else are the Flames going to get that? They’ve been looking for a 1C since Nieuwendyk left.

So yeah, 2 years of Johnny Gaudreau is precisely what Buffalo would be acquiring. That or JG could land in Buffalo and think to himself ‘this is the best dump I’ve ever been to and the organization is dysfunctional, can’t wait to sign that extension in a year from now’.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

As a side effect of a potential Gaudreau trade, I'm actually excited to see Monahan play without him. I think that he has another gear he hasn't needed to use with Johnny always carrying the puck.

Your excitement would wear off very quickly. Anybody who wants to watch Monahan without Gaudreau can tune into the Winnipeg and Carolina games in October when Monahan was paired with Sam Bennett. I remember that line being absolutely dreadful and completely ineffective whereas the Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk line on the other hand looked excellent. Peters had to drop the line combo because it was basically a one line team.

If it was me, I’d like to find a way to recreate the chemistry of that line. Maybe Gaudreau on the left, Lindholm up the middle and another power forward with the same skillset as Tkachuk on the right. This team needs to get a little heavier along the wings IMO especially for the playoffs.

[Major Major]

You're the only one who said he's a forgone conclusion to sign anywhere. Is there a team out there who is not willing to bet on itself? An asset like gaudreau comes up what, once every year or two. The offers will be significant, BT knows how to extract value. If buffalo doesn't want to bet on itself with a guy like eichel at 1c, they might as well fold up shop. If they acquire gaudreau, they will be the odds on favourite to sign him to his next contract. If they don't bet on themselves, someone else will.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Your excitement would wear off very quickly. Anybody who wants to watch Monahan without Gaudreau can tune into the Winnipeg and Carolina games in October when Monahan was paired with Sam Bennett. I remember that line being absolutely dreadful and completely ineffective whereas the Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk line on the other hand looked excellent. Peters had to drop the line combo because it was basically a one line team.

If it was me, I’d like to find a way to recreate the chemistry of that line. Maybe Gaudreau on the left, Lindholm up the middle and another power forward with the same skillset as Tkachuk on the right. This team needs to get a little heavier along the wings IMO especially for the playoffs.

Well, to be fair (and you said it yourself), Monahan was saddled with Bennett. Pretty significant drop off there.

[Roof-Daddy]

Haha.

They took Gaudreau and Lindholm off of Monahan's line and gave him Bennett. There was a noticeable drop off...


Uh, well yeah....lol

[Sylvanfan]

Take Gaudreau away from Monahan and I don't think he would score 50 points and even 40 might be the limit. He might still get 20 goals, but he would be a lot more like the 34 point player he was in his rookie year than the guy he's been since.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Major Major

You're the only one who said he's a forgone conclusion to sign anywhere. Is there a team out there who is not willing to bet on itself? An asset like gaudreau comes up what, once every year or two. The offers will be significant, BT knows how to extract value. If buffalo doesn't want to bet on itself with a guy like eichel at 1c, they might as well fold up shop. If they acquire gaudreau, they will be the odds on favourite to sign him to his next contract. If they don't bet on themselves, someone else will.

To be honest, I’m not really sure what you’re trying to say here.

I said IF it’s a foregone conclusion JG is going to sign in Philadelphia....there’s a difference.

I’m sure there will be a lot of interest in Gaudreau and probably from some teams no one here is talking about. What about a Montreal? I think Treliving is a very strong GM all things considered. I’m confident he will make a good trade.

Not too sure how you can state that Buffalo would be the odds on favourite to sign him. Why? Cause he would be playing for them? If that’s the thinking, shouldn’t the Flames be the odds on favourite to sign him to an extension? If he gets traded to Buffalo and if they’re still a mess, my bet would be him leaving be it through a trade or walking out the door as a UFA. As it stands today, I think JG would want to see some significant improvement before he signs a deal. It’s up to hockey ops in Buffalo to make it so. I suspect it’s going to take more than JG to get it turned around which is also why I don’t see them spending enormous asset capital for one player who has two years left on his deal.