2011 Canadian Election Thread

[starseed]

Harper had some hilarious lies in the debates prepared, one of which was saying that more and more Canadians vote for his party. CPC votes dropped from 5.4MM to 5.2MM from '06 to '08.

[Slava]

Maybe someone in the government should learn how to cite quotations properly? This is getting ridiculous!

http://www.hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/view/125

[transplant99]

"For Michael Ignatieff, he was in it to win it. So he didn't win the debate, but it is impossible to say that he lost it, either," said Christian Bourque of Leger Marketing. "It was not Michael Ignatieff's big night."

In fact, among those who said the Liberals were their first choice before the debate, just 54% said they thought Ignatieff won the debate. One in five Liberal supporters said Layton was the winner.

By contrast, 77% of those who said they were voting Conservative thought Harper won the debate. About 12% of Tory supporters called Layton as the winner.

Ouch.

http://www.calgarysun.com/news/decis.../17973721.html

[transplant99]

Just skimming through all the various online editions of newspapers from coast to coast, the overwhelming sentiment is that Harper fared the best last night not because he was better than any of the others but because none of them were any better than him.

Sort of a boxing analogy in that no knock out punches came even close to landing and in fact never even made the knees weak.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Just skimming through all the various online editions of newspapers from coast to coast, the overwhelming sentiment is that Harper fared the best last night not because he was better than any of the others but because none of them were any better than him.

Sort of a boxing analogy in that no knock out punches came even close to landing and in fact never even made the knees weak.

ya, it was basically a non-event. I think that the debate is more exposure for the election overall as opposed to really changing things. Its got to be nearly impossible to sway voters when its basically two hours of rhetoric?

I still think that more debates would help that though; as the leaders got more comfortable in general the gloves might come off a bit?

[WilsonFourTwo]

My take on the debate:

1. Layton spent too much time trying for sound bites and ended up looking pretty dumb.
2. Ignatieff kept going for the knock-out, never quite connected.
3. Harper spent the night saying "That simply is not true" over and over again.

Like I've said before, I'm a (traditionally Conservative) undecided looking to choose a party worth supporting. While each leader had good and bad moments, Ignatieff actually scored the big points with me. I'm not sure I like the idea of Ignatieff as PM, but I do like a number of policy positions.

1. No Supermax Prisons and Mandatory Minimums (He's wrong on the Gun Registry though).
2. The Canadian Learning Passport (I will GLADLY accept a tax hike for it if necessary).
3. "It's not bickering, it debating".

As of today, if the Liberals actually make an effort in my riding, they will likely get my vote. So ya, the debate was actually worthwhile and did sway at least one voter.

[CaptainCrunch]

Well the Gloves have to come off tonight for Ignatieff, the french language debate is probably his last chance to get traction in Quebec where it sounds like he's failing badly. But on reflection, I wasn't all that enamoured with Ignatieff's efforts last night. While he did well in segments, his snapping at Layton with the basically "No chancee Mr Whalen" shout, Layton's expose on his attendance and voting record, and the fact that he came across as angrier then angry Stephen ever has hurt him. I also think that he's got to expand beyond the same 4 points that he hit on over and over again. He's going to have to sell his platform tonight, and maybe get away from the mad dog attacks.

Layton has to do more of the same, the same humor, the same folksy good home charm that he showed last night. I would expect a more directed stream at Ignatieff from Layton as he has a real chance to bury the Liberal's in Quebec.

Harper has to do more of the same, he's going to get hit with the exact same questions tonight. I'd like to see him take the offense a little more though.

Duceppe is in his native language so he should be more comfortable, because he didn't look comfortable last night. I would expect that he's going to hammer on Harper for the Atlantic Canada hydro loan guarantees, health care and immigration. But he has to take a different line on immigration because he looked slightly culturally intolerant last night.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Slava

ya, it was basically a non-event. I think that the debate is more exposure for the election overall as opposed to really changing things. Its got to be nearly impossible to sway voters when its basically two hours of rhetoric?

I still think that more debates would help that though; as the leaders got more comfortable in general the gloves might come off a bit?

i would have thought so as well until I read this in the Montreal gazette this morning.

John Wright is the senior vice president of Ipsos Reid and has been with the company for 23 years. He has served in the public affairs industry for three decades and has covered every major federal and provincial political campaign since 1989.

"Sixty per cent of voters have made up their minds before the election occurs, thirty per cent are usually influenced but make up their minds within two days after the debate and 10 per cent make up their minds in the voting booth.

As he points out though...this particular debate likely changed no ones mind.

[flambers]

I watched the debate I thought Ignatieff was the weakest of the 4.

They were clearly trying to damage Harper but all of the punches were missed.

I bet, the liberals will lose support.

NDP was fairly strong along with Harper.

Bloq was only a pain, he adds very little...

[crazy_eoj]

I think Stephen Harper was the clear winner last night, he was the only one who was remotely Prime Ministerial. He kept his calm and talked to Canadians about his party while keeping the mud slinging to a minimum.

Ignatieff had to be better than Harper to turn his party's fortunes, and instead he was seriously upstaged by Used Car Jack.

Conservative Majority with an NDP opposition coming up folks.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by transplant99

i would have thought so as well until I read this in the Montreal gazette this morning.




As he points out though...this particular debate likely changed no ones mind.

Debates are always battles for that percentage of undecided voters. The other voters are set whether through upbringing or laziness, or Political leanig and will not change.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

I think Stephen Harper was the clear winner last night, he was the only one who was remotely Prime Ministerial. He kept his calm and talked to Canadians about his party while keeping the mud slinging to a minimum.

Ignatieff had to be better than Harper to turn his party's fortunes, and instead he was seriously upstaged by Used Car Jack.

Conservative Majority with an NDP opposition coming up folks.

The majority is possible but the NDP winning enough seats to form official opposition is almso impossible unless something very very drastic changes. The debate certainly wasn't enough to cause that. For the Dippers to sit first chair on the losing side they would need to gain 40 seats on the liberals in some fashion and they simply do not have that kind of support.

Though I have no doubt they will have more seats than they did at disolution.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by transplant99

The majority is possible but the NDP winning enough seats to form official opposition is almso impossible unless something very very drastic changes. The debate certainly wasn't enough to cause that. For the Dippers to sit first chair on the losing side they would need to gain 40 seats on the liberals in some fashion and they simply do not have that kind of support.

Though I have no doubt they will have more seats than they did at disolution.

Agreed, I assume the Bloq will take a few of the seats from the Liberals. If Liberals took a fall the opposition would be the Bloq not the NDP in my opinion.

Out of the 4 parties, NDP would most likely have the fewest amount of seats.

However I would bet after the election the government still looks about the same Harper will have a minority, Liberals will be the opposition.... which could force another election in a short amount of time.

[J pold]

Jack Layton is street, yo.

[Slava]

The polls in Quebec over the last few days have the CPC/Lib in basically a dead heat for 2nd that I've seen. Thats the problem....its not that the Liberals are cratering there, so much as the federalists in general are splitting the vote so that the BQ will win seats. Duceppe hasn't been lights out either though, and he just benefits from that vote split.

Really, the same thing is happening in a lot of the country for the Conservatives. The other parties are splitting the vote and they have enough to win the seats.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Slava

The polls in Quebec over the last few days have the CPC/Lib in basically a dead heat for 2nd that I've seen. Thats the problem....its not that the Liberals are cratering there, so much as the federalists in general are splitting the vote so that the BQ will win seats. Duceppe hasn't been lights out either though, and he just benefits from that vote split.

Really, the same thing is happening in a lot of the country for the Conservatives. The other parties are splitting the vote and they have enough to win the seats.

The Libs could win every seat in Quebec and still not win the election. Beyond that they are looking like they will get annihalted there...some serious discontent with them among the QC voters.

They need Ontario..and big. Right now it looks weak there as well so I suspect we will see Ignatieff spending the vast majority of his time in Toronto and surrounding areas.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by transplant99

The Libs could win every seat in Quebec and still not win the election. Beyond that they are looking like they will get annihalted there...some serious discontent with them among the QC voters.

They need Ontario..and big. Right now it looks weak there as well so I suspect we will see Ignatieff spending the vast majority of his time in Toronto and surrounding areas.

Well the latest poll on www.threehundredeight.blogspot indicates a virtual dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives? What am I missing here?

Clearly the Liberals need Ontario; thats not exactly going out on a limb! They aren't going to steamroll through the West. The Conservatives need Ontario as well though. Without seats there they aren't hitting majority territory either.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well the latest poll on www.threehundredeight.blogspot indicates a virtual dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives? What am I missing here?

Clearly the Liberals need Ontario; thats not exactly going out on a limb! They aren't going to steamroll through the West. The Conservatives need Ontario as well though. Without seats there they aren't hitting majority territory either.

Virtual dead heat? What am I missing?

It says a 7 point lead which is significant at this point and more importantly the seat breakdown has the Tories up 56-35. If a couple of those or the ones trending to the NDP change over to the Tories...its a majority.

[Slava]

I don't get it? Quebec shows the CPC at 20.7% and the Liberals at 20.4%. if you really want to be annoying you can point out the 0.4% lead and you're right?

The projected seat totals are 13 Liberals, 11 CPC and 50 BQ for whatever those projections are worth.

[Slava]

^ I think that you are talking about Ontario and I thought that we were talking about Quebec still...