2010 Blue Jays Season Thread

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Matty81

Why would you buy his arbitration years at such a high rate if he was under team control anyway? Did they purchase a couple years of free agency too?

they bought his first year of free agency

[Pagal4321]

While I am, and have always been, very high on Romero. This deal really is a head scratcher for me, why do you only buy one year of free agency with it?

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Matty81

Why would you buy his arbitration years at such a high rate if he was under team control anyway? Did they purchase a couple years of free agency too?

The way pitching salaries are trending those last couple of arbitration years could be pretty high cost, go forward 5 years and it could be 12 million a year that final season. This way you fix your costs going forward and can plan the budget for the rest of your team around that.

[moon]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

I'll admit I'm not as high on a guy like Brandon Morrow as some others on the board are, but the Jays team as a whole do have some positives to build around - especially for the pitching staff.

So what is "really going on here", moon?

I would say they have more than some positives to build around and could be competing for the wild card in the next 2-3 years.

Originally Posted by Gozer

I won't comment on this until moon states unequivocally what the right answer is.

The right answer is that it is a pretty good deal for both sides.

Originally Posted by Gozer

For those that didn't read the link, "not anywhere close to" has exactly one player ranked between their respective scores.

At a glance, Morrow has better strikeout and home run numbers, which are (and should be) valued greatly regarding the "wins added" from a pitcher.

Not sure where the not anywhere close to comment is from but since strikeouts, groundouts and flyouts all count the same having them valued greatly doesn't make a ton of sense. Since Carpenter doesn't allow a lot of guys on base it doesn't matter how he gets them out, he just gets them out and is a lot better at it than Morrow is.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by moon

Not sure where the not anywhere close to comment is from ...

From this:
I don't love a stat that tries to tell me that he is having anywhere close to ... [the] season [of] Chris Carpenter.
which I quoted in the post. Perhaps I misunderstood, but I don't see how.

Originally Posted by moon

strikeouts, groundouts and flyouts all count the same having them valued greatly doesn't make a ton of sense.

Because ground and fly outs require other players. Home runs surrendered and strikeouts thrown are independent of team defense and other factors beyond the players control.
-I went looking for support for that argument, but can't be bothered to read through the formulas at fangraphs, so the K,HR thing might be bunk.

But Morrow has a fantastic WAR regardless.

[Kelekin]

A couple years ago I would have never EVER thought Romero would get a contract. I mean, this is a guy who couldn't even figure out AA. He had a career 5 ERA in Double-A, and was just completely unimpressive at every stop in the minors.

Romero's ERA should have been around 5 last year based on his WHIP, but his numbers this year are quite respectable. Part of me thinks this is a terrible idea because he has no proven track record and you are only taking 1, potentially 2 of his FA years. But at the same time, if he pitches -at least- at the level he pitches now, it's a good deal.

I don't really see this as a win, but I also don't see this as a loss. I think it'll be an either/or based on how he is over the next five years.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Kelekin

A couple years ago I would have never EVER thought Romero would get a contract. I mean, this is a guy who couldn't even figure out AA. He had a career 5 ERA in Double-A, and was just completely unimpressive at every stop in the minors.

Romero's ERA should have been around 5 last year based on his WHIP, but his numbers this year are quite respectable. Part of me thinks this is a terrible idea because he has no proven track record and you are only taking 1, potentially 2 of his FA years. But at the same time, if he pitches -at least- at the level he pitches now, it's a good deal.

I don't really see this as a win, but I also don't see this as a loss. I think it'll be an either/or based on how he is over the next five years.

Hopefully with this contract the coaches will really work hard on him and he'll improve even more. And if it doesn't work out it is not an insane contract that's untradable.

I like the deal, gotta keep the starting rotation in tact. (Marcum, Cecil, Morrow, Romero)

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

And if it doesn't work out it is not an insane contract that's untradable.

Honestly, I would consider this contract fairly close to "best case scenario"...

I agree with Kelekin actually, this guy always had potential, but looked completely lost at AA. Even on draft day though, he was never pegged as a #1 guy though, he was always considered a 2-3.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by moon

Not sure where the not anywhere close to comment is from but since strikeouts, groundouts and flyouts all count the same having them valued greatly doesn't make a ton of sense.

Not true.

Strikeouts are considered valuable because they don't move runners.

Groundouts in certain situations are considered valuable because they have the potential to induce double plays, but can still move runners.

Flyouts are considered the least productive, since there is a potential for the runners to move/score and have an almost non existent chance of inducing a DP.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Kelekin

A couple years ago I would have never EVER thought Romero would get a contract. I mean, this is a guy who couldn't even figure out AA. He had a career 5 ERA in Double-A, and was just completely unimpressive at every stop in the minors.

Romero's ERA should have been around 5 last year based on his WHIP, but his numbers this year are quite respectable. Part of me thinks this is a terrible idea because he has no proven track record and you are only taking 1, potentially 2 of his FA years. But at the same time, if he pitches -at least- at the level he pitches now, it's a good deal.

I don't really see this as a win, but I also don't see this as a loss. I think it'll be an either/or based on how he is over the next five years.

Wow, Romero has great stuff, he has streadly improved. This year he has been really good. Personally I view him as a #2 starter. Its a really good signing compared to the price tag on other #2 starters in the league

As for the other poster, Romero is very tradable. Jays could move a young guy like Romero with ease.

[Antithesis]

Nice win for the Jays today to - finally - take a series from the Angels this season. Unfortunately, it seems as though the next three games are on the as-yet unavailable Sportsnet One.

[moon]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

Not true.

Strikeouts are considered valuable because they don't move runners.

Groundouts in certain situations are considered valuable because they have the potential to induce double plays, but can still move runners.

Flyouts are considered the least productive, since there is a potential for the runners to move/score and have an almost non existent chance of inducing a DP.

That is only true if you allow runners on base and then into scoring position.

Carpenter can afford to rely on groundouts because he doesn't allow a lot of guys on base.

It doesn't really matter as we don't need stats to know that Carpenter is a much better pitcher than Morrow and having a much better season.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by Gozer

Because ground and fly outs require other players. Home runs surrendered and strikeouts thrown are independent of team defense and other factors beyond the players control.
-I went looking for support for that argument, but can't be bothered to read through the formulas at fangraphs, so the K,HR thing might be bunk.

But Morrow has a fantastic WAR regardless.

Here's the first article written about the subject: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...?articleid=878

It pretty much shook up the baseball world when it came out.

And it's pretty much consensus at this point that the key things to look at for any pitcher are his ability to get strikeouts, not walk guys, and not give up home runs. The things that are entirely in the pitchers control. There's a very good stat called FIP that rates pitchers entirely based on those 3 outcomes.

There is still ongoing analysis on whether pitchers can consistently control line drive/ground ball/fly ball rates, but there isn't really enough data to make conclusions as the MLB only recently started recording if a hit was a LD/GB/FB.

[Caged Great]

Today`s the deadline for this. The Jays signed 17th round pick Myles Jaye so far

RHP

1st - Deck McGuire - Signed
4th - Sam Dyson - Signed
10th - Tyler Shreve
17th - Myles Jaye - Signed
21st - Chris Marlowe
25th - Brando Tessar
28th - Adaric Kelly
31st - Luis Benitez
36th - David Whitehead
37th - Chad Green
39th - Nick Vander Tuig
46th - Connor Smith
47th - Gabriel Romero

LHP

8th - Logan Ehlers - Will not sign
13th - Tyler Painton
43rd - Ronald Schreurs

Catchers

27th - Eric Arce
48th - Nick Studer
50th - Kelly Norris-Jones

2nd Base

44th - Mott Hyde

Short Stop

9th - Brandon Mims - signed

3rd Base

18th - Kris Bryant
41st - Seth Conner

OF

12th - Omar Cotto
22nd - Aaron Westlake
45th - Phil Diedrick
__________________

[JayP]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Today`s the deadline for this. The Jays signed 17th round pick Myles Jaye so far

Any idea on the latest speculation of the Jays chances of signing McGuire?

[Caged Great]

They think Dyson and Mcguire will sign later on in the day.

Shreve, Ehlers, Painton, Mims are all 50-50 more or less.

Bryant and Cotto are extremely doubtful

Everyone that was drafted after round 20 are probably not going to sign, but who knows.

[Jason14h]

For all us shaw people, is there anywhere to stream the game?

[Caged Great]

nm

[Jason14h]

No hitter through 6, Sure would be nice to watch!

[Machiavelli]

I'm glad it was broken up in the 7th and not, for example, the last out of the game.