WCR2: Edmonton Oilers (P3) vs Vegas Golden Knights (P1) - Oilers win 4-1

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by Shazam

Your words are true but they disgust me.

Trust me I disgust myself for typing it.

Yes I’ve anointed them cup champs already but that’s a coping mechanism.

But when I really think about it and talk honestly about what I see, I can’t help but acknowledge that this Oilers team looks elite.

I think a series vs Dallas will be a good measuring stick for both clubs. How good is this oilers team really? How good is their D and goaltending? Can Mcdavid and Drai produce like they did last year? Will the depth players continue to score? They still need a lot of things to go right.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Trust me I disgust myself for typing it.

Yes I’ve anointed them cup champs already but that’s a coping mechanism.

But when I really think about it and talk honestly about what I see, I can’t help but acknowledge that this Oilers team looks elite.

I think a series vs Dallas will be a good measuring stick for both clubs. How good is this oilers team really? How good is their D and goaltending? Can Mcdavid and Drai produce like they did last year? Will the depth players continue to score? They still need a lot of things to go right.

While I agree with a lot of what you said:

- Broberg and Holloway were huge factors in the Oilers/Stars series last year. Those two are gone.
- Otter is still better than Skinner or Pickard. Stars just need to show up and show pressure.
- Rantanen is a new face in Dallas, he was a monster with Colorado in 2022 against Edmonton.

I have hope Dallas can get it done, it’s just a matter IF they do it. I think Edmonton is very good at playing the come back game, just shut them down.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by dino7c

The Stars top scorer from the reg season has played 3 playoff games.

One question, yes or no. Are the Avs/Jets better than the Kings/Knights. Yes or no not 10 paragraphs about how great the Oilers are.

Push?

Jets had 6 more points than the Knights, but the Knights had 3 more regulation time wins.
Kings had 3 more points than the Avalanche, and 3 more regulation time wins.

[littlereddevil]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

You ever heard of getting goalied in the playoffs?

They might be looking better against the Jets but they got dominated by the Avs in their series.

Dallas is doing what Edmonton always got called out for being carried by 1 player. Now Edmonton is having their old crappy depth score.

Putting up 20 shots a game wont cut it. Everyone cries about no one shooting on the bums Edmonton has now Skinner has his confidence back with back to back shutout wins.

Any team would be hard pressed to win the Stanley Cup without elite goaltending. There are far less teams that win with subpar goaltending than above average.

Do you not think Tampa Bay didn't win those 3 SCs without Khabibulin and Vasilevskiy carrying them? Pittsburgh winning thanks to Fleury? LA winning thanks to Quick? Sure they had the elite talent up front but that's less important especially when the checking and defensive pressure gets tighter.

I find it a strange argument that relying on goaltending is somehow a bad thing in the playoffs.

It remains to be seen if Oettinger will carry forward his great postseason play, but I'll give credit where credit is due. I think most of us thought that Swiss cheese defense of the Oilers would be exposed in these playoffs but they've exceeded all expectations and are making Skinner and Pickard look better than they are. And maybe that's all the Oilers actually need to win it all, is just for them to not be a liability.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by kevman

Push?

Jets had 6 more points than the Knights, but the Knights had 3 more regulation time wins.
Kings had 3 more points than the Avalanche, and 3 more regulation time wins.

The Avs played the first quarter of the year without a goalie, they were a different team after that.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dino7c

The Avs played the first quarter of the year without a goalie, they were a different team after that.

Coming into the playoffs I would have said Vegas was better than the Jets and Avs personally. Jets I just never trusted that overachieving roster, and Avs made some questionable moves down the stretch.

I also thought the Kings were good, but Oilers are just in their head mentally.

If you look at the last 41 games:

Jets: .732 points, 54.6% xGF
Kings: .634, 53.7% xGF
Avs: .622, 53.8% xGF
Stars: .622, 47.2% xGF
Knights: .622, 54.2% xGF

Oilers: .585, 54.5% xGF

All 5 of those teams are pretty close. Dallas stumbled down the stretch with injuries so that skews things a little, but all 5 of those teams are pretty close.

In the end the Oilers have really taken it to the competition their last 9 games:

8-1-0
59.0% xGF 5v5
25-14 GF 5v5
61.0% xGF All Situations
37 GF - 22 GA All Situations

They ran over LA and Vegas the last 9 games and it's not becasue those teams were bad teams, because they weren't.

Edmonton has found another level, especially when it comes to the underlying possession. And Dallas is going to be in tough because it's not really their strong suit.

Downplay them all you want but that's a good team in Edmonton. They started slow and the Kings let them off the hook - but they've figured it out since then. And the scariest part is that McDavid hasn't even done his superhuman thing in the playoffs yet - 17 points in 11 games (1.55 P/G) is actually below his normal playoff P/GP from the last 3 seasons (1.80 P/G)

[kevman]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Coming into the playoffs I would have said Vegas was better than the Jets and Avs personally. Jets I just never trusted that overachieving roster, and Avs made some questionable moves down the stretch.

I also thought the Kings were good, but Oilers are just in their head mentally.

If you look at the last 41 games:

Jets: .732 points, 54.6% xGF
Kings: .634, 53.7% xGF
Avs: .622, 53.8% xGF
Stars: .622, 47.2% xGF
Knights: .622, 54.2% xGF

Oilers: .585, 54.5% xGF

All 5 of those teams are pretty close. Dallas stumbled down the stretch with injuries so that skews things a little, but all 5 of those teams are pretty close.

In the end the Oilers have really taken it to the competition their last 9 games:

8-1-0
59.0% xGF 5v5
25-14 GF 5v5
61.0% xGF All Situations
37 GF - 22 GA All Situations

They ran over LA and Vegas the last 9 games and it's not becasue those teams were bad teams, because they weren't.

Edmonton has found another level, especially when it comes to the underlying possession. And Dallas is going to be in tough because it's not really their strong suit.

Downplay them all you want but that's a good team in Edmonton. They started slow and the Kings let them off the hook - but they've figured it out since then. And the scariest part is that McDavid hasn't even done his superhuman thing in the playoffs yet - 17 points in 11 games (1.55 P/G) is actually below his normal playoff P/GP from the last 3 seasons (1.80 P/G)

The Oilers stumbled into the playoffs a bit this year and their possession stats are down from where they were last year. They also moved out some key pieces and replaced them with aging vets. They never addressed their goaltending and they're without their top defender.

But then they won game 3 against LA and never looked back. The Oilers just shut out one of the leagues best teams, back to back, in an elimination game, at home, without their top defender, and with Skinner in net. Knobloch has them playing greater than the sum of their parts right now. How long that lasts? I don't know. But they only need to continue this for another dozen or so games.

Edit: It's worth adding to your stats that the gap between Edmonton being the top xGF% team this playoffs and Dallas being one of the worst had a lot of influence from the first round. In round two, the Edmonton Vegas series was the closest. With Florida, Dallas and Carolina leading the way.

[Itse]

It's absolutely possible that the Oilers win the cup, obviously, and teams do sometimes outplay what they look like on paper, and teams can go on streaks, etc etc.

Thing is, the playoffs are long. Hot streaks tend to end, average goalies end up losing games on their own, and good teams find ways to turn a series around.

Good teams also find ways to win games where they are "getting outplayed". That's a huge part of what separates good teams from the rest. Oilers look like the favorites now, but it also wouldn't be any kind of a shock if the Oilers just crash down to earth and lose the next series in 5.

The Panthers have a cup because they didn’t need a hot streak to beat the Oiler, in the last game they just were exactly as clearly better as they looked like on paper. That's just how these stories almost always go.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

What makes no sense is them getting objectively worse from last year but winning it this year.

No. I don't buy it. There's a better team still in the hunt.

Not gonna be fooled by two utterly terrible craterings by Pacific teams (who seem to be regular season darlings of late).

[dino7c]

IDK, I didn't see many picking Vegas or LA for the cup...but now the Oilers beating them they were great teams and basically conceeding the cup to the Oilers.
Panic if you like, I'm pretty relaxed...strange things happen but the Stars, Jets, Canes, Panthers are all better teams IMO.
Regular season points aren't really an argument for me there are so many factors...I don't think the caps are great and they were 2nd. I mean the Flames are two points back of the Panthers by that logic.

The Dallas team playing right now is far better than the roster they ran with most of the year. Rantanen, Granlund, Heiskanen weren't on the ice for the majority of their season. LA always losses to Edmonton and the Knights were probably a CM offside call away from losing to the Wild.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

If the Panthers are healthy i take them again over the Oilers easily. They play the way you need to beat teams like the no goods. Aggressive, skating in straight lines, and walking that line with punishing physicality. And elite shutdown centers to counter their shallow talent.

Dallas has a coin flip chance in my mind, which is still pretty good. I think the margin will be narrow whichever way it goes.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Who cares if Dallas has the better roster, they are not a good possession team as I have said now SuperMatt countless times and the Oilers rolled better possession teams.

Dallas got by because Colorado had a sieve in net once again and got goalied. This is why I said in that series thread I wanted Colorado to stomp them quickly because if anyone had the best chance of taking out Edmonton if LA faltered it was Colorado. Colorado has the team speed and top end players to bait the Oilers into a line rush game and beat them.

Edmonton keeps drawing the best possible matchups for them. Dallas will be hard pressed to do much with a Oiler team rolling into town on a tear against better possession teams.

[direwolf]

Everybody relax. The Oilers ain’t winning s***.

[SuperMatt18]

Florida does look like the best playoff team again.

Carolina is playing well but doesn't have the talent Florida does when Florida is at their best.

I think Dallas/Edmonton could be a toss up. My worry is can Dallas get over their conference finals demons. It was an extremely close series last year and special teams was the difference (Oilers +4 on their PP, Stars -1 on their PP).

I worry about the Stars d-core a little - especially if Heiskanen isn't 100% and they haven't been great possession wise in the playoffs.

In the end if the Oilers can get past the Stars, and then Panthers then they earned it.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

If it's a rematch we'll need to order new friendship tour billboard ads.

Tkachuk ending the Mcdavid era in Edmonton would be a beautiful thing to hold over their heads.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Edmonton has found another level, especially when it comes to the underlying possession. And Dallas is going to be in tough because it's not really their strong suit.

Downplay them all you want but that's a good team in Edmonton. They started slow and the Kings let them off the hook - but they've figured it out since then. And the scariest part is that McDavid hasn't even done his superhuman thing in the playoffs yet - 17 points in 11 games (1.55 P/G) is actually below his normal playoff P/GP from the last 3 seasons (1.80 P/G)

The way they played the last 2 games of this Vegas series...I don't like to admit it, but that's hockey that wins in the playoffs. They're getting contributions from all of their forwards, and they are not giving up much. It's like they've realized that this is what made Florida go from team Tampa Bay put away with ease...to team that puts Tampa Bay to bed in 5 games.

That version of Edmonton is the one team left who might be able to beat Florida if I try to look at it objectively.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Who cares if Dallas has the better roster, they are not a good possession team as I have said now SuperMatt countless times and the Oilers rolled better possession teams.

Dallas got by because Colorado had a sieve in net once again and got goalied. This is why I said in that series thread I wanted Colorado to stomp them quickly because if anyone had the best chance of taking out Edmonton if LA faltered it was Colorado. Colorado has the team speed and top end players to bait the Oilers into a line rush game and beat them.

Edmonton keeps drawing the best possible matchups for them. Dallas will be hard pressed to do much with a Oiler team rolling into town on a tear against better possession teams.

You have been so right about the Stars so far lol, hopefully that continues
Dallas played round one without their #1 dman and #1 scorer from the regular season...BOTH ARE BACK

Does anyone think Vegas played their best these playoffs? in either round?

[Paulie Walnuts]

What #1 scorer are you going on about> Robertson? He has 14 goals in 49 playoff games, he is a ghost of a player as I have seen.

I can't even remember i fhe played in the series vs the Flames.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

What #1 scorer are you going on about> Robertson? He has 14 goals in 49 playoff games, he is a ghost of a player as I have seen.

I can't even remember i fhe played in the series vs the Flames.

He was second in points for the Stars that series (4 points in 7 games, 2 points behind Joe P). It was his sophomore season.

The next year he was second as well, but had 18 points in 19 games.

The next year he tied for the lead with 16 in 19.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

What #1 scorer are you going on about> Robertson? He has 14 goals in 49 playoff games, he is a ghost of a player as I have seen.

I can't even remember i fhe played in the series vs the Flames.

Can't read? I literally said they were missing their top scorer from the regular season in round one. You are also doing your usual spin...guy has 39 points in 49 playoff games. That isn't bad for a guy his age. It is certainly someone that would be missed in a series.

Nate himself said "they were missing their best dman and top scorer and we still couldnt beat them"